Non-owner First Production window just got pushed back

[omgwtfbyobbq]

To expand on what I'm saying about car assembly being solved, take a look at the Bolt rollout plan: Chevrolet Bolt State-By-State Rollout Schedule Straight From General Motors

They expected CA to have Bolts by December, and the dealers did. First customer deliveries by Christmas.

I don't think anyone would disagree about the Bolt being on time. At the same time, comparing the Bolt to the 3 is apples and oranges in terms of the production. Tesla's trying to increase their production by about 400% with the 3. GM increased their production by roughly 1% with the Bolt. My guess is Tesla could also hit all their estimates if they released a new model line that was 1% of their current capacity.

 

[Moderatefan]

Just to let you know. Reserved 31.3. Online before presentation started. EU - Czech republic - Non-Owner. Pushed from “late 2018” to “early 2019”. Well that start to be a problem for me. I need the car in Jan-Fab 2019. Never expected to get so close to this window after the production started in 2017, but here we are

We always think of you guys as the "extra patient ones". Please don't disappoint us. It's really upsetting to see you complaining.

 

[N5329K]

April 1 7AM online reservation, California non-owner. Pushed back from Mid 2018 to Early 2019.
Good thing I don't need a car.
Robin

 

[lupend88]

Question for everyone- out of curiosity, do you think this is the last major timeline shift we will see for delivery estimations?

 

[Moderatefan]

I can still order the RWD Long Range immediately

Didn't your delivery estimate change from 4 weeks to 6 weeks?

 

[smak]

My coworkers always snicker and jokingly ask when my car is going to arrive.

This is a phenomena a lot of people have had.

 

[jsrawa]

This is a phenomena a lot of people have had.

Yeah, and this isn’t going to help....

 

[smak]

Question for everyone- out of curiosity, do you think this is the last major timeline shift we will see for delivery estimations?

This shift at least seems to correspond to how many cars they seem to be making, and are saying they will be making in the next few months.

The last one was ridiculous, everybody knew it wasn't a one month delay.

 

[ℬête Noire]

What is in Tesla's past behavior that makes you believe any non-owner will take delivery by September 30th?

1) We are already deep into the owner backlog, a few weeks away from non-owners starting to get invites.
2) They've geometric ramped past products (although X was damn fugly)
3) The geometric "ramp" is happening. Data coming out on deliveries and invites extrapolates to bthienthai's first production (if they wanted it) near the end of the 3 month window Tesla is quoting.

 

[sreams]

This shift at least seems to correspond to how many cars they seem to be making, and are saying they will be making in the next few months.

The last one was ridiculous, everybody knew it wasn't a one month delay.

True... but to give them credit, it does appear that they fulfilled almost every invite for people with Nov-Jan windows within their windows.

 

[jasonb]

To Give you guys a little hope: I'm an S owner that reserved maybe a year ago. I'm confident I was quite late in the owner queue. I got my invitation to configure today. On the downside, I live in the bay area in case that's still a factor.

i reserved oct 24 2017 and havent gotten invite yet. also bay area. lets see how many days after you until i receive. i'll guess about a month

 

[Moderatefan]

1) We are already deep into the owner backlog, a few weeks away from non-owners starting to get invites.
2) They've geometric ramped past products (although X was damn fugly)
3) The geometric "ramp" is happening. Data coming out on deliveries and invites extrapolates to bthienthai's first production (if they wanted it) near the end of the 3 month window Tesla is quoting.

1) few weeks --> 1mo+ possibly(we got owners bumped to March today)
2) exponential?
3) based on the call today, I think nothing exponential will happen until end of March. The March 2.5k/week estimate implies that after they disassemle/ship from Germany/assemble in U.S. their new automated line, they will encounter 0 issues. A bit optimistic approach.
Just FYI.

 

[ℬête Noire]

1) few weeks --> 1mo+ possibly(we got owners bumped to March today)

Early 2017 owner with an invite already. Feb has less than 3 weeks left.

2) exponential?

It ain't linear.

3) based on the call today, I think nothing exponential will happen until end of March. The March 2.5k/week estimate implies that after they disassemle/ship from Germany/assemble in U.S. their new automated line, they will encounter 0 issues. A bit optimistic approach.
Just FYI.

Based on your comments I don't think you understand what exponential is, as it's already clearly been happening. Also, not Telsa's estimates but estimates based on 3rd party data of deliveries and invites.

 

[bnsfengineer]

to Feb - April. It had been Nov '17 - Jan '18. Line-waiter that reserved in SoCal at 9:10am. Standard battery remains at "Early 2018" and AWD remains at Aug - Oct 2018.

Anyone else get their delivery estimates moved back?

Signed on this evening and have been able to configure for a couple of weeks and now the SR battery is "Early 2019" WTH!! Was showing early spring, probably trying to get us off the fence and order LR which I just did...

 

[Moderatefan]

Based on your comments I don't think you understand what exponential is

Geometrical is definitely more suitable, since you can pick any shape whether a line or a circle. Anything that fits. I definitely see more sense in this.

 

[ℬête Noire]

...probably trying to get us off the fence and order LR which I just did...

"With demand outpacing production, we plan to optimize the options mix in order to maximize gross margin. "

Ayup.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Geometrical is definitely more suitable, since you can pick any shape whether a line or a circle. Anything that fits. I definitely see more sense in this.

It ain't linear. Technically it's all fit-curve but exponential is a good approximation.

 

[Garlan Garner]

This is my second shift.

original dates were: Oct 17 to Dec 17
second dates were Dec17 to Feb 17
new dates as of yesterday are Mar 18 to May 18

SR and LR dates just say.....Late 18.


All of those who are touting a wonderful ramp curve.....please respond to those who aren't Tesla family or current well-to-do owners.

5k per week on July 1'st means that Tesla is only going to make 130k in the last half of the year with over 400K reservations to go.



Lets look at Tesla's statement yesterday.

We’ve made significant progress in Model 3 production, having delivered Model 3 to customers in more than 20 states, and we continue to target weekly production rates of 2,500 by the end of Q1 and 5,000 by the end of Q2. We have been inspired by the response to the car and appreciate the continued support of our reservation holders. We are working hard to deliver more cars soon.”


Significant progress which results in Tesla pushing estimates back........that doesn't make sense.....that means they were really really behind.
I just wonder how difficult it would be to open another production line.

 

[timk225]

This latest delay in getting my 3 (non owner first day in line to reserve) has me once again considering getting rid of my reservation and getting a used S. But only certain colors, definitely not black, and under $50K. I never did like the single screen in the 3 anyhow.

 

[nvx1977]

Didn't your delivery estimate change from 4 weeks to 6 weeks?

For people who already have their invites, the old estimate was 4 weeks to delivery. Now, for me at least, it says 3 - 6 weeks, which probably means 6 weeks.