Near-future quarterly financial projections

[generalenthu]

deepak "i said about flat but found a way to spend an extra 150 million" ahuja

That's Elon, not Deepak.

 

[luvb2b]

current wall street estimates stand at -42c non-gaap with 6.1b in revenue.

that's a huge variance from my $1+ non-gaap and 6.58b revenue estimate. people were helpful in pointing out i was likely too optimistic on opex. am i missing something else here? besides the obvious wall st hate of tesla i mean.

yes correct. i've updated my model incorporating the latest sales estimates and adding in some units for canada. it may be a bit surprising that i'm taking down earnings slightly, but it's mostly because i think 27k units of s/x reaches a bit high due to china tariffs impacting demand in china by 20-30%. an extra ~2k units of model 3 at lower prices help offset. lower asp was taken on model 3 as we've now got 32-33k units that are running 56-57k asp (including non-zev credits). accounting for higher asp's on the september deliveries will still make it hard to lift the quarterly asp by more than 2k....

 

[luvb2b]

That's Elon, not Deepak.

elon may do it too but i was definitely referring to deepak, i don't know if i could find the call as transcripts have been locked up in many places.

 

[jpterpsfan]

current wall street estimates stand at -42c non-gaap with 6.1b in revenue.

that's a huge variance from my $1+ non-gaap and 6.58b revenue estimate. people were helpful in pointing out i was likely too optimistic on opex. am i missing something else here? besides the obvious wall st hate of tesla i mean.

Guesses about the street consensus:

• Miss on sales guidance for all vehicles
• Miss on Model 3 gross margin
• Worsening margin on Services
• Higher OpEx growth than you are forecasting

Maybe more analysts are just pessimistic this quarter than last. China tariffs weighing on their sales projections?

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

Has anyone considered that an increase in M3 deliveries may be taking sales from MS (and to a lesser extent MX?) There seems to be a increasing inventory listed, US is now at over 1600 new cars on some sites which represents a sizeable increase. While you'd hope M3 sales were to net new customers, at the price point they're selling, they could well be the same customers who would have been in the market for a 75D (trading bigger car for smaller car and better performance - it's a swap I'd make)

 

[Fact Checking]

Has anyone considered that an increase in M3 deliveries may be taking sales from MS (and to a lesser extent MX?)

I don't think it's happening:

• Tesla reported strong record levels of new MSX orders in their Q2 report,
• Yesterday InsideEV reported record MSX sales in August in the U.S., with good Model S sales - the only market where the 3 is available,
• 75% of the market cannot buy the 3 yet, only the MSX.

In fact the 3P taking away some of the low end MSX sales at this stage is probably a plus: high margins and more software options purchased on the 3P, 18650 cells freed up to sell a higher trim MSX - improving overall margins.

 

[sunhelm]

Has anyone considered that an increase in M3 deliveries may be taking sales from MS (and to a lesser extent MX?) There seems to be a increasing inventory listed, US is now at over 1600 new cars on some sites which represents a sizeable increase. While you'd hope M3 sales were to net new customers, at the price point they're selling, they could well be the same customers who would have been in the market for a 75D (trading bigger car for smaller car and better performance - it's a swap I'd make)

I just checked EV-CPO and new inventory for S/X is just 348 (new + used is 527) in the US. I think the cannibalization worry is a nothing burger. In Q2, Tesla maintained their S/X 100k guidance this year. They also said the top trade in vehicle for Model 3 sales was the Prius.

Compare S/X sales in 2017 vs 2018, it has not changed significantly. Now compare Bolt and Leaf sales with Model 3, that, is the true picture of what cannibalization of EV sales looks like.

 

[Fact Checking]

current wall street estimates stand at -42c non-gaap with 6.1b in revenue.

that's a huge variance from my $1+ non-gaap and 6.58b revenue estimate. people were helpful in pointing out i was likely too optimistic on opex. am i missing something else here? besides the obvious wall st hate of tesla i mean.

There are two firms rating TSLA AFAICS:

• OPPENHEIMER HLD, Colin Rusch
• https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/colin-rusch
  
• 
  
• PIPER JAFFRAY, Alexander Potter
• https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/alexander-potter

Both analysts are bullish, but both got burned by last year's Model 3 debacle, so I think they are understandably cautious. They can still upgrade their Q3 estimates after the delivery report, right? Tesla has a track record to over-promise and under-perform.

Does anyone have access to their reports perhaps? Maybe storage will see further contraction, due to the Model 3 interactions?

 

[Heimdallr]

I just checked EV-CPO and new inventory for S/X is just 348 (new + used is 527) in the US. I think the cannibalization worry is a nothing burger. In Q2, Tesla maintained their S/X 100k guidance this year. They also said the top trade in vehicle for Model 3 sales was the Prius.

Compare S/X sales in 2017 vs 2018, it has not changed significantly. Now compare Bolt and Leaf sales with Model 3, that, is the true picture of what cannibalization of EV sales looks like.

Not exactly true, they were specifically calling it the top five non-Tesla trade-in vehicles. But yes, they actually guided flat S/X sales from 2017 to 2018 with higher margins due to being supply (18650 battery cells) constrained.

 

[Fact Checking]

But yes, they actually guided flat S/X sales from 2017 to 2018 with higher margins due to being supply (18650 battery cells) constrained.

Yeah, and in fact it's even better than that. In their Q2 report they described it the following way:

"We continue to expect Model S and Model X deliveries to be approximately 100,000 in total in 2018, constrained by the total available supply of cells with the 18650 form factor used in those vehicles."​

Note the 'approximately' qualifier, which many believe includes the possibility of 'a bit more than', because it's in the best interest of Panasonic as well to make as many 18650 cells as possible.

In the early august Q2 update letter they also noted the following:

"Demand for Model S and Model X vehicles remains high, with Q2 2018 being our highest ever Q2 for Model S and Model X orders."​

For Model S/X Q2 new orders are typically delivered in Q3.

Plus yesterday's InsideEV U.S. sales report reported 2,625 Model S and 2,750 Model X sales, which is a record for the second month of any previous quarter. Elon re-tweeted those numbers, which I assume means that they are probably pretty accurate.

I.e. several independently sourced data points that Model S/X demand in Q3 is not only strong, but record strong.

 

[bdohmeyer]

current wall street estimates stand at -42c non-gaap with 6.1b in revenue.

that's a huge variance from my $1+ non-gaap and 6.58b revenue estimate. people were helpful in pointing out i was likely too optimistic on opex. am i missing something else here? besides the obvious wall st hate of tesla i mean.

Out of 20 analysts the *high* non-GAAP eps estimate is only 55 cents (about negative 50 cents GAPP) and the low is -$2.18 (over $3.00 GAAP loss). Given what we know, the 55 cents seems reasonable and the -$2.18 seems unreasonable.

If you're negative on Tesla you're "so wise" and if you believe Musk's guidance you're a "fool". Seems to me like huge bias based on asymmetric risk of be ridiculed.

 

[adiggs]

I.e. several independently sourced data points that Model S/X demand in Q3 is not only strong, but record strong.

To build on this, my understanding is that the worldwide market segment that Model X is in is bigger than the worldwide market segment that Model S is in. I wish I had numbers at hand to qualify and size that.

The point is that Model X is just now reaching volume parity with Model S. I'm sure that is partly a function of how much focus Tesla is putting on X vs S. But it's also a suggestion that Model X has a much bigger market to grow into.


Model X also "benefits" by not having a down market competitive (as S has with 3). Arguably, Model 3 is helping rather than hurting S, and either way it's independent of my point. To the degree that purchasers need a station wagon / UV style of vehicle, Model X is your choice, and thus SOME of the otherwise down market people that would rather not spend so much for a car, go ahead and buy a Model X anyway. (I hear there are Tesla killers coming, and it seems like many/most of them are most directly Model X competitors, so maybe that is a drag on theoretical Model X demand).


I also see upside in the S+X numbers available, should the suppliers be able to deliver, and should Tesla decide to expand the production capacity (another tent!?!).

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

I just checked EV-CPO and new inventory for S/X is just 348 (new + used is 527) in the US. I think the cannibalization worry is a nothing burger. In Q2, Tesla maintained their S/X 100k guidance this year. They also said the top trade in vehicle for Model 3 sales was the Prius.

Compare S/X sales in 2017 vs 2018, it has not changed significantly. Now compare Bolt and Leaf sales with Model 3, that, is the true picture of what cannibalization of EV sales looks like.

EV-cpo only list inventory advertised by Tesla. It’s not in their (tesla) interest to list duplicated spec inventory and doing so would worry potential buyers of surplus stock.

Tesla-info lists others and has 1600 us cars, 1300 Dutch, 500 Norway etc, that’s up noticeably from previous quarters,

I may be wrong, but I was within a few hundred on my q2 preduction much to the annoyance of value anaktst.

 

[sunhelm]

EV-cpo only list inventory advertised by Tesla. It’s not in their (tesla) interest to list duplicated spec inventory and doing so would worry potential buyers of surplus stock.

Tesla-info lists others and has 1600 us cars, 1300 Dutch, 500 Norway etc, that’s up noticeably from previous quarters,

I may be wrong, but I was within a few hundred on my q2 preduction much to the annoyance of value anaktst.

Let me see if I got this right - you consider a possible reduction of inventory sales, inventory not owned by Tesla but other car dealers because they would rather buy a Model 3? By god! Yes, we want that! Why would you worry about other businesses' sales?

I don't really care about your prediction track record for Q2. Not sure why you bring it up. Past performance not guarantee of future results and all that.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

As a further indicator of falling MS demand

Tesla lifts restriction on ending Model S/X leases early if you get a new car by the end of the quarter

The relaxing of trading up restrictions would suggest the need to push quarter end shipments whereas in previous quarters the numbers have been largely constrained by manufacturing volume.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

Let me see if I got this right - you consider a possible reduction of inventory sales, inventory not owned by Tesla but other car dealers because they would rather buy a Model 3? By god! Yes, we want that! Why would you worry about other businesses' sales?

I don't really care about your prediction track record for Q2. Not sure why you bring it up. Past performance not guarantee of future results and all that.

No you dont have it right, Tesla inventory is at those volumes, new unregistered stock on Teslas books running to roughly a months production.

I bring up past accuracy as the mechanism I use to work out vol has has been accurate in the past.

 

[sunhelm]

As a further indicator of falling MS demand

Tesla lifts restriction on ending Model S/X leases early if you get a new car by the end of the quarter

The relaxing of trading up restrictions would suggest the need to push quarter end shipments whereas in previous quarters the numbers have been largely constrained by manufacturing volume.

This really is not the purpose of this thread. If you want to sling FUD, do it elsewhere. If you have a model for Q3 sales, do share it here.

 

[elasalle]

As a further indicator of falling MS demand

Tesla lifts restriction on ending Model S/X leases early if you get a new car by the end of the quarter

The relaxing of trading up restrictions would suggest the need to push quarter end shipments whereas in previous quarters the numbers have been largely constrained by manufacturing volume.

Creating demand (short term) is not the same as falling demand.
Agreed that it is a lever, but basically it is just something to reduce the inventory/units in transit at end of quarter

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

This really is not the purpose of this thread. If you want to sling FUD, do it elsewhere. If you have a model for Q3 sales, do share it here.

The model is relatively simple and predates the M3 tracker based in vins, it’s a MS and MX tracker based on their highest seen VIN on quarter ends on a variety of inventory trackers, taking the highest. The difference gives a rough span over a quarter as an indicator of production. To convert to sales you need to look at imperial indicators of sales tactics and unsold stock. This is roughly the same model being used for M3, except the assumption is all M3 is custom order. It’s been clear for a while Ms and MX are being ordered and sold off the lot,

The indicators show that even relatively high vin numbers (so newish built cars) are being discounted, 20k off P100D as an example, the rising inventory on the tracker sites, the increase in incentives and releasing from lease agreements, all indicate pressure to sell. Sales could be strong, but that might be at a cost to make the transaction, or worst case sales are just down requiring aggressive promotion.

It’s a discussion forum, I’m sharing my perspective. You might not like it but I don’t see why pointing to a variety of alternative data points is wrong.

 

[Unpilot]

The model is relatively simple and predates the M3 tracker based in vins, it’s a MS and MX tracker based on their highest seen VIN on quarter ends on a variety of inventory trackers, taking the highest. The difference gives a rough span over a quarter as an indicator of production. To convert to sales you need to look at imperial indicators of sales tactics and unsold stock. This is roughly the same model being used for M3, except the assumption is all M3 is custom order. It’s been clear for a while Ms and MX are being ordered and sold off the lot,

The indicators show that even relatively high vin numbers (so newish built cars) are being discounted, 20k off P100D as an example, the rising inventory on the tracker sites, the increase in incentives and releasing from lease agreements, all indicate pressure to sell. Sales could be strong, but that might be at a cost to make the transaction, or worst case sales are just down requiring aggressive promotion.

It’s a discussion forum, I’m sharing my perspective. You might not like it but I don’t see why pointing to a variety of alternative data points is wrong.

Sigh....another well written and yet completely wrong post about the supposed "falling demand" for Tesla's.
At least the troll's have moved on past Tesla can't make enough...or Tesla's are falling apart.