over-production with PGE

[sorka]

Just wait, I use like 40 to 60 kwh per day for my heat pumps in the winter. Takes more than AC I believe. And I have days my 30kw of solar only produce 5kwh for the entire day

Our primary heating is a pellet stove as we refuse to use propane in our two HVAC furnaces. Bottom line is we'll have backups for heating sources. I eventually plan to grid defect so you really need heating source backups. Will probably install two more PWs for a total of 5 and and also get a generator.

 

[sorka]

Got the B&W yesterday. Payout was 8.186 cents per kwh.

Sadly, off peak when in 2015 when I got my Model S was only $9.9 cents / kwh. They've increased the off peak EV rate by 300%...even more when you factor in the off peak time changes. Weekends used to be off peak all day long.

 

[Redhill_qik]

Got the B&W yesterday. Payout was 8.186 cents per kwh.

Sadly, off peak when in 2015 when I got my Model S was only $9.9 cents / kwh. They've increased the off peak EV rate by 300%...even more when you factor in the off peak time changes. Weekends used to be off peak all day long.

The published PG&E Net Surplus Compensation Rate for a July true-up is 8.185 cents, so I'm going to assume a rounding error.

 

[sorka]

The published PG&E Net Surplus Compensation Rate for a July true-up is 8.185 cents, so I'm going to assume a rounding error.

The sad thing is the regular nem 3.0 rates are about the same as our 2.0 overproduction rates.

 

[h2ofun]

The sad thing is the regular nem 3.0 rates are about the same as our 2.0 overproduction rates.

This is why I offer my friends free EV charging

 

[Redhill_qik]

Update on the trends for Net Surplus Compensation. Links are to the IOU pages with the original data.

SCE and PG&E are based on an annual net kWh and their numbers reflect the trailing 12 months average. So if you true-up is in April your take the yearly net kWh multiplied by the April yearly NSC rate and that is your compensation. SDGE appears to do this monthly, so on a month-to-month basis your net kWh is multiplied by the monthly NSC rate.

Month	SDGE Monthly	SCE Yearly	PG&E Yearly
1/1/2022	0.05652	0.03767	0.04278
2/1/2022	0.05472	0.03969	0.04501
3/1/2022	0.05091	0.03922	0.04478
4/1/2022	0.04365	0.03926	0.04550
5/1/2022	0.03387	0.04054	0.04723
6/1/2022	0.02887	0.04197	0.04874
7/1/2022	0.03211	0.04313	0.05038
8/1/2022	0.03813	0.04362	0.05169
9/1/2022	0.04553	0.04611	0.05382
10/1/2022	0.05253	0.04977	0.05744
11/1/2022	0.05352	0.05111	0.05783
12/1/2022	0.05332	0.05119	0.05878
1/1/2023	0.06380	0.06212	0.07054
2/1/2023	0.14538	0.07276	0.08169
3/1/2023	0.09079	0.07494	0.08542
4/1/2023	0.07914	0.07778	0.08478
5/1/2023	0.06469	0.07712	0.08788
6/1/2023	0.05336	0.07512	0.08510
7/1/2023	0.04612	0.07224	0.08150
8/1/2023	0.04411	0.07009	0.07903

There was a big trend up in 2022 which has now reversed. Likely because there is a lot more surplus supply in the system with more wind and solar farms coming online. We also have a counter trend with more electrification happening. As an example of electrification, I recently bought a 2nd EV and transferred my last ICE car to my daughter out of state. I think there will be a lot of yo-yo effects over the coming years.

Circling back around to this at the end of the year (2023). The NSC rates continue to drop across the board after the large increases in early 2023.

Utility	Dec 2022 True-Up	Dec 2023 True-Up	Peak
PG&E	0.05878​	0.06941​	May'23 - 0.08788
SCE	0.05119​	0.05881​	Apr'23 - 0.07778
SDGE	0.04531​	0.06416​	Sep'23 - 0.06618

I believe that the run up in Spring 2023 was due to the large increases in natural gas prices and an unusually long and colder winter resulting in higher costs for gas fired plants.

 

[miimura]

That's still not bad. All three utilities are above $0.05/kWh and SVCE pays double the NSC rate for surplus. That is close to or above my levelized cost of solar.