Skabooshka's Model 3 Production Numbers

[bdy0627]

That's incorrect. The last week of June he claimed that Tesla had stopped production of S and X and that was necessary to get to 5K/week Model 3 production because Tesla was capped at 5K/week total production S/X/3. That statement was totally false and based on his Twitter account it appears he knew it was false.

This has been spelled out multiple times, including

here: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/skabooshkas-model-3-production-numbers.123565/page

and here: TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Relying on someone who blatantly mispresented Tesla's total production in the last week of Q2 is very dangerous IMO. This guy has proven to be totally untrustworthy.

I think we definitely have to be mindful of how he may spin the numbers and speculate on things. That's what he appeared to due regarding model S/X in late June. Best I can tell, he only had (perhaps only provided?) the numbers for S/X on 1 particular day, unless I just missed them. We don't know if that was his omission or the sources. Regardless, the model 3 numbers look pretty accurate in hindsight. I personally would not pay any attention to his musings/speculations about the how and why. However, the numbers appear to be reasonable, but we have no true way of knowing until hindsight. His model 3 numbers for the last week in June totaled 4,970, so within rounding error of the actual production in hindsight. Here are the numbers he provided for late June:

6/24 547
6/25 623
6/26 698
6/27 811
6/28 856 (S = 174, X = 153)
6/29 701
6/30 734

 

[EinSV]

I think we definitely have to be mindful of how he may spin the numbers and speculate on things. That's what he appeared to due regarding model S/X in late June. Best I can tell, he only had (perhaps only provided?) the numbers for S/X on 1 particular day, unless I just missed them. We don't know if that was his omission or the sources. Regardless, the model 3 numbers look pretty accurate in hindsight. I personally would not pay any attention to his musings/speculations about the how and why. However, the numbers appear to be reasonable, but we have no true way of knowing until hindsight. His model 3 numbers for the last week in June totaled 4,970, so within rounding error of the actual production in hindsight. Here are the numbers he provided for late June:

6/24 547
6/25 623
6/26 698
6/27 811
6/28 856 (S = 174, X = 153)
6/29 701
6/30 734

I think sugarcoating this is a mistake.

I encourage you to take another look at the tweets discussed below.

• On June 26, skabooshka stated: "$TSLA is now only producing model 3s - no S/X. This is what it takes to produce model 3s in quantity. And this rate of production cannot be sustained."
  • This was a lie.
• On June 29 he doubled down on this and retweeted a post claiming that Tesla had a max production capacity of 5K/week for S/X and 3.
• He stopped reporting S/X production during the last week of June, reinforcing the appearance that S/X production had stopped that week.
• On July 1, Elon emailed Tesla employees congratulating them on producing 5K Model 3 and 2K S/X in the final week.
• On July 2, skabooshka stated that "My S/X numbers, which I neglected to post, were also accurate."
  • This statement confirms that skabooshka knew that his statements that Tesla stopped producing S/X in the final week was false.
  • He did not correct his false claims until Elon's July 1 email showed that his claims that S/X production had stopped were false.

I don't think there is any reasonable conclusion that can be drawn from this except he lied by claiming:

• that S/X production had stopped in the last week of June;
• maximum production of 3/S/X was 5K per week and,
• by implication, that the maximum sustainable production of Model 3 was 3K per week (5K total - 2K S/X).

I give zero credence to his numbers after this stunt.

Keep in mind that this is the short seller who at the end of Q2 falsely claimed Tesla had stopped producing S and X in order to get to 5K/week Model 3:

skabooshka‏ @skabooshka Jun 26
$TSLA is now only producing model 3s - no S/X. This is what it takes to produce model 3s in quantity. And this rate of production cannot be sustained.

23 replies20 retweets102 likes

Show this thread​

On June 29 he doubled down on this and retweeted a post claiming that Tesla had a max production capacity of 5K/week for S/X and 3, implying no S and X could be produced to get to 5K/week Model 3.

This was contradicted two days later by an internal email from Elon confirming 5K/week Model 3 and 2K/week S/X had been produced in the last week of June. Tesla reaches Model 3 production milestone and record 7,000-car week total production, says Elon Musk

After he was outed as a liar, he didn't contradict Tesla's claims re the S and X, and instead had the nerve to claim that his S/X numbers, "which he had neglected to post" were also accurate,

skabooshka‏ @skabooshka Jul 1
I believe these numbers have been proven to be accurate, corroborated by Reuters reporting that the 5k number was nearly achieved, but only actually achieved about 5 hours after EoQ. My S/X numbers, which I neglected to post, were also accurate.

3 replies1 retweet12 likes​

This guy is totally untrustworthy, a proven liar from his own twitter account.

Even if on some days his estimates are reasonably accurate, they will become inaccurate whenever it is in his interest as a short seller for them to be. This week, for example, would be a great time for him to lie about the numbers going into the Q2 report.

I give zero credence to his numbers.

Edit: I see @TSLA_Hopeful made the same point in the Market Action thread, linked above.

Hopefully useful for people to see it spelled out here as well since some still seem to be giving his numbers credence when he is obviously a liar.

 

[Todd Burch]

One more thing about Skabooshka:

He had stated on Twitter that Tesla should be at steady-state production and wondered why the numbers were dropping below 5k/wk.

I responded, told him I was an engineer who works with robotics/manufacturing, and mentioned that they were ramping up AWD, performance, white interior, etc...all things that could slow production temporarily. He replied that all that stuff was just subassemblies that wouldn’t affect production rate. I responded that production is only as fast as the slowest piece. Anything could be a bottleneck—even a different subassembly.

He responded by saying that he used to run (manage?) an auto plant. Yet anyone who really did manage an auto plant would know what I was telling him. This made me realize:

1. He’s full of it. Any first year engineering student would know that introducing AWD, performance, and a new interior option might result in a temporary slowdown.

2. From some research done by someone on Twitter (since removed from TMC due to doxxing) it seemed pretty clear this guy is a U of Michigan doctoral student whose brother works for VW or Porsche in Germany. Never a plant manager. When I called him out, I was immediately blocked.

3. Anyone whose career was successful enough to allow him to rise to a plant manager wouldn’t be wasting his time with this stuff on Twitter.

Dude’s full of it. I’ve tuned him out (which was easy since he blocked me ).

 

[ZachShahan]

Is he watching bloomberg tracker?

that's something i've wondered if he wasn't just coming up with figures based on the tracker

 

[neroden]

I should say that just because I don't *believe* the numbers from this short-seller doesn't mean it isn't worth *recording* his numbers here for posterity. It could be useful.

 

[jhm]

I should say that just because I don't *believe* the numbers from this short-seller doesn't mean it isn't worth *recording* his numbers here for posterity. It could be useful.

That's right. Recording it here is one way to hold him accountable. If by end of quarter these numbers are substantially off, we can hold that to his discredit. If he tries to claim that his numbers are different that what he had posted, we can catch that too. For that purpose, it may be best to capture a screen shot of the posts.

BTW, if someone is trading on how the daily numbers come out, that is dumb. Those are the folks the will be suckered in by this.

 

[hobbes]

That would be 5320 per week (if number is true and they keep it up for 7 days)

 

[hobbes]

With regard to how much we can trust this source, the following is enlightening:

Tesla just announced that Performance Model 3s will now come with unlimited supercharging if buyers use a referral code. This is after having already slashed price for AWD and disaggregating premium features for Performance versions.

He´s mixing up Model 3 (first sentence) and S/X which he doesn´t clearly state are the subject of the second sentence, making it look like they are pulling multiple demand levers for the 3.

EDIT: Seems like I was wrong here and the unbundeling also happened for the 3, so the quoted post is not misleading after all. My bad.

 

[mongo]

With regard to how much we can trust this source, the following is enlightening:



He´s mixing up Model 3 (first sentence) and S/X which he doesn´t clearly state are the subject of the second sentence, making it look like they are pulling multiple demand levers for the 3.

Or they are referring to the separate Performance Upgrade package that is not bundled with Performance.

 

[hobbes]

Or they are referring to the separate Performance Upgrade package that is not bundled with Performance.

Was this recently unbundled? Or was it always seperate?

 

[mongo]

Was this recently unbundled? Or was it always seperate?

It has been separate since people could order the P, but it was not called out as a separate option before then Tesla unveils faster and more powerful Model 3 dual motor AWD and Performance versions. So, compared to the pre-release 3 or S/X, it is 'disaggregated'....

 

[MP3Mike]

It has been separate since people could order the P, but it was not called out as a separate option before then Tesla unveils faster and more powerful Model 3 dual motor AWD and Performance versions. So, compared to the pre-release 3 or S/X, it is 'disaggregated'....

Nope. Originally EVERYTHING was included. But it seems that too many people didn't want everything so Tesla broke up the options.

 

[hobbes]

Nope. Originally EVERYTHING was included. But it seems that too many people didn't want everything so Tesla broke up the options.

Can you try to find a source? I am getting confused.

 

[MP3Mike]

Can you try to find a source? I am getting confused.

It is all over the forum. The unbundling happens at the same time as the AWD price drop.

 

[mongo]

Nope. Originally EVERYTHING was included. But it seems that too many people didn't want everything so Tesla broke up the options.

You and I seem to be in agreement, but your Nope is confusing me...
Originally, everything was together in the P, but once they started producing them, they unlinked the wheel, brakes, spoiler...

Can you try to find a source? I am getting confused.

The article I linked has the original bundled setup...

 

[MP3Mike]

You and I seem to be in agreement, but your Nope is confusing me...
Originally, everything was together in the P, but once they started producing them, they unlinked the wheel, brakes, spoiler...

Correct. But you said they split it out before it could be ordered, now you are saying before they started producing them. Those are two different things. People were able to order when it was all bundled. (They paid for all the non-software options even if they didn't want them: paint, wheels, white interior...)

 

[mongo]

Correct. But you said they split it out before it could be ordered, now you are saying before they started producing them. Those are two different things. People were able to order when it was all bundled. (They paid for all the non-software options even if they didn't want them: paint, wheels, white interior...)

Ah, yes, I misspoke/ typed, good catch, I meant the option split happened before they were producing/ delivering them (pre-order vs production).

 

[nQva]

"During the month of July, we have repeated weekly production of approximately 5,000 Model 3 cars multiple times while also producing 2,000 Model S and X per week."

As expected, Skabooshka's numbers were fabricated to fit his bear narrative.

 

[jhm]

View attachment 322217

That would be 5320 per week (if number is true and they keep it up for 7 days)

What? Shambooshka is not posting numbers for August? Maybe recording Tesla's progress no longer serves his purpose.

If TSLA was a good short at $300, you're gonna love it at $350.

 

[jhm]

"During the month of July, we have repeated weekly production of approximately 5,000 Model 3 cars multiple times while also producing 2,000 Model S and X per week."

As expected, Skabooshka's numbers were fabricated to fit his bear narrative.

Skabooboo has a monthly averages of

Model 3 3599/wk
Model S 937/wk
Model X 1004/wk
Total 5540/wk

I'm not sure that this is far enough from the Tesla description (which is intentionally vague) to conclude the these numbers are fabrications. There were about 5 rolling 7-day sums that would round up to 5000/wk, if you round to the nearest 1000. So Tesla's language would seem to agree with this.

I'm still skeptical of this persona, but I don't think we have clear evidence of fabricated numbers yet. I think he will just stop reporting numbers soon.