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over-production with PGE

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Has the net surplus compensation rate changed recently? I saw https://www.pge.com/pge_global/comm...s/green-energy-incentives/AB920_RateTable.pdf 8c is much better than 3c.
The 2-3 cents that you see quoted in most NEM documents is from 2020 and 2021. My understanding is that you get the average of the 12 months for your true-up period for your net exports. Mine is from Apr'22 to Mar'23, so I expect that the NSC will average to $0.06124. SVCE doubles this to $0.12248 which is pretty close to the retail E-TOU-C Off-Peak rates ($0.11486-$0.13092) for the same period. SVCE was offering retail generation rates for compensation based on the specific TOU period, but changed to 200% of PGE NSC last April, the change may cost them more this year due to the increasing NSC.

The SDG&E NSC was $0.14538 in Feb 2023, but dropped to $0.09079 for Mar 2023
 
The 2-3 cents that you see quoted in most NEM documents is from 2020 and 2021. My understanding is that you get the average of the 12 months for your true-up period for your net exports. Mine is from Apr'22 to Mar'23, so I expect that the NSC will average to $0.06124. SVCE doubles this to $0.12248 which is pretty close to the retail E-TOU-C Off-Peak rates ($0.11486-$0.13092) for the same period. SVCE was offering retail generation rates for compensation based on the specific TOU period, but changed to 200% of PGE NSC last April, the change may cost them more this year due to the increasing NSC.

The SDG&E NSC was $0.14538 in Feb 2023, but dropped to $0.09079 for Mar 2023
Wow PGE is so stingy comparatively. You can make some serious money by overprovisioning in SDG&E or SVCE.
 
I have heard that PGE compensation for surplus solar power generated and sent to the grid is low but has anybody done the actual financial analysis for this? The rates shown here https://www.pge.com/pge_global/comm...s/green-energy-incentives/AB920_RateTable.pdf has gone up 100% over 1 year. Am I reading this correctly? Will it continue to go up this rapidly?

How long is the payback period after taking this into account? The reason I am asking is that I am trying to see if it makes sense to install solar on a rental property. Their usage is somewhat low, but it has a large (almost flat) roof that has full sun exposure (no shading issues). A secondary problem I am trying to solve is to extend the life of the roof by covering as much as possible with solar panels. Anyone done the analysis that they can share?
 
I have heard that PGE compensation for surplus solar power generated and sent to the grid is low but has anybody done the actual financial analysis for this? The rates shown here https://www.pge.com/pge_global/common/pdfs/solar-and-vehicles/green-energy-incentives/AB920_RateTable.pdf has gone up 100% over 1 year. Am I reading this correctly? Will it continue to go up this rapidly?

How long is the payback period after taking this into account? The reason I am asking is that I am trying to see if it makes sense to install solar on a rental property. Their usage is somewhat low, but it has a large (almost flat) roof that has full sun exposure (no shading issues). A secondary problem I am trying to solve is to extend the life of the roof by covering as much as possible with solar panels. Anyone done the analysis that they can share?
The payback is currently still infinite if you are talking about payback assuming only surplus solar unless you can get solar at less than $0.08/kWh. I seriously doubt it will go up at the same rate. I expect that credits energy "sold" to the grid during the primary solar hours will actually head towards zero or even become negative.

It's really hard to do solar on rentals but I did an expansion on the solar on one anyway. I have a slight advantage in that utilities are "bundled" in the rent so I gain some of the benefit if I make the place more cost efficient. The incentives for landlords to improve the energy efficiency of rental stock is almost always backwards. I'm currently making "bad" economic choices in installing more solar and more efficient HVAC systems because that's what I would want if I was the renter. I try to make it work so at least I'm not taking a huge bath financially.
 
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Solar
The payback is currently still infinite if you are talking about payback assuming only surplus solar unless you can get solar at less than $0.08/kWh. I seriously doubt it will go up at the same rate. I expect that credits energy "sold" to the grid during the primary solar hours will actually head towards zero or even become negative.

It's really hard to do solar on rentals but I did an expansion on the solar on one anyway. I have a slight advantage in that utilities are "bundled" in the rent so I gain some of the benefit if I make the place more cost efficient. The incentives for landlords to improve the energy efficiency of rental stock is almost always backwards. I'm currently making "bad" economic choices in installing more solar and more efficient HVAC systems because that's what I would want if I was the renter. I try to make it work so at least I'm not taking a huge bath financially.
How do I calculate solar cost in terms of $/kWh? The roof gets 1800 hour/yr of usable sunlight. Installers give cost only in $/KW installed capacity. Since the roof is almost flat, is there an easy way to estimate kWh generated per year?
 
I have heard that PGE compensation for surplus solar power generated and sent to the grid is low but has anybody done the actual financial analysis for this? The rates shown here https://www.pge.com/pge_global/comm...s/green-energy-incentives/AB920_RateTable.pdf has gone up 100% over 1 year. Am I reading this correctly? Will it continue to go up this rapidly?

How long is the payback period after taking this into account? The reason I am asking is that I am trying to see if it makes sense to install solar on a rental property. Their usage is somewhat low, but it has a large (almost flat) roof that has full sun exposure (no shading issues). A secondary problem I am trying to solve is to extend the life of the roof by covering as much as possible with solar panels. Anyone done the analysis that they can share?
The Net Surplus Compensation rates have been going up over the past year, but I doubt that this will continue at the same rate. This is a minor component in determining your payback period with the major component being avoiding charges by not importing and net compensation on your exports.

Most, but not all, CCAs offer higher rates that PG&E for your annual net exports.
 
Solar

How do I calculate solar cost in terms of $/kWh? The roof gets 1800 hour/yr of usable sunlight. Installers give cost only in $/KW installed capacity. Since the roof is almost flat, is there an easy way to estimate kWh generated per year?
Every reasonable estimate gives you an annual production estimate. Pick an expected lifetime for the system (20 to 30 years are reasonable numbers to use). Multiply the annual production estimate. Add in a little factor to how much degradation you expect (I would multiply the estimate by 0.85 for an average of 15% degradation as a starting point). The installers may already have factored in degradation. You decide if you need the adjustment. Multiply the numbers together and you have your lifetime production.

Now add up your costs. This is your net install price plus any maintenance cost you expect. Divide this by the expected lifetime production you have $/kWh.

Note that this will be in present dollars (mostly). But this makes super simple to get a first order idea on how much you are paying for solar. I don't really understand why solar companies "hide" this. I expect you will get a value between $0.10/ kWh (DIY where you assign $0 value to your labor) to $0.30/kWh

Note that this ignores opportunity cost on the money you paid (if paying cash). If you are financing you can use the total payment. Basically there is a more sophisticated way to analyze this that will include the time value of money. But the simple approach will tell you if you are even remotely close and then you can decide if you want to do the more sophisticated version. I'll leave that for someone else to explain.
 
I just received my check for net exports over the last year from SVCE. This was less than a month from the last billing date, for those complaining about EBCE and PG&E slow checks. I had calculated that the average Net Surplus Compensation average from April'22 to April'23 (13 months due to a change that occurred in 2022) to be $0.06127/kWh, but the check calculates to $0.06797/kWh. BTW, SVCE actually pays at twice that rate.

I tried playing around with different ways to calculate the average over the period and was unsuccessful. The net kWh that I have calculated matches what it says on the last PG&E blue bill, so I know that factor is correct. Since they gave me more than I expected, I'm not going to spend any more time on why at this point.
 
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I just received my check for net exports over the last year from SVCE. This was less than a month from the last billing date, for those complaining about EBCE and PG&E slow checks. I had calculated that the average Net Surplus Compensation average from April'22 to April'23 (13 months due to a change that occurred in 2022) to be $0.06127/kWh, but the check calculates to $0.06797/kWh. BTW, SVCE actually pays at twice that rate.

I tried playing around with different ways to calculate the average over the period and was unsuccessful. The net kWh that I have calculated matches what it says on the last PG&E blue bill, so I know that factor is correct. Since they gave me more than I expected, I'm not going to spend any more time on why at this point.
Weird mystery solved and another example of really poor clarity in PG&E bill statements, although blame may be with SVCE.
  1. The published PG&E NSC rates is the average for prior 12 months and not the instant rate for the month, so for my April true-up NSC rate was $0.08748/kWh. I did not realize this and was averaging the average.
  2. On my April true-up month Blue bill the CCA/SVCE section said:
    1. "Your cumulative kWh relevant period year-to-date: -2771 kWh
  3. The -2771 kWh included -618 kWh for a few days in March and most of April and it shouldn't have been included
    1. Backing this out reduces the true-up amount to -2153 kWh
  4. So, 2153 kWh * $0.08748/kWh * 200% = $376.69 which is what SVCE paid me
I don't know if the bill misinformation is PG&E's screwup or SVCE's. My current bill kWh total includes that -618 from April and another -770 for May for a total of 1388 kWh towards my next true-up, so it wasn't lost.

On another note, SVCE changed from TOU retail rate compensation to 200% * NSC after April 2022. I think they did this to reduce the amount paid out to Net Generators, but if they hadn't changed I would have only received $295.52. Which is the opposite of what should have happened.

I did change my Powerwall behavior significantly when they made this change and reduced the amount of use during Peak, so that I could export more that would have been lost due to recharge efficiency while still having an annual credit balance for both PG&E and SVCE at true-ups. My prior year export was higher at 4186 kWh, this past year was lower as I lost 60 days when SE inverter died and used an extra 250 kWh for my hybrid water heater and added an EV.
 
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Update on the trends for Net Surplus Compensation. Links are to the IOU pages with the original data.

SCE and PG&E are based on an annual net kWh and their numbers reflect the trailing 12 months average. So if you true-up is in April your take the yearly net kWh multiplied by the April yearly NSC rate and that is your compensation. SDGE appears to do this monthly, so on a month-to-month basis your net kWh is multiplied by the monthly NSC rate.

MonthSDGE
Monthly
SCE
Yearly
PG&E
Yearly
1/1/20220.056520.037670.04278
2/1/20220.054720.039690.04501
3/1/20220.050910.039220.04478
4/1/20220.043650.039260.04550
5/1/20220.033870.040540.04723
6/1/20220.028870.041970.04874
7/1/20220.032110.043130.05038
8/1/20220.038130.043620.05169
9/1/20220.045530.046110.05382
10/1/20220.052530.049770.05744
11/1/20220.053520.051110.05783
12/1/20220.053320.051190.05878
1/1/20230.063800.062120.07054
2/1/20230.145380.072760.08169
3/1/20230.090790.074940.08542
4/1/20230.079140.077780.08478
5/1/20230.064690.077120.08788
6/1/20230.053360.075120.08510
7/1/20230.046120.072240.08150
8/1/20230.044110.070090.07903

There was a big trend up in 2022 which has now reversed. Likely because there is a lot more surplus supply in the system with more wind and solar farms coming online. We also have a counter trend with more electrification happening. As an example of electrification, I recently bought a 2nd EV and transferred my last ICE car to my daughter out of state. I think there will be a lot of yo-yo effects over the coming years.
 
Hi @wwu123,

my goal was to understand whether I made a huge mistake of installing solar recently, coupled later with some family members deciding to live elsewhere, and realizing then that I would have a relatively huge net surplus of energy at true-up time (and being paranoid about PGE). As I was reading the PGE NEM2 spec, in Special Conditions section 5 on NetSurplusCompensation, I became concerned that I might violate something for producing way more energy than I consumed. Without doing anything, I'll have 1000-4000 kWh surplus with only a 5kW installation. But responses here so far indicate that there is no consequence for me, only that the utility will happily sell my excess energy at market rates but only reimburse me about $0.04/kWh for it. I knew that before I dived in, but I didn't plan for the reduced occupancy. I was of the belief that the utility didn't want my unused excess energy. And no, I'm not interested in a battery. But thanks for the response!

My true-up was a few days ago. PG&E paid me 8 cents / kwh for my 1.2 mwh excess.