Near-future quarterly financial projections

[JohnnyEnglish]

Also, Fremont + GF3 Model 3 production may be flat or slightly increased in Q1 from Q4.

I've Q4 production as 85k and Q1 '20 production as 87k. Inventory goes down from 15k to 8k in Q4 and comes back to 15k in Q1.

In line regarding your Q4 production estimate. Estimating Q1 '20 production is difficult due to the potential constraints. From memory I think there is an annual factory shutdown in Fremont in January. I assume the same is true for GF1. Is this 1 week or 2 - can anyone confirm? In China it seems prudent to assume 2 weeks loss of production for Chinese New year. Add into this February being a short month.

Whilst battery pack production may start in GF3 towards the end of Q1 it looks like the majority of Q1 battery pack production will be in GF1 and hence that is likely to be the critical constraint on 3/Y production. 10 weeks at 10k packs/week (which is rumoured but not confirmed) would be potentially 100k packs and hence a max total of around 100k 3/Y production for Fremont and GF3.

Unless GF3 and Y both ramp aggressively it is difficult to see 3/Y averaging 10k/week during Q1. I would hope for something around 90k for Q1 3/Y production. Hopefully the Q4 ER will provide us with additional information to help us refine these estimates.

Estimating profit for Q1 is going to be even trickier as there are so many unknowns.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I made some changes based on this idea. I made assumptions like 60% residual, 5% int rate, 8% down payment. Also, that down payment in counted as revenue.

They amortize the down payment over the life of the lease.

For Model 3 I just figure one month of revenue (~600) the first quarter and 1800 each subsequent quarter.

 

[EVNow]

They amortize the down payment over the life of the lease.

For Model 3 I just figure one month of revenue (~600) the first quarter and 1800 each subsequent quarter.

Ok, so its like they never paid down payment - from revenue perspective.

 

[Fact Checking]

A question: since GF3 lies within the Lingang Free Trade Zone, wouldn't imported battery packs, seats, motors, parts and raw materials be exempt from any Chinese tariffs?

I.e. the Made in China Model 3's:

• Qualify for the EV incentives of Chinese domestic carmakers, of around $3,500. This is paid to Tesla.
  
• do not fall under the 20% car product tariffs, because they are made in China,
• are exempt from the 10% car sales tax according to the decision last week,
• can be built with imported components not subject to any European, U.S. or Chinese tariffs,
• have lower labor and parts costs as long as sourced from China,
• have equipment and tooling depreciation about 30% of that of Fremont,
• have much lower building amortization costs,
  
• yet they are sold at ASPs of around $50,000, close to the Fremont prices.

These look like incredible margin advantages, even with the transportation costs of battery packs and seats.

(Also paging @ReflexFunds and @The Accountant.)

 

[EVNow]

• yet they are sold at ASPs of around $50,000, close to the Fremont prices.

Yes, if they can maintain the price and sell 3k/wk it would have good margin. One thing to remember though is that battery cost be higher because of shipment costs, even without tariffs.

At this price, Model 3 would be 15% cheaper than BMW 3 series - because of sales tax exemption + incentives.

 

[Mkorpal]

That's what I'm thinking. Schedule a ship a week now, then add as needed. BTW, I don't think these ships are ever completely empty. Kind of like those big moving vans on the highway carrying 4-6 households worth of furniture. Drop one load off here, pick up another one there. When Zach said they were fully loading ships people got carried away doing 6k cars per ship math, but that's not how it works.

Anyway, I normally think in terms of a 20% seasonal drop from Q4 to Q1. The Q1 US drop was much worse, though, over 50% for S/X and over 60% for Model 3. And it would have been even worse without the three price cuts in January and February. The tax credit cut obviously exacerbated the seasonal effect, but there was more to it than that. Also, S/X fell 62% in Europe with more than half coming from the Netherlands (-98% on incentive cuts).

I thought they'd reduce Fremont Model 3 output in Q1 2020 to accelerate the Model Y transition, but Elon shot that idea down. So if Fremont makes 90k Model 3s next quarter, where do they go?

30k - US (-30% from Q4 but +30% Y/Y)
10k - UK (+100% from Q3/Q4 on new incentive starting April 6)
2k - The Netherlands (-85% on BIK change)
13k - Rest of Europe (return to Q3 levels after being starved in Q4)
2k - Canada (??)
1k - China
5k - Korea, Australia, etc.
------
63k

I can't see them adding 27k to inventory. What am I missing?

I don't see meaningful cell production in 2020. GF1 can fully supply Fremont, IMHO, and LG/CATL will supply GF3. Cell production is hard, and you can't fix mistakes with OTAs. I see a single line making low volumes of cells around mid-year, with an eye toward real production in 2021.

I think Canada might see a small bump in demand due to the completion of the Trans Canada supercharger route.

 

[Maitri982]

Hi All...

I have been trying to keep up with this board, but only have time to skim posts. But I am serious investor of this stock (up 7 figures this year on equity and converts combined). Here are some thoughts:

• the shorts are often morally bankrupt or are being paid to do their dirty work...who knows. We should be better than them. Wishing them to die is not proper or decent. They need to learn decency...maybe they never will...but we should be better.
• So gloating over and over about shorts burning when the price rockets like it has, is their MO...we can be better. We need to save the planet you know, but we also need to save humanity from the horribleness we often see on the net. If we can't set such an example who will? Up to you, but beware karma.
• I surely don't want the shorts to succeed and have zero respect for many of them and their bevavior. So like many of you of course i get some level of satisfaction when I see Tesla succeed and that their efforts to lie/cheat/bully...etc etc...to make TSLA fail are not working. But I keep this feeling/satisfaction within me.
• I drive a Tesla Model X. i paid nearly 120K for it. Thats a lot of Cheddar. I have HW3. I got latest update. We are long way from FSD. Sorry for those who think otherwise and I dont want to argue bout it. It's simply a huge problem and not going to be solved any time soon. The way I look at it is Tesla is better than all other carmakers, and their self driving is way ahead of all the others, so this helps them sell cars and this is good for the environment, the world and investors. They will get better and better over time.
• People asking for city driving? I want it first to do a lot better on highway driving! It's quite good and reduces my driving burden by a huge amount...but i MUST pay close attention. Solve that first before worrying about much harder city driving. If Telsa could just get geofenced true self driving on major highways in good weather, that would be great.
• These forums are great and full of so many smart people, but it is 95% or more bulls, so we need to always be careful of groupthink. We should be glad TSLA has done well, but also be asking "what can go wrong?" This is just the prudent thing to do.
• I wish people would stop posting that they are "not selling till Tesla reaches a $ga-jillion!!!". This adds nothing to the discussion here.
• I gets tiresome when people defend every single thing Musk does when he obviously does some stupid sheet sometimes. The guy is incredible, OK? But he is not infallible and does amazingly stupid things sometimes for a super smart guy. Having these two traits (being incredibly amazing at getting world changing things done and being at the same time really dumb about obvious things...and sometimes a little full of it too) are not necessarily mutually exclusive, OK? Let the guy be a human being with his failings and successes, but defending obvious flaws makes us look cultish. You have to know with him how to parse the sometimes BS with reality. I give him slack too because of the amazing things he has done, but i am not blind either.
• What I would really like to do is a deep analysis of the revenues going forward. There are people here who are much better at that than I am. I have attached an image of a spreadsheet (TMC wont let me load actual sheet) that is perhaps something we can start with. I hope you all agree that as investors in TSLA we should try to model the revs, margins, etc going out several years. Of course its a guessing game, but we have enough history and informed people that I think we can take a good shot at it. I note that the 2020 numbers I put in there are only made up numbers and not meant to be real. I am hoping people here like fact checking, karen etc can make this more accurate.
• Since this is an investors forum, I think this type of analysis is what we should be doing so we can get some handle on what the stock price fair value is given future returns.

I wish you all a great new year of peace and joy. I hope Tesla and the transition to sustainable energy take off in this new decade...we really have no choice but for that to happen.

 

[Maitri982]

So is anyone going to take a shot at the spreadsheet I posted? While it’s fine to keep speculating whether tesla will deliver 100,000 or 105,000 or whatever # this qtr, I think most people here are long term investors and would benefit from such analysis.

 

[kengchang]

So is anyone going to take a shot at the spreadsheet I posted? While it’s fine to keep speculating whether tesla will deliver 100,000 or 105,000 or whatever # this qtr, I think most people here are long term investors and would benefit from such analysis.

You should fix your ASP on the S/X first....

 

[Maitri982]

You should fix your ASP on the S/X first....

did you read my post? I said the numbers I filled in were made up.

 

[ggr]

did you read my post? I said the numbers I filled in were made up.

I guess I don't understand what feedback you want other than "the numbers are made up and hence useless." What do you want people to review?

 

[kengchang]

did you read my post? I said the numbers I filled in were made up.

There are 2-3 people with very detailed excel sheet over at Near-future quarterly financial projections

 

[Maitri982]

I guess I don't understand what feedback you want other than "the numbers are made up and hence useless." What do you want people to review?

I don’t know enough compared to many here to make these projections...so I wanted others more informed than me to take a shot at it then we can discuss, tweak, etc.

So I am asking if others want to fill the whole thing in.

 

[Troy]

Hi everybody. Here is a survey where people can enter their own delivery estimates for Q4 2019. I simplified it. There is now only 1 number to enter.

 

[kengchang]

Hi everybody. Here is a survey where people can enter their own delivery estimates for Q4 2019. I simplified it. There is now only 1 number to enter.

I think your APAC # is too low, Taiwan alone has like 1500 in Nov/Dec.

 

[KarenRei]

I don’t know enough compared to many here to make these projections...so I wanted others more informed than me to take a shot at it then we can discuss, tweak, etc.

So I am asking if others want to fill the whole thing in.

I think you should join the above linked thread, start reading over it, and then ask questions there.

 

[Troy]

I think your APAC # is too low, Taiwan alone has like 1500 in Nov/Dec.

You might be right. Let me know if you have estimates for these countries:

Korea
Taiwan
Hong-Kong
Japan
Australia and New Zealand

 

[ZeApelido]

Hi guys,

I spent a lot of time making this detailed estimate of how TSLA is going to $10,000.

See attached spreadsheet.




PS. Attachment is blank. I did everything in my head. Can you please make up an entire spreadsheet and fill in all the details getting to that valuation?

It's the least you can do for all the hard work I put in.

 

[kengchang]

You might be right. Let me know if you have estimates for these countries:

Korea
Taiwan
Hong-Kong
Japan
Australia and New Zealand

South Korea - Didn't they get a boat before 2nd stop at China? So like 2K?
Taiwan - 2K
HK - I have seen someone on Twitter from HK with still undelivered Q3 order on LR AWD, probably starved to death. 500 at the most?
Japan - 1K should be doable
Australia/NZ - 2~3K?

These are all highly speculated number other than the confirmed Taiwan number.

I have to get off my lazy ass and work on the parser.

 

[Krugerrand]

Hi guys,

I spent a lot of time making this detailed estimate of how TSLA is going to $10,000.

See attached spreadsheet.




PS. Attachment is blank. I did everything in my head. Can you please make up an entire spreadsheet and fill in all the details getting to that valuation?

It's the least you can do for all the hard work I put in.

Columns 1 thru 4 you can fill in with the value of 83,000.