Near-future quarterly financial projections

[Thekiwi]

Sure, that would be <30%YoY, but what is the significance of that number? At some point, Shanghai production will max out at the top of the S curve.

Tesla officially lists Shanghai annual capacity at >750,000 as of last earnings, but with allowance for lower annual output to account for downtime, upgrades, parts shortages etc.

But that should equate to at least 150k+ quarterly output in q2 if there is no extended downtime.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Sure, that would be <30%YoY, but what is the significance of that number? At some point, Shanghai production will max out at the top of the S curve.

Nothing wrong with <30% growth, unless the stock is priced for company guidance of 50%.

Shanghai factory isn't the issue. It produced 87k+ in both October and November, and would have again in December had there been demand. That's 260k/quarter. And if Shanghai was really maxed out they'd have proceeded with the planned expansion next door.

But as I said, the price cuts worked and Tesla China is setting a new record in Q1 despite subsidy cuts and seasonal weakness. They may even bump up against that 260k/quarter limit before long.

 

[mongo]

Nothing wrong with <30% growth, unless the stock is priced for company guidance of 50%.

Shanghai factory isn't the issue. It produced 87k+ in both October and November, and would have again in December had there been demand. That's 260k/quarter. And if Shanghai was really maxed out they'd have proceeded with the planned expansion next door.

But as I said, the price cuts worked and Tesla China is setting a new record in Q1 despite subsidy cuts and seasonal weakness. They may even bump up against that 260k/quarter limit before long.

Agreed, 50% for company as a whole which is the combination of mild growth in old plants (Fremont), medium growth in establishes plants (Shanghai), and high growth in new plants (Berlin, Austin, China expansion). With the additional factor that Shanghai production is split at a nonconstant ratio between local and export.
So China local YoY != Shanghai YoY != Tesla YoY, which raised my question regarding 30%.

 

[petit_bateau]

I drove the Munich to Salzburg Road today just as in the last q1 weeks last year. About the same number of car carriers of 3 and Y coming up from Slovenia as last year. About 50 50 mix. Just one observation.

 

[EVNow]

With the additional factor that Shanghai production is split at a nonconstant ratio between local and export.
So China local YoY != Shanghai YoY != Tesla YoY, which raised my question regarding 30%.

Right - but on the whole Tesla needs to find additional buyers for Berlin production. Since that will be sold in EU, Shanghai production needs to go somewhere. That's why China local sales are important. While they can export to other places - usually those are small change.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

Right - but on the whole Tesla needs to find additional buyers for Berlin production. Since that will be sold in EU, Shanghai production needs to go somewhere. That's why China local sales are important. While they can export to other places - usually those are small change.

Tesla needs to find buyers for the additional Berlin and Texas production - why the worry about the additional Berlin production and not the additional Texas production?

If we assume that when fully ramped both Berlin Y and Texas Y production will be the same as Shanghai Y (13k/week) then the required increase in NA sales for 3/Y is 71% whereas the required increase in ROW sales for 3/Y is 38%.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla needs to find buyers for the additional Berlin and Texas production - why the worry about the additional Berlin production and not the additional Texas production?

If we assume that when fully ramped both Berlin Y and Texas Y production will be the same as Shanghai Y (13k/week) then the required increase in NA sales for 3/Y is 71% whereas the required increase in ROW sales for 3/Y is 38%.

True - esp. if the tax credits go down after this month, it won't be easy ramping up demand in US as well.

One thing though is - Austin may not completely ramp up on Y - they might want to start ramping up CT instead. They can produce Y & CT according to demand and battery supply.

All this shows Tesla needs the cheaper cars to go beyond 4 factories.

 

[willow_hiller]

True - esp. if the tax credits go down after this month, it won't be easy ramping up demand in US as well.

Do we have any good estimates of what percentage of Tesla's 3/Y production are LFP? Because it's my understanding only the LFP Model 3 is losing the full credit. All other models and configurations that currently have the credit are expected to keep it. Electrek had an article on it this morning, citing internal communications:

Tesla expects to lose full $7,500 tax credit on its cheapest electric car

Tesla told employees that it expects to lose the full $7,500 federal tax credit on its cheapest electric car because...

electrek.co

The Model 3 Standard Range is built in Fremont, California, in the US, but its battery pack is using LFP battery cells built in China.

...

As for Tesla’s other Model Y and Model 3 vehicles in the US, they are expected to retain access to the full tax credit as they are using battery cells built by Tesla or Panasonic in Nevada, California, or Texas.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

<...>
All this shows Tesla needs the cheaper cars to go beyond 4 factories.

Yes. A little surprised that Mexico is being touted as the location that will be first to build the next gen car. Shanghai and/or Berlin would have seemed more sensible as the supply and distribution channels are already in place but permitting issues may have influenced the order.

 

[EVNow]

Do we have any good estimates of what percentage of Tesla's 3/Y production are LFP? Because it's my understanding only the LFP Model 3 is losing the full credit. All other models and configurations that currently have the credit are expected to keep it. Electrek had an article on it this morning, citing internal communications:

Tesla expects to lose full $7,500 tax credit on its cheapest electric car

Tesla told employees that it expects to lose the full $7,500 federal tax credit on its cheapest electric car because...

electrek.co

The problem is not just battery production - but raw materials as well. SO, not sure how it plays out. We'll have to wait for Treasury directions.

Either way, in this tight credit, high inflation / interest rate regime - it won't be easy to grow 50% year after year. Tesla definitely needs to expand to lower priced segments. I hope Elon's plan is not "robotaxi" ... because that isn't coming anytime soon.

It is also much easier to grow 50% when you are making 100k or even 500k cars ... rather than 2M. At some point Tesla has top slowly adjust the market expectations.

 

[EVNow]

Yes. A little surprised that Mexico is being touted as the location that will be first to build the next gen car. Shanghai and/or Berlin would have seemed more sensible as the supply and distribution channels are already in place but permitting issues may have influenced the order.

Seems to me Tesla wants to sell the cheaper cars in Latin America. Mexico will probably produce the cars for NA as well. Tesla may open a factory in Poland for European distribution. Indonesian plant for Asia ?

 

[Doggydogworld]

Do we have any good estimates of what percentage of Tesla's 3/Y production are LFP? Because it's my understanding only the LFP Model 3 is losing the full credit. All other models and configurations that currently have the credit are expected to keep it. Electrek had an article on it this morning, citing internal communications:

Tesla expects to lose full $7,500 tax credit on its cheapest electric car

Tesla told employees that it expects to lose the full $7,500 federal tax credit on its cheapest electric car because...

electrek.co

No US Model Ys use LFP. The only Model 3s advertised in the US are RWD (f/k/a SR+) with LFP and Performance with NCA. So probably ~90% of US Model 3s have LFP. The order page has shown Model 3 Long Range as "Available in 2023" for a long time, there's no way to know if they'll actually bring it back or not.

 

[Yuha]

Yes. A little surprised that Mexico is being touted as the location that will be first to build the next gen car. Shanghai and/or Berlin would have seemed more sensible as the supply and distribution channels are already in place but permitting issues may have influenced the order.

Mexico is a more convenient location for Tesla's engineering force. Gen 3 has a lot of new technology and there will likely be some degree of production hell. Tesla will need their top engineers to be there frequently.

 

[Olle]

Do we have any good estimates of what percentage of Tesla's 3/Y production are LFP? Because it's my understanding only the LFP Model 3 is losing the full credit. All other models and configurations that currently have the credit are expected to keep it. Electrek had an article on it this morning, citing internal communications:

Tesla expects to lose full $7,500 tax credit on its cheapest electric car

Tesla told employees that it expects to lose the full $7,500 federal tax credit on its cheapest electric car because...

electrek.co

It is probably a relatively safe bet that Model 3 rear wheel drive and some energy products for the US will go back to the American made NMC cells to keep the IRA and IIJA tax credits.

As a consequence, some NMC production planned for export would stay in the US while more LFP packs are sold overseas. Would expect price rearrangements overseas to increase proportion of LFP short range sales for a while.

 

[petit_bateau]

credit @JusRelax

 

[EVNow]

credit @JusRelax

View attachment 921207

I wonder whether they will do a last minute delivery push from Berlin like they used to do with Fremont.

 

[petit_bateau]

credit @JusRelax

View attachment 921207

I believe this was achieved by Berlin ahead of the same target being met by Austin, continuing the trend of Berlin being a month or two ahead in ramp terms.

This tweet was issued on today (Sat) and so that tends to fit @Troy 's hypothesis that the records are being broken whenever a Saturday half-shift is on. (see his post #5373 in this thread).

But however they are doing it the numbers are rising from 2k/wk (1-Oct-2022) to 3k/wk (19-Dec-2022) to 4k/wk (28-Feb-2023) and now 5k/wk (25-Mar-2023).

If we allow for the sustained rate to be 10% lower than the peak rate and use 4-week months that means
- Jan @ 2,700/wk = 10,800
- Feb @ 3,600/wk = 14,400
- Mar @ 4,500/wk = 18,000
- TOT = 43,200 (vs my old estimate, now very dated of 48,000 for Q1 2023)

This is overoptimistic as it assumes the rate achieved at end month sets the 90% figure for the entire month. Also it ignores any shutdown in Jan/Feb for holiday and line changes.

So, progress.

I bet they are aiming for an internal target of 250k out of Berlin in 2023.

 

[heltok]

Even with a few bursts and some slow weeks(at only 5/7=70% capacity, let's say 3500*3+5000*1=16500), that should be pretty decent numbers from Berlin in addition to all those imports from China. So let's see, either Europe will also have amazing numbers or if Troy is right inventory is about to explode.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

credit @JusRelax

View attachment 921207

5k/week now confirmed by Tesla on twitter

 

[jeewee3000]

I bet they are aiming for an internal target of 250k out of Berlin in 2023.

Wouldn't that be strangely low? The current run rate is ~250k with the goal of ramping to 10k/week or ~500k/year. So I'm guessing 300k-350k is more likely the internal target for Berlin.