Interesting to trace how Tesla has fared on the Navigant Leaderboard over the last few years:
March 2017: Tesla was still considered an AV contender, with a decent strategy and execution, obviously based mainly on the performance of AP1 and the
faked demo video of Nov.2016:
March 2018: Competition heats up while the hot mess of EAP throughout 2017 is judged ... consequently the arse drops out of Tesla's rating as the industry recognises Musk's fantasies on execution largely dropped out of his arse:
March 2019: With strategy now also moving in reverse Tesla is relegated to being the tail-end Charlie of AV, challenging only to customers who paid for FSD years before yet with increasing frustration await its appearance and other companies like Apple with no tangible product:
By contrast, MobilEye, which Musk improbably claimed in 2016 was holding him back from releasing some amazing cross-country FSD, has now deservedly advanced to #5 in the overall ranking, by demonstrating themselves as a serious AV company
who know WTH they are talking about.
Predictions:
1. At this rate of "progress", and given the recent redefinition of FSD to [at least legally] mean a fraction of what it previously did, by March 2020 Tesla will be alone in the 'followers' category, if it even makes it onto this board at all, seeing how FSD is promised to remain L2 with incessant nags (and an apparently insatiable affinity for parked firetrucks) for the foreseeable future.
2. HW3 & FSD will fail to pull off the rapid series of miracles needed inside the next 12 months to reverse this trend. Instead it will advance with all the grace and speed of an arthritic frog, as EAP development has done to date. If it achieves L3 approval by Jan.2023 without a sensor upgrade, that will be amazing.
3. The vaunted Tesla Network of driverless RoboTaxis [all mention of which was recently and silently erased from their website] will not be seen this side of 2028, and definitely not ever on the current HW2.5 sensor suite.