The numbers are close to 2014 - you just happened to use the Single (or Marred Filing Separate) tax table column to find $46,550, but then you added the joint standard deduction. Because the $46,550 was for Single, you'd add $6200+$3950 to get that min income. For Married Filing Joint you'd need $56,100 in taxable income to generate $7500 in taxes (from the tax table), so then you add $12400+2*$3950 assuming you're both not dependents.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
oh, did I do a cross column error, that'd sure make it wrong. I just looked and you are right I did look across to the wrong column kudos for finding the error. Now I know why your numbers looked wrong, I had the wrong numbers in my head.
Looking back at it I made the error by writing the post using the single numbers first. Then shifting to the couple numbers and not correcting the entire post. I felt 2 was closer to the average family size and a better way to discuss it but I should have checked my math better when I went to present it in a different way.
OK so you say the 2015 single number is $57,250 and the number for a simple couple should be $77,000 for 2015 and $76,400 for my example from the year before?
------------
No sir, I used a deduction, see above for what I did wrong.
Last edited:
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You are assuming several things that may not be correct.
- Will someone buying a S/X in 2018 and reserving a 3 be ahead of me placing my order on 31st ? In that case, we have to deal with 150k S/X owners wanting a 3 - not 65k.
- Will a S/X owner with base or moderate options be ahead of a non-owner with slightly higher options ? How about much higher set of options ?
- How many 3s can a S/X owner reserve ? Will all those be ahead in the queue ? Will it be one 3 reservation per Tesla ownership ? Depending on the answers you can't subtract doubled up owners. What if in a doubled up family the 2 Teslas are owned by different adults and they separately book 3 ?
chickensevil
Active Member
Hey thanks for the slight correction. That I missed that with my estimates I posted. So that is even more good news that those not ordering the top optioned cars can get some tax credit. Hopefully Tesla has the foresight of keeping tabs on this such that they push us into the 200k mark right at the beginning of a quarter so we get essentially two extra quarters of sales. If that is the case this would push my estimates back and extra two quarters of deliveries.
This would be:
Q1: 20k (but just under the threshold to push us over 200k total)
Q2: 25k (break 200k)
Q3: 30k
Q4: 40k (reduced to 50%)
Q1: 40k
Q2: 50k (reduced to 25%)
Q3: 60k
Q4: 80k no more credits. (Insert coin)
Yes, these are all rough guesses on production ramp, it could go faster or slower. Note that is looking at:
2018: 105k M3 200k S/X
2019: 220k M3 200k S/X
2020: 500k+ deliveries combined
I think these are relatively fair estimates is Tesla can stick to their guidelines of 500k sales in 2020. Also note that I am just assuming that S/X is arbitrarily capped at 200k combined. This seems like a decent market cap for them to peak at. In the scope of calculating the tax credits it won't matter what those numbers look like after we breech thresholds of 200k US sales.
Also anyone can plug in your own estimates to get a guess for where you should be in line to get a certain amount of tax credit. I was using decently optimistic numbers because if Tesla scales slower that impacts and pushes the 200k breech level out a bit (meaning more initial Model 3 deliveries before you break 200k) and that means a higher chance of getting the credit.
Hopefully what you can get from this is a huge on where in the list you want to find yourself to feel reasonably confident you can get the credit. Obviously if the numbers turn out better than this the better for those not planning on needing/wanting the credit.
Either way I hope this should make people a little more confident that they can avoid being boxed out the credit assuming they place an order on the 31st AND plan to buy the highest level of trim. Beyond that... Is anyone's guess... But, hopefully this will ease tensions between the owners vs non-owners crowd just a bit and we can get back to being one big happy family of enthusiasts!
chickensevil
Active Member
To your first point your right, I'm making an assumption there. I wouldn't see a need for them to continue to extend that courtesy to owners after a "reasonable" grace period of say 1 month. Or even better cut off "new owners" beyond date X (say again 1 month or maybe 2) both of those are reasonable because the priority is no longer necessary... Why? Because you could have got your happy butt to the store on the 31st... Not two years later when you decided to finally drop 1k. It's 1k! How hard is that to come up with for anyone able to afford to buy a new car with a retail price of 70k+?
- trim level. That's the key metric. This is the standard they have used on the S and the X. I don't see why they would change that now. It just makes sense from both a financial sense (higher trims also tend toward higher option take rates, though sure not always) and production sense. With exception of the 5 seat option they have done by the trim level because it is easier to push them down the line at first if you are making all the cars roughly the same. Given this is a sedan, I would expect them to mirror the way the S was rolled out. Performance first, then largest battery option, medium battery option, small battery option (assuming there are three, if two choices then remove one of course)
- again I was somewhat trying to account for this in my estimates. Even in the examples of people buying them for kids you have to account for the largest hit to weeding down these numbers is those picking the P version. That has been at the 30% level (ish) at its peak when I had seen the distribution breakout. So if you apply even just that, that dumps a significant chunk of cars off the 65k.
Point still stands, if you camp out a store (I have two coworkers already scheduling off that day to do just that!) You odds of getting the full credit pan out to be extremely high... Unless! And there is a decent caveat here... Tesla fails to produce in volume on the Model 3 at the end of 2017 as promised... At that point it becomes much more likely that the S/X sales alone push us past that threshold. But then, that wouldn't have anything to do with prioritizing the M3 to current owners and everything to do with Tesla being terrible, yet again, at hitting projected timelines. I hope for everyone's sake they deliver in decent volume on time!
What will Darryl have to say after he is proven wrong on the 31st?
He's already been proven wrong. The invitation clearly says "We're excited to share details of the Model 3 prototype unveiling at an intimate event in Los Angeles".
anxman
Member
Has anyone gotten invites to the 3/31 event? Curious if the lottery winners have been notified.
MrBoylan
Member
Close but you're off by a quarter in your numbers (in a good way). The full $7500 tax credit applies for a full quarter after the quarter in which the manufacturer delivers the 200,000th car in the US. So if Tesla somehow manages to deliver its 200,000th car in the US early in a quarter (let's say, July 1, 2018, the first day of Q3), then all of the cars delivered in Q3 2018 and all of the cars delivered in Q4 2018 would be eligible for the full credit. That would be nearly 6 months worth of deliveries after they hit 200K. If instead they hit the number on September 30, 2018, then all of the vehicles delivered in Q4 would still be eligible for the credit (3 months). Then in Q1 and Q2 of 2019, you'd get 50% credit and Q3, Q4 you'd get 25% credit.
It's still based on a bunch of what-ifs and speculation but my estimates aren't that far off from yours. But that said, I'm still planning to go to the Tesla store in Manhattan and reserve mine at 1:00 PM (10:00 AM Pacific Time) on March 31. Not sure if there will be lines or not. If the lines are crazy, I'll try my luck online a few hours later (I expect the servers to crash from the load).
Here's the IRS page with the details on the EV tax credit:
Plug-In Electric Drive Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D)
Here's the specific wording of the phaseout period:
Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D) Phase Out
The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period.
Putting myself out there again, since it worked last time: if anyone gets picked for this and I don't get picked, I'll gladly take the place as your +1, and in exchange I can offer a ride to and from the event in my Roadster. I also live in Orange County, which is like an hour away from where the event will be, so if you're from out of the area I suppose I could offer a place to stay, but it's sort of far away and you might feel better just staying in LA anyway, so that's up to you.
Reeler
Decade of Pure EV Driving
internauts
Member
4 pm and still waiting for the Tesla invitation. I've checked my email inbox somewhat more often than usual. I have tentative travel plans and feel lucky!
Camera-Cruiser
Fully Charged
Great idea. I'd like to steal it too. Except, I'd have to bump my wife out of the +1 spot, which might result in marital disharmony... sigh.
Otherwise it would be a ride in my 85 CPO, or ancient Land Cruiser.
SteveW25561
Member
internauts
Member
Being a Tesla fan does require a dose of patience. Checking my email occasionally, 20 times an hour all day, for that invitation. I have travel plans to attend, just need that golden ticket, or an invitation as the guest of a more lucky fan. Maybe someone local would commit to bring me as their guest in return for my commitment to bring them as my guest. Just increases odds of being lucky.
pox
Member
I won a gigafactory grand opening invite, If I don't win a model 3 invite I was thinking if some want go as each others plus one to each event that could be kind of cool. I'll be driving to each event in My Model S so could give rides from the airport and hotel.
