sorry it took so long to post an update. i had some reservations about assuming 150m in zev credits in q3, mainly because that would make the ttm zev credit total $380m, and i'm not sure the market is that large. the prior high for a 12 month window was $330m. some changes have been made to my historical estimates of various things. for example, asp for model 3 i took higher (and s/x lower) as i realized non-zev credits rolled into revenue would have to be modeled through higher asp's than what are calculated from public surveys.
my gaap estimates dropped a bit but stock comp is a meaningful factor there, so non-gaap earnings didn't change so much. cash generation also seems like it can be quite good.
i don't know about you guys, but i am getting a bit worn out always taking numbers and nudging them lower or extending them out. if these estimates turn out correct it's likely that any possible s&p 500 addition would get pushed out another 3-6 months (after 19q3 or 19q4 reports). at some point the bull market we are in will end and tesla will have to weather sales in a weaker economy and they definitely don't have enough profit cushion to do that now.
… |
s deliveries |
x deliveries |
s+x deliveries |
lease s/x % veh |
avg price s+x |
avg price model 3 |
|
revenue |
auto sales ex 3 |
auto sales mod 3 |
auto leasing |
1 time autopilot |
zev credits |
total auto |
|
energy storage |
solarcity |
grohmann |
services/other |
total revenue |
|
cost of revenue |
auto sales ex 3 |
auto sales mod 3 |
auto leasing |
total auto |
energy storage |
solarcity |
grohmann |
services & other |
total cost of rev |
|
gross profit |
|
auto gaap ex 3 gm |
auto-zev ex 3 gm |
model 3 gm |
auto-zev incl 3 gm |
storage gm |
scty gm |
grohmann gm |
services gm |
|
opex |
tesla r&d |
tesla sg&a |
1 time costs |
solarcity r&d |
solarcity sg&a |
total opex |
|
op income |
|
interest inc |
interest exp |
scty interest |
other income exp |
1time scty gain |
pretax income |
income tax |
net income |
non-cont int. |
net inc to common |
|
basic shares |
diluted shares |
|
diluted gaap eps |
gaap net income |
+ stock based comp |
+ one time scty |
non-gaap net income |
non-gaap diluted eps |
|
|
balance sheet |
current assets |
cash & eq. |
restricted cash |
accts rcvbl |
inventory |
prepaids+other |
total current assets |
|
op lease vehicles |
solar energy sys |
pp&e |
intangible assets |
goodwill |
mypower rcvbls |
restricted cash |
other assets |
total assets |
|
current liabiliites |
accts payable |
accrued liabs+other |
deferred revenue |
resale value guar |
cust deposits |
curr debt+leases |
curr solar bonds |
total current liabs |
|
lt debt+leases |
solar bonds |
rel party conv debt |
deferred revenue |
resale value guar |
other lt liabilities |
comm stk warrants |
capital lease oblg |
total liabilities |
|
commits/contings |
rdmbl ncis in subs |
conv senior notes |
nci in subsidiaries |
|
common equity |
|
|
cash flow statement |
cash flows from ops |
net loss |
dep/amortization |
stock-based comp |
am of debt discount |
inv write-down |
loss on disposals |
forex loss (gain) |
loss on acq scty |
non-cash int/other |
|
chgs in op as/lb |
accts rcbl |
inv / op leases |
prepaids/other ca |
mypower rcvbls + other |
accts pybl/accr liabs |
deferred revenue |
customer deposits |
other lt liabs |
net cash from ops |
|
cash flows from inv |
pp&e purchases |
purchase solar sys |
net cash from inv |
|
cash flows from fin |
stock issued |
debt issued |
debt repayments |
rel pty solar repaids |
coll lease borrowing |
stock option excrs |
capital lease paids |
stock+debt issue cost |
investment by nci in subs |
dist to nci in subs |
buyouts of nci in subs |
net cash from fin |
forex effect |
net change in cash |
cash & eq start |
cash & eq end |
[TD2]
luv q4-18e
[/TD2][TD2]
luv q3-18e
[/TD2][TD2]
Jun-18
[/TD2][TD2]
Mar-18
[/TD2]
[TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]10,939[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2]
[TD2]13,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]11,380[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2]
[TD2]
28,000
[/TD2][TD2]
27,000
[/TD2][TD2]
22,319
[/TD2][TD2]
21,815
[/TD2]
[TD2]
0.07
[/TD2][TD2]
0.07
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2]
[TD2]
103.00
[/TD2][TD2]
104.00
[/TD2][TD2]
105.14
[/TD2][TD2]
105.42
[/TD2]
[TD2]
58.00
[/TD2][TD2]
60.00
[/TD2][TD2]
55.80
[/TD2][TD2]
56.80
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,682,120[/TD2][TD2]2,611,440[/TD2][TD2]2,088,411[/TD2][TD2]2,046,829[/TD2]
[TD2]3,480,000[/TD2][TD2]3,000,000[/TD2][TD2]1,029,454[/TD2][TD2]464,738[/TD2]
[TD2]197,493[/TD2][TD2]201,052[/TD2][TD2]239,816[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2]
[TD2]
6,459,613
[/TD2][TD2]
5,912,492
[/TD2][TD2]
3,357,681
[/TD2][TD2]
2,735,317
[/TD2]
[TD2]185,500[/TD2][TD2]140,450[/TD2][TD2]111,651[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2]
[TD2]237,600[/TD2][TD2]231,000[/TD2][TD2]262,757[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]270,142[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2]
[TD2]
7,182,713
[/TD2][TD2]
6,583,942
[/TD2][TD2]
4,002,231
[/TD2][TD2]
3,408,751
[/TD2]
[TD2]1,979,672[/TD2][TD2]1,928,467[/TD2][TD2]1,546,610[/TD2][TD2]1,517,446[/TD2]
[TD2]2,714,400[/TD2][TD2]2,520,000[/TD2][TD2]983,129[/TD2][TD2]573,951[/TD2]
[TD2]122,445[/TD2][TD2]124,652[/TD2][TD2]136,915[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2]
[TD2]
4,816,517
[/TD2][TD2]
4,573,119
[/TD2][TD2]
2,666,654
[/TD2][TD2]
2,195,893
[/TD2]
[TD2]185,500[/TD2][TD2]147,473[/TD2][TD2]146,343[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2]
[TD2]166,320[/TD2][TD2]161,700[/TD2][TD2]183,930[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2]
[TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2]
[TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]384,000[/TD2][TD2]375,374[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2]
[TD2]
5,554,336
[/TD2][TD2]
5,277,291
[/TD2][TD2]
3,383,301
[/TD2][TD2]
2,952,225
[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,628,376
[/TD2][TD2]
1,306,651
[/TD2][TD2]
618,930
[/TD2][TD2]
456,526
[/TD2]
[TD2]29.4%[/TD2][TD2]29.5%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2]
[TD2]27.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]26.9%[/TD2]
[TD2]22.0%[/TD2][TD2]16.0%[/TD2][TD2]4.5%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2]
[TD2]24.3%[/TD2][TD2]21.3%[/TD2][TD2]20.6%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2]
[TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-31.1%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2]
[TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-28.0%[/TD2][TD2]-39.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2]
[TD2]360,000[/TD2][TD2]350,000[/TD2][TD2]341,129[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2]
[TD2]630,000[/TD2][TD2]620,000[/TD2][TD2]610,759[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]103,434[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2]
[TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,185,000
[/TD2][TD2]
1,155,000
[/TD2][TD2]
1,240,322
[/TD2][TD2]
1,053,500
[/TD2]
[TD2]
443,376
[/TD2][TD2]
151,651
[/TD2][TD2]
-621,392
[/TD2][TD2]
-596,974
[/TD2]
[TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]5,064[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2]
[TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-110,582[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2]
[TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2]
[TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]50,911[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
277,376
[/TD2][TD2]
-14,349
[/TD2][TD2]
-728,999
[/TD2][TD2]
-779,022
[/TD2]
[TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]13,707[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2]
[TD2]
257,377
[/TD2][TD2]
-34,348
[/TD2][TD2]
-742,706
[/TD2][TD2]
-784,627
[/TD2]
[TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-25,167[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2]
[TD2]
307,378
[/TD2][TD2]
15,653
[/TD2][TD2]
-717,539
[/TD2][TD2]
-709,551
[/TD2]
[TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,900[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2]
[TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]181,900[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2]
[TD2]
1.68
[/TD2][TD2]
0.09
[/TD2][TD2]
-4.22
[/TD2][TD2]
-4.19
[/TD2]
[TD2]307,378[/TD2][TD2]15,653[/TD2][TD2]-717,539[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2]
[TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]515,378[/TD2][TD2]215,653[/TD2][TD2]-520,195[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2]
[TD2]
2.82
[/TD2][TD2]
1.19
[/TD2][TD2]
-3.06
[/TD2][TD2]
-3.36
[/TD2]
[TD2]3,476,567[/TD2][TD2]2,933,186[/TD2][TD2]2,236,424[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2]
[TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]146,822[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2]
[TD2]1,180,720[/TD2][TD2]1,082,292[/TD2][TD2]569,874[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2]
[TD2]4,382,600[/TD2][TD2]4,626,666[/TD2][TD2]3,324,643[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2]
[TD2]374,443[/TD2][TD2]364,418[/TD2][TD2]422,034[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2]
[TD2]
9,564,329
[/TD2][TD2]
9,136,562
[/TD2][TD2]
6,699,797
[/TD2][TD2]
6,383,920
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,209,363[/TD2][TD2]2,248,911[/TD2][TD2]2,282,047[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2]
[TD2]6,333,264[/TD2][TD2]6,336,631[/TD2][TD2]6,340,031[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2]
[TD2]11,933,736[/TD2][TD2]11,404,808[/TD2][TD2]10,969,348[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2]
[TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]300,406[/TD2][TD2]346,428[/TD2]
[TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]64,284[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2]
[TD2]420,841[/TD2][TD2]427,841[/TD2][TD2]434,841[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2]
[TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]399,992[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2]
[TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]419,254[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2]
[TD2]
31,596,394
[/TD2][TD2]
30,689,614
[/TD2][TD2]
27,910,000
[/TD2][TD2]
27,271,429
[/TD2]
[TD2]4,686,947[/TD2][TD2]4,684,499[/TD2][TD2]3,030,493[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2]
[TD2]2,370,000[/TD2][TD2]2,252,250[/TD2][TD2]1,814,979[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2]
[TD2]530,247[/TD2][TD2]539,739[/TD2][TD2]576,321[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2]
[TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]674,255[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2]
[TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]942,129[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2]
[TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]2,020,685[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2]
[TD2]
10,752,194
[/TD2][TD2]
10,641,488
[/TD2][TD2]
9,141,362
[/TD2][TD2]
8,650,359
[/TD2]
[TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]9,200,000[/TD2][TD2]9,510,696[/TD2][TD2]8,761,070[/TD2]
[TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2]
[TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,594[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2]
[TD2]773,277[/TD2][TD2]787,119[/TD2][TD2]795,820[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2]
[TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]670,000[/TD2][TD2]584,857[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2]
[TD2]3,258,750[/TD2][TD2]3,118,500[/TD2][TD2]2,607,458[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
24,436,840
[/TD2][TD2]
24,419,725
[/TD2][TD2]
22,642,887
[/TD2][TD2]
21,551,021
[/TD2]
[TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]539,536[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2]
[TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]821,156[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2]
[TD2]
5,856,612
[/TD2][TD2]
4,966,946
[/TD2][TD2]
3,906,421
[/TD2][TD2]
4,450,695
[/TD2]
[TD2]257,377[/TD2][TD2]-34,348[/TD2][TD2]-742,706[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2]
[TD2]465,416[/TD2][TD2]444,788[/TD2][TD2]485,255[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2]
[TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2]
[TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,074[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2]
[TD2]46,267[/TD2][TD2]33,246[/TD2][TD2]27,552[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2]
[TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]66,613[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2]
[TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]-41,476[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]9,669[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2]
[TD2]-98,428[/TD2][TD2]-512,418[/TD2][TD2]70,633[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2]
[TD2]283,614[/TD2][TD2]-1,268,887[/TD2][TD2]-822,487[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-45,193[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2]
[TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-1,863[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2]
[TD2]70,198[/TD2][TD2]2,041,277[/TD2][TD2]591,737[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]61,702[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]22,871[/TD2][TD2]-24,439[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]42,484[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,397,444
[/TD2][TD2]
1,081,530
[/TD2][TD2]
-129,664
[/TD2][TD2]
-398,376
[/TD2]
[TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-600,000[/TD2][TD2]-609,813[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2]
[TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-67,400[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2]
[TD2]
-760,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-660,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-682,817
[/TD2][TD2]
-728,637
[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]1,267,746[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2]
[TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-879,328[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-113,426[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]31,053[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2]
[TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-29,395[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2]
[TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-758[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]179,333[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2]
[TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-56,603[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2]
[TD2]
-142,000
[/TD2][TD2]
258,000
[/TD2][TD2]
398,622
[/TD2][TD2]
371,660
[/TD2]
[TD2]47,937[/TD2][TD2]17,232[/TD2][TD2]-22,611[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2]
[TD2]
543,381
[/TD2][TD2]
696,762
[/TD2][TD2]
-436,470
[/TD2][TD2]
-745,251
[/TD2]
[TD2]
2,933,186
[/TD2][TD2]
2,236,424
[/TD2][TD2]
2,665,673
[/TD2][TD2]
3,367,914
[/TD2]
[TD2]
3,476,567
[/TD2][TD2]
2,933,186
[/TD2][TD2]
2,236,424
[/TD2][TD2]
2,665,673
[/TD2]