As predicted, warned, pointed out...
It ain't over till the fat lady sings. We'll see what Tesla will actually does in terms of M3 deliveries in Q3 when we get there. In terms of CapEx, it wasn't that far off.
-
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
- Start date
It ain't over till the fat lady sings. We'll see what Tesla will actually does in terms of M3 deliveries in Q3 when we get there. In terms of CapEx, it wasn't that far off.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Off by nearly $600M, even if we assume $2.5B, which the company said it will be less than $2.5B.
If it's this difficult for you to appreciate a solid forecast, which was unexpected by most, this thread is not for me. Cheers!
Yuri_G
Member
Almost spot on with Q2 revenue. Kudos!
i can't do a full reconciliation easily due to the complexity of the model, but just quick shots:
* my auto sales estimate within 200k of actual
* my total revenue estimate within 5m of actual (<0.2% error)
* cogs i am about 2.5% high, so tesla beats on my margin estimates overall.
* opex they went much higher than i thought
* operating income nets out though and i end up within 15m (<2.5% error).
* net income to common i miss by less than 25m.
* they beat my non-gaap number meaningfully due to higher stock based comp - much higher than high had estimated perhaps on restructuring.
* on cash from ops, they do better than i thought by about 60m
* on capex better than i thought by 100m
* on cash from financing they pulled in an extra 150m or so vs what i modeled. note that it's virtually impossible to model that part as it is largely choices management makes.
* the netting of all that cash gets them a few hundred million better than i expected at 2.24b ending the quarter.
* inventory comes in higher than i thought, this means that cash could have been even another 100-200m better than i was modeling if not for the build.
so to summarize:
revenue on target
cost of goods sold better than expected
opex worse than expected - although stock based comp was up a lot so that means some non-cash components there
cash from ops slightly better than expected
capex spend controlled better than expected
within model 3, my initial take is gross margins are better than i expected meaningfully, asp is lower than i expected meaningfully. and that's just fine b/c it means they will make good money even later in the order book. i feel like it is virtually certain that model 3 gross margin in q3 will be greater than 10% and the given target of 15% is fully realistic imo.
this is great news imo for margins being on track, and for cash to not be an issue. cash balances will rise likely towards 3b going to the end of this year.
* my auto sales estimate within 200k of actual
* my total revenue estimate within 5m of actual (<0.2% error)
* cogs i am about 2.5% high, so tesla beats on my margin estimates overall.
* opex they went much higher than i thought
* operating income nets out though and i end up within 15m (<2.5% error).
* net income to common i miss by less than 25m.
* they beat my non-gaap number meaningfully due to higher stock based comp - much higher than high had estimated perhaps on restructuring.
* on cash from ops, they do better than i thought by about 60m
* on capex better than i thought by 100m
* on cash from financing they pulled in an extra 150m or so vs what i modeled. note that it's virtually impossible to model that part as it is largely choices management makes.
* the netting of all that cash gets them a few hundred million better than i expected at 2.24b ending the quarter.
* inventory comes in higher than i thought, this means that cash could have been even another 100-200m better than i was modeling if not for the build.
so to summarize:
revenue on target
cost of goods sold better than expected
opex worse than expected - although stock based comp was up a lot so that means some non-cash components there
cash from ops slightly better than expected
capex spend controlled better than expected
within model 3, my initial take is gross margins are better than i expected meaningfully, asp is lower than i expected meaningfully. and that's just fine b/c it means they will make good money even later in the order book. i feel like it is virtually certain that model 3 gross margin in q3 will be greater than 10% and the given target of 15% is fully realistic imo.
this is great news imo for margins being on track, and for cash to not be an issue. cash balances will rise likely towards 3b going to the end of this year.
bdy0627
Active Member
Thanks again for this thread Luv. Incredibly valuable stuff.
You did excellent modelling.
I'll be interested to see your updated model for Q3/Q4 with the new information. (Lower ASPs, lower cost of production, etc.) When you get to it.
A reminder to everyone that it's an economies of scale business. If you underestimate the economies of scale, then the gross margins are better than you think but the fixed costs are higher than you think...
I want to be annoyed that my stock is being diluted, but since it's going to the hardworking Tesla employees who clearly deserve it, I'm actually happy.
I'll be interested to see your updated model for Q3/Q4 with the new information. (Lower ASPs, lower cost of production, etc.) When you get to it.
I want to be annoyed that my stock is being diluted, but since it's going to the hardworking Tesla employees who clearly deserve it, I'm actually happy.
/|\
. |
This.
If any Tesla employees - or ex-employees who were caught up in the layoffs - are reading this: you guys rock. Thank you so much for all you've done.
(Back to our regularly-scheduled conversation)
i'd prefer to wait until the 10q to post something, but a preliminary look indicates that q3/q4 while close to my model need to be adjusted lower.
despite tesla doing well operationally they increased opex by more than enough to offset. adding 1-2% of gross margin can't fully offset what could be 100m in new opex.
the bears i think will latch on to the opex increase and say that tesla is moving cogs into opex. it is odd actually that opex goes up when you had a barnacle cleaning, layoffs of 9% of the workforce, and cost discipline. how does opex (excluding one-time restructuring) rise in the face of all of that?
the other really good news is the cash trajectory is quite a bit better than i thought.
despite tesla doing well operationally they increased opex by more than enough to offset. adding 1-2% of gross margin can't fully offset what could be 100m in new opex.
the bears i think will latch on to the opex increase and say that tesla is moving cogs into opex. it is odd actually that opex goes up when you had a barnacle cleaning, layoffs of 9% of the workforce, and cost discipline. how does opex (excluding one-time restructuring) rise in the face of all of that?
the other really good news is the cash trajectory is quite a bit better than i thought.
You did excellent modelling.
A reminder to everyone that it's an economies of scale business. If you underestimate the economies of scale, then the gross margins are better than you think but the fixed costs are higher than you think...
I want to be annoyed that my stock is being diluted, but since it's going to the hardworking Tesla employees who clearly deserve it, I'm actually happy.
I'll be interested to see your updated model for Q3/Q4 with the new information. (Lower ASPs, lower cost of production, etc.) When you get to it.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Please keep in mind that opex includes over 2 month pay for all people that got laid off. So opex will be lower in Q3
Great job @luvb2b well done. And to reiterate what @Zhelko Dimic said, I believe the effects of the layoffs won’t show up until Q3.
So, lower variable expenses, but higher fixed (not-per-car) expenses. Where might we see higher fixed expenses? Let's brainstorm. Heating the tent?
Oh right. Probably includes severance pay, which typically gets lump-summed.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Severance was separate. But people were employed in Q2 for over 2 months before layoffs. Their salary comes off in Q3. Not sure if luv already modeled Q2 with this understanding, probably did. Too tired tnt to dig into it...
Customer deposits at start of Q2 : 984,823. (Totals in x$1,000)
S/X in transit start of Q2 but delivered in Q2 : 4060, prepayment on these cars $2,500. Effect on deposits - 10,150
3 in transit start of Q2 but delivered in Q2 : 2040, prepayment on these cars $3,000. Effect on deposits - 7,140
Model 3 delivered in Q2, ordered in Q1 : 8440, prepayment on these cars $3,500. Effect on deposits - 29,540
Model 3 delivered in Q3, ordered in Q2: 10000, prepayment on these cars $1,000. Effect on deposits - 10,000
Powerwall installations in Q3 : 20,000, prepayment on these $500. Effect on deposits -10,000
S/X in transit end of Q2 3,892, prepayment on these cars $2,500. Effect on deposits +9,730
3 in transit start end of Q2 : 11,166, prepayment on these cars $3,500. Effect on deposits + 38,906
3 ordered in Q2 but not yet produced : 10,000, prepayment on these cars $2,500. Effect on deposits +25,000
Expected customer deposits at end of Q2 : 991,629. Actual deposits 942,129.
Net outflow of deposits through cancellations and/or shrinking order book are therefore in the order of $50M this quarter. Note this is over the full product lineup, not necessarily over Model 3. Still, seems rather high.
Note. Sometimes customers pay in full before delivery (in case of wire transfer, etc...) or they trade in their previous car with Tesla before they take delivery of the new one. When such transactions happen over a quarter border, then those amount will also show up on the customer deposit line. Since the cars in transit grew this quarter, not counting this effect results in underestimating the net cancellation rate. Undocumented assumptions 1) 20,000 powerwall installations this quarter 2) 10,000 model 3 were ordered in Q2 but had not yet been produced
S/X in transit start of Q2 but delivered in Q2 : 4060, prepayment on these cars $2,500. Effect on deposits - 10,150
3 in transit start of Q2 but delivered in Q2 : 2040, prepayment on these cars $3,000. Effect on deposits - 7,140
Model 3 delivered in Q2, ordered in Q1 : 8440, prepayment on these cars $3,500. Effect on deposits - 29,540
Model 3 delivered in Q3, ordered in Q2: 10000, prepayment on these cars $1,000. Effect on deposits - 10,000
Powerwall installations in Q3 : 20,000, prepayment on these $500. Effect on deposits -10,000
S/X in transit end of Q2 3,892, prepayment on these cars $2,500. Effect on deposits +9,730
3 in transit start end of Q2 : 11,166, prepayment on these cars $3,500. Effect on deposits + 38,906
3 ordered in Q2 but not yet produced : 10,000, prepayment on these cars $2,500. Effect on deposits +25,000
Expected customer deposits at end of Q2 : 991,629. Actual deposits 942,129.
Net outflow of deposits through cancellations and/or shrinking order book are therefore in the order of $50M this quarter. Note this is over the full product lineup, not necessarily over Model 3. Still, seems rather high.
Note. Sometimes customers pay in full before delivery (in case of wire transfer, etc...) or they trade in their previous car with Tesla before they take delivery of the new one. When such transactions happen over a quarter border, then those amount will also show up on the customer deposit line. Since the cars in transit grew this quarter, not counting this effect results in underestimating the net cancellation rate. Undocumented assumptions 1) 20,000 powerwall installations this quarter 2) 10,000 model 3 were ordered in Q2 but had not yet been produced
A reduction of cars in-transit to markets with tariffs would have a higher net effect than just the order deposit amount times the difference of cars in-transit.
Last edited:
i'm going to post a very preliminary model update with likely many errors. a lot of different pieces i had to lump into different buckets that will get sorted out with the 10q filing. normally i don't like to put out such preliminary (ahem garbage) type of stuff, but thought it might help energize the discussion.
you will see the opex increasing forces me to take down q3/q4 overall numbers despite better gross margin.
[TD2]
luv q4-18e
[/TD2][TD2]
luv q3-18e
[/TD2][TD2]
Jun-18
[/TD2][TD2]
Mar-18
[/TD2]
[TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]10,939[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2]
[TD2]13,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]11,380[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2]
[TD2]
28,000
[/TD2][TD2]
27,000
[/TD2][TD2]
22,319
[/TD2][TD2]
21,815
[/TD2]
[TD2]
60,000
[/TD2][TD2]
50,000
[/TD2][TD2]
18,449
[/TD2][TD2]
8,182
[/TD2]
[TD2]
60,000
[/TD2][TD2]
50,000
[/TD2][TD2]
28,578
[/TD2][TD2]
9,766
[/TD2]
[TD2]
140,000
[/TD2][TD2]
140,000
[/TD2][TD2]
125,000
[/TD2][TD2]
105,000
[/TD2]
[TD2]
2.33
[/TD2][TD2]
2.80
[/TD2][TD2]
4.37
[/TD2][TD2]
10.75
[/TD2]
[TD2]
2.44
[/TD2][TD2]
3.15
[/TD2][TD2]
5.08
[/TD2][TD2]
13.74
[/TD2]
[TD2]
-0.04
[/TD2][TD2]
-0.05
[/TD2][TD2]
-0.09
[/TD2][TD2]
-0.25
[/TD2]
[TD2]
0.07
[/TD2][TD2]
0.07
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2]
[TD2]
103.00
[/TD2][TD2]
104.00
[/TD2][TD2]
105.88
[/TD2][TD2]
105.76
[/TD2]
[TD2]
58.00
[/TD2][TD2]
60.00
[/TD2][TD2]
55.00
[/TD2][TD2]
56.00
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,682,120[/TD2][TD2]2,611,440[/TD2][TD2]2,103,170[/TD2][TD2]2,053,375[/TD2]
[TD2]3,480,000[/TD2][TD2]3,000,000[/TD2][TD2]1,014,695[/TD2][TD2]458,192[/TD2]
[TD2]197,493[/TD2][TD2]201,052[/TD2][TD2]239,816[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2]
[TD2]
6,459,613
[/TD2][TD2]
5,912,492
[/TD2][TD2]
3,357,681
[/TD2][TD2]
2,735,317
[/TD2]
[TD2]175,000[/TD2][TD2]132,500[/TD2][TD2]134,408[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2]
[TD2]226,800[/TD2][TD2]220,500[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]270,142[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2]
[TD2]
7,161,413
[/TD2][TD2]
6,565,492
[/TD2][TD2]
4,002,231
[/TD2][TD2]
3,408,751
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,004,518[/TD2][TD2]1,952,571[/TD2][TD2]1,565,779[/TD2][TD2]1,540,031[/TD2]
[TD2]2,714,400[/TD2][TD2]2,430,000[/TD2][TD2]963,960[/TD2][TD2]551,366[/TD2]
[TD2]126,395[/TD2][TD2]128,673[/TD2][TD2]136,915[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2]
[TD2]
4,845,313
[/TD2][TD2]
4,511,244
[/TD2][TD2]
2,666,654
[/TD2][TD2]
2,195,893
[/TD2]
[TD2]175,000[/TD2][TD2]139,125[/TD2][TD2]162,273[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2]
[TD2]158,760[/TD2][TD2]154,350[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2]
[TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2]
[TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]384,000[/TD2][TD2]375,374[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2]
[TD2]
5,565,072
[/TD2][TD2]
5,199,718
[/TD2][TD2]
3,383,301
[/TD2][TD2]
2,952,225
[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,596,340
[/TD2][TD2]
1,365,774
[/TD2][TD2]
618,930
[/TD2][TD2]
456,526
[/TD2]
[TD2]28.5%[/TD2][TD2]28.5%[/TD2][TD2]27.3%[/TD2][TD2]27.8%[/TD2]
[TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.3%[/TD2][TD2]26.1%[/TD2]
[TD2]22.0%[/TD2][TD2]19.0%[/TD2][TD2]5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-20.3%[/TD2]
[TD2]23.8%[/TD2][TD2]22.4%[/TD2][TD2]20.6%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2]
[TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-20.7%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2]
[TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-28.0%[/TD2][TD2]-39.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2]
[TD2]340,000[/TD2][TD2]325,000[/TD2][TD2]341,129[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2]
[TD2]595,000[/TD2][TD2]580,000[/TD2][TD2]610,759[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]103,434[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]42,000[/TD2][TD2]40,905[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2]
[TD2]132,000[/TD2][TD2]127,260[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,109,000
[/TD2][TD2]
1,073,165
[/TD2][TD2]
1,240,322
[/TD2][TD2]
1,053,500
[/TD2]
[TD2]
487,340
[/TD2][TD2]
292,609
[/TD2][TD2]
-621,392
[/TD2][TD2]
-596,974
[/TD2]
[TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]5,064[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2]
[TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-110,582[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2]
[TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2]
[TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]50,911[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
321,340
[/TD2][TD2]
126,609
[/TD2][TD2]
-728,999
[/TD2][TD2]
-779,022
[/TD2]
[TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]13,707[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2]
[TD2]
301,341
[/TD2][TD2]
106,610
[/TD2][TD2]
-742,706
[/TD2][TD2]
-784,627
[/TD2]
[TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-25,167[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2]
[TD2]
351,342
[/TD2][TD2]
156,611
[/TD2][TD2]
-717,539
[/TD2][TD2]
-709,551
[/TD2]
[TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,900[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2]
[TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]181,900[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2]
[TD2]
1.92
[/TD2][TD2]
0.86
[/TD2][TD2]
-4.22
[/TD2][TD2]
-4.19
[/TD2]
[TD2]351,342[/TD2][TD2]156,611[/TD2][TD2]-717,539[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2]
[TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]484,342[/TD2][TD2]289,611[/TD2][TD2]-520,195[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2]
[TD2]
2.65
[/TD2][TD2]
1.59
[/TD2][TD2]
-3.06
[/TD2][TD2]
-3.36
[/TD2]
[TD2]3,370,898[/TD2][TD2]2,849,748[/TD2][TD2]2,236,424[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2]
[TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]146,822[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2]
[TD2]1,177,219[/TD2][TD2]1,079,259[/TD2][TD2]569,874[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2]
[TD2]4,391,071[/TD2][TD2]4,558,657[/TD2][TD2]3,324,643[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2]
[TD2]349,048[/TD2][TD2]337,074[/TD2][TD2]422,034[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2]
[TD2]
9,438,235
[/TD2][TD2]
8,954,738
[/TD2][TD2]
6,699,797
[/TD2][TD2]
6,383,920
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,209,363[/TD2][TD2]2,248,911[/TD2][TD2]2,282,047[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2]
[TD2]6,333,264[/TD2][TD2]6,336,631[/TD2][TD2]6,340,031[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2]
[TD2]11,933,736[/TD2][TD2]11,404,808[/TD2][TD2]10,969,348[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2]
[TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]364,690[/TD2][TD2]346,428[/TD2]
[TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2]
[TD2]420,841[/TD2][TD2]427,841[/TD2][TD2]434,841[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2]
[TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]399,992[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2]
[TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]419,254[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2]
[TD2]
31,470,301
[/TD2][TD2]
30,507,791
[/TD2][TD2]
27,910,000
[/TD2][TD2]
27,271,429
[/TD2]
[TD2]4,696,006[/TD2][TD2]4,615,640[/TD2][TD2]3,030,493[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2]
[TD2]2,218,000[/TD2][TD2]2,092,672[/TD2][TD2]1,814,979[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2]
[TD2]530,247[/TD2][TD2]539,739[/TD2][TD2]576,321[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2]
[TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]674,255[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2]
[TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]942,129[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2]
[TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]2,103,185[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2]
[TD2]
10,609,253
[/TD2][TD2]
10,413,050
[/TD2][TD2]
9,141,362
[/TD2][TD2]
8,650,359
[/TD2]
[TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]9,200,000[/TD2][TD2]9,513,390[/TD2][TD2]8,761,070[/TD2]
[TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2]
[TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2]
[TD2]773,277[/TD2][TD2]787,119[/TD2][TD2]795,820[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2]
[TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]670,000[/TD2][TD2]584,857[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2]
[TD2]3,049,750[/TD2][TD2]2,897,546[/TD2][TD2]2,607,458[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
24,084,899
[/TD2][TD2]
23,970,334
[/TD2][TD2]
22,642,887
[/TD2][TD2]
21,551,021
[/TD2]
[TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]539,536[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2]
[TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]821,156[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2]
[TD2]
6,082,459
[/TD2][TD2]
5,234,514
[/TD2][TD2]
3,906,421
[/TD2][TD2]
4,450,695
[/TD2]
[TD2]301,341[/TD2][TD2]106,610[/TD2][TD2]-742,706[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2]
[TD2]465,416[/TD2][TD2]444,788[/TD2][TD2]485,255[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2]
[TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2]
[TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]97,432[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2]
[TD2]45,587[/TD2][TD2]33,246[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2]
[TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2]
[TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2]
[TD2]-97,960[/TD2][TD2]-509,385[/TD2][TD2]82,974[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2]
[TD2]207,134[/TD2][TD2]-1,200,878[/TD2][TD2]-733,192[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2]
[TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2]
[TD2]155,694[/TD2][TD2]1,812,840[/TD2][TD2]293,543[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]22,871[/TD2][TD2]-42,694[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,375,212
[/TD2][TD2]
998,092
[/TD2][TD2]
-129,664
[/TD2][TD2]
-398,376
[/TD2]
[TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-600,000[/TD2][TD2]-609,813[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2]
[TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-67,400[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2]
[TD2]
-760,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-660,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-682,817
[/TD2][TD2]
-728,637
[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]244,196[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2]
[TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]114,069[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-113,426[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]31,053[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2]
[TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2]
[TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]122,730[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2]
[TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2]
[TD2]
-142,000
[/TD2][TD2]
258,000
[/TD2][TD2]
398,622
[/TD2][TD2]
371,660
[/TD2]
[TD2]47,937[/TD2][TD2]17,232[/TD2][TD2]-22,611[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2]
[TD2]
521,149
[/TD2][TD2]
613,324
[/TD2][TD2]
-436,470
[/TD2][TD2]
-745,251
[/TD2]
[TD2]
2,849,748
[/TD2][TD2]
2,236,424
[/TD2][TD2]
2,665,673
[/TD2][TD2]
3,367,914
[/TD2]
[TD2]
3,370,898
[/TD2][TD2]
2,849,748
[/TD2][TD2]
2,236,424
[/TD2][TD2]
2,665,673
[/TD2]
you will see the opex increasing forces me to take down q3/q4 overall numbers despite better gross margin.
| … |
| s deliveries |
| x deliveries |
| s+x deliveries |
| 3 deliveries |
| 3 production |
| est model 3 manuf deprctn |
| per model 3 |
| blended manuf deprctn per 3 |
| gross margin impact |
| lease s/x % veh |
| avg price s+x |
| avg price model 3 |
| revenue |
| auto sales ex 3 |
| auto sales mod 3 |
| auto leasing |
| 1 time autopilot |
| zev credits |
| total auto |
| energy storage |
| solarcity |
| grohmann |
| services/other |
| total revenue |
| cost of revenue |
| auto sales ex 3 |
| auto sales mod 3 |
| auto leasing |
| total auto |
| energy storage |
| solarcity |
| grohmann |
| services & other |
| total cost of rev |
| gross profit |
| auto gaap ex 3 gm |
| auto-zev ex 3 gm |
| model 3 gm |
| auto-zev incl 3 gm |
| storage gm |
| scty gm |
| grohmann gm |
| services gm |
| opex |
| tesla r&d |
| tesla sg&a |
| 1 time costs |
| solarcity r&d |
| solarcity sg&a |
| total opex |
| op income |
| interest inc |
| interest exp |
| scty interest |
| other income exp |
| 1time scty gain |
| pretax income |
| income tax |
| net income |
| non-cont int. |
| net inc to common |
| basic shares |
| diluted shares |
| diluted gaap eps |
| gaap net income |
| + stock based comp |
| + one time scty |
| non-gaap net income |
| non-gaap diluted eps |
| balance sheet |
| current assets |
| cash & eq. |
| restricted cash |
| accts rcvbl |
| inventory |
| prepaids+other |
| total current assets |
| op lease vehicles |
| solar energy sys |
| pp&e |
| intangible assets |
| goodwill |
| mypower rcvbls |
| restricted cash |
| other assets |
| total assets |
| current liabiliites |
| accts payable |
| accrued liabs+other |
| deferred revenue |
| resale value guar |
| cust deposits |
| curr debt+leases |
| curr solar bonds |
| total current liabs |
| lt debt+leases |
| solar bonds |
| rel party conv debt |
| deferred revenue |
| resale value guar |
| other lt liabilities |
| comm stk warrants |
| capital lease oblg |
| total liabilities |
| commits/contings |
| rdmbl ncis in subs |
| conv senior notes |
| nci in subsidiaries |
| common equity |
| cash flow statement |
| cash flows from ops |
| net loss |
| dep/amortization |
| stock-based comp |
| am of debt discount |
| inv write-down |
| loss on disposals |
| forex loss (gain) |
| loss on acq scty |
| non-cash int/other |
| chgs in op as/lb |
| accts rcbl |
| inv / op leases |
| prepaids/other ca |
| mypower rcvbls + other |
| accts pybl/accr liabs |
| deferred revenue |
| customer deposits |
| other lt liabs |
| net cash from ops |
| cash flows from inv |
| pp&e purchases |
| purchase solar sys |
| net cash from inv |
| cash flows from fin |
| stock issued |
| debt issued |
| debt repayments |
| rel pty solar repaids |
| coll lease borrowing |
| stock option excrs |
| capital lease paids |
| stock+debt issue cost |
| investment by nci in subs |
| dist to nci in subs |
| buyouts of nci in subs |
| net cash from fin |
| forex effect |
| net change in cash |
| cash & eq start |
| cash & eq end |
I believe only China falls under prepaid tariffs coming into customer deposits. Revenue in China has been so rock solidly pinned to $500M for the last quarter or 6 that I don't see any meaningfull variation there. But yes, it could make a big difference.
I am pretty happy with the performance of my model. I was just $25M off on Automotive revenue for cars sold and $38M on costs. Around 1-2%. Yet, I was totally wrong on vehicle leasing income and costs. And I don't understand why. 6% of the cars was sold under lease (2446) That's super comparable to the 2400 from last quarter. Yet leasing income and costs are really different. (173M -> 239M on rev and 104M->136M on costs). That's +35%. How come?
I too will tweak things as we get the 10-Q. Spoiler : I don't see any reason to change my gross margin predictions on Model 3 (14% in q3, 16% in q4) so that is clearly more negative than @luvb2b. But I do also need to up SG&A and R&D a bit which will likely tip my Q3 profitability into the negative...
I too will tweak things as we get the 10-Q. Spoiler : I don't see any reason to change my gross margin predictions on Model 3 (14% in q3, 16% in q4) so that is clearly more negative than @luvb2b. But I do also need to up SG&A and R&D a bit which will likely tip my Q3 profitability into the negative...
bdy0627
Active Member
I'll start off. I think your Q3 delivery numbers are low. Inside-Evs guesses 14250 for July, and the questionable numbers from the bear who's getting leaks from the factory indicates an average rate in excess of 4500/week exiting July. 50K is really too pessimistic. I'm expecting more like 55K-56K.
