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New invites

dano9258

Member
Jan 28, 2018
361
155
Las Vegas, NV
I saw somewhere this past week that a new batch of invites would be sent out this week....has that occurred? I haven't seen anyone posting anything about it. How far into reservations are they? Is it still day of announcement?
 

McRat

Well-Known Member
Jan 20, 2016
5,771
5,414
LA
AFAIK, not all Day One people have been invited yet, and only a few April 1, almost all east coasters.

If you are May June July, who was originally Nov Dec Jan, I would not hold your breath. Somebody posted that even if you get an invite it's a 3-4 month estimated delivery.

This information is exactly as accurate as internet postings are. That's what I've been reading. A lot of folk dropped off the radar in May. Actively posting about wanting a Model 3 now gone. A couple posted they bought other cars, but mostly just vanished.
 
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dano9258

Member
Jan 28, 2018
361
155
Las Vegas, NV
AFAIK, not all Day One people have been invited yet, and only a few April 1, almost all east coasters.

If you are May June July, who was originally Nov Dec Jan, I would not hold your breath. Somebody posted that even if you get an invite it's a 3-4 month estimated delivery.

This information is exactly as accurate as internet postings are. That's what I've been reading. A lot of folk dropped off the radar in May. Actively posting about wanting a Model 3 now gone. A couple posted they bought other cars, but mostly just vanished.
I just don't understand how they can advertise 4-6 months for new reservations today if they aren't even past day 1 reservations
 

McRat

Well-Known Member
Jan 20, 2016
5,771
5,414
LA
I just don't understand how they can advertise 4-6 months for new reservations today if they aren't even past day 1 reservations

You and me both.

Best guess? They are collecting deposits ASAP so they make their balance sheet look sexy. It's the only hot rod shop I've seen run by bankers.
 

Daniel in SD

Well-Known Member
Jan 25, 2018
6,888
9,767
San Diego
I just don't understand how they can advertise 4-6 months for new reservations today if they aren't even past day 1 reservations
I think it's 4-6 months if you want the current $50k configuration (LR+PUP). If you want a cheaper model it's going to be much longer. They still have to sell the expensive configuration overseas too before they start selling cheaper ones.
 

robertdesarbo

Member
May 18, 2018
67
24
New York
Back when they sent out invites in April they were barely hitting 2000 a week. They are now hitting 3,500 and expecting to hit 5-6 by end of the month. Granted I am 4/18 who hasn't even been assigned a VIN yet. 7 weeks :(
 

dano9258

Member
Jan 28, 2018
361
155
Las Vegas, NV
So you're saying that of the 300,000+ people still sitting ahead of me, they all are waiting for the 35,000 model? Because to get it in 4-6 months, that would mean my invitation should be coming within the next 3-4 months for my 2nd reservation and I should be getting my first within a month..... I have one reservation I made in Jan 18 and then another in May of 2018. The first that comes up will be LR and the 2nd SR.
 

Moderatefan

Member
Dec 20, 2017
902
841
Denver, CO
Somebody posted that even if you get an invite it's a 3-4 month estimated delivery.
3-4 months is for P/AWD. FP should be quicker, since in the shareholder mtg Elon said that NEW orders will have 3-4 months wait, not even 4-6.
I am thinking 2/3 of capacity will go towards FP for the next 3-4 months, which will fill all the demand in U.S. I'm also thinking they might get to 6-7k/week instead of 5k.
The reasons for my suspicion:
1. GF is said to be able to reach 5k/week with existing lines after April shutdown/improvements, yet they rushed in the new line from Germany by air. He previously said that line is as good as all existing combined.
2. Fremont is at 3.5K/week and new 3rd line was just added(few cars made, but not contributed to 3.5K). It is better than ##1,2. This should bring them instantly to 5K. Were there any other improvements to line 1&2 during May shutdown? Unknown. They were close to 3.5K even before the shutdown per his internal letter. In Q1 call he said they'll be adding 3rd shift and hiring people in May/June for that. I did not hear any news that 3rd shift is in place. If not, that can add 50% to 5K.
Meanwhile, they will be slowly ramping up P/AWD with 1/3 of capacity. Once FPs are done, capacity will switch to AWD and the U.S. AWD line will be close to gone by EOY. Then SRs remain for 2019 and overseas reservations.

See here @41:12
 
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dano9258

Member
Jan 28, 2018
361
155
Las Vegas, NV
3-4 months is for P/AWD. FP should be quicker, since in the shareholder mtg Elon said that NEW orders will have 3-4 months wait, not even 4-6.
I am thinking 2/3 of capacity will go towards FP for the next 3-4 months, which will fill all the demand in U.S. I'm also thinking they might get to 6-7k/week instead of 5k.
Meanwhile, they will be slowly ramping up P/AWD with 1/3 of capacity. Once FPs are done, capacity will switch to AWD and the U.S. line will be close to gone by EOY. Then SRs remain for 2019 and overseas reservations.

So with your belief, I should have my first LR within 3 months? And then the SR mid to late next year?
 

Moderatefan

Member
Dec 20, 2017
902
841
Denver, CO
So with your belief, I should have my first LR within 3 months? And then the SR mid to late next year?
I don't know your reservation date. Based on what Elon said, all current U.S. FP reservations will be gone in 3-4 months.
SRs will start @ end of 2018, but likely only few lucky day 1 reservations will get it and the majority are looking into 2019 to get it. I seriously hope it will not take them more than 6mo in 2019 to fill all the U.S. backlog, likely less. Considering that 1/2 or 2/3 of production will be going overseas at that point.
 
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Duckiesauce

Member
Jun 6, 2018
40
11
Somewhere in MoCo, MD
So bottom line is no one with 4/1/16 reservation has gotten their invite to configure yet like me? :mad::(

They really need to update their "estimated delivery" in our accounts! There's noway at this point I'd get mine by the end of July as indicated.
 
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McRat

Well-Known Member
Jan 20, 2016
5,771
5,414
LA
So bottom line is no one with 4/1/16 reservation has gotten their invite to configure yet like me? :mad::(

They really need to update their "estimated delivery" in our accounts! There's noway at this point I'd get mine by the end of July as indicated.

The ones that were issued seem to be located in the East, probably to ship with the Canadian cars.
 

paulkar

Member
Apr 19, 2018
5
1
Carrollton, TX
The following link has recent VIN assignments ...
Tesla Model 3 Invites - Latest VIN

Mine is first day reservation online, not previous owner, in Texas, estimated delivery Jun-July
Got VIN assigned 6/4, was asked to make sure info is right on 6/4, said if payment made by 6/6 can deliver by 6/21 (takes 2 weeks to ship to TX). Looks like my car was pretty much built when they assigned the VIN.
Delivery should be even faster if in CA or west coast.

So presuming things are looking up for early reservation holders. Good luck!
 

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