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Any thoughts on where the new limit may be? 125,000/yr? 150,000/yr? 420/day?
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
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- elon is an ass
Any thoughts on where the new limit may be? 125,000/yr? 150,000/yr? 420/day?
@neroden
Keep in mind, all suppliers need to provide parts faster for Tesla to increase S/X output. (Interior trim, wheels, modules, glass, etc...)
Tesla can only build at the rate of the slowest link in the chain.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Reciprocity
Active Member
They have had 10 years to prepare for this.. Ok maybe 8 years. Tesla always has a plan for tax phases outs all over the world, why not this one? Why not the biggest one?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
This is a reply to the Q3 numbers posted by @Reciprocity.
Here's the daily production figures from skabooshka, from July 1 to Aug 7:
[TD2]
weekday
[/TD2][TD2]
M3
[/TD2][TD2]
MS
[/TD2][TD2]
MX
[/TD2][TD2]
MSX
[/TD2][TD2]
MS3X
[/TD2]
[TD2]Sun:[/TD2][TD2]370[/TD2][TD2]115[/TD2][TD2]160[/TD2][TD2]275[/TD2][TD2]645[/TD2]
[TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2]
[TD2]Mon:[/TD2][TD2]18[/TD2][TD2]91[/TD2][TD2]102[/TD2][TD2]193[/TD2][TD2]211[/TD2]
[TD2]Tue:[/TD2][TD2]5[/TD2][TD2]140[/TD2][TD2]125[/TD2][TD2]265[/TD2][TD2]270[/TD2]
[TD2]Wed:[/TD2][TD2]5[/TD2][TD2]105[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]205[/TD2][TD2]210[/TD2]
[TD2]Thu:[/TD2][TD2]150[/TD2][TD2]110[/TD2][TD2]95[/TD2][TD2]205[/TD2][TD2]355[/TD2]
[TD2]Fri:[/TD2][TD2]465[/TD2][TD2]160[/TD2][TD2]155[/TD2][TD2]315[/TD2][TD2]780[/TD2]
[TD2]Sat:[/TD2][TD2]380[/TD2][TD2]145[/TD2][TD2]140[/TD2][TD2]285[/TD2][TD2]665[/TD2]
[TD2]Sun:[/TD2][TD2]260[/TD2][TD2]70[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]170[/TD2][TD2]430[/TD2]
[TD2]week:[/TD2][TD2]=1283[/TD2][TD2]=821[/TD2][TD2]=817[/TD2][TD2]=1638[/TD2][TD2]=2921[/TD2]
[TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2]
[TD2]Mon:[/TD2][TD2]550[/TD2][TD2]70[/TD2][TD2]90[/TD2][TD2]160[/TD2][TD2]710[/TD2]
[TD2]Tue:[/TD2][TD2]610[/TD2][TD2]150[/TD2][TD2]130[/TD2][TD2]280[/TD2][TD2]890[/TD2]
[TD2]Wed:[/TD2][TD2]700[/TD2][TD2]180[/TD2][TD2]140[/TD2][TD2]320[/TD2][TD2]1020[/TD2]
[TD2]Thu:[/TD2][TD2]
800
[/TD2][TD2]170[/TD2][TD2]190[/TD2][TD2]360[/TD2][TD2]
1160
[/TD2]
[TD2]Fri:[/TD2][TD2]700[/TD2][TD2]170[/TD2][TD2]180[/TD2][TD2]350[/TD2][TD2]1050[/TD2]
[TD2]Sat:[/TD2][TD2]770[/TD2][TD2]150[/TD2][TD2]190[/TD2][TD2]340[/TD2][TD2]1110[/TD2]
[TD2]Sun:[/TD2][TD2]680[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]170[/TD2][TD2]270[/TD2][TD2]950[/TD2]
[TD2]week:[/TD2][TD2]=4810[/TD2][TD2]=990[/TD2][TD2]=1090[/TD2][TD2]=2080[/TD2][TD2]=
6890
[/TD2]
[TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2]
[TD2]Mon:[/TD2][TD2]530[/TD2][TD2]180[/TD2][TD2]120[/TD2][TD2]300[/TD2][TD2]830[/TD2]
[TD2]Tue:[/TD2][TD2]400[/TD2][TD2]140[/TD2][TD2]160[/TD2][TD2]300[/TD2][TD2]700[/TD2]
[TD2]Wed:[/TD2][TD2]540[/TD2][TD2]
190
[/TD2][TD2]
210
[/TD2][TD2]
400
[/TD2][TD2]940[/TD2]
[TD2]Thu:[/TD2][TD2]570[/TD2][TD2]180[/TD2][TD2]210[/TD2][TD2]390[/TD2][TD2]960[/TD2]
[TD2]Fri:[/TD2][TD2]560[/TD2][TD2]160[/TD2][TD2]180[/TD2][TD2]340[/TD2][TD2]900[/TD2]
[TD2]Sat:[/TD2][TD2]680[/TD2][TD2]110[/TD2][TD2]140[/TD2][TD2]250[/TD2][TD2]930[/TD2]
[TD2]Sun:[/TD2][TD2]340[/TD2][TD2]50[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]150[/TD2][TD2]490[/TD2]
[TD2]week:[/TD2][TD2]=3620[/TD2][TD2]=
1010
[/TD2][TD2]=
1120
[/TD2][TD2]=
2130
[/TD2][TD2]=5750[/TD2]
[TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2]
[TD2]Mon:[/TD2][TD2]480[/TD2][TD2]70[/TD2][TD2]110[/TD2][TD2]180[/TD2][TD2]660[/TD2]
[TD2]Tue:[/TD2][TD2]640[/TD2][TD2]140[/TD2][TD2]150[/TD2][TD2]290[/TD2][TD2]930[/TD2]
[TD2]Wed:[/TD2][TD2]680[/TD2][TD2]150[/TD2][TD2]170[/TD2][TD2]320[/TD2][TD2]1000[/TD2]
[TD2]Thu:[/TD2][TD2]780[/TD2][TD2]170[/TD2][TD2]150[/TD2][TD2]320[/TD2][TD2]1100[/TD2]
[TD2]Fri:[/TD2][TD2]690[/TD2][TD2]150[/TD2][TD2]150[/TD2][TD2]300[/TD2][TD2]990[/TD2]
[TD2]Sat:[/TD2][TD2]540[/TD2][TD2]170[/TD2][TD2]150[/TD2][TD2]320[/TD2][TD2]860[/TD2]
[TD2]Sun:[/TD2][TD2]620[/TD2][TD2]130[/TD2][TD2]140[/TD2][TD2]270[/TD2][TD2]890[/TD2]
[TD2]week:[/TD2][TD2]=4430[/TD2][TD2]=980[/TD2][TD2]=1020[/TD2][TD2]=2000[/TD2][TD2]=6430[/TD2]
[TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2]
[TD2]Mon:[/TD2][TD2]665[/TD2][TD2]125[/TD2][TD2]140[/TD2][TD2]265[/TD2][TD2]930[/TD2]
[TD2]Tue:[/TD2][TD2]760[/TD2][TD2]110[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]210[/TD2][TD2]970[/TD2]
[TD2]Wed:[/TD2][TD2]700[/TD2][TD2]190[/TD2][TD2]165[/TD2][TD2]355[/TD2][TD2]1055[/TD2]
[TD2]Thu:[/TD2][TD2]700[/TD2][TD2]180[/TD2][TD2]200[/TD2][TD2]380[/TD2][TD2]1080[/TD2]
[TD2]Fri:[/TD2][TD2]610[/TD2][TD2]125[/TD2][TD2]130[/TD2][TD2]255[/TD2][TD2]865[/TD2]
[TD2]Sat:[/TD2][TD2]550[/TD2][TD2]120[/TD2][TD2]140[/TD2][TD2]260[/TD2][TD2]810[/TD2]
[TD2]Sun:[/TD2][TD2]575[/TD2][TD2]140[/TD2][TD2]130[/TD2][TD2]270[/TD2][TD2]845[/TD2]
[TD2]week:[/TD2][TD2]=4560[/TD2][TD2]=990[/TD2][TD2]=1005[/TD2][TD2]=1995[/TD2][TD2]=6555[/TD2]
[TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2][TD2]…[/TD2]
[TD2]Mon:[/TD2][TD2]615[/TD2][TD2]155[/TD2][TD2]145[/TD2][TD2]300[/TD2][TD2]915[/TD2]
[TD2]Tue:[/TD2][TD2]650[/TD2][TD2]140[/TD2][TD2]130[/TD2][TD2]270[/TD2][TD2]920[/TD2]
Notes, caveats:
Here's the daily production figures from skabooshka, from July 1 to Aug 7:
| date |
| 07/01: |
| … |
| 07/02: |
| 07/03: |
| 07/04: |
| 07/05: |
| 07/06: |
| 07/07: |
| 07/08: |
| … |
| … |
| 07/09: |
| 07/10: |
| 07/11: |
| 07/12: |
| 07/13: |
| 07/14: |
| 07/15: |
| … |
| … |
| 07/16: |
| 07/17: |
| 07/18: |
| 07/19: |
| 07/20: |
| 07/21: |
| 07/22: |
| … |
| … |
| 07/23: |
| 07/24: |
| 07/25: |
| 07/26: |
| 07/27: |
| 07/28: |
| 07/29: |
| … |
| … |
| 07/30: |
| 07/31: |
| 08/01: |
| 08/02: |
| 08/03: |
| 08/04: |
| 08/05: |
| … |
| … |
| 08/06: |
| 08/07: |
Notes, caveats:
- The source is a known troll hostile to Tesla, which means the data should not be relied on:
- Many of the numbers are rounded down to 10 or to 5, which would sum up to an under-counting of production by several hundred units over the quarter.
- While he's not yet been caught posting a false daily production number, and the numbers are consistent with various other sources, there's no reason to believe that he wouldn't "trim" peaks for example that go against his agenda. I don't think he has done that, but it's a possibility and there's no way we can detect it.
- I think we can be pretty certain that he has no motivation to manipulate numbers up, so we can possibly treat these as a lower ceiling on true production numbers.
- 38 days of data, 5 full weeks, all from Q3.
- Only full weeks are summed up.
- I've included a weekday column, to better see the week-to-week patterns.
- I've highlighted maximum production numbers over this time period for every column, to make it easier to find them.
- Data ends with Aug 7, my guess is that his source went silent.
Last edited:
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Here's the historic data on Model S+X "vehicles in transit" at end of quarter:
| Quarter |
| 2016/Q4 |
| 2017/Q1 |
| 2017/Q2 |
| 2017/Q3 |
| 2017/Q4 |
| 2018/Q1 |
| 2018/Q2 |
In that context the 3,892 S+X in transit from the end of Q2 is not particularly high - it's a bit low in fact.
Furthermore, the maximum quarterly production so far was 25,708:
| Quarter |
| 2016/Q4 |
| 2017/Q1 |
| 2017/Q2 |
| 2017/Q3 |
| 2017/Q4 |
| 2018/Q1 |
| 2018/Q2 |
Here's the MS+X production for the first full 5 weeks of Q3:
| MS |
| 821 |
| 990 |
| 1,010 |
| 980 |
| 990 |
Together with the 275 on July 1 that's 10,118 for the first 38 days. Assuming the maximum rate of 2,130/7 MS+X production for the remaining 54 days we get to 26,650 MS+X production for Q3. Assuming that skabooshka's rounding causes an under-counting of 5 per day on average, we can probably add 92*5 = 460 to this number - which gives a figure of 27,110.
Also note that Tesla guided 'approximately 100,000 Model S/X deliveries' for 2018, and delivered 101,420 in 2017. Their S+X deliveries in 2018 so far was 21,800 and 22,300, which is a shortfall of 5,900 up to end of Q2. If they distributed the remainder between Q3 on a half-half basis, they'd have to make and deliver 27,950 Model S+X in Q3 and Q4 as well.
Based on this data I think the 27k assumed by @luvb2b is a good guess.
So I'd be cautious about assuming too high Model S+X production in Q3 - 30k certainly does not look realistic to me, at this stage.
(Assuming the data I've cited is correct, that is.)
As another point of reference, during his Friday podcast, Fred said that production of the 3 during July4th week was 'under 3500'
Also, lets not forget that skabooshka said there was no S/X production during last week of June.
Also, lets not forget that skabooshka said there was no S/X production during last week of June.
Last edited:
If a supplier needs extra tooling to increase their output, but that only gets production as fast as the next slowest supplier, it's not a good choice financially. For the EV phase out (one year local demand burst), they can shift deliveries to the States instead (or people could have ordered earlier).
Possiblity two is that the refresh includes the bottleneck components and they are using up the old tooling at an accelerated rate (or perhaps using new parts/ suppliers on the line also).
Nintendo didn't increase Wii production even though it wasn't meeting demand for similar (IMO) reasons. After the demand was met, there would be excess capacity cost to pay for.
Edit: typo
Last edited:
Reciprocity
Active Member
First, you lost me at skabooshka. I tuned out right after that.
Second, ignores competely 130k VIN registration Pace and tax credit phase outs. Those two things combined with the fact that maybe you can't trust a lying piece of crap for production numbers leads me to believe maybe something is going on. Tax credit phase out is a once in a forever chance to pull demand forward when Tesla needs profits more then anything else. Expect non-us pent up demand to cover demand until a refresh comes to reignite demand after Q2 next year.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Ok picture it's a year ago today. And Tesla calls up suppliers and says.. we got this tax credit thing coming up in the 12 months. We gonna need you step that action up boss and be ready. You can figure on an extra 20-30% for the second half of next year. This is no surprise to anyone, it didn't sneak up on anyone involved. Or, maybe Tesla is doing nothing in the US after doing something in every other region in the world in a similar situation. Who knows. I only know that they are registering a crap load of VINs for some reason.
Which was a huge lie designed to trick the markets into believing Tesla’s total production of S/3/X was limited to 5K/week, which was immediately proven false when Tesla produced 7K cars in the last week of June.
This lie has been documented on multiple occasions, including here:
Skabooshka's Model 3 Production Numbers (Post 82)
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
- I'm not ignoring VIN registrations, but I don't think they correlate precisely enough for the required ~1k accuracy to be able to make a distinction between a 27k and 29k quarter.
- The quarterly data I posted is from Tesla's quarterly reports.
- The skabooshka data is broadly consistent with the Fred Labert @ Electrek leak. While skabooshka is not trustworthy and has lied about the data at the end of Q2, the data might still be accurate.
- Skabooshka not posting further updates might signal that he wasn't making it up: if he was fabricating data he has little reason to stop.
- Tax credit phaseout is a motivation, but it doesn't in itself guarantee 30k level S+X production.
- Tesla has never made even 26k S+X's, and is particularly strained due to M3 ramp-up.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Yes, shorts ran with the "paint shop is limited to 5k/week" lie, combined with some bizzare conspiracy about Tesla not having permits to paint as much, and were convinced 7k is impossible.
Skabooshka supported that lie by intentionally withholding the numbers and by lying about them.
erthquake
Active Member
I'm concerned there's a risk of some circular reasoning based on FredL's reports. I have some concern that Skabooshka might be Fred's source.
It would be a way for Skabullshite to put out his side of things while flying under the radar, and Fred has been more than happy to slant negative Tesla headlines lately.
No proof. Just gut.
It would be a way for Skabullshite to put out his side of things while flying under the radar, and Fred has been more than happy to slant negative Tesla headlines lately.
No proof. Just gut.
And if the suppliers can add another shift, that is doable. If they are maxed out, then it won't happen. Especially for a known to be short term boost.
If Tesla is production constrained, there is no reason to wait till the phase out to increase parts supply.
If they are on boarding new part sources due to the refresh, and those are usable now, that could boost production. Or current suppliers have another set of tooling brought on line for the next multiple years of production. Or switching to 3 based parts...
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Note that if the 18,300 leak from Fred's second article is accurate, that's an average of 295.1 S+X/day rate for the first 62 days of Q3.
For the full 92 days of Q3 that extrapolates to a S+X production of 27,155 - which is very close to the 27k figure used by @luvb2b.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I don't see Fred characterizing skabooshka as a "very reliable source". Fred's wording suggests to me that his source might be Tesla.
Expectations for Q3 need to be lowered I think, the optimistic projections of 60k+ M3's in Q3 were getting out of hand IMO.
It's far better to be conservative and then be surprised positively than the other way around...
Reciprocity
Active Member
Someone, anyone. What the hell does Tesla need with 30,000 extra VINs. Btw.. 7,000 or so of those where in the last 10 days. Wtf, does tesla need 7000 S/X VINs for... Mind you, they away were up 20% on VINs before adding this hung chunk.
Does no one think they had a plan for the tax phase out? I'm I literally the only human being that thinks Tesla has a plan?
Ok, what if Tesla registered 5000 extra VINs to put on special addition, model S/X P 120Ds. No refresh, just pack and fancy after effects and track mode with new motors and pack. $150k each.
Think people... Why? And why now.
Does no one think they had a plan for the tax phase out? I'm I literally the only human being that thinks Tesla has a plan?
Ok, what if Tesla registered 5000 extra VINs to put on special addition, model S/X P 120Ds. No refresh, just pack and fancy after effects and track mode with new motors and pack. $150k each.
Think people... Why? And why now.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I have no issue with Tesla making more S/X, only that it is unlikely it is being done with the same supplier set up they have been using for years. Maybe the refresh is happening sooner than predicted...
(FWIW, switching motors would require a different VIN code)
@Waiting4M3 Rework would not change the VIN. To do that would require modifying all the VIN locations (dash along with any attached to the structure)
