Near and long term pricing trends

[flankspeed8]

Greetings. I am a current Volt (2014) driver and have already made the decision that my next car will be a Tesla. Before I bought the Volt, a friend was almost begging me to buy a Tesla but I did not even consider that. In hindsight, I wish I would have. I flip cars pretty frequently. Prior to the 2014 Volt, I had a 2013 Passat TDI Sel. Not a cheap car by average means, but in Tesla speak, it is about 1/2 a pretty base S85. I have made the decision that if I am going to drop 85-95K on a car, I will keep it for a long time, especially if I am confident in the technology and the reliability. I thought of putting the deposit down on the X, but feel it will be too big of a vehicle for me. I almost never drive with anyone else, nor do I haul stuff.

Is it fair to say that rather than lower MSRP, Tesla tends to offer more features? What has been the pricing trend of the Model S since introduction? Lower or higher?
Do they do annual price increases like most traditional car companies?
What is the thought of pricing the Model S once the Model X comes out?

If I ordered a Model S today, it was pricing at about $91K (before 7.5k credit), S85D with tech and not many other options. In all candor, the earliest that I would order would be about 1 year from now so that it would be a 2016 MY.

Just curious what peoples thoughts are. I know that as an early adopter, you pay a premium. But 3-4 years after the Model S release, are people still really early adopters? Thanks for your insight on this.

 

[commasign]

The price of the Model S tends to increase over time, both the base price, and the price of options (though features are added when option prices increase). If you are going to buy one a year from now, consider an inventory (i.e. showroom/demo) car which will have a significant discount.

 

[David_Cary]

The general consensus here is fairly stable price going forward (there have been some price increases in the past) but increased features. The autopilot is a pretty significant add on that basically came with no price increase. As it improves, it should be something worth a few thousand dollars but it was just added to the tech package.

I think with the X coming out, the S is unlikely to get a price increase. Cost will keep decreasing going forward but competition is not close by.

To some a price decrease looks bad from a stock market - demand point of view. If capacity cranked up and the 3 was delayed, it might happen. But I suspect the X will take all the capacity for the next 2 years.

 

[flankspeed8]

To some a price decrease looks bad from a stock market - demand point of view. If capacity cranked up and the 3 was delayed, it might happen. But I suspect the X will take all the capacity for the next 2 years.

I am guessing that the X will be on a completely separate assembly line? Or are they interchangeable? Seems like a logistical challenge to gauge the ebb and flow of order mix.

 

[ArtInCT]

Flankspeed8:
Like you, I will be ordering a model S in about one year from now. You raise an interesting question... "But 3-4 years after the Model S release, are people still really early adopters?"

I certainly say a resounding YES and here is why.... Let us take for instance the P85D and 85D dual engine variants of the S. The dual engines and the wizardry behind them is not really an evolution but rather a revolution in Tesla terms. If you are reading the P85D threads, therein abound all kinds of gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands over energy usage and watts used per mile traveled. The dual engine at present gives more performance at what initially on first release of hardware and software, appears to be a cost of distance and some other nits (such as reduced frunk space).

So I am sure that most if not all of the P85D owners feel they have adopted the Dual Engine S early on in its evolution. Some or most consider themselves on the cutting edge... and expect to go through the tribulations of evolving the P85D into the fine car it will be when I order it a year from now. Others appear to demand that the P85D be perfect right out of the gate and for the price of the vehicle I do think they are justified in having that opinion. All of the P85D early adopters feel that software tweaks alone can provide more range without loss of acceleration performance, and are awaiting THE firmware download that provides the first of probably many refinements.

Having not owned a TESLA product yet, I can say that it appears that there are many improvements that TESLA is bringing forth in the newer cars so the evolution of refinement is indeed alive and well and always just around the corner.

Lets have this discussion in a year's time when you and I are about to order.... I suspect the Model S we order will be even further along the path of improvement. More expensive? We'll see.

 

[neroden]

Flankspeed8:
Like you, I will be ordering a model S in about one year from now. You raise an interesting question... "But 3-4 years after the Model S release, are people still really early adopters?"

I certainly say a resounding YES and here is why....

I say yes, but the reason is different: the charging network *still* isn't fully built out. Once there are no major "charging wastelands", then anyone buying the car will not be an early adopter any more. The early adopter is the person who has to deal with the lack of an "ecosystem" around the product.

 

[ArtInCT]

Excellent Point Neroden!