here's my updated view. incorporated a few corrections and suggestions from the comments.
i segregate the one time charge for layoffs on the income statement, however i believe the quarterly report might just combine it into opex. the cash flow statement includes some impact of stock-based comp charges for layoffs. i assume an equal relative weight of cuts across various opex lines to model future quarters.
the cash balance looks scary but i didn't model any draws on credit lines (those are very hard to model intelligently so i opted to punt). they have recently expanded credit line capacity so if any quarter's cash balance looks to scary i expect them to supplement with draws on credit lines, asset securitizations, or similar.
there's some evidence which indicates my q3/q4 assumptions may be overly pessimistic regarding model 3 units but will wait for further evidence before revising. i had to take model s/x estimates higher based on my delivery modeling, but i am still modeling historical back end "lightness" (meaning much fewer deliveries than normal in month 3 of quarter).
i'm also very skeptical that i haven't been aggressive enough with opex cuts. considering what they did to employees this week i speculate that the cuts to contractors (barnacle scraping) went much deeper. and considering how expensive contractors can be, there may be an opex reduction that is of similar magnitude to the employee cuts not modeled.
i had to go back and recheck the cash modeling. the reason is one time changes in opex were flowing thru into accrued liabilities, which was affecting cash incorrectly. there's still some difference vs. the first version in cash modeling, but it's mostly due to the relationship between opex and accrued liabilities shifting due to one time items and ongoing opex changes. i tried to account for these changes reasonably but make no claim to accuracy.
basically i could be more optimistic but am trying to keep things grounded in things i know with higher confidence. the q2 earnings report will provide more accurate insights.
also previously i had mentioned something about a podcast. i have since been contacted by the host and based on that discussion was delighted to learn the host came to similar conclusions independently.
… |
s deliveries |
x deliveries |
s+x deliveries |
3 deliveries |
lease s/x % veh |
avg price s+x |
avg price model 3 |
|
revenue |
auto sales ex 3 |
auto sales mod 3 |
auto leasing |
1 time autopilot |
zev credits |
total auto |
|
energy storage |
solarcity |
grohmann |
services/other |
total revenue |
|
cost of revenue |
auto sales ex 3 |
auto sales mod 3 |
auto leasing |
total auto |
energy storage |
solarcity |
grohmann |
services & other |
total cost of rev |
|
gross profit |
|
auto gaap ex 3 gm |
auto-zev ex 3 gm |
model 3 gm |
auto-zev incl 3 gm |
storage gm |
scty gm |
grohmann gm |
services gm |
|
opex |
tesla r&d |
tesla sg&a |
1 time costs |
solarcity r&d |
solarcity sg&a |
total opex |
|
op income |
|
interest inc |
interest exp |
scty interest |
other income exp |
1time scty gain |
pretax income |
income tax |
net income |
non-cont int. |
net inc to common |
|
basic shares |
diluted shares |
|
diluted gaap eps |
gaap net income |
+ stock based comp |
+ one time scty |
non-gaap net income |
non-gaap diluted eps |
|
|
balance sheet |
current assets |
cash & eq. |
restricted cash |
accts rcvbl |
inventory |
prepaids+other |
total current assets |
|
op lease vehicles |
solar energy sys |
pp&e |
intangible assets |
goodwill |
mypower rcvbls |
restricted cash |
other assets |
total assets |
|
current liabiliites |
accts payable |
accrued liabs+other |
deferred revenue |
resale value guar |
cust deposits |
curr debt+leases |
curr solar bonds |
total current liabs |
|
lt debt+leases |
solar bonds |
rel party conv debt |
deferred revenue |
resale value guar |
other lt liabilities |
comm stk warrants |
capital lease oblg |
total liabilities |
|
commits/contings |
rdmbl ncis in subs |
conv senior notes |
nci in subsidiaries |
|
common equity |
|
|
cash flow statement |
cash flows from ops |
net loss |
dep/amortization |
stock-based comp |
am of debt discount |
inv write-down |
loss on disposals |
forex loss (gain) |
loss on acq scty |
non-cash int/other |
|
chgs in op as/lb |
accts rcbl |
inv / op leases |
prepaids/other ca |
mypower rcvbls + other |
accts pybl/accr liabs |
deferred revenue |
customer deposits |
other lt liabs |
net cash from ops |
|
cash flows from inv |
pp&e purchases |
purchase solar sys |
net cash from inv |
|
cash flows from fin |
stock issued |
debt issued |
debt repayments |
rel pty solar repaids |
coll lease borrowing |
stock option excrs |
capital lease paids |
stock+debt issue cost |
investment by nci in subs |
dist to nci in subs |
buyouts of nci in subs |
net cash from fin |
forex effect |
net change in cash |
cash & eq start |
cash & eq end |
[TD2]
luv q4-18e
[/TD2][TD2]
luv q3-18e
[/TD2][TD2]
luv q2-18e
[/TD2][TD2]
Mar-18
[/TD2]
[TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2]
[TD2]13,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]10,500[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2]
[TD2]
28,000
[/TD2][TD2]
27,000
[/TD2][TD2]
22,500
[/TD2][TD2]
21,815
[/TD2]
[TD2]
60,000
[/TD2][TD2]
50,000
[/TD2][TD2]
23,000
[/TD2][TD2]
8,182
[/TD2]
[TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2]
[TD2]
106.00
[/TD2][TD2]
106.00
[/TD2][TD2]
106.00
[/TD2][TD2]
105.76
[/TD2]
[TD2]
58.00
[/TD2][TD2]
60.00
[/TD2][TD2]
56.00
[/TD2][TD2]
56.00
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,641,520[/TD2][TD2]2,547,180[/TD2][TD2]2,122,650[/TD2][TD2]2,053,375[/TD2]
[TD2]3,480,000[/TD2][TD2]3,000,000[/TD2][TD2]1,288,000[/TD2][TD2]458,192[/TD2]
[TD2]187,201[/TD2][TD2]181,235[/TD2][TD2]175,540[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2]
[TD2]
6,408,721
[/TD2][TD2]
5,828,415
[/TD2][TD2]
3,586,190
[/TD2][TD2]
2,735,317
[/TD2]
[TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]164,500[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2]
[TD2]220,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2]
[TD2]
7,108,721
[/TD2][TD2]
6,583,415
[/TD2][TD2]
4,300,690
[/TD2][TD2]
3,408,751
[/TD2]
[TD2]1,973,445[/TD2][TD2]1,903,037[/TD2][TD2]1,588,315[/TD2][TD2]1,540,031[/TD2]
[TD2]2,836,200[/TD2][TD2]2,490,000[/TD2][TD2]1,288,000[/TD2][TD2]551,366[/TD2]
[TD2]119,809[/TD2][TD2]115,990[/TD2][TD2]112,345[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2]
[TD2]
4,929,454
[/TD2][TD2]
4,509,027
[/TD2][TD2]
2,988,660
[/TD2][TD2]
2,195,893
[/TD2]
[TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]189,000[/TD2][TD2]180,950[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2]
[TD2]154,000[/TD2][TD2]192,500[/TD2][TD2]192,500[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2]
[TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2]
[TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]384,000[/TD2][TD2]365,750[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2]
[TD2]
5,649,453
[/TD2][TD2]
5,285,526
[/TD2][TD2]
3,738,860
[/TD2][TD2]
2,952,225
[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,459,269
[/TD2][TD2]
1,297,889
[/TD2][TD2]
561,829
[/TD2][TD2]
456,526
[/TD2]
[TD2]28.5%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.8%[/TD2]
[TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.1%[/TD2]
[TD2]18.5%[/TD2][TD2]17.0%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-20.3%[/TD2]
[TD2]21.9%[/TD2][TD2]21.3%[/TD2][TD2]16.7%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2]
[TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-10.0%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2]
[TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-28.0%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2]
[TD2]315,000[/TD2][TD2]309,060[/TD2][TD2]340,000[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2]
[TD2]510,000[/TD2][TD2]499,950[/TD2][TD2]550,000[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]85,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]42,000[/TD2][TD2]40,905[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2]
[TD2]132,000[/TD2][TD2]127,260[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2]
[TD2]
999,000
[/TD2][TD2]
977,175
[/TD2][TD2]
1,160,000
[/TD2][TD2]
1,053,500
[/TD2]
[TD2]
460,269
[/TD2][TD2]
320,714
[/TD2][TD2]
-598,171
[/TD2][TD2]
-596,974
[/TD2]
[TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2]
[TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2]
[TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2]
[TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
294,269
[/TD2][TD2]
154,714
[/TD2][TD2]
-764,171
[/TD2][TD2]
-779,022
[/TD2]
[TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2]
[TD2]
274,270
[/TD2][TD2]
134,715
[/TD2][TD2]
-784,171
[/TD2][TD2]
-784,627
[/TD2]
[TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2]
[TD2]
324,271
[/TD2][TD2]
184,716
[/TD2][TD2]
-734,171
[/TD2][TD2]
-709,551
[/TD2]
[TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,900[/TD2][TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2]
[TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]181,900[/TD2][TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2]
[TD2]
1.77
[/TD2][TD2]
1.02
[/TD2][TD2]
-4.32
[/TD2][TD2]
-4.19
[/TD2]
[TD2]324,271[/TD2][TD2]184,716[/TD2][TD2]-734,171[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2]
[TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]165,000[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]457,271[/TD2][TD2]317,716[/TD2][TD2]-569,171[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2]
[TD2]
2.50
[/TD2][TD2]
1.75
[/TD2][TD2]
-3.35
[/TD2][TD2]
-3.36
[/TD2]
[TD2]1,975,795[/TD2][TD2]1,433,016[/TD2][TD2]1,849,758[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2]
[TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2]
[TD2]1,168,557[/TD2][TD2]1,082,205[/TD2][TD2]754,094[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2]
[TD2]4,457,650[/TD2][TD2]4,633,886[/TD2][TD2]3,523,748[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2]
[TD2]312,293[/TD2][TD2]305,001[/TD2][TD2]366,089[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2]
[TD2]
8,064,295
[/TD2][TD2]
7,584,107
[/TD2][TD2]
6,593,689
[/TD2][TD2]
6,383,920
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,523,499[/TD2][TD2]2,443,550[/TD2][TD2]2,364,234[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2]
[TD2]6,345,887[/TD2][TD2]6,349,381[/TD2][TD2]6,352,910[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2]
[TD2]12,420,083[/TD2][TD2]11,695,516[/TD2][TD2]11,061,438[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2]
[TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]346,428[/TD2]
[TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2]
[TD2]428,754[/TD2][TD2]435,754[/TD2][TD2]442,754[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2]
[TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2]
[TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2]
[TD2]
30,917,381
[/TD2][TD2]
29,643,170
[/TD2][TD2]
27,949,886
[/TD2][TD2]
27,271,429
[/TD2]
[TD2]4,767,210[/TD2][TD2]4,691,810[/TD2][TD2]3,462,287[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2]
[TD2]1,998,000[/TD2][TD2]1,905,491[/TD2][TD2]1,913,500[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2]
[TD2]605,640[/TD2][TD2]586,452[/TD2][TD2]543,774[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2]
[TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2]
[TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2]
[TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,800,000[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2]
[TD2]
10,535,849
[/TD2][TD2]
10,348,753
[/TD2][TD2]
9,384,561
[/TD2][TD2]
8,650,359
[/TD2]
[TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]9,200,000[/TD2][TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]8,761,070[/TD2]
[TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2]
[TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2]
[TD2]883,225[/TD2][TD2]855,242[/TD2][TD2]827,482[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2]
[TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]670,000[/TD2][TD2]700,000[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2]
[TD2]2,747,250[/TD2][TD2]2,638,373[/TD2][TD2]2,633,750[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
23,818,943
[/TD2][TD2]
23,714,987
[/TD2][TD2]
22,548,412
[/TD2][TD2]
21,551,021
[/TD2]
[TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2]
[TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2]
[TD2]
5,795,495
[/TD2][TD2]
4,625,241
[/TD2][TD2]
4,098,532
[/TD2][TD2]
4,450,695
[/TD2]
[TD2]274,270[/TD2][TD2]134,715[/TD2][TD2]-784,171[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2]
[TD2]484,383[/TD2][TD2]456,125[/TD2][TD2]442,458[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2]
[TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]165,000[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2]
[TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2]
[TD2]46,339[/TD2][TD2]35,237[/TD2][TD2]25,658[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2]
[TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2]
[TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2]
[TD2]-86,352[/TD2][TD2]-328,112[/TD2][TD2]-101,246[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2]
[TD2]96,287[/TD2][TD2]-1,189,454[/TD2][TD2]-1,007,031[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2]
[TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2]
[TD2]117,909[/TD2][TD2]1,171,514[/TD2][TD2]823,858[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-19,823[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,230,835
[/TD2][TD2]
568,025
[/TD2][TD2]
-315,297
[/TD2][TD2]
-398,376
[/TD2]
[TD2]-900,000[/TD2][TD2]-800,000[/TD2][TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2]
[TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-70,000[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2]
[TD2]
-960,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-860,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-770,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-728,637
[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2]
[TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2]
[TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2]
[TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2]
[TD2]
258,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-142,000
[/TD2][TD2]
258,000
[/TD2][TD2]
371,660
[/TD2]
[TD2]13,944[/TD2][TD2]17,232[/TD2][TD2]11,382[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2]
[TD2]
542,779
[/TD2][TD2]
-416,743
[/TD2][TD2]
-815,915
[/TD2][TD2]
-745,251
[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,433,016
[/TD2][TD2]
1,849,758
[/TD2][TD2]
2,665,673
[/TD2][TD2]
3,367,914
[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,975,795
[/TD2][TD2]
1,433,016
[/TD2][TD2]
1,849,758
[/TD2][TD2]
2,665,673
[/TD2]