By myself I meant three phase AC. Here in Europe is very common to have 32A three phase which is 22kW. I do no think that the thermal cooling capacity of the battery can not cope with the extra power from HPC70A to 22kW (charger from Brusa)
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New Roadster Goodies for 2014
- Thread starter hjr
- Start date
By myself I meant three phase AC. Here in Europe is very common to have 32A three phase which is 22kW. I do no think that the thermal cooling capacity of the battery can not cope with the extra power from HPC70A to 22kW (charger from Brusa)
spaceballs
Member
Assuming Tesla releases a new pack with only the latest gen cells as the change, then engineering, development and testing have been already written off when the roadster was stopped being produced. My tinkering with the roadster BMB/BMS shows it's flexible to changes in Ah in ESS bricks, and should adjust appropriately with upgraded cells. I feel like it's low hanging fruit for Tesla to do with not requiring much effort on their part to manufacture.
400 Mile Pack (Was New Roadster Goodies for 2014)
I'm pretty sure Nissan is selling those at a loss, but thank you for bringing that up, I recall being amazed when that mess came out. Remember also though that Nissan is larger, is selling those packs to more than a couple hundred people, and did have a big or problem on their hands with the loss of range in early leaf packs. Tesla treatment of roadster owners constitutes a much smaller or problem considering most people, and probably most tesla owners, don't even know the car exists.
If there were an 11k option to buy a pack at current sizes but lower weight I would buy it immediately. I doubt this will happen though. And I'd love to see a trade in credit but note that the Nissan trade in credit is only 1k, rather small compared to the 6500 for the new battery.
I'm pretty sure Nissan is selling those at a loss, but thank you for bringing that up, I recall being amazed when that mess came out. Remember also though that Nissan is larger, is selling those packs to more than a couple hundred people, and did have a big or problem on their hands with the loss of range in early leaf packs. Tesla treatment of roadster owners constitutes a much smaller or problem considering most people, and probably most tesla owners, don't even know the car exists.
If there were an 11k option to buy a pack at current sizes but lower weight I would buy it immediately. I doubt this will happen though. And I'd love to see a trade in credit but note that the Nissan trade in credit is only 1k, rather small compared to the 6500 for the new battery.
My feelings exactly. Maybe a minor software update. But I don't see any reason to offer a 400 mile pack until the Gigafactory is up and running. I can just imagine what people would be saying if they spent $40K for a 400 mile pack and then Tesla offers a 450+ mile pack for $30K after the Gigafactory opens.
tonybelding
Active Member
OK, I'm coming in late to this conversation, and I'm not going back and re-reading all 88 pages of it, so please forgive me if I'm repeating something that's already been covered, but...
Tesla have to continue producing Roadster battery packs now, and for many years to come. They have to keep replacement packs on hand, and there's a limit to how many they can stockpile, because the cells are always aging to some extent even when they are sitting idle. Eventually they are either sourcing outdated cells specifically for the Roadster, or they switch to the cells that they are already sourcing in large quantities for the Model S. In other words... At some point it actually gets cheaper for Tesla to make Roadster batteries with the newer cells. (That's assuming the newer cells are the same physical form factor. They are, right?)
Tesla have to continue producing Roadster battery packs now, and for many years to come. They have to keep replacement packs on hand, and there's a limit to how many they can stockpile, because the cells are always aging to some extent even when they are sitting idle. Eventually they are either sourcing outdated cells specifically for the Roadster, or they switch to the cells that they are already sourcing in large quantities for the Model S. In other words... At some point it actually gets cheaper for Tesla to make Roadster batteries with the newer cells. (That's assuming the newer cells are the same physical form factor. They are, right?)
Canuck
Well-Known Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Whoa, a rare Tony Belding post, last I knew you went MIA a few years ago.
Yes they are. Which is why the person claiming Tesla may wait until the GF to produce Roadster packs is unlikely, since the GF will be setup for slightly longer and wider cells, which probably would not work in a Roadster pack. Though I do think the production machines will be adjustable to some degree, so that may not be an issue. I think the big problem is existing pack assembly machinery is setup for the S so Roadster packs would need to be largely hand assembled, which is time consuming.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Given the low volumes, it's pretty apparent Tesla might be doing this program at a loss unless they charge a decent amount of money (AKA more than people expect). Luckily they still have that development division doing packs for the B-Class, so I guess they still have some small volume manufacturing capability right now.
I hope Tesla is not planning on making a profit on the much anticipated new Roadster battery. The numbers will be so low that a profitable price will be crazy high. My money is on Elon deciding to sell the new battery at cost or even well below. It would be the right thing to do in this case.
Numbers we know (or have a good guess at):
* Recently, replacement roadster whole packs, using current technology, were offered at US$40k (friends-and-family price) to those with bricks.
* Model S 60kWh -> 85kWh is US$10k at purchase (but includes supercharging, which is a US$2k option for 60kWh). Call it US$8k for +25kWh in the same casing, just more modules.
* Back in 2009, a replacement pack was quoted at US$30k (Tesla offers laundry list of new options, $12k prepaid battery replacement) or US$36k (Tesla Roadster - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia).
* Pre-paid 7 year battery replacement plan was US$12k. Using 5%, that would be US$16,885 after 7 years. Using 10%, that would be US$23,384 after 7 years. Costs of cells is estimated to be falling at 8% a year. Given that Tesla gets a double-gain on this US$12k pre-paid battery (1 - the money upfront to solve cash crunch in 2009 and gain interest, and 2 the cost of the cells falling at 8% a year). After 7 years, the cost of the cells in that US$30k battery are almost half - but cell cost is only one part of the total battery cost. Figures I've seen put the battery cost as 10% - 20% above cell cost, but Tesla Roadster batteries are presumably largely hand made.
Conclusions? I have none. Other than a certainty that a 400 mile battery replacement for a roadster is not going to cost anywhere near Nissan's US$5.5k. My best guess is that a friends-and-family refurbishment to 400 mile would be around US$30k, and a replacement with approximately the same range would be US$20k using 2015 technology, at cost. If Tesla wants to make this a profit centre, then worse.
* Recently, replacement roadster whole packs, using current technology, were offered at US$40k (friends-and-family price) to those with bricks.
* Model S 60kWh -> 85kWh is US$10k at purchase (but includes supercharging, which is a US$2k option for 60kWh). Call it US$8k for +25kWh in the same casing, just more modules.
* Back in 2009, a replacement pack was quoted at US$30k (Tesla offers laundry list of new options, $12k prepaid battery replacement) or US$36k (Tesla Roadster - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia).
* Pre-paid 7 year battery replacement plan was US$12k. Using 5%, that would be US$16,885 after 7 years. Using 10%, that would be US$23,384 after 7 years. Costs of cells is estimated to be falling at 8% a year. Given that Tesla gets a double-gain on this US$12k pre-paid battery (1 - the money upfront to solve cash crunch in 2009 and gain interest, and 2 the cost of the cells falling at 8% a year). After 7 years, the cost of the cells in that US$30k battery are almost half - but cell cost is only one part of the total battery cost. Figures I've seen put the battery cost as 10% - 20% above cell cost, but Tesla Roadster batteries are presumably largely hand made.
Conclusions? I have none. Other than a certainty that a 400 mile battery replacement for a roadster is not going to cost anywhere near Nissan's US$5.5k. My best guess is that a friends-and-family refurbishment to 400 mile would be around US$30k, and a replacement with approximately the same range would be US$20k using 2015 technology, at cost. If Tesla wants to make this a profit centre, then worse.
ChadS
Last tank of gas: March 2009
I also spent some time trying to analyze where the Roadster replacement pack price was going, and I too decided there are just too many variables.
But it does seem to me that if Tesla really sees a case to subsidize the price and offer cheaper packs, they could have already done that with their existing refurb packs, rather than wait for a bigger more expensive pack to lower the price. As much as I'd love a cheap replacement pack, it just doesn't seem like the Tesla way. I suspect the "something special" that Tesla does for us is offer a bigger pack at the same price they are currently charging (which I think is about $33k plus $3k for labor; that includes trading in the old pack). Thank goodness my pack has tons of life left!
But it does seem to me that if Tesla really sees a case to subsidize the price and offer cheaper packs, they could have already done that with their existing refurb packs, rather than wait for a bigger more expensive pack to lower the price. As much as I'd love a cheap replacement pack, it just doesn't seem like the Tesla way. I suspect the "something special" that Tesla does for us is offer a bigger pack at the same price they are currently charging (which I think is about $33k plus $3k for labor; that includes trading in the old pack). Thank goodness my pack has tons of life left!
Do we know this? I know they told us that the most optimal cell format would be what you describe, but they never - as far as I know - said that they will use this format. Yes, we all expect them to produce the the most optimal cells they can, and I too guesses on that this will be the format, but I think it still TBD. And, as you said, they may be able to easy adjust between the two formats. Remember that it is said that Model S/X will also get their cells from the GF.
... but anyway, when the GF is up and running, they will still source cells from Panasonic/Asia, and that will probably still be the 18650 cells. They may then get the Roadster cells from this source if they need to stay at 18650.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Also includes the upgraded $1K tire and wheel package, so the 25kWh increase is priced at $7K, and also assumes no price premium for the greater performance and longer usable pack life of the 85. It works out to $280/kWh, retail. Using 220 Wh/mi that means a 400 mile pack would be an 88kWh pack, $24,640. I'm expecting the pack to be less than a 400 mile pack since Elon said "probably around" 400 miles, or something like that. Tesla's cell level cost is supposed to be around $180/kWh. 6,831 cells x 3.2ah x 3.7V = 81kWh pack = $14,580 cell cost. I would think Tesla should be able to offer the completed pack for under $20K and still make a small profit. I'm assuming they use existing Roadster enclosures. Obviously all numbers are best guesses.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Personal opinion: I think the speculation about the cost of a 400 mile battery pack is a waste of time. I don't think we've never seen anything from Tesla that I'd consider a "bargain" or even a "great price"; I bought my cars for reasons other than price and I'm happy with that but I'm not going to get optimistic about falling battery costs.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Have to disagree. Service on my model s very cheap. Tires at prices I have not seen before
Since the pack design is very different, I would not be at all surprised to discover that they simply use newer commodity cells. After all, that's what the Roadster pack was designed for. If so I doubt these cells would be produced in the Gigafactory.
Roadrunner13
Member
The only 'right thing' Tesla HAS to do, is provide alternate pack for people with battery replacement option or battery failures while under warranty.
Beyond that, if our battery dies outside warranty... I would expect the price to be quite hefty and would not expect discounts from any company...
especially considering most of this will be assembled by hand!
My bet is on 30 to 40K$ range...unless Elon really, really wants to throw roadster's owner a flower!
Maybe a survey on new battery pack price would be in order here...
pharma5
Roadster F#25, Model 3 #36xx
Although the old battery packs as a group have held up better than expected, the bodies will outlast the packs, and every 7 years or so Tesla will need to put another bunch of packs into "circulation" if they want to keep the Roadster fleet on the road. Plus a few extra packs for service and warranty situations.
If and when a ~400 mile pack upgrade is ready, I would guess they'll make a batch of them and price them well enough to get them out there and get some old packs in good condition back in custody. Those old packs would become "low-cost" repair parts (for cars off the road or with low-performing sheets).
I continue to expect(?) 2015 for availability, purely my speculation, balancing delays versus the prepaid battery swap commitments. If they announce on December 31st that you can order one we should all give a toast to them at midnight.:biggrin:
I plan to keep my Roadster on the road as long as possible, and hope Tesla continues to be the one to support it, and even nudge it forward occasionally, with things like longer-range battery packs.
- - - Updated - - -
We did have one of those out there a couple of months ago. I'll bump it up for anyone interested in adding to it or picking up the pricing topic.
If and when a ~400 mile pack upgrade is ready, I would guess they'll make a batch of them and price them well enough to get them out there and get some old packs in good condition back in custody. Those old packs would become "low-cost" repair parts (for cars off the road or with low-performing sheets).
I continue to expect(?) 2015 for availability, purely my speculation, balancing delays versus the prepaid battery swap commitments. If they announce on December 31st that you can order one we should all give a toast to them at midnight.:biggrin:
I plan to keep my Roadster on the road as long as possible, and hope Tesla continues to be the one to support it, and even nudge it forward occasionally, with things like longer-range battery packs.
- - - Updated - - -
Maybe a survey on new battery pack price would be in order here...
We did have one of those out there a couple of months ago. I'll bump it up for anyone interested in adding to it or picking up the pricing topic.
When I bought my C.P.O., I wanted to buy the battery replacement option. I was told only original owners could get it, it was not available to me. That was a bit disappointing. I do not know if the 400 mile pack will be available to all current owners or just those who bought the option, but if it isn't available to all Roadster owners it will be way more than disappointing. My C.A.C. is actually great, at 154.97, but I think all owners should have the ability to purchase it, even if there are different price levels for those who have the replacement option and those who don't (I expect that; seems fair to me, since those with the option already paid good money towards it). But we are all just in the dark, waiting to hear, I really wish Mr. Musk would give us some concrete information before this year ends.
400 Mile Pack (Was New Roadster Goodies for 2014)
Tesla as a brand is here to stay, and it will grow to the size of big OEMs. The Roadster is already an icon and it will be even more important in the future. It is the first electric car that opened the eyes to many people. IMHO is in Tesla interest to keep this cars moving. Both the cars and their drivers are excellent marketing machines in motion.
I hope Tesla sell then at cost.
Tesla as a brand is here to stay, and it will grow to the size of big OEMs. The Roadster is already an icon and it will be even more important in the future. It is the first electric car that opened the eyes to many people. IMHO is in Tesla interest to keep this cars moving. Both the cars and their drivers are excellent marketing machines in motion.
I hope Tesla sell then at cost.
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