More price drops coming?

[vickh]

Anyone predict that this is the lowest we'll see for Q1 or more drops coming on the Y?

For my 3 I had a fixed price target that Elon had announced for years $35k. It came just in time for tax credit phase out. I wonder if the SR Y will be make an appearance??

Your Model Y​

1. Model Y Long Range Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive
2. Pearl White Paint
3. 19’’ Gemini Wheels
4. All Black Premium Interior
5. Seven Seat Interior
6. Autopilot
7. Tow Hitch
8. 30-Day Premium Connectivity Trial

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• • Vehicle Price $57,990
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• Your Model Y $59,630

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Your design qualifies for a $7,500 federal tax credit for eligible buyers.
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[Watts_Up]

I wonder how long the current 20% price discount that Tesla just made will last.
I general, the first quarter is the one with slowest sales, so I was not surprised that Tesla was going to make a discount.

For the following quarters, I would not be surprised if the prices will jump again.
In particular, the battery manufacturing will be part of the IRA tax discount.

There might be a new V4 version of the cameras.
The Model 3 Highland might be presented in Q3, may be with a larger battery.
Also there will be certainly some increase costs for raw materials.

The IRA tax discount, I believe is going to last ten years.
So I wonder if the $55k Sedan and $80k SUV will be adjusted to follow the yearly inflation rate.
Otherwise, in few years, only the future Tesla Model 2 / Q will be able to get the IRA tax discount.

 

[Kiomon]

I don't think they are going to drop it again this year. These were large adjustments and while they get some back from their own tax rebates, they still have margins to think about. What's interesting is the Model Y performance. If they can't convince the IRS that it's a 5 seater, I do think we could see something where the 7 seat becomes standard in it at a slightly.higher price point so that it qualifies.

 

[Ostrichsak]

This reminds me a LOT of the Model S LR $69,420 pricing situation of 2019. I told all of my friends who were in the market for a used Model S to jump at that price. Some did and ended up tens of thousands of instant equity as the prices didn't stay and rose pretty drastically pretty rapidly thereafter. This Model Y LR discount feels similar in many ways. I decided that I wasn't going to have regrets about not taking advantage of it this time around and pulled the trigger on one.

I think those who are in the market and are waiting for another discount are going to wish they had pulled the trigger on a MY LR that will cost under $45k after all of the dust settles. That's just an insanely good deal for what you get, especially when you consider all of the small quality-of-life improvements on the 2023. They fixed several of the things that kept us from getting a Y previously.

To bring it back to your question, not only do I not see further drops (at least not on the Model Y LR which is the clear cut winner on the current discounts to hit a price point of sub-$55k) but I doubt the prices will stay here long. Just long enough to stir the emotions and get people talking about Tesla in a positive light once again and then they'll start to creep again as we still are seeing cost of raw materials increases and supply line issues. Nobody is immune to that or inflation right now and the consumer prices have to reflect that.

 

[240vPlug]

I don't think they are going to drop it again this year. These were large adjustments and while they get some back from their own tax rebates, they still have margins to think about. What's interesting is the Model Y performance. If they can't convince the IRS that it's a 5 seater, I do think we could see something where the 7 seat becomes standard in it at a slightly.higher price point so that it qualifies.

What I have been saying. Even if they charge the $4,000 for 7 seat on MYP it's back to it's early 2021 price of $60,990.

Tesla has to offer 7 seat on all model because remember if you add just one option to a LR any other will put you over the 55k.the SR AWD looks to be $51,990 so only $1,000 cheaper than the LR.

 

[SageBrush]

To bring it back to your question

Fair analysis, but it is predicated on adequate demand from March owward if the tax credit is halved. And the demand is a moving target that has to keep up with Tesla's planned ~ 50% CAGR.

The more I think about it, the more I think it is more likely that prices will come down further unless the current price drop was an over-reaction.

 

[tashtibet]

All things are impermanent -do not pin your life on Wishful Thinking! Do you enjoy trips to the gas station, dealership/mechanic, oil change, emission test, auto part stores etc? Well, listen to the Rolling Stone's: You Can't Always Get What You Want.

 

[eleison]

It depends on demand. Demand depends a lot on the economy. How will the economy rebound (unlikely) or how much it will get worse (likely).

Inflation affect tesla materials only so much. If a deeper recession hits, inflation will not be as bad because there will be less demand for basic materials.

I think we are going into a deeper recession or even a slight depression. Therefore, I think prices will come down even more.

 

[vickh]

It depends on demand. Demand depends a lot on the economy. How will the economy rebound (unlikely) or how much it will get worse (likely).

Inflation affect tesla materials only so much. If a deeper recession hits, inflation will not be as bad because there will be less demand for basic materials.

I think we are going into a deeper recession or even a slight depression. Therefore, I think prices will come down even more.

Enough to overcome a 7.5K tax credit? I don't think so.. Neither does most of this thread.

I'm definitely buying b/f Q1 end Question is when

 

[vickh]

All things are impermanent -do not pin your life on Wishful Thinking! Do you enjoy trips to the gas station, dealership/mechanic, oil change, emission test, auto part stores etc? Well, listen to the Rolling Stone's: You Can't Always Get What You Want.

I have a 3 now so I know what you mean. This is for wife and we're still debating b/t "needing" a Y or "wanting" used X

 

[ElectricIAC]

The whole point of the price drop we just saw was to rip the band aid off rather than do incremental decreases with people waiting to see how low it’ll go.

I wouldn’t expect any further price drops except to reach specific (malicious) compliance pricing.

 

[vickh]

I wonder how long the current 20% price discount that Tesla just made will last.
I general, the first quarter is the one with slowest sales, so I was not surprised that Tesla was going to make a discount.

For the following quarters, I would not be surprised if the prices will jump again.
In particular, the battery manufacturing will be part of the IRA tax discount.

There might be a new V4 version of the cameras.
The Model 3 Highland might be presented in Q3, may be with a larger battery.
Also there will be certainly some increase costs for raw materials.

The IRA tax discount, I believe is going to last ten years.
So I wonder if the $55k Sedan and $80k SUV will be adjusted to follow the yearly inflation rate.
Otherwise, in few years, only the future Tesla Model 2 / Q will be able to get the IRA tax discount.

Good long term analysis. Not thinking that long term, just when to buy in Q1 or Q2 if TSLA will match the credit going away .They came close to that in 2019 but not for my SR. I wish TSLA would just bring back the SR Y soon.

 

[vickh]

The whole point of the price drop we just saw was to rip the band aid off rather than do incremental decreases with people waiting to see how low it’ll go.

I agree. I wish I did a poll but looks like most of the thread agrees with you. TMC group consensus was spot on re: current price drop. Elon is hard to predict though

 

[scratch]

Fair analysis, but it is predicated on adequate demand from March owward if the tax credit is halved. And the demand is a moving target that has to keep up with Tesla's planned ~ 50% CAGR.

The more I think about it, the more I think it is more likely that prices will come down further unless the current price drop was an over-reaction.

Do you think the tax credits are what's really driving the purchases? Or could it have more to do with other EVs?

Just bought a MYLR, trading in a Ford MME Select I bought in June 2022. The MME is a nice ride but it lacks battery range and can take hours to charge on anything less than 150kw.

The price for a new MME Premium with a long range battery starts at $68k. A MYLR with more features and 25% more range costs $55k. After this price drop, brand loyalty is the only reason to stick with Ford.

The difference in overall cost makes me question whether any near-term price reductions would be necessary.

 

[Geech72]

Current general consensus has GDP down 1-2% in Q 1&2. Couple that with higher interest rates and waning car values there's potential for a material increase in repos that would result in negative price pressure in the car market. However Tesla is REALLY BAD at managing their business so who knows how they'll react

 

[SageBrush]

Or could it have more to do with other EVs?

One disgruntled Ford EV owner does not a market make.

Ohh, and Welcome !

 

[vickh]

Do you think the tax credits are what's really driving the purchases? Or could it have more to do with other EVs?

The new price is almost perfectly in line with the tax credit phase out. The conspiracy theorist in me says the tax credit phase out was set to exclude Tesla purposely, but Elon said we'll just see about that!

MME looks nice, but Ford dealers are still doing crazy mark ups that I no longer have patience for. What was your OTD price (not MSRP)? Also as a brand Ford's reliability is questionable, not sure if their EVs are better.

 

[Watts_Up]

This reminds me a LOT of the Model S LR $69,420 pricing situation of 2019. I told all of my friends who were in the market for a used Model S to jump at that price. Some did and ended up tens of thousands of instant equity as the prices didn't stay and rose pretty drastically pretty rapidly thereafter. This Model Y LR discount feels similar in many ways. I decided that I wasn't going to have regrets about not taking advantage of it this time around and pulled the trigger on one.

This 20% Model Y price cut remind me also the $69,420 Model S discount
when the following 2020 Model S refresh took a 50% price increase.

I really wonder what behind the coming Model 3 Highland update, and may be Model Y Highland too.
There is currently no Model 3 LR, and I doubt that the coming Model 3 LR AWD Highland will cost less than $55k.

So this will make room for the future Model 2 / Model Q to take advantage then of the $55k IRA tax discount.

 

[Watts_Up]

... I doubt the prices will stay here long. Just long enough to stir the emotions and get people talking about Tesla in a positive light once again and then they'll start to creep again as we still are seeing cost of raw materials increases and supply line issues. Nobody is immune to that or inflation right now and the consumer prices have to reflect that.

Tesla cannot keep those discount prices all over the full brand for too long, as Tesla needs to get enough price margins to build new factories.
It's not like some other legacy car makers who have other sources of revenues to allow them to discount their EVs, like GM did with the Bolt.

Talking about inflation, I wonder if the $55k and $80k are carved in stone or will be reajusted?

 

[ucmndd]

I doubt there will be any additional pricing changes for Q1.

Anything’s possible after March when the tax credit rules change again.