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The 100 pack is physically larger than the 90 and requires chassis changes to fit. I highly doubt there will be a retrofit option.
Wait, so they would have a different chassis depending on battery pack? That will add a lot to their cost of production. It's actually a refresh of the refresh.
systemcrashed
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My speculation, only speculation is that the pack itself will be the same size, the contents of the pack will consist of the newer 21700 cells, since diameter is larger so fewer cells in the pack but at a 33% increase in capacity nets you a 10KW increase for the pack as a whole, 5mm increase in height is easier to compensate for and fit into existing chassis design.
Trev Page
Member
Can't be. The 2170 cells are not even in production yet at the Gigafactory and the initial production is all slated for Model 3. In time those cells will make it to the Model S, this has been confirmed but I'm of the opinion the 100kWh battery pack energy increase is through cell chemistry improvements alone.
systemcrashed
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Well, that could mean one of a few things. Either you are correct and they have been able to squeeze over 10% more energy into the existing 18650 cells, they are capable of fitting 10% more 18650 cells into existing packs, or the slated 100KW pack composed of 21700 cells is further out than people suspect. My money is on new cells, Panasonic as well as Samsung are already producing these overseas.
My guess is that they are 21700 cells from Japan. Tesla must have been testing and validating these cells for probably (total guess) for over a year. Moving up the timeline for the model 3 may have prompted Panasonic to retool a factory for 21700 ahead of the gigafactory installation.
This would provide Tesla a year to get the factory up and running, production and processes ironed out before the massive ramp in cell production for the model 3.
This would provide Tesla a year to get the factory up and running, production and processes ironed out before the massive ramp in cell production for the model 3.
The new 60 isn't in CARB:
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Why would the 100 pack be physically larger? I believe the cells planned for the 100 pack are the same geometry as the 90's cells.
The 2170s will not be made in Japan, they will be introduced at the Gigafactory and they aren't in production yet. When they do go into production, the prediction is the energy density of a pack will go up by 33-40%. It the physical size of the pack changes to make a 100 KWh battery, it will be smaller, not bigger.
Now if you increase the capacity of the 75 KWh pack by 33%, that gets you a 99.75 KWh pack. The small pack will be the 100 KWh pack and the large pack will be around 120 KWh (119.7 KWh). If Tesla wants to make a clear distinction between the Model 3 and S, that would be the way to do it. If the cost of a small pack 100 KWh is the same or a little cheaper than the current 75 KWh and the cost of the large pack 120 KWh is the same or cheaper than a current 90, that will make a clear distinction between even the big pack Model 3, which may have a 70-75 KWh battery pack and range approaching 300 miles if not a little over and the Model S which will start at over 300 miles range for the entry model and will be close to 400 miles for the large pack, there will still be an incentive to get the Model S.
Since the badge for a P100D was found in the firmware, I think Tesla currently has a 3rd generation battery cell that is a little better than the 2nd generation cell (used in the 70 and 90 packs) and it is being used in the current 75 packs, but the 90 has not been upgraded yet due to supply shortages. Once there are enough of the 3rd generation cells available, Tesla will start putting in 100 KWh packs, but until then, we have the 75 and the 90.
When the GF can produce enough cells to fill all needs, they will likely introduce a 100 and 120 pack. Because there has been delays in getting the 3rd generation cells in cars and the GF is a little ahead of schedule, the large pack 100 may never happen and the large pack cars might jump from 90 to 120. I would hope they will introduce a pack upgrade program soon after introduction of the new cells because it would be worth it to upgrade from 90 to 120 for a lot of people, including me. With a 120 pack I could easil make it from here to the Bay Area with only two supercharger stops, one if I really wanted to stretch it to the max and drive slow (it's 700 miles).
systemcrashed
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On a Gigafactory tour, an associate mentioned that they were importing a certain number of cells, I didn't catch the number, percentage or even what type of cell. But food for thought.
This is what I was wondering. Tesla is not going to introduce the 2170 cells into production without a long period of validation. With absolute certainty, there are a bunch of 2170 Teslas out there using Japanese produced cells. I wondered if those might be the test P100Ds that were exposed.
The timeline isn't absurd. They're looking at production at the GF later this year. Since Panasonic is providing the major 2170 production equipment, they have to have a pilot line producing 2170 cells in Japan right now; the Japanese don't do anything without a ton of testing. It could well be that they've been building enough 2170 inventory to go into the P100s. And as the GF comes on line they could migrate the cells out to the rest of the line.
I have a hard time imagining a 11% increase in capacity just from chemistry changes, that would like a high endurance automotive grade 3800mAh 18650. The pack may be larger in Z-height due to the extra 5mm in height of the 21700's. Not sure if the current pack design can accommodate the increase in height.
JB and Elon has stated over multiple times that the 3 will receive technology that has already iterated into from the S and X. Can't think of a better time to introduce the 21700's in a 100kw pack and ONLY in the 100kw pack where the margins are better. The 75's will stay with 18650's until the gigafactory is up and running producing cells at a price point that is cheaper than the 18650's.
However this does raise the question of why only 100kw? If the switch the 2170 is going to provide 20-30%+ in density, why not release a 110kw pack. The X can sure use those the extra KW's for towing.
I can see an 11% increase in capacity from chemistry improvements alone. Probably the most widespread R&D effort in the world right now is improving batteries. Efforts are going into long term major improvements as well as picking the low hanging fruit of incremental improvements. Some of the low hanging fruit improvements are starting to come into production now. The major changes won't be seen for a few years.
The details of chemistry improvements are so complex with so many variables, nobody fully understands it, but it also means the size of improvements can range from small to moderate in size.
ithinkmac
Member
Thought that I read that the new Leaf, eGolf and i3 have increased in battery capacity with the same physical dimensions, but just newer generation with better chemistry. Everything else being the same, just better capacity battery. 30% increase or something like that.
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