Model X Tally

[Earlian]

Thanks vor the Update, too.

One adjustment: Europe passed a total of 3672 on November 19th.
No new Numbers known for December not from Germany, not from Norway, seems they all ordered the D.

If anybody did a European reservation with a higher number, now is the time to tell us

 

[chickensevil]

I would like to throw out that I don't think we are being fair to the tally by just assuming only a 15% cancellation rate... for those who are trying to get a good guess. The reason being we have all the same reasons people would have canceled the MS the first go around AND we have at least two other factors that would drive a cancellation: "Got tired of waiting for the MX and ordered and MS" and the all important "The Dual Motor MS gives me what I need and I can get it now, vice waiting for the MX". I would say 20-25% would not be surprising to me at all for a cancellation rate/true backlog estimate.

I don't say this to make anyone afraid of MX reservations, just that I would think the real number is closer to 15k vice 20k. Either way clearly 2015 production is sold out. And I am sure that demand will spike again once they finally reveal the final (or nearly final) product and give a price tag to it. But I am just hoping to help set expectations appropriately.

 

[flankspeed8]

I would like to throw out that I don't think we are being fair to the tally by just assuming only a 15% cancellation rate... for those who are trying to get a good guess. The reason being we have all the same reasons people would have canceled the MS the first go around AND we have at least two other factors that would drive a cancellation: "Got tired of waiting for the MX and ordered and MS" and the all important "The Dual Motor MS gives me what I need and I can get it now, vice waiting for the MX". I would say 20-25% would not be surprising to me at all for a cancellation rate/true backlog estimate.

I don't say this to make anyone afraid of MX reservations, just that I would think the real number is closer to 15k vice 20k. Either way clearly 2015 production is sold out. And I am sure that demand will spike again once they finally reveal the final (or nearly final) product and give a price tag to it. But I am just hoping to help set expectations appropriately.

Does TSLA not report Model X reservation tally during earnings release? If so, wouldn't they then be removing cancellations? How are MX deposits accounted for on their balance sheet? Would that be a way to extrapolate?

 

[chickensevil]

Does TSLA not report Model X order tally during earnings release? If so, wouldn't they then be removing cancellations? How are MX deposits accounted for on their balance sheet? Would that be a way to extrapolate?

It is all lumped into "Customer Deposits" Which includes the MX data as well as the MS 2500$ fee as well as people who are within their 2 weeks out from delivery who go ahead and pay for the car, and other things like how China customers have to fork out something like 20k before Tesla will actually import the car. So it has gotten harder and harder to get a solid guess out of those numbers because of all the variables.

So no... Tesla isn't really reporting that information in a clear fashion.

 

[Earlian]

@chickensevil
Don't wake up the slightly buried devil, who know tells me: He is right, a lot of guys dropped of and know you'll get your MX (European #P~2k) in 2015.

I shall not believe it this time, I shall not believe, I shall not....

 

[Muzzman1]

I'm already a Proud owner of a Model S, and I just put my deposit down on an X. Reservation seq #15431

LA CA

 

[Paul Carter]

I'm already a Proud owner of a Model S, and I just put my deposit down on an X. Reservation seq #15431

LA CA

Congrats! Having the S certainly is helping my wait.

 

[lodenthal]

I can't wait for my Model X though I am grateful for these last two years with my Model S. My hubby is happy as he won't have to "borrow" the Model S once we get the 2nd car...

 

[Twiddler]

Could not find the perfect thread for this post, so I guess it will go here. My question is - how many MX reservations are being re-thought after the dip in the stock? The irony being that the MX was delayed in order to produce the best vehicle possible (and let's face it, b/c Tesla is already supply constrained). The drop in the stock price, which I personally feel is at least in part due to the Model X delays, has certainly impacted the excess funds that many true believers had. Further, during a drop that one feels to be unwarranted, the correct action should be buying, not selling. Now, many profess to have a longer-term horizon, and that was the right plan in retrospect, but those with the highest % gains over the last few years (and I feel somewhat more likely to plunk down a deposit) were those with nearer-term strategies. Just a thought, as I continue to refresh TMC hoping for evidence of a MX reveal (as I have been doing since March 2014).

 

[MikeL]

Warning off topic TSLA moves on news. It WILL jump again, probably soon. If it's $200 my loan will be more, $300? loan will be less. Yes, I am selling stock to buy -about half of- the car. My guess is that there is more cannibalization (no matter) from the D release than cancellations from a lower stock price.

 

[bonaire]

@MikeL - what about selling some covered calls to make extra money on your shares? You do that well above the trading point it is at now and out far enough to hopefully expire worthless and you pocket the amount sold-for. I can't see owning TSLA without being involved in some well-planned covered call selling.

 

[MikeL]

@bonaire - almost exactly 2 years ago, I decided I wanted to own some TSLA so I scrounged up a little cash and opened an account. Doing some retro-math, I now realize that had I known even just the bare rudiments of options trading, I could have made A LOT of money in 2013 alone. Retirement money, 8 or 10 Model S's money and a Model X reservation or two for good measure (does that make this post "on topic" ) but instead, I bought some shares & went back to work.

Still, I suppose it's not too late now, right?! Tesla is taking over - it will just take a little longer Like my X delivery
now THAT's on topic . . . wait, which thread is this ?

 

[scottf200]

I just wanted to point out that anyone who wants to try the latest "developer" version can get it from from jpasqua/VisibleTesla · GitHub - of course you will need to build it yourself.

Which has nothing to do with:

Thread: Model X Tally

 

[MSMX2014]

Last week I overheard someone from Tesla (appeared to be an executive or maybe an engineer) talking on his mobile phone during a business call. He said that they have 25,000 Model X reservations. It was in a very affluent area of northern CA. The guy crossed right in front of me while I was walking with my family down the sidewalk and made the statement, "...yes, 25,000 X's have been reserved...". Then he said something about the P85D and Tesla so that's how I put it together.

 

[chickensevil]

Last week I overheard someone from Tesla (appeared to be an executive or maybe an engineer) talking on his mobile phone during a business call. He said that they have 25,000 Model X reservations. It was in a very affluent area of northern CA. The guy crossed right in front of me while I was walking with my family down the sidewalk and made the statement, "...yes, 25,000 X's have been reserved...". Then he said something about the P85D and Tesla so that's how I put it together.

If that's true... And that's a big IF that number does not include cancelations. There is no way. Unless their reservation numbers are totally meaningless, which even if they were it would lean toward number inflation (like Vin counting) as opposed to under the number.

 

[Svenssons]

My guess is that 25k reservations is not the exact number, just rounded to closest 5k and it could be that he had looked at this page and post #2 in this thread:

Type	USA​	Canada	NA[SUP]2[/SUP]		Europe[SUP]3[/SUP]		China	Hong Kong	Japan	Australia	Asia Pacific​		Global Total ​
Signature (S)	1,356	49	1,405		588		-	-	-	-	0		1,993
Production (P)	15,638	967	16,605		3,084		2,345	94	-	15	2,454		22,100
Totals	16,994	1,016	18,010		3,672		2,345	94	-	15	2,454		24,136

We do not know how many cancellations Tesla got but it should be some because of the D. However, remember also that all Tesla stores around the globe need one or two demo cars.

 

[chickensevil]

My guess is that 25k reservations is not the exact number, just rounded to closest 5k and it could be that he had looked at this page and post #2 in this thread:

Totals

16,994

1,016

18,010

3,672

2,345

94

-

15

2,454

24,136

We do not know how many cancellations Tesla got but it should be some because of the D. However, remember also that all Tesla stores need one or two demo cars.

Not sure what you are trying to imply with the demo cars... That hurts the 25k number no matter how you soon it... It doesn't help.

 

[Svenssons]

Demo cars will not be among the reservations made by the public. If it was a Tesla executive handling the productions of Model X his reservations might not be the same as only reservations made by the public but reservation for cars to produce (public reservations + cars for showrooms, stores etc).

We now that at least 24,136 people have reserved a Model X and this is pretty close to 25,000. This number could be from this site if he was not an insider executive. Yes, we also know that people have canceled their reservations but no one except an insider executive would know this number. About 25k reservations is what we know.

 

[Paul Carter]

Demo cars will not be among the reservations made by the public. If it was a Tesla executive handling the productions of Model X his reservations might not be the same as only reservations made by the public but reservation for cars to produce (public reservations + cars for showrooms, stores etc).

We now that at least 24,136 people have reserved a Model X and this is pretty close to 25,000. This number could be from this site if he was not an insider executive. Yes, we also know that people have canceled their reservations but no one except an insider executive would know this number. About 25k reservations is what we know.

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Based on Elon's comments in a Fox interview mid September, the tally was said to be between 15 and 20 thousand. So this tally maybe over by 7.5% to as much as 43%. My current guess would be that's it's 20% over best case and more likely over by 30%. The D certainly seems to be taking a bite out of it.

[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]reference: http://www.techinsider.net/elon-mus...uce-500000-cars-annually-by-2020/1116877.html. [/FONT]This article has the video at the bottom. At the 3 minute mark he responds to the Tally Question

 

[Svenssons]

Based on Elon's comments in a Fox interview mid September, the tally was said to be between 15 and 20 thousand. So this tally maybe over by 7.5% to as much as 43%. My current guess would be that's it's 20% over best case and more likely over by 30%. The D certainly seems to be taking a bite out of it.


reference: http://www.techinsider.net/elon-mus...uce-500000-cars-annually-by-2020/1116877.html. This article has the video at the bottom. At the 3 minute mark he responds to the Tally Question

Yes, the D certainly took a bite out from the Model X reservations but it's hard to know exactly how big bite. Our tally on Sept. 15:th including cancellations was this:

Global

20,670

Then Elon said "fiteen thousandish range maybe twenty thousandish" it was as an answer to the question "Which is how many?" referring to "next year production". 15k-20kish is the number of cars Elon thought could be produced during 2015, not the tally for mid September 2014. It does not say exactly how many reservations excluding cancellations of Model X that existed mid-september 2014.