We can actually estimate Model Y production (very roughly) using the Teslike spreadsheet. While it doesn't have a lot of data points, it can give us a sense of how many VINs they run through per month by looking at the "VIN range by VIN month" tab. Presuming, of course, that they assign VINs sequentially, then if we exclude outliers and focus on the clusters on the spreadsheet, here's what we get:
Month | Lowest VIN range | Highest VIN range |
Jan 2022 | 352,000 | 372,000 |
Feb 2022 | 372,000 | 393,000 |
Mar 2022 | 391,000 | 412,000 |
Apr 2022 | 413,000 | 433,000 |
May 2022 | 432,000 | 455,000 |
So it kinda looks like they're producing ~20K/month in Fremont, which is remarkably close to
@bluewhite79's estimate of 700/day.
That same tab also corroborates my earlier speculation that the spreadsheet is tracking only a very small percentage of deliveries -- on the right side there's a count by VIN range, which (so far) doesn't show any range of 1,000 having more than 9 data points (0.9%). Many are fewer than 5/1000 (0.5%), and some ranges don't even appear (e.g. 441,000 and 443,000).
OK, I think I'm done being a math/stats nerd for the moment.