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OT My personal experience might be amusing to some of you hard core investors.

lafrisbee

Active Member
Dec 13, 2019
1,765
5,767
Indialantic FL
TSLA was my first ever purchase of a real stock. And I only dropped "all" of my ROTH 401k into it, which by the numbers I see some of you guys hinting at having in TSLA is pretty low. I think i got my $70k in on January 29th or so for $645/share or so it got me right around 110 shares.
For weeks I had been reading in the Cybertruck Owner's Forum where people posted of how they bought TSLA just to pay for their Cyber vehicle. So I looked at the stock, And I asked the only 2 people I believe are good in the stock market about TSLA. My Dad, and My Chinese Buddy Ivan. (I had to mention he was Chinese because "Ivan" sounds so far off from Chinese that I felt the name was misleading. And I had asked his advice when I was tired of mutual funds. I told him to get me into something with risk and potential high profit. So of course, his choice was Chinese stocks. And then Trump, my guy btw, did the whole tariff crap.)
Well my Dad is old and he has had the mind set since '08 to make solid low-risk investments. And when i went to Ivan in early January he told me that TSLA had already shot up, and I would not capture any of the rise by getting in then ($480/share). So I didn't buy it.
Those damn guys on Cybertruck owners were so boastful....Well I figured a plan. If Tesla and Musk were as good as I was reading about then if I put my Roth into TSLA I could buy the land and a new Cybertruck with all the bells and whistles by the time my number (440,000) was called. And if the stock lagged it would have been because the Cybertuck and Tesla were not performing well so I'd just take what was in my ROTH and just go buy a little land on the creek and fix up my old pick-up.So at the end of January I had seen enough, the stock just kept rising. Ivan was wrong. And I jumped in with both feet.
And in one damn week I had about a 40% gain. ONE WEEK. And then later that day I didn't. Remember this is my first real stock. The first one I decided to buy. You guys were probably a little shook up on that day. But imagine all your ROTH in it and it was the first "play" you ever did in the market. One moment I could almost buy the cheaper Cyber truck and a small bit of land...and the next I could buy a fancy cybertruck and no land. And the market closed for the day.
And I stayed content and hopeful. It climbed real well to over $900 in the middle of February. That "slow" climb would have been exciting if the stock hadn't had done that in one day the month before... my perspective will always be screwed up because of that day it went from 600 to 900...
And then corona hit. I had learned here to buy on the way down. So as my first stock started going down and down and down, I bought a few shares with all the money I had left in the Roth. But my mistake was that I thought the bottom was $830. I did listen to you guys. I did buy on the drop. I just had no idea how over-reactive the government would become. And it went down and down and down and down and down and down.....
I've watched it climb outta the hole back to a Grand.
And the biggest thing I have seen, the thing I never knew before, was how big financial institutions can dick with a stock. I still can't accept it as a legal thing to do. All it is is a way to cheat people. They might as well work as Carneys at the fair.
But hey, I've learned they can't stop the real actions, not completely. And so I sit here, up about 40-50% just wondering about you millionaires that bought the same dollar amount as me in March 2013.
ya know....actually I am might be doing better than almost everyone when it comes to daily % gain? in less than 6 months I've got 50% growth, so yearly doubling? Ok? I bet I beat 99.99% of the people in the market over the last 6 months? right?
Imagine, me wet behind the ears, first time actually picking a stock to invest in , and throwing my entire ROTH 401k on it...
LOL Do I need to put the disclaimer that this is not stock advice and you should all make your own decisions after careful research?
 
Last edited:

adiggs

Active Member
Sep 25, 2012
4,373
12,088
Portland, OR
...
And then corona hit. I had learned here to buy on the way down. So as my first stock started going down and down and down, I bought a few shares with all the money I had left in the Roth. But my mistake was that I thought the bottom was $830. I did listen to you guys. I did buy on the drop. I just had no idea how over-reactive the government would become. And it went down and down and down and down and down and down.....
...

If it helps, I once caught a falling knife when I bought shares at ~160 when it was in the middle of falling from 180 to 130. I still have those shares :). With the investment horizon, and belief in the product, strategy, and execution, I had no trouble holding through that 20% 'loss'.

Which is one example of a larger point - if you understand the strategy and you believe in both the strategy and the execution, then it's easy to buy and hold through 600 to 900 to 400 to 1000 and never notice (I did). Because the strategy hasn't changed, and the news has only gotten better.

The addressable markets are, if anything, bigger. The competition proves repeatedly how slow and incapable of competing they are.


So yeah - you caught a falling knife at $830. With a 10 year investment horizon, you won't remember whether those shares were bought at 830 or 630 or 1330.

That being said, owning the stock as a mental source of cash for Cybertruck can work well. Actually buying the Cybertruck with a TSLA investment is pretty risky. Because the short term movements in the shares are quite volatile. Two or 3 years of sideways trading is also in the company's share price history, and that could mean no Cybertruck for you.

But that 10+ year investment horizon - I see nothing but blue skies ahead.

(Actually - I think there's a good chance we still own those shares when we pass, my wife and I, hopefully 40+ years from today; but there's too much that can change along the way to seriously suggest I have a 40+ year investment horizon TODAY. :))


The simple way to learn about the strategy and execution is to read this board voraciously. For me, that mostly means the investor forum, but I've also hung out in other forums at different times based on my own interests.

Oh - and go test drive any Tesla if you haven't already. A critical component of my own investment thesis is that the product matters. If you haven't at least driven the car, then you've read glowing reviews by other people, but you haven't experienced it for yourself. You need to experience it for yourself. (I consider this non-optional, and a test drive of a 3 should be easy to get).
 
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lafrisbee

Active Member
Dec 13, 2019
1,765
5,767
Indialantic FL
And congratulations on your early success, and welcome to the wild ride (if you watch it daily / weekly / monthly) that is TSLA.
I have a friend who has an S, and I really never asked about it. he likes it, and he is new money first generation American who owns some ferraris. AND he likes his S.
If I go drive one I will understand on a visceral level, but I read between the lines better than most. It isn't the reviews that influence me. It is the people that bought stock based on "the ride," like Cramer (but before him).
The ride may be the most amazing thing I could feel in years. I could leave the car floating, but honestly I've made the decision to play it out this way...just look at what I sat through, all of you supporting me while I sat on my hands, not selling as it dropped.
And my future is secure. I got no needs that aren't met. I just really "want" a cybertruck. At first I was gonna be happy with the basic one. But what the hell...if the stock keeps rising.

And I heard you, yeah, "blah blah blah, the stock moved sideways for years...blah blah." We both think that too much good shugar is going to come in the next 3 years. The thing no one talks about that concerns me solely because I can't see it is how well the Model Y is projected to sell. Smarter people than me think it will, and I've been wrong before. Remember I have a hard time buying things.
 

adiggs

Active Member
Sep 25, 2012
4,373
12,088
Portland, OR
I have a friend who has an S, and I really never asked about it. he likes it, and he is new money first generation American who owns some ferraris. AND he likes his S.
If your friend is like me, he'd probably love to get you behind the wheel. If he offers, the correct response is "yes" or possibly "when", or maybe "how about now?" :)

There's more than 1 way to drive. There are plenty of people that are buy and hold on the stock without having driven the car - I still encourage you to find an excuse to drive, even a test drive. Riding in one is nice, but it's entirely different when its your foot on the go pedal, and your hands on the steering wheel.

It's transformative.

After that, you won't worry about whether Model Y will sell. You'll only wonder how anything sells in that category.

(These days, when I see a new car in the Model X category in the parking lot at work, or on the road, my thought isn't "cool car". My thought is "you coulda had a Model X, and chose not to". :)).


And in my experience, provides nice evidence from outside of the bubble and stock market.
 

EV forever

Supporting Member
Apr 23, 2016
718
5,355
Irvine, CA
TSLA was my first ever purchase of a real stock. And I only dropped "all" of my ROTH 401k into it, which by the numbers I see some of you guys hinting at having in TSLA is pretty low. I think i got my $70k in on January 29th or so for $645/share or so it got me right around 110 shares.
For weeks I had been reading in the Cybertruck Owner's Forum where people posted of how they bought TSLA just to pay for their Cyber vehicle. So I looked at the stock, And I asked the only 2 people I believe are good in the stock market about TSLA. My Dad, and My Chinese Buddy Ivan. (I had to mention he was Chinese because "Ivan" sounds so far off from Chinese that I felt the name was misleading. And I had asked his advice when I was tired of mutual funds. I told him to get me into something with risk and potential high profit. So of course, his choice was Chinese stocks. And then Trump, my guy btw, did the whole tariff crap.)
Well my Dad is old and he has had the mind set since '08 to make solid low-risk investments. And when i went to Ivan in early January he told me that TSLA had already shot up, and I would not capture any of the rise by getting in then ($480/share). So I didn't buy it.
Those damn guys on Cybertruck owners were so boastful....Well I figured a plan. If Tesla and Musk were as good as I was reading about then if I put my Roth into TSLA I could buy the land and a new Cybertruck with all the bells and whistles by the time my number (440,000) was called. And if the stock lagged it would have been because the Cybertuck and Tesla were not performing well so I'd just take what was in my ROTH and just go buy a little land on the creek and fix up my old pick-up.So at the end of January I had seen enough, the stock just kept rising. Ivan was wrong. And I jumped in with both feet.
And in one damn week I had about a 40% gain. ONE WEEK. And then later that day I didn't. Remember this is my first real stock. The first one I decided to buy. You guys were probably a little shook up on that day. But imagine all your ROTH in it and it was the first "play" you ever did in the market. One moment I could almost buy the cheaper Cyber truck and a small bit of land...and the next I could buy a fancy cybertruck and no land. And the market closed for the day.
And I stayed content and hopeful. It climbed real well to over $900 in the middle of February. That "slow" climb would have been exciting if the stock hadn't had done that in one day the month before... my perspective will always be screwed up because of that day it went from 600 to 900...
And then corona hit. I had learned here to buy on the way down. So as my first stock started going down and down and down, I bought a few shares with all the money I had left in the Roth. But my mistake was that I thought the bottom was $830. I did listen to you guys. I did buy on the drop. I just had no idea how over-reactive the government would become. And it went down and down and down and down and down and down.....
I've watched it climb outta the hole back to a Grand.
And the biggest thing I have seen, the thing I never knew before, was how big financial institutions can dick with a stock. I still can't accept it as a legal thing to do. All it is is a way to cheat people. They might as well work as Carneys at the fair.
But hey, I've learned they can't stop the real actions, not completely. And so I sit here, up about 40-50% just wondering about you millionaires that bought the same dollar amount as me in March 2013.
ya know....actually I am might be doing better than almost everyone when it comes to daily % gain? in less than 6 months I've got 50% growth, so yearly doubling? Ok? I bet I beat 99.99% of the people in the market over the last 6 months? right?
Imagine, me wet behind the ears, first time actually picking a stock to invest in , and throwing my entire ROTH 401k on it...
LOL Do I need to put the disclaimer that this is not stock advice and you should all make your own decisions after careful research?

Congratulations! Stay strong in your conviction for TSLA and you will do well. I am so glad you have good advisors here at an early stage in your life!
I missed the boat on Apple - what really hurts about that one is that I had recognized this was going to be a winner when I got the first iPhone. We purchased stock immediately after buying the first iPhone - it was so much superior that anything else around then. The stock doubled over the next year, and my husband convinced me that we should sell and take profit. Big mistake!
With TSLA, that mistake will not be repeated. My husband gets no say in this matter, I manage my own investments now. This stock is a keeper and will be a big part of our retirement in 10-15 years!
 

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,608
21,267
Singapore
There's more than 1 way to drive. There are plenty of people that are buy and hold on the stock without having driven the car - I still encourage you to find an excuse to drive, even a test drive. Riding in one is nice, but it's entirely different when its your foot on the go pedal, and your hands on the steering wheel.

<--- All in TSLA and I don't even have a driver's license. I also lived in countries where Tesla has no stores/presence for most of my time invested, so the only time I get to see any Teslas is when I go on a vacation to a country where Tesla has a presence. First tourist attraction I go to is without fail the local Tesla store :D I also drool over every Tesla I see, take pictures, and keep count of how many S, 3, and X I saw during my vacation :p

I did go for a test drive though a few months after first buying the stock when I lived in Tokyo where they have a Tesla store, but I brought a friend to do the driving.

(These days, when I see a new car in the Model X category in the parking lot at work, or on the road, my thought isn't "cool car". My thought is "you coulda had a Model X, and chose not to". :)).

I think the exact same whenever I see a Cayenne. I'm like... "what a fail, there's no way that car is any better than an X".
 

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,608
21,267
Singapore
Clearly there's a pre-requisite to taking a test drive :)

I actually first asked if the sales people could drive me around, explaining that I was an investor and fan of the CEO, but that I had no driver's license. They said no problem, and made an appointment for me. After talking about it to some people at my gym, one guy said he wanted to come with me, so he ended up driving, but otherwise the sales people would've driven me around :rolleyes:
 
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adiggs

Active Member
Sep 25, 2012
4,373
12,088
Portland, OR
I actually first asked if the sales people could drive me around, explaining that I was an investor and fan of the CEO, but that I had no driver's license. They said no problem, and made an appointment for me. After talking about it to some people at my gym, one guy said he wanted to come with me, so he ended up driving, but otherwise the sales people would've driven me around :rolleyes:

My first test drive was early fall of 2012. That would have been one of the first few thousand Model S's ever built. Easily the most expensive car I'd ever driven, and easily the best performance. I tried 3 times to do a 0-60 in that car (I think those were about 3.5s 0-60mph (or 0-100kph for those that use a rational measurement system)? A lttle faster than a Roadster is how I remember it. I couldn't do it - about 0-55 was as close as I could get. The world was moving too fast and I just couldn't keep my foot on the floor.

It was exhilarating. And it was smooth. And the regen braking was so natural, it made the driving experience even better. I was enthralled and couldn't sleep afterwards for .. a long time, dreaming about having one (actually Model X, but that's a story for another time).


My #1 takeaway from that test drive (there were a few really important ones) was that this product was earth shatteringly game changing. I never had an iPhone moment because I never got one, but I figure this is what others experienced when they got their first / early iPhone.

And that led directly to shares being acquired at $27 - my first 10 bagger, and ~1/3rd of the way to being my 2nd 10 bagger as well. Because the product matters, and this one was so different, it invented a new category (as far as I was concerned). It underpins everything Tesla; if the cars weren't that much better than everything else, then they wouldn't be so attractive in a world where people stopped buying cars for a few months, much less during a normal economy. They wouldn't be wiping out the competition in category after category when they show up and compete.


This is why driving the car (assuming you have a driver's license :D) is so central to my investment thesis, and why I mention that to any buy and hold investor. It's not just a new car. It's the next gen of cars, and it's so far different you need a new scale to measure it. And I've tried, but never succeeded, to put into words just how much better it is.
 

lafrisbee

Active Member
Dec 13, 2019
1,765
5,767
Indialantic FL
If your friend is like me, he'd probably love to get you behind the wheel. If he offers, the correct response is "yes" or possibly "when", or maybe "how about now?" :)

There's more than 1 way to drive. There are plenty of people that are buy and hold on the stock without having driven the car - I still encourage you to find an excuse to drive, even a test drive. Riding in one is nice, but it's entirely different when its your foot on the go pedal, and your hands on the steering wheel.

It's transformative.

After that, you won't worry about whether Model Y will sell. You'll only wonder how anything sells in that category.

(These days, when I see a new car in the Model X category in the parking lot at work, or on the road, my thought isn't "cool car". My thought is "you coulda had a Model X, and chose not to". :)).


And in my experience, provides nice evidence from outside of the bubble and stock market.
Your Post is EXACTLY what I read between the lines of when I was deciding to buy TSLA. Intelligent people posting more about the feeling and rational thoughts getting intertwined, not to sell the stock, but showing how strong the product is in the mind of the consumer.
 
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