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His change of heart on estimating the manufacturing costs? I missed something? I read this as UBS taking his numbers and turning them on their head.
Yeah, Tesla won't likely turn a net profit on the "stripper" variant of the Model 3, even with a 18% gross margin, for some time because of all the non-manufactirng costs, debt servicing, etc. But a $35K customer adding just AEP to their purchase, since it requires negligible per unit cost to Tesla, is very likely to turn any red to black. And that's just the baseline unit, crappy/non-existant margin on those isn't anything particularly unusual. It doesn't address anything above that, they'll be turning net profit on the LRs even without extra options and Tesla has the rest of the world, outside the US and Canada, that they haven't even begun to fulfill orders on.