Natural gas, a bridge to nowhere?

[mspohr]

Clean energy is catching up to natural gas much faster than anyone thought
Interesting discussion that energy market is changing much faster than predicted so that it will no longer be economic to build or operate natural gas plants.

 

[rays427]

It's interesting it shows 4hr battery storage will be cheaper but what about storing energy from day to day or month to month. Solar and wind are great but you still need some kind of backup. I think long term storage solutions will take more than a few years to be economic.

 

[mspohr]

It's interesting it shows 4hr battery storage will be cheaper but what about storing energy from day to day or month to month. Solar and wind are great but you still need some kind of backup. I think long term storage solutions will take more than a few years to be economic.

Studies have been done (don't have a handy reference now) which show that widely distributed wind and solar does not need long term storage. When you have lots of different sources in different locations, the total generation tends to stabilize.

 

[SageBrush]

I think long term storage solutions

I'll take solar (and wind by extension.)

The missing ingredient is an integrated, long distance grid.

 

[rays427]

Studies have been done (don't have a handy reference now) which show that widely distributed wind and solar does not need long term storage. When you have lots of different sources in different locations, the total generation tends to stabilize.

Although it tends to help it doesn't solve the problem. Just take a look at what's going on in Germany.
Electricity generation in Germany | Energy Charts

 

[nwdiver]

I think CH4 aka 'Natural Gas' WILL be our long term storage... so the gas turbine infrastructure we're building may indeed be useful.

 

[mblakele]

Studies have been done (don't have a handy reference now) which show that widely distributed wind and solar does not need long term storage. When you have lots of different sources in different locations, the total generation tends to stabilize.

You may be right. I'd like to see those studies. Do they consider what happens to solar when a big volcano erupts, dimming solar production globally? Could climate change cause wind patterns to shift, stranding turbine capacity?

Possible counterpoint: Varun Sivaram's book Taming the Sun: Innovations to Harness Solar Energy and Power the Planet (2018, MIT Press) argues that long-term storage is a critical piece of the renewable energy puzzle.

 

[mspohr]

Although it tends to help it doesn't solve the problem. Just take a look at what's going on in Germany.
Electricity generation in Germany | Energy Charts

Look at a more recent week
Electricity generation in Germany | Energy Charts
A lot different picture.

 

[mspohr]

You may be right. I'd like to see those studies. Do they consider what happens to solar when a big volcano erupts, dimming solar production globally? Could climate change cause wind patterns to shift, stranding turbine capacity?

Possible counterpoint: Varun Sivaram's book Taming the Sun: Innovations to Harness Solar Energy and Power the Planet (2018, MIT Press) argues that long-term storage is a critical piece of the renewable energy puzzle.

Here's the updated Stanford study
Avoiding blackouts with 100% renewable energy | Stanford News
They analyse three different scenarios. Some use heat storage.

Relevant section of original study.

Matching Electric Power Supply with Demand
... In that study, it was found that matching large differences between high electrical
demand and low renewable supply could be realized largely by using a combination
of either (1) substantial CSP storage plus batteries with zero change in existing hy-
dropower annual energy output or peak power discharge rate, (2) modest CSP stor-
age with no batteries and zero change in the existing hydropower annual energy
output but a substantial increase in hydropower’s peak discharge rate, (3) increases
in CSP-storage, batteries, and heat pumps, but no thermal energy storage and no
increase in hydropower’s peak discharge rate or annual energy output, or (4) a com-
bination of (1), (2), and (3).

 

[rays427]

Look at a more recent week
Electricity generation in Germany | Energy Charts
A lot different picture.

If you go to the monthly output the January 2018 wind and solar total output is 15.44 Twh and in July it was 6.06 Twh. That's a fairly big difference.

 

[mspohr]

If you go to the monthly output the January 2018 wind and solar total output is 15.44 Twh and in July it was 6.06 Twh. That's a fairly big difference.

Interesting that the January wind+sun is much greater than July. I guess they have a lot more wind (which benefits from winter winds) installed than sun.

 

[Brando]

Changing market place?

Centralized Power Plants distributing electricity vs local production of electricity where it is used.

DC long distance transmission make utility scale wind and solar competitive with Nukes & Coal plants?
examples: Texas [MidWest] Winds and SW solar farms

local storage (batteries) vs peaker plants

Of course infrastructure changes take decades, but the trends seem positive. Have we reached the tipping point? I think (hope) so.

good luck to the next generation
China seems to be moving fast. And even Arab Gulf states are installing solar farms.

 

[SageBrush]

If you go to the monthly output the January 2018 wind and solar total output is 15.44 Twh and in July it was 6.06 Twh. That's a fairly big difference.

Which just goes to show you that each region will use solar and wind in varying fractions to match generation patterns.

 

[Brando]

Good overview of 2018 state of Natural Gas vs Renewables:
Clean energy is catching up to natural gas

 

[mspohr]

CNN: Power outage at GE.
Power outage at GE

GE's natural gas turbine business is collapsing causing serious problems for the company.

 

[nwdiver]

CNN: Power outage at GE.
Power outage at GE

GE's natural gas turbine business is collapsing causing serious problems for the company.

Should've bet on wind instead...

This is going to become an increasingly dire problem... our economy is dependent on growth. The way it's structured it's unsustainable just sustaining.

 

[mblakele]

Here's the updated Stanford study
Avoiding blackouts with 100% renewable energy | Stanford News
They analyse three different scenarios. Some use heat storage.

Relevant section of original study.

Matching Electric Power Supply with Demand
... In that study, it was found that matching large differences between high electrical
demand and low renewable supply could be realized largely by using a combination
of either (1) substantial CSP storage plus batteries with zero change in existing hy-
dropower annual energy output or peak power discharge rate, (2) modest CSP stor-
age with no batteries and zero change in the existing hydropower annual energy
output but a substantial increase in hydropower’s peak discharge rate, (3) increases
in CSP-storage, batteries, and heat pumps, but no thermal energy storage and no
increase in hydropower’s peak discharge rate or annual energy output, or (4) a com-
bination of (1), (2), and (3).

Thanks. What did you think about the rebuttal to that Jacobson paper? Here’s some coverage:

Science friction: Researchers rebut 100 percent renewables proposal

 

[Brando]

Thanks. What did you think about the rebuttal to that Jacobson paper? Here’s some coverage:

Science friction: Researchers rebut 100 percent renewables proposal

opinions of opinion and sometimes opinions of what some guy got reading a study
Best to read original materials for yourself and get your own conclusions, yes?

Better yet may be the "on going" windmills and Tesla battery demonstration. We all look forward to the next time any Natural Gas peaker plant gets started up - and why? many articles and you should pick your own sources - so do a search:

Australia tesla battery project

Seems to my reading that renewable/storage are much better than NuclearIndustry/CoalIndustry/NGIndustry will admit. AND I suspect the Koch brothers are spending plenty of money to get articles written that are anti-renewable, anti Tesla, anti-solar, no? side note: Wind prices in Washington state are under cutting the Hydo dam electricity production. BPA.gov had to raise rates on transmission costs AND electricity rates to make up for losses to the windmills which could price lower. [better for windmills to get some money rather than no money, so they will "sell below costs" rather than lose money.]

 

[mspohr]

Thanks. What did you think about the rebuttal to that Jacobson paper? Here’s some coverage:

Science friction: Researchers rebut 100 percent renewables proposal

Clearly Jacobsen et al made bold claims and clearly these have drawn criticism. The bold claims should be examined. I read the criticism and Jacobsen's rebuttal (http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CombiningRenew/PNASReplyClack.pdf).

Jacobsen charts a path to clean energy. Solutions Project
The criticism seems to be that it will take a lot of effort / money to build out renewables and there are political obstacles.
It would have been useful for the critics to point to areas where they have a better plan but that doesn't seem to exist.
What is the alternative?

 

[brucet999]

Here's the updated Stanford study
Avoiding blackouts with 100% renewable energy | Stanford News
They analyse three different scenarios. Some use heat storage.

Relevant section of original study.

Matching Electric Power Supply with Demand
... In that study, it was found that matching large differences between high electrical
demand and low renewable supply could be realized largely by using a combination
of either (1) substantial CSP storage plus batteries with zero change in existing hy-
dropower annual energy output or peak power discharge rate, (2) modest CSP stor-
age with no batteries and zero change in the existing hydropower annual energy
output but a substantial increase in hydropower’s peak discharge rate, (3) increases
in CSP-storage, batteries, and heat pumps, but no thermal energy storage and no
increase in hydropower’s peak discharge rate or annual energy output, or (4) a com-
bination of (1), (2), and (3).

What is CSP storage?