i made a few adjustments and corrections based on comments received. one meaningful correction is i had leased s/x vehicles too low at 7% - this causes revenue to skew higher. another correction was i had depreciation too low in the cash flow statement. adjusted balance sheet for comments about common equity varying too much vs. net income. moved the sec settlement into q4 per brian.
thanks for all your comments.
i also want to kick myself for thinking analysts would adjust their estimates higher. most analysts are out with notes today and they all seem to have the same negative ratings as usual. i feel dumb for thinking they would get to the same page as me.
sorry have no idea how to eliminate whitespace below.
… |
s deliveries |
x deliveries |
s+x deliveries |
3 deliveries |
3 production |
lease s/x % veh |
avg price s+x |
avg price model 3 |
|
revenue |
auto sales ex 3 |
auto sales mod 3 |
auto leasing |
1 time autopilot |
zev credits |
total auto |
|
energy storage |
solarcity |
grohmann |
services/other |
total revenue |
|
cost of revenue |
auto sales ex 3 |
auto sales mod 3 |
auto leasing |
total auto |
energy storage |
solarcity |
grohmann |
services & other |
total cost of rev |
|
gross profit |
|
auto gaap ex 3 gm |
auto-zev ex 3 gm |
model 3 gm |
auto-zev incl 3 gm |
storage gm |
scty gm |
grohmann gm |
services gm |
|
opex |
tesla r&d |
tesla sg&a |
1 time costs |
solarcity r&d |
solarcity sg&a |
total opex |
|
op income |
|
interest inc |
interest exp |
scty interest |
other income exp |
1time scty gain |
pretax income |
income tax |
net income |
non-cont int. |
net inc to common |
|
basic shares |
diluted shares |
|
diluted gaap eps |
gaap net income |
+ stock based comp |
+ one time scty |
non-gaap net income |
non-gaap diluted eps |
dio |
dpo |
|
|
balance sheet |
current assets |
cash & eq. |
restricted cash |
accts rcvbl |
inventory |
prepaids+other |
total current assets |
|
op lease vehicles |
solar energy sys |
pp&e |
intangible assets |
goodwill |
mypower rcvbls |
restricted cash |
other assets |
total assets |
|
current liabiliites |
accts payable |
accrued liabs+other |
deferred revenue |
resale value guar |
cust deposits |
curr debt+leases |
curr solar bonds |
total current liabs |
|
lt debt+leases |
solar bonds |
rel party conv debt |
deferred revenue |
resale value guar |
other lt liabilities |
comm stk warrants |
capital lease oblg |
total liabilities |
|
commits/contings |
rdmbl ncis in subs |
conv senior notes |
nci in subsidiaries |
|
common equity |
|
|
cash flow statement |
cash flows from ops |
net loss |
dep/amortization |
stock-based comp |
am of debt discount |
inv write-down |
loss on disposals |
forex loss (gain) |
loss on acq scty |
non-cash int/other |
|
chgs in op as/lb |
accts rcbl |
inv / op leases |
prepaids/other ca |
mypower rcvbls + other |
accts pybl/accr liabs |
deferred revenue |
customer deposits |
other lt liabs |
net cash from ops |
|
cash flows from inv |
pp&e purchases |
purchase solar sys |
net cash from inv |
|
cash flows from fin |
stock issued |
debt issued |
debt repayments |
rel pty solar repaids |
coll lease borrowing |
stock option excrs |
capital lease paids |
stock+debt issue cost |
investment by nci in subs |
dist to nci in subs |
buyouts of nci in subs |
net cash from fin |
forex effect |
net change in cash |
cash & eq start |
cash & eq end |
[TD2]
luv q4-18e
[/TD2][TD2]
luv q3-18e
[/TD2][TD2]
Jun-18
[/TD2][TD2]
Mar-18
[/TD2]
[TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]14,470[/TD2][TD2]10,939[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2]
[TD2]13,000[/TD2][TD2]13,190[/TD2][TD2]11,380[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2]
[TD2]
28,000
[/TD2][TD2]
27,660
[/TD2][TD2]
22,319
[/TD2][TD2]
21,815
[/TD2]
[TD2]
60,000
[/TD2][TD2]
55,840
[/TD2][TD2]
18,449
[/TD2][TD2]
8,182
[/TD2]
[TD2]
60,000
[/TD2][TD2]
53,239
[/TD2][TD2]
28,578
[/TD2][TD2]
9,766
[/TD2]
[TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2]
[TD2]
103.00
[/TD2][TD2]
104.00
[/TD2][TD2]
105.14
[/TD2][TD2]
105.42
[/TD2]
[TD2]
58.00
[/TD2][TD2]
59.00
[/TD2][TD2]
55.80
[/TD2][TD2]
56.80
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,566,760[/TD2][TD2]2,560,210[/TD2][TD2]2,088,411[/TD2][TD2]2,046,829[/TD2]
[TD2]3,480,000[/TD2][TD2]3,294,560[/TD2][TD2]1,029,454[/TD2][TD2]464,738[/TD2]
[TD2]213,652[/TD2][TD2]209,683[/TD2][TD2]239,816[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2]
[TD2]
6,360,412
[/TD2][TD2]
6,164,452
[/TD2][TD2]
3,357,681
[/TD2][TD2]
2,735,317
[/TD2]
[TD2]185,500[/TD2][TD2]140,450[/TD2][TD2]111,651[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2]
[TD2]237,600[/TD2][TD2]231,000[/TD2][TD2]262,757[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]270,142[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2]
[TD2]
7,083,512
[/TD2][TD2]
6,835,902
[/TD2][TD2]
4,002,231
[/TD2][TD2]
3,408,751
[/TD2]
[TD2]1,897,237[/TD2][TD2]1,892,018[/TD2][TD2]1,546,610[/TD2][TD2]1,517,446[/TD2]
[TD2]2,714,400[/TD2][TD2]2,767,430[/TD2][TD2]983,129[/TD2][TD2]573,951[/TD2]
[TD2]132,465[/TD2][TD2]130,003[/TD2][TD2]136,915[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2]
[TD2]
4,744,101
[/TD2][TD2]
4,789,452
[/TD2][TD2]
2,666,654
[/TD2][TD2]
2,195,893
[/TD2]
[TD2]185,500[/TD2][TD2]147,473[/TD2][TD2]146,343[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2]
[TD2]166,320[/TD2][TD2]161,700[/TD2][TD2]183,930[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2]
[TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2]
[TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]384,000[/TD2][TD2]375,374[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2]
[TD2]
5,481,920
[/TD2][TD2]
5,493,623
[/TD2][TD2]
3,383,301
[/TD2][TD2]
2,952,225
[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,601,592
[/TD2][TD2]
1,342,279
[/TD2][TD2]
618,930
[/TD2][TD2]
456,526
[/TD2]
[TD2]29.5%[/TD2][TD2]29.5%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2]
[TD2]27.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]26.9%[/TD2]
[TD2]22.0%[/TD2][TD2]16.0%[/TD2][TD2]4.5%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2]
[TD2]24.2%[/TD2][TD2]21.0%[/TD2][TD2]20.6%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2]
[TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-31.1%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2]
[TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-28.0%[/TD2][TD2]-39.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2]
[TD2]360,000[/TD2][TD2]350,000[/TD2][TD2]341,129[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2]
[TD2]630,000[/TD2][TD2]620,000[/TD2][TD2]610,759[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2]
[TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]103,434[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2]
[TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,205,000
[/TD2][TD2]
1,155,000
[/TD2][TD2]
1,240,322
[/TD2][TD2]
1,053,500
[/TD2]
[TD2]
396,592
[/TD2][TD2]
187,279
[/TD2][TD2]
-621,392
[/TD2][TD2]
-596,974
[/TD2]
[TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]5,064[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2]
[TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-110,582[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2]
[TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2]
[TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]50,911[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
230,592
[/TD2][TD2]
21,279
[/TD2][TD2]
-728,999
[/TD2][TD2]
-779,022
[/TD2]
[TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]13,707[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2]
[TD2]
210,593
[/TD2][TD2]
1,280
[/TD2][TD2]
-742,706
[/TD2][TD2]
-784,627
[/TD2]
[TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-25,167[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2]
[TD2]
260,594
[/TD2][TD2]
51,281
[/TD2][TD2]
-717,539
[/TD2][TD2]
-709,551
[/TD2]
[TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,900[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2]
[TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]181,900[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2]
[TD2]
1.42
[/TD2][TD2]
0.28
[/TD2][TD2]
-4.22
[/TD2][TD2]
-4.19
[/TD2]
[TD2]260,594[/TD2][TD2]51,281[/TD2][TD2]-717,539[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2]
[TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]468,594[/TD2][TD2]251,281[/TD2][TD2]-520,195[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2]
[TD2]
2.56
[/TD2][TD2]
1.38
[/TD2][TD2]
-3.06
[/TD2][TD2]
-3.36
[/TD2]
[TD2]
72.00
[/TD2][TD2]
80.00
[/TD2][TD2]
89.67
[/TD2][TD2]
79.31
[/TD2]
[TD2]
77.00
[/TD2][TD2]
81.00
[/TD2][TD2]
81.73
[/TD2][TD2]
80.47
[/TD2]
[TD2]3,410,108[/TD2][TD2]2,868,614[/TD2][TD2]2,236,424[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2]
[TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]146,822[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2]
[TD2]1,164,413[/TD2][TD2]1,123,710[/TD2][TD2]569,874[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2]
[TD2]4,325,460[/TD2][TD2]4,816,327[/TD2][TD2]3,324,643[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2]
[TD2]381,125[/TD2][TD2]364,418[/TD2][TD2]422,034[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2]
[TD2]
9,431,106
[/TD2][TD2]
9,303,070
[/TD2][TD2]
6,699,797
[/TD2][TD2]
6,383,920
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,388,916[/TD2][TD2]2,344,277[/TD2][TD2]2,282,047[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2]
[TD2]6,333,264[/TD2][TD2]6,336,631[/TD2][TD2]6,340,031[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2]
[TD2]11,933,736[/TD2][TD2]11,404,808[/TD2][TD2]10,969,348[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2]
[TD2]320,000[/TD2][TD2]320,000[/TD2][TD2]300,406[/TD2][TD2]346,428[/TD2]
[TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]64,284[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2]
[TD2]420,841[/TD2][TD2]427,841[/TD2][TD2]434,841[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2]
[TD2]400,000[/TD2][TD2]400,000[/TD2][TD2]399,992[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2]
[TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]419,254[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2]
[TD2]
31,561,224
[/TD2][TD2]
30,869,987
[/TD2][TD2]
27,910,000
[/TD2][TD2]
27,271,429
[/TD2]
[TD2]4,625,839[/TD2][TD2]4,876,531[/TD2][TD2]3,030,493[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2]
[TD2]2,410,000[/TD2][TD2]2,252,250[/TD2][TD2]1,814,979[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2]
[TD2]573,340[/TD2][TD2]562,627[/TD2][TD2]576,321[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2]
[TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]674,255[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2]
[TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]942,129[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2]
[TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]2,020,685[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2]
[TD2]
10,774,179
[/TD2][TD2]
10,856,408
[/TD2][TD2]
9,141,362
[/TD2][TD2]
8,650,359
[/TD2]
[TD2]9,600,000[/TD2][TD2]9,600,000[/TD2][TD2]9,510,696[/TD2][TD2]8,761,070[/TD2]
[TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2]
[TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,594[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2]
[TD2]836,121[/TD2][TD2]820,497[/TD2][TD2]795,820[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2]
[TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]670,000[/TD2][TD2]584,857[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2]
[TD2]3,313,750[/TD2][TD2]3,118,500[/TD2][TD2]2,607,458[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
25,176,669
[/TD2][TD2]
25,068,024
[/TD2][TD2]
22,642,887
[/TD2][TD2]
21,551,021
[/TD2]
[TD2]540,000[/TD2][TD2]540,000[/TD2][TD2]539,536[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2]
[TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]821,156[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2]
[TD2]
4,944,555
[/TD2][TD2]
4,361,963
[/TD2][TD2]
3,906,421
[/TD2][TD2]
4,450,695
[/TD2]
[TD2]210,593[/TD2][TD2]1,280[/TD2][TD2]-742,706[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2]
[TD2]501,217[/TD2][TD2]479,002[/TD2][TD2]485,255[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2]
[TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2]
[TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,074[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2]
[TD2]48,163[/TD2][TD2]33,246[/TD2][TD2]27,552[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2]
[TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]66,613[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2]
[TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]-41,476[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]9,669[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2]
[TD2]-40,703[/TD2][TD2]-553,836[/TD2][TD2]70,633[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2]
[TD2]446,228[/TD2][TD2]-1,553,914[/TD2][TD2]-822,487[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-45,193[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2]
[TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-1,863[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2]
[TD2]-142,942[/TD2][TD2]2,233,309[/TD2][TD2]591,737[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]61,702[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]22,871[/TD2][TD2]-24,439[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]42,484[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,395,556
[/TD2][TD2]
1,016,958
[/TD2][TD2]
-129,664
[/TD2][TD2]
-398,376
[/TD2]
[TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-600,000[/TD2][TD2]-609,813[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2]
[TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-67,400[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2]
[TD2]
-760,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-660,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-682,817
[/TD2][TD2]
-728,637
[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]1,267,746[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2]
[TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-879,328[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-113,426[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]31,053[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2]
[TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-29,395[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2]
[TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-758[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]179,333[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2]
[TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-56,603[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2]
[TD2]
-142,000
[/TD2][TD2]
258,000
[/TD2][TD2]
398,622
[/TD2][TD2]
371,660
[/TD2]
[TD2]47,937[/TD2][TD2]17,232[/TD2][TD2]-22,611[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2]
[TD2]
541,493
[/TD2][TD2]
632,190
[/TD2][TD2]
-436,470
[/TD2][TD2]
-745,251
[/TD2]
[TD2]
2,868,614
[/TD2][TD2]
2,236,424
[/TD2][TD2]
2,665,673
[/TD2][TD2]
3,367,914
[/TD2]
[TD2]
3,410,108
[/TD2][TD2]
2,868,614
[/TD2][TD2]
2,236,424
[/TD2][TD2]
2,665,673
[/TD2]