Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Wednesday's market trading was the last chance to place a bet on Investor Day or take some profits. TSLA got pushed below 200 during the first hour but spent the rest of the day recovering,

The first deep dip of Investor Day's after-hours trading occurred as traders realized the emphasis of the presentation really was on long-term goals and methods of Tesla, rather than surprising everyone with a flashing Model 2 to be driven onto the stage. We did learn that the next gigafactory will indeed be near Monterrey, Mexico, and that factory, along with some existing factories will be building the next generation of Tesla vehicles. The next generation was described more as a line of vehicles using next level manufacturing methods to lower the costs and factory footprint, rather than the emphasis being on one particular model. Progress with dry electrode technologies was presented as ongoing improvements and output currently underway rather than an "it's all solved" declaration. Lots of great new technologies coming our way, lots of reasons for Tesla to continue pulling ahead of the competition, but not the magic pill that traders were looking for. Gene Munster gave an analysts-view summary here. A lot of overly-enthusiastic call options will expire unused this week, which is likely tied to the after-hours dip, but long-term Tesla looks poised to do what they've been promising all along. Can't wait for Tesla's plans here to unfold.

One of my positive takeaways is that when I listen to the Tesla team on stage I realize that if Elon were to disappear tomorrow, Tesla would continue and reach its mission. This corporate culture is something no other U.S. manufacturer can duplicate. It's a rare commodity that we own stock in.

Looking toward Thursday's trading, shorts and hedgies will of course try to maximize a sell the news dip, but market makers have nothing to gain from a dip, since max pain is even with or above the current stock price. We may see market open selling that turns into a buy the dip opportunity as the day or week progresses. It may take a few days for the significance of Investor Day to be packaged in tight enough stories for Wall Street to appreciate. I'll be looking forward, in particular, to any Sandy Monroe comments.

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds exceeded 4% at times on Wednesday and closed at 3.99%

Max pain climbed to 205 on Wednesday morning. Check out how the 200 strike shrunk and 210 is the prevailing call wall at the moment.

Wednesday's options volumes

Conditions:
* Dow up 5 (0.02%)
* NASDAQ down 76 ( 0.66%)
* SPY down 2 (0.38%)
* TSLA 202.77, down 2.94 (1.43%)
* TSLA volume 147.7M shares
* Oil 77.68
* IV 63.1, 46%
* Max Pain 205
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 53%

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

So the sell the news event is here, ho hum. Let me just mention why I don't trim TSLA holdings in case of a sell the news. If the stock price goes down on basically good news, it'll go back up soon enough and nothing is lost. OTOH, if you lightened your holdings prior to the event, that event (due to Murphy's Law) would be like the Model 3 reveal and would send the stock much higher before you got back in. Thus, HODLing is the safe move.

Overall, I would say that much of TSLA's weakness on Thursday had to do with speculative traders jumping ship and market makers doing delta-hedge selling to account for tons of call options likely expiring worthless on Friday. Still, there's mischief afoot, methinks. Percent of selling by shorts ran up to 55%, and we saw over 2 million shares trade hands in the 4pm closing cross. Up through1:30pm or so TSLA responded to QQQ moves. A bit before 2pm, though, QQQ ran substantially higher and into the green while TSLA languished. I suspect this afternoon weakness of TSLA relative to QQQ could have involved MM delta-hedge selling, but with max pain above 200, I doubt that the market makers would be working hard to hold TSLA near 190.

Regarding Investor Day, Wall Street was disappointed because Tesla didn't provide enough details about the upcoming Gen 3 vehicle(s) or show a flashy mockup on stage. Of course there was no Model 2 on the stage because it would Osborne current vehicles for buyers who are price-conscious. There were no wishful thinking timetables so that analysts could start typing numbers into a spreadsheet. Instead, Tesla left it up to investors to connect the dots.

One of the best dot-connectors so far is Dave Lee (TMC's @DaveT ). Here's a video of Dave being interviewed a day before the event by Farzad Mesbahi. Dave got right that Tesla would radically cut costs by reinventing the production process. In a second video created around midnight of Investor Day, Dave lays out the new assembly methods and points out that the initial assembly of the vehicles in sections will make the process friendlier for Tesla Bot.

Now we have a new piece to involve in the dot-connecting. In this story Tweeted by Sawyer Merritt, we learn that Tom Zhu has been talking to the governor of the Monterrey area and talking up Tesla's desire to beat the 9 months from construction beginning to producing first vehicles record set at Giga Shanghai. Since the first vehicle produced at that factory will be a Gen 3, the timetable for the next generation of Tesla vehicles moves tantalizingly closer. Retail will be holding and also increasing shares held. Let's see which analysts succeed in connecting the dots in a timely fashion.

Futures are down Thursday night, perhaps because 10 yr. treasury bond yields just exceeded 4%. There's a name for dips on good news: buying opportunities.

News:
* The Reno Gazette-Journal reports that Nevada has agreed to a $330 million tax incentive for Tesla's expanded operations just east of the Reno/Sparks area in Northern Nevada.

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds climbed above 4% on Thursday and closed at 4.06%

Percent of selling by shorts climbed to 55% on Thursday, suggesting increased manipulations

Max pain Thursday morning was 202.50. Looking at the open interest chart above, the 200 strike is still favoring call options

Thursday's options volumes

Saved by the lower bollinger band. Trading flirted with the lower bollinger band in early morning trading but then rose higher within minutes

Conditions:
* Dow up 342 (1.05%)
* NASDAQ up 84 (0.73%)
* SPY up 3 (0.78%)
* TSLA 190.90, down 11.87 (5.85%)
* TSLA volume 181.2M shares
* Oil 77.96
* IV 59.0, 31%
* Max Pain 202.50
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 55%

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

I am still under time constraints...
Friday was a strong day for both the macros and TSLA, up until about 1pm. After that time, QQQ continued to rise and TSLA appeared capped at 200. In the final hour of market trading, TSLA dipped on no apparent news. My translation: it's all about options expirations and the manipulations that go on behind the scenes as the various players work to maximize their gains for the week. Market makers made out well, with TSLA closing just $2.79 above max pain.

The return to strength of TSLA on Friday is likely a result of investors having time to ponder the Investor's Day message and to realize that Tesla is going to leave the rest of the automobile manufacturers in the dust once the next generation vehicles start being produced.

News:
* Sandy Munro published this video where he confirmed how impressed he is with Tesla's plans revealed on Investor Day
* Solving the Money Problem gives a good summary of how retail investors have turned up the buying of TSLA hugely in 2023 and how some analysts are now catching on to Tesla's future.

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds retreated from Thursday's 4% numbers and closed the week at 3.96%

Max pain was 195 Friday morning and the stock price closed at 197.79. I'm sure it's just another one of those consistent coincidences. /s

Friday's options volumes

For this coming Friday Max pain is also 195. That big put wall at 190 should be helpful should the market have a down week

Check out how closely max pain and closing price on Fridays came together in 3 out of the past 4 weeks. Coincidence? Nope!

For the week, TSLA closed at 197.79, up 91 cents from the previous Friday's 196.88. Considering the Investor Day sell the news dip, that's really not too bad. Hoping all of you enjoyed your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 387 (1.17%)
* NASDAQ up 226(1.97%)
* SPY up 6 (1.60%)
* TSLA 197.79, up 6.89 (3.61%)
* TSLA volume 153.8M shares
* Oil 79.42
* IV 57.2, 26%
* Max Pain 195 for Mar3 and also Mar10
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 51%

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart

QQQ chart

Although retail investors were bullish on TSLA in pre-market trading, the big dogs pushed TSLA lower right after open and kept TSLA in the red throughout the day. Two stories likely affected the market for TSLA shares negatively on Monday. First, Tesla announced lower prices for S and X, and move that signals demand issues to most institutional investors. Secondly, Troy Teslike has been stating that Europe and China are lower deliveries than usual (but according to Teslarati, Germany saw a 90% increase in Tesla deliveries in January and February). OTOH, U.S. and rest of world are higher. As part of the demand statement, Troy in this Tweet pointed out that unsold Teslas imported into Europe were being marked down 6%.

Thanks to @Singuy for bringing to our attention this Roland Pircher chart of the past week of China insured units. The trend is positive.

The flip side of any possible short-term issues affecting yields is that Investor Day shows Tesla as being positioned brilliantly to move far ahead of the competition when Gen 3 vehicles enter production. This disparity between short-term question marks and long-term bullishness may explain the different attitudes of retail vs. institutional investors, since institutional investors are more focused on short-term stock performance.

Meanwhile, Ihor Dusaniwsky computes TSLA shorts being down more than $56 billion since 2010. The past year, 2020 2022, was the only year in which they make a profit.

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds drifted slightly higher to 3.97%

Max pain remained at 195 Monday morning. You can see that very tall put wall at 190 which market makers would like to protect. The 200 calls are the highest wall at this point. The 195 strike is dominated by puts, and so the MMs would prefer for TSLA to drift above 195. News and investor sentiment could be more powerful, however.

Monday's options volumes

Notice the significantly lower volume compared to the past few weeks.

Conditions:
* Dow up 40 (0.12%)
* NASDAQ down 13 (0.11%)
* SPY up 0 (0.07%)
* TSLA 193.81, down 3.98 (2.01%)
* TSLA volume 128.1M shares
* Oil 80.66
* IV 58.0, 28%
* Max Pain 195
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 53%

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Tuesday brought a little of everything to TSLA trading. We saw a deep mandatory morning dip that bottomed out at 10:08am. Looks like the macro dip inspired the shorts to add fuel to the fire and with the quick recovery as well we see a midwestern tornado, which to my eye is typically a pattern involving manipulations. The macros started a recovery and TSLA actually went positive around 12:50pm, outperforming QQQ, but then Darth Powell threw cold water on the market with his Congressional testimony, suggesting that Fed rates might have to rise to 6% and stay there longer. Mr. Market was not pleased and so both the macros and TSLA dipped into the close.

You can see an oversized dip of TSLA in the final 15 minutes of market trading. This was not a macro-induced decline and since Tesla news was missing I think the likely culprit is a short/hedgie manipulation to get TSLA some distance below the 190 level. If you look at recent daily charts, a late afternoon dip just before market close has become a regular thing. When a pattern becomes too regular traders show up to play the pattern, and then the pattern goes away (at least for a while). Percent of selling by shorts was 61%, which supports manipulation theories, and volume in the 4pm closing cross was 1.5M shares, suggesting plenty of opportunity to cover day-shorting.

News:
* This post on reddit and others referring to software updates indicate that FSD hardware 4.0 is already being delivered in Model S and Model X vehicles
* This Tweet says that FSD version 11.3 software is now shipping to customers

Percent of selling tagged to shorts ran way up to 61% on Tuesday, suggesting lots of manipulating going on

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds closed ever so slightly below 4% on Tuesday

Max pain remained in its perpetual 195 position Tuesday morning. Strike 190 remained heavily puts, 195 drifted more evenly toward an even split, and 200 is becoming a tall call wall.

Tuesday's options volumes

Saved by the lower bollinger band once again. The chart is now starting to resemble a cup and handle pattern, which is typically bullish.

Conditions:
* Dow down 575 (1.72%)
* NASDAQ down 145 (1.25%)
* SPY down 6 (1.53%)
* TSLA 187.71, down 6.10 (3.15%)
* TSLA volume 148.1M shares
* Oil 77.51
* IV 59.2, 32%
* Max Pain 195
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 61%

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

It's been a challenging week for TSLA so far- Monday: down 2%, Tuesday: down 3%, Wednesday: down 3%. We've seen substantial indications of manipulations, so it's quite likely mischief is afoot. OTOH, big dog investors may be doing some trimming as the negative Tesla stories heat up. Here's a summary:
* Model Y steering wheel issues: Please take a look at Rob Maurer's video podcast for a summary. Two 2023 Model Ys were discovered with an important bolt loose. Rob also covers FSD V11.3, fear of more Fed interest rate hikes, a look at China delivery numbers so far, and a look into Model X inventory spike.
* Just about every mainstream media outlet covered the downgrade of TSLA by Benenberg from buy to hold. What most failed to mention was this stated reason for the move, "We downgrade our rating to Hold now that our Buy thesis – based on misplaced fears of a price war – appears to have been accepted by the market," Benenberg also raised its price target from 200 to 210.
* Concerns about how the Darth Powell interest rate increases will affect auto loan interest rates and in turn affect sales of autos.
* Continued concerns about Q1 deliveries in China and Europe

OTOH, we also saw evidence on Wednesday that suggests things aren't so bad after all:
* This Tweet says that UK's inventory of Teslas dropped from over a thousand to just 374 in a single day
* This TMC post by @Singuy summarizes important points from a recent Tom Zhu interview including the fact that Shanghai workers were asked if they wanted to take Chinese New Year off this year and 80% said yes. Zhu says the reason for the closure was not lack of demand.
* Roland Pircher in this Tweet lays out the first two months of Q1 sales in China in a chart and concludes Tesla could still set a new record in Q1.

News:
* Initial reactions to FSD software 11.3 have been positive so far

Percent of selling by shorts fell to 51% on Wednesday. While high percent of selling by shorts numbers are a good indication of manipulations underway, a somewhat lower percent is not a reliable indication of less manipulation activity. Why? The really big manipulators such as hedge funds have access to dark pools and can arrange their short-sales outside of FINRA exchanges (and thereby escape detection of short-selling).

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds fell Wednesday morning but returned to near 4% by close

Max pain was 195 yet again Wednesday morning

Wednesday's options volumes

Three negative TSLA days in a row this week has led to enough of a fall in the stock price that both the upper and lower bollinger bands are opening wider to accommodate higher volatility. This widening of the bands plus the stock price falling slightly below the lower BB on Wednesday is causing the lower bollinger band to start dipping quicker (which then makes further pushdowns easier).

Conditions:
* Dow down 58 (0.18%)
* NASDAQ up 46 (0.40%)
* SPY up 1(%)
* TSLA 182.00, down 5.71 (3.04%)
* TSLA volume 151.9M shares
* Oil 76.71
* IV 58.5, 30%
* Max Pain 195
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 51%

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Here are my thoughts on what's going on with TSLA. On Monday the NASDAQ closed up but TSLA closed down. On Tuesday, we saw unusually high shorting activity with TSLA, so early in the week the stock price was definitely getting a push down by the Wall Street pirates. As the week progressed, the markets got the Darth Powell jitters as Fed watchers started predicting a greater than 50-50 chance that the Fed raises interest rates a half percent (rather than the recent quarter percent) at its FOMC meeting. For the week, NASDAQ is down 3%, which would make a dip of about 6.2% rather normal for TSLA. Instead, TSLA is down 13%. What happens once TSLA starts one of these dips is that algos go into selling mode and many buyers hold off buying until the dip has bottomed out. Such behavior is now the norm for TSLA on a large dip. The stock can recover quickly when conditions are right, but for now Darth Powell is doing a splendid job of screwing up the market, and various pirates have been accelerating TSLA's dip during the process.

To get the markets and TSLA out of the dip, good (meaning bad) economic data would be the ticket. On Friday we see an employment report and if employment power is shifting away from applicants and toward those doing the hiring, that is good for those fearing Darth Powell, and the market (and TSLA) should rise. If Friday's data doesn't do the trick, we have the CPI released Tuesday morning of next week and PPI released Wednesday morning. Month over month comparisons should be better than last month since the CPI isn't seeing a change in computation methodology this time around and since last month's CPI came in warmer than expected. Year over year should also be easier to look good since we're still in that range of base months rising by approx. half a percent per month. On March 22 Powell proclaims the latest interest rate assault on the markets and the economy.

Looking at Thursday's trading, the morning was positive for QQQ and TSLA as jobless claims rose to the highest levels since December. The markets swooned in the afternoon as Silicon Valley Bank warned of losses in bond sales due to the rapidly rising interest rates. I highlight this point because when the Fed gets too footloose and fancy free in the speed at which it raises rates, bad things can happen to sectors of the economy without a whole lot of warning. Bank stocks fell because of this issue and the banks drove down the whole market. Let's keep those fingers crossed that Friday's, Tuesday's, and Wednesday's data will calm fears of Darth Powell and allow TSLA and the broader markets to begin reclaiming lost ground.

News:
* Adam Jonas of Morgan-Stanley made the rather ridiculous claim that cybertruck may just be a niche vehicle, limited to about 50K deliveries per year.

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds closed down, around 3.93% on Thursday. In the morning, when jobless numbers came in higher than expected, we saw a dip in yields, but it disappeared by noon. When word came out of Silicon Valley Bank running into problems due to losses on bond sales caused by the rapidly increasing interest rates (take a bow, Mr. Powell), yields fell.

Max pain dropped $5 to 190 by Thursday morning. We'll see what Friday morning's numbers look like, but if the market makers can push TSLA above 180 for the close, then they will have bagged another big win. Don't expect an upward push if the macros are falling, though. The big put wall was at 170 on Thursday, and so MMs will try to hold the line there if possible.

Thursday's options volumes

Six of the past seven trading sessions have been red for TSLA. At this point the lower bollinger band is chasing the stock price and offering no help.

Conditions:
* Dow down 543 (1.66%)
* NASDAQ down 238 (2.05%)
* SPY down 392 0 (1.84%)
* TSLA 172.92, down 9.08 (4.99%)
* TSLA volume 170.0M shares
* Oil 74.92
* IV 62.1, 44%
* Max Pain 190
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 46%

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Friday would normally be an oddity with NASDAQ down 1.76% and TSLA up 0.30% on no specific news about Tesla. Granted, TSLA had descended a silly amount during the week compared the the macros. The bottom line for TSLA's strength on Friday: market makers didn't want to see all those puts at 170 strike come into the money. Nuff said.

The bigger picture is that Friday's drop for all the macros was due to the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and problems with a couple other banks as well. Bank stocks dragged the markets down. If you look at the 10 yr. treasury bond yields chart below, you'll see a massive dip below 3.7%. SVB ran into problems by investing too heavily in long-term treasuries and as interest rates went up (due to Darth Powell's unprecedented rate of raising rates), the value of treasuries sold when rates were lower plummeted. Thus, we are starting to see examples of how the unexpectedly strong speed of fed interest rate hikes is harming some banks and spreading fear. Fed watchers are now discounting the chances of a raise of half a percent at the Fed's next FOMC meeting. The government reassured customers of SVB that they will all be made whole. Market futures are way up.

More and more economy watchers are joining me in believing that the Fed is overdoing these interest rate hikes. In this video, Cathy Wood explains that the Fed is using lagging indicators to make its decisions. She also points out that the mandate for the Fed is to work toward maximum employment and control inflation. Raising rates because there's excess demand for workers seems contradictory to the Fed's purpose. Another useful resource is the website is www.truflation.com , which is referenced in this excellent video of Randy Kirk interviewing data analyst Joe Munaretto regarding drawing conclusions about inflation from the data. The bottom line is that Munaretto thinks the Fed getting its nickers all tied up in a knot over a one month (last month) excursion of inflation data is just bad data interpretation. His graph with both 3 and 6 month averaging shows that when these one month excursions are rounded over time, the true trend can be seen, and it is definitely downward.

I bring up the inflation issue because we see the next CPI and PPI reports this week. Further, the banking troubles could take some of the steam out of Darth Powell's assault on the markets and a more dovish posture regarding rate of increase and target interest rate could allow the market to turn upwards. Fingers crossed. In the absence of strong Tesla news, perhaps until month's end, the macros and specifically interest rate issues will likely drive TSLA up or down.

Expect an interesting week ahead. There are shorts and hedge funds that want to continue the downward trajectory of TSLA. OTOH, TSLA could potentially get a nice bounce with the rest of the market Monday morning. The pirates prefer the afternoon for their mischief.

Yields on 10 year treasury bonds plummeted to below 3.7% on Friday with news of trouble with a few banks. I think the market is hoping that the banking issues will cause the Fed to reevaluate the speed of its interest rate hikes and go for a quarter percent rather than half a percent at its next FOMC meeting.

Percent of selling tagged to shorts rebounded to 53% on Friday

Max pain this past Friday morning was 185. Looking at the chart, you can see with a huge put wall at 170, the market makers didn't want TSLA to fall below that level on Friday (even though the macros were deep red) and so I think TSLA received a little help from this typically unlikely source.

Friday's options volumes. It was all about 170 puts and 175 calls

No way the max pain could keep up with the stock price dip this past week

For this coming Friday, max pain is sitting at 180. The size of the put wall at 170 has grown to nearly 40K contracts. OTOH, if the week is a positive one (cool CPI and PPI numbers released), then the colocation of substantial puts with calls at all strikes below 200 would remove incentive for the market makers to get too heavy handed holding TSLA down.

Sometimes "sugar" happens and the nice setup for technicals gets overridden by macro and pirate mahem. Let's hope there's a recovery story soon.

For the week, TSLA closed at 173.44, down 24.35 from the previous Friday's 197.79. Here's hoping your weekend was a good one!

Conditions:
* Dow down 345 (1.07%)
* NASDAQ down 199 (1.76%)
* SPY down 6 (1.44%)
* TSLA 173.44, up 0.52 (0.30%)
* TSLA volume 191.5M shares
* Oil 76.68
* IV 63.0, 47%
* Max Pain 185 for Mar10, 180 for Mar17
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 53%

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Monday's trading of TSLA could well have been a sneak bear attack of TSLA in pre-market with a deep mandatory morning dip that greatly exceeded QQQ's dip. TSLA got below 165 before recovering into the green. Why push TSLA down early? I suggest some big players might have wanted to buy at a discount. Check out the Tweet below:

Although the percent of FINRA selling by shorts was a lowish 47%, we saw 4.2 million shares trade during the 4pm closing cross. Hmm.

Meanwhile, Tesla appears to be doing better in both China and Europe than news stories have led us to believe. Here's a Roland Pircher Tweet which shows newly insured Teslas increased for the 4th week in a row.

James Cat Tweets in the screenshot below that over in Europe, Model Y inventory is trending significantly lower. So much for reports that Tesla can't move its vehicles in Europe.

Over the weekend, I suggested that the drop in 10 yr. treasury bond yields was due to the market anticipating lower interest rates than previously expected and so the yield was adjusted. The alternate explanation would be that investors are concerned about a coming recession and are moving money from equities to bonds, and thus the higher bond prices (and lower yields). Of course the answer is often a combination of the two, but I wish to point out that in the past few days mortgage rates have dropped significantly, which supports the thesis that market expectations of dropping interest rates likely is the primary reason.

Tuesday morning before market open we learn the latest CPI numbers and then Wednesday morning the PPI inflation numbers come out. The Fed is already concerned about the possible bank crisis that has been precipitated by the unexpectedly rapid and significant rise in interest rates. As @StarFoxisDown! said in the main investor's forum, cool inflation numbers this week, along with the possible bank crisis, could possibly lead to a pivot in the Fed's interest rate policy. Fingers crossed.

Once again we saw a significant dip in yields for 10 yr. treasury bonds, down to 3.53%.

Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts fell to a rather normal number, 47%, on Monday

Max pain Monday morning was 180. Market makers still have incentive to protect all those sold puts at 170 strike.

TSLA options volumes on Monday. Notice how significantly spread out the options are as traders place bets for this week's stock movements

Hmm, two green days in a row. We haven't seen that since February. On Monday TSLA opened lower, around the 50 day moving average, and managed to close up about 2.50 above the lower bollinger band.

Conditions:
* Dow down 91 (0.28%)
* NASDAQ up 50 (0.45%)
* SPY down 1 (0.14%)
* TSLA 174.48, up 1.04 (0.60%)
* TSLA volume 167.8M shares
* Oil 74.00
* IV 63.7, 49%
* Max Pain 180
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 47%

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

The market liked the very modest improvement in CPI data for February, released Tuesday morning, and both NASDAQ and TSLA soared with hopes that the combination bank crisis and lower inflation indicators will curtail the Fed's hawkish posture. Unfortunately, the CPI results certainly weren't convincing enough to give us a Fed pivot. Nonetheless, NASDAQ closed up 2.14% while TSLA closed up 5.03%, a 2.35X multiplier.

Let's take a quick look at the February CPI results. They were close to neutral, which is a disappointment because moving from Jan to Feb 2022 we saw a 0.5% increase in inflation and thus February 2023 should have been half a percent easier to bring down. No less than 70% of February's increase was attributable to shelter, a component that even Powell considers subject to lags. The absurdity of increasing interest rates to bring down the cost of shelter assumes that demand for shelter will be reduced if interest rates rise. Instead, I think in the long run you would see less construction activity with rate increases, which would reduce the addition of new shelter and eventually push rent prices even higher. Another trouble spot was airline fares. Since I come from the airline industry I can tell you that the airlines didn't anticipate the bounce back of flying activity sufficiently as covid waned, and the airlines were caught with too few planes and too few trained pilots. There's a pilot shortage underway and the long-term solution to expensive airfares is likely a long ways off, and so the problem is on the supply side, not so much the demand side. Raising interest rates again does nothing to solve the immediate problem.

Wednesday we see the PPI inflation numbers before market open. Let's hope we see a real improvement here in order to keep the pressure on the Fed.

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds closed around 3.62% on Tuesday

Max pain continues at 180 as of Tuesday morning. Although the 180 strike is predominantly calls, none of the strikes until you reach 200 are high call walls.

Tuesday's options volumes

Tuesday's price action gives us longs 3 green days in a row and a nice bounce upward, which changes the momentum of market maker delta hedge selling or buying to the favor of buying.

Conditions:
* Dow up 336 (1.06%)
* NASDAQ up 239 (2.14%)
* SPY up 6 (1.65%)
* TSLA 183.26, up 8.78 (5.03%)
* TSLA volume 143.7M shares
* Oil 71.80
* IV 59.7, 34%
* Max Pain 180
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 51%

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Two news stories influenced the market Wednesday morning: Troubles at Credit Suisse and cooler than expected PPI numbers. The good news was that Credit Suisse will receive a $52 billion loan from the Swiss National Bank and thereby survive its current situation. As for the PPI numbers, the index fell 0.1% in February compared to expectations of a 0.3% rise. Retail sales declined 0.4% in the month, which also bodes well for restraint by the Fed in raising interest rates. Here's CNBC's take. Chances of a pause in interest rates increased after both the bank story as well as the cool PPI numbers (and retail sales cooling).

Mr. Market took much of the day to contemplate the good and bad, but after 2pm QQQ rose into the green, where it closed. TSLA gained in the afternoon as well, but had difficulty climbing above 180, the max pain number. Coincidence? Perhaps, but likely not.

With the combination of an uptick in deliveries in Europe and China and the new pressure on the Fed to cut back on its hawkish ways, I am getting bullish once again.

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds dipped lower to 3.46% on Wednesday, likely reacting to the cooler than expected PPI numbers and interest rate implications stemming from the Credit Suisse difficulties

Percent of selling tagged to shorts increased to 53%

Max pain remained at 180 Wednesday morning. When you look the the number of options involved, you can see that this is a week where the market makers really do want a close near the max pain, if possible so that they cash in on a sugarload of profits.

Wednesday's options volumes

The week's bounce is still alive and well after Wednesday's small loss by TSLA

Conditions:
* Dow down 281 (0.87%)
* NASDAQ up 6 (0.05%)
* SPY down 2 (0.63%)
* TSLA 180.45, down 2.81 (1.53%)
* TSLA volume 146M shares
* Oil 68.43
* IV 64.4, 52%
* Max Pain 180
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 53%

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Time constrained once again
Thursday was a big day for the macros, with the Dow up 1.17% and Nasdaq up 2.48%. TSLA gained a "mere" 2.04%. In contrast, NVDA was up 5.42%, AMZN up 3.99%, and ARKK was up 3.07%.

Check out the smoothness of the QQQ rise throughout the day. In contrast, TSLA was just plain jittery, with lots of mini climbs and dips. There's tremendous incentive for the market makers to discourage TSLA's climb above 180 with a much higher than number of options expiring on Friday, and so I believe they're at work with the sledge-o-matic whenever they can make a difference. Percent of selling by shorts was pretty tame at 47% and volume during the closing cross was high (1.7M shares), but not excessively so. With the tools available to the market makers (such as naked shorting) mischief can indeed be underway without these other data points screaming "manipulation".

News:
* Electrek says Tesla has applied to expand GigaBerlin to 1 million vehicles per year

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds moved up to 3.57% on Thursday

Max pain remained at 180. The high number of contracts expiring on Friday hides the fact that there's lots on the line for some nearby strike prices. For example, Although 190 has tall put and call levels, calls outnumber puts by some 22,000 contracts, giving the market makers lots of incentive to play games and minimize TSLA's climb this week

Thursday's options volumes

The slow bounce continues

Conditions:
* Dow up 372 (1.17%)
* NASDAQ up 283 (2.48%)
* SPY up 7 (1.75%)
* TSLA 184.13, up 3.68 (2.04%)
* TSLA volume 121.4M shares
* Oil 68.65
* IV 60.4, 37%
* Max Pain 180
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 47%

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

So, the plot thickens. As we last left off both Thursday and Friday showed significant incentive for market makers to be pushing TSLA down, due to max pain of 180 and a YUGE number of expiring options this Friday. The missing ingredient on Thursday was signs of covering for shorting on Thursday's closing cross. Alas, on Friday we once again saw significant evidence of market maker manipulations toward their 180 goal and a close just 13 cents away. TSLA dove after 10am to below 180, recovered to near 180 after noon, gyrated near 180 and pretty much flatlined in the final hour at 180. As for covering the shorting needed to push TSLA down on Thursday and Friday, nearly 11.2 million shares traded hands during Friday's 4pm closing cross minute as the MMs potentially covered both the Thursday and Friday shorting then and there. Friday's dip of TSLA was 3X the Nasdaq's dip.

Such manipulations are possible because there's economic uncertainty in the air with all the bank issues of the week. On the positive side, many Fed watchers believe that the bank issues will persuade the Fed to pivot sooner than it would otherwise. Add the recent PPI inflation report, which was very cool and is a forward indicator of what's coming next for consumer prices, and you have a nice setup for a less hawkish stance by Darth Powell and company. There's no guarantees with Powell and company, so don't bet the farm, but there's a chance we could see some uncharacteristic restraint come the March 22 FOMC press conference (on Wednesday).

The other positive development is that Tesla deliveries are coming in strong as Q1 enters its final two weeks. Remember that Roland Pircher chart I posted on Monday showing 4 weeks of increasing registrations in China? Since then, China has no longer been considered a laggard for Tesla deliveries. That leave Europe, but check out the chart below for those countries reporting daily, and the pace looks good.

In addition, we just learned that Norway just had its best delivery week ever. If the positive numbers continue, don't be surprised to see TSLA trending up as month end approaches. OTOH, there's much analyst worry about margins in Q1, stemming from the recent Tesla price cuts. A good Production & Delivery Report doesn't necessarily translate into a good Q1 profit picture as far as Wall Street is concerned, and so Tesla is going to have to show decent (above 20%) gross automotive margins in Q1 to squelch the fears. Decent margins in Q1 could set the stage for a Tesla recovery.

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds fell all the way down to 3.42% to close the week

Keeping TSLA from running much above 180 on options expiration day Friday required lots of work by the market makers, and we saw 55% of TSLA selling tagged to shorts

Max pain spent the whole week parked at 180. A big change in stock price could have changed the max pain number, but market makers didn't want that to happen, and it didn't. Notice how close calls and puts were to each other at 180 strike. The market makers wanted TSLA within a gnat's ass of 180 and missed by a mere 13 cents.

Friday's options volumes

Of the four weeks highlighted in this chart, max pain and stock price finished very close in three out of the four. Coincidence? Not a chance when that "coincidence" happens so regularly. Chart courtesy of @JimS

For this coming Friday, Mar 24, max pain rises to 182.50. The number of expiring options is far lower than last week, and so the market makers will not be as determined to hit max pain on the dot. Notice that 200 is the strike price once again with the tall call wall.

This week's recovery stalled near 180 because big money wanted a close very near 180 on Friday. They got it.

For the week, TSLA closed at 180.13 up 6.69 from the previous Friday's 173.44. Hoping you enjoyed your weekend with those you love and are ready for another exciting week ahead of TSLA price movements, pirate attacks, and rare moments of calm.

Conditions:
* Dow down 385 ( 1.19%)
* NASDAQ down 87 (0.74%)
* SPY down 5 (1.17%)
* TSLA 180.13, down 4.00 (2.17%)
* TSLA volume 133.2M shares
* Oil 66.74
* IV 62.3, 45%
* Max Pain 180 for mar17, 182.5 for mar24
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 55%

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Monday presented us with a puzzle: the Dow closed up 1.2%, NASDAQ up only 0.39%, but TSLA rose 1.73%, more than 4X the NASDAQ's rise. My best guess is twofold: TSLA was artificially pushed down on Thursday and Friday so the pirates could collect their gold and so part of the Monday rise was undoing some of last week's mischief. The other reason I suspect that TSLA beat the NASDAQ handily was that more investors are figuring out that Q1 is looking better than expected (see Pircher Tweet below).

As a general rule, the market makers do best when a TSLA rise occurs toward the beginning of the week. Max pain adjusts as put and call buyers adjust their strategies to the new price. As max pain climbs, the market makers find a new, more achievable target to shoot for by week's end, and often a Monday or Tuesday rise results in no substantial profitability reduction for the MMs by week's end. Instead, some of the upward pressure is reduced safely. That is why we see the MMs so intent to hold the stock price down at the end of big options expiration weeks (such as last week). Nonetheless, someone really didn't want TSLA rising on Monday, far in excess of what the NASDAQ was doing. Percent of selling tagged to shorts rose all the way up to 63%.

Well, so much for "the demand problem" in China. Weekly insurance registrations came in at 18,712, giving Tesla the fifth week in a row on increasing registrations. If this pace keeps up, Tesla would set a new quarterly record in China during Q1. Roland Pircher included an additional Tweet with charts that gives more details on China deliveries this quarter.

News:
* Moody's finally was shamed into giving Tesla investment grade rating of Baa3. Bless their stingy, biased, and irrelevant little hearts. The news had about zero effect upon the stock price in after hours trading. Still, the move does enable some funds to acquire TSLA now (some are restricted to buying companies with investment grade ratings only).

Percent of selling tagged to shorts shot up to 63% on Monday

We saw yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds run higher in the final minutes of Monday's trading but still remained below 3.5%

Max pain was 182.50 Monday morning. What has changed since Friday morning is the tall call wall at 190, which is now even taller than the one at 200.

Monday's options volumes

Look how level the TSLA stock price has been for the past 5 sessions as TSLA alternates between up and down days.

Conditions:
* Dow up 383 (1.20%)
* NASDAQ up 45 (0.39%)
* SPY up 4 (0.96%)
* TSLA 183.25, up 3.12 (1.73%)
* TSLA volume 128.6M shares
* Oil 67.15
* IV 61.4, 40%
* Max Pain 182.50
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 63%

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Anyone for a 7.8% TSLA climb on Tuesday? Yep, count me in too! The climb was enhanced by good macros being kind to growth stocks (Nasdaq up 1.58%, ARKK up 5.5%). The big question is how much of the climb was due to Tesla's upgrade by Moody's and how much was due to this week's excellent China insurance numbers? I'm going to suggest that the Moody's upgrade allowed funds that had been locked out from investing in TSLA to finally get in and we felt a surge from new big buyers. I'm not poopooing the China numbers, they're fantastic, but we had four nice weekly increases in a row last week and not much price action followed, so why would the fifth week be so much different? Naturally, the answer is a combination of all the above factors, but I suggest that Moody's upgrade was the biggest factor. Moody's might be irrelevant for determining the risk in bonds sold by a company, but it's still (unfortunately) relevant when it comes to giving ratings that for years have prevented certain funds from investing in Tesla.

Did the market makers appreciate this surge in TSLA to nearly 200 when the max pain was advertised as 182.50 Tuesday morning? They were not at all happy, I can tell you. Percent of selling by shorts jumped up to 65% Tuesday, indicating LOTS of manipulations. In particular, check out the final hour of market trading. TSLA was being capped during this time to keep some wiggle room between its price and 200, but QQQ showed a strong increase for most of the final half hour. Nearly 3 million shares changed hands during the 4pm closing cross minute.

Wednesday the FOMC meeting concludes and the Fed issues its statement about this month's interest rate changes. Here's hoping the cool PPI numbers and turmoil in the banking industry will cause Powell to turn more dovish. Fingers crossed.

Even while Tesla appears ready to beat expectations for Q1 production and deliveries, shorts continue to increase short interest in TSLA

News:
* Teslarati reports on hundreds of Teslas arriving in Portugal

Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts rose all the way to 65% on Tuesday. Someone really doesn't want TSLA getting this frisky right now.

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds closed around 3.6% on Tuesday, reflecting moves by bond traders as the FOMC meeting is about to conclude

Max pain Tuesday morning was 182.50. It will be higher Wednesday morning. Calls at 200-strike grew tremendously and are now the 1000 lb gorilla in the room. Why did TSLA hesitate below 200 while QQQ continued higher. That 200 call wall was the incentive that led the MMs to cap like crazy.

Tuesday's options volumes

Nice. TSLA opened near the middle bollinger band and only went up from there. That rare horizontal trading of TSLA near 180 resolved in a positive direction.

Conditions:
* Dow up 316 (0.98%)
* NASDAQ up 185 (1.58%)
* SPY up 5 (1.31%)
* TSLA 197.58, up 14.33 (7.82%)
* TSLA volume 152.0M shares
* Oil 69.33
* IV 62.7, 46%
* Max Pain 182.50
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 65%

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Both TSLA and QQQ initially responded favorably to the FOMC announcement Wednesday afternoon of a quarter percent fed rate hike and expectations that bank tightening of lending will do enough to slow inflation that the fed need not raise rates quite as high as previously advertised. As the news conference progressed, Powell showed how adamant he was to achieve his beloved 2% inflation rate while mostly dismissing concerns of the banking system. His hawkish tone caused a few investors to start pushing the selling button, which was a perfect opportunity for the market makers to turn on the TSLA sledge-o-matic and place the stock price precisely where they wanted, which was about a dollar above max pain.

Meanwhile, Troy has concluded what we've been talking about for about a week: Europe is joining China in showing its strength as the quarter's end draws near. Troy has quite a few followers and his comment might affect TSLA price on Thursday.

The net result of TSLA showing strength in China and Europe this week is that there's upward pressure on the stock price ready to assert itself. Futures are up late Wednesday night, which bodes well for TSLA recovering money that was picked from its pocket Wednesday afternoon.

As I wind down the post here in Hawaii, the pre-market numbers have built upon after hours gains and are suggesting a strong start on Thursday.

Percent of selling tagged to shorts rose to the stratosphere on Wednesday, 67%, suggesting lots and lots of manipulations

As Powell spoke, yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds fell to close about 3.43%.

Max pain began the week at 182.50, and jumped up to 190 on Wednesday morning. Since puts dominate the 190 strike, market makers kept TSLA slightly above 190. Fortunately the rise in max pain on Monday and Tuesday has defined a higher max pain for Wednesday. This is the proverbial TSLA runs higher early in the week and the market makers adjust to max pain in the later half of the week.

Wednesday's options volumes

TSLA ran nearly $20 higher on Monday and Tuesday but gave up about a third of those gains during the Darth Powell show this afternoon.

Conditions:
* Dow down 530 (1.63%)
* NASDAQ down 190 (1.60%)
* SPY down 7 (1.70%)
* TSLA 191.15, down 6.43 (3.25%)
* TSLA volume 148.8M shares
* Oil 70.39
* IV 64.6, 52%
* Max Pain 190
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 67%

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

The classic TSLA rising in the beginning of the week and then being pummeled by market makers in the second half of the week, remains on course for a truly exceptional example of market maker interventions. Basically, Tesla was on track for a 20 point gain from 180 to 200 by the end of Tuesday, but the ability of the manipulators to routinely use inappropriately-small macro dips as an excuse to position TSLA exactly where they want it is eye opening. With a max pain of 190, we're more likely to get a 10 point rise this week than the original 20. Oh well, there's always next week.

Percent of selling by shorts continued to be very high, at 64% Thursday, as shorting appeared to be used to erode TSLA's gains on Thursday. We saw more than 1.5 million shares trade in the 4pm closing cross minute.

Tesla-related news continues to be focused on the long run, and continues to be very positive. In his daily video blog, Rob Maurer talks about the deep losses Ford is experiencing with EVs. EBIT is getting worse, not better, with Ford's EV efforts and was negative by more than 40% this past year. When you consider the deep losses by upstart EV makers such as Lucid and Rivian, Tesla is in a class by itself to profit most from the upcoming transition to EVs.

The next inflation indicator, PCE, will be released March 31.

Percent of selling by shorts remained very high on Thursday, 64%, suggesting lots of manipulations

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds closed lower, at 3.44%.

Max pain was again 190 Thursday morning. Notice that 190 is still dominated by puts, which is why the market makers allowed TSLA to close above 190. Notice how many of the "odd" strikes such as 192.50 and 197.50 exist this week. I'm guessing the buyers didn't want market makers targeting their strike and so they picked lesser used strikes. Unfortunately for them, the idea caught on and now 192.50 is vulnerable.

Thursday's options volumes

Is that an inverse head and shoulders forming in the handle of the cup and handle? Recent price action is enough to make a technical trader crosseyed.

Conditions:
* Dow up 75 (0.23%)
* NASDAQ up 117 (1.01%)
* SPY up 1 (0.27%)
* TSLA 192.22, up 1.07 (0.56%)
* TSLA volume 144.2M shares
* Oil 69.93
* IV 67.4, 62%
* Max Pain 190
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 64%

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

As the week was winding down I predicted a $10 rise in TSLA for the week ($20 potential from Monday and Tuesday minus $10 as market makers tweaked the trading to place TSLA just a bit above max pain of $190). Looks like TSLA's gain this week was $10.28. I'll try to tighten up my prediction for the coming week. /s Actually, market makers can run the same pattern only so many times in a row. After that, traders catch on and play the pattern, which causes the MMs to change the pattern. A few reasons why MMs have been so successful steering TSLA's price lately are:
1) TSLA volumes are down (a "mere" 116M on Friday), making manipulations easier
2) times are uncertain (fear of Darth Powell, fear of more banking failures, etc.) and macro uncertainty makes the manipulations more believable
3) MMs have historically done more downward manipulations at week's end than upward manipulations, and TSLA has been climbing lately (thus the need for the sledge-o-matic instead of the helium balloon to reach max pain)

Looking at the TSLA chart above, you can see that in the final hour when QQQ was rising substantially, the MMs had turned on the capping machine and TSLA ignored the macro rise. With 62% of TSLA selling tagged to shorts on Friday, you better believe the MMs were capping the sugar out of TSLA heading into the 4pm close.

If macros smile, TSLA has a fair opportunity to get close enough to kiss 200 this coming week. Tesla's apparent production and deliveries continue to impress as we enter the final week of Q1. China deliveries have been improving for the past 5 weeks and in Europe, Norway has just set delivery records. Meanwhile, GigaBerlin announced production of 5,000 Model Ys/wk. That increase is a surprise to retail and institutional investors alike. Moreover, good Tesla news recently has been focused on the long term, but this production increase affects analyst expectations for Q2 (and a little for Q1), so we may actually see a positive TSLA price response this week.

Friday is doubly important this week. Not only is it likely the final trading day before the 1Q23 Production and Delivery Report is released, but we will see the results of the PCE inflation numbers Friday morning. Depending upon whether the numbers are warm or cool, we could see the macros affecting Friday trading.

News:
* The U.S. Treasury Dept. will release the rules for battery sourcing in the coming week. This could be a momentary negative for Tesla as the standard range Model 3 batteries do not come from a compliant country. I'm confident that Tesla has already figured out their response.
* Tesmanian says that GigaBerlin has announced the launch of its battery factory

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds continued to fall on Friday, ending at 3.37%

Were the market makers manipulating TSLA on Friday? Percent of selling tagged to shorts was 62%, strongly suggesting the answer is YES.

Max pain Friday morning was 190 with puts pretty significantly outnumbering calls. OTOH, calls outnumbered puts at 192.50 strike and above, and so the market makers found a closing price slightly above 190 to put the put buyers out of business, to minimize gains (a mere 41 cents) for 190 strike call buyers, and to keep the 192.50 calls out the money. Just another coincidence, right? /s

Friday's options volumes

The weekly max pain chart does a great job showing that market makers pretty much nailed the max pain number four out of the past five weeks. Over time, I've observed that MMs are much more likely to push TSLA down a bit than push it up a bit to hit max pain on Fridays. Chart by @JimS

For this coming Friday, max pain is again at 190. Puts and calls are evenly matched at 190 and puts are in the majority at 195, As typical, at 200 strike calls rule overwhelmingly. Expect 200 to be the desired max for TSLA if market makers remain in control of the stock price.

You see two step raises for TSLA as the stock ran higher and then market makers turned on the sledge-o-matic to keep the price near max pain for the Friday close. The pattern could possibly repeat this coming week. Notice the declining volumes since early February.

For the week, TSLA closed at 190.41, up 10.28 from last Friday's 190.13. Hoping your weekend was a good one! Looking forward to the week ahead.

Conditions:
* Dow up 132 (0.41%)
* NASDAQ up 37 (0.31%)
* SPY up 3 (0.66%)
* TSLA 190.41, down 1.81 (0.94%)
* TSLA volume 116.5M shares
* Oil 69.32
* IV 67.7, 63%
* Max Pain 190 for both 3/17 and 3/24
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 62%

 

[Papafox]

Correction for final paragraph above . It should read:
"up 10.28 from last Friday's 180.13"

Thanks @FireMedic for the PM

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

TSLA started off gangbusters Monday morning, which is pretty common for Monday mornings but more so perhaps because of word this weekend that GigaBerlin had hit 5K MYs/wk production numbers. Unfortunately for us TSLA longs, the macros started fading by 11am and TSLA ran down with them in a disproportionate manner. TSLA losing $7 by 1pm was over a 3.5% dip while QQQ lost about 1.4% during that time. Percent of TSLA selling by shorts was a staggering 67% on Monday, with about 1.4M shares trading during the 4pm closing cross. In a nutshell: market makers were shorting the sugar out of TSLA on Monday. The good news is that TSLA outperformed the NASDAQ by more than 1% anyway.

I suspect the market makers had two reasons for their heavy-handed efforts. First, max pain dropped to 187.50 after call options at 190 strike greatly exceeded puts. Secondly, if you look at the bottom chart in the max pain area below, you'll see that the Friday after the Production and Deliveries Report gets released has plenty of calls already at 200 and an even higher number at 210. MMs may be doing some proactive manipulations this week to minimize the potential damage next week if production and delivery numbers noticeably beat analyst expectations.

For Tuesday, much depends up the China insurance registration numbers for the week, which should become available well before market open. Last Tuesday's big run higher was at least partially the result of good China numbers. Fingers crossed for a repeat. To refresh you memory, here's LAST WEEK's Roland Pircher chart showing 5 consecutive weekly increases in China insurance registrations.

Percent of selling by shorts was 67% on Monday, suggesting heavy manipulations. I suspect both the morning capping to keep TSLA away from 200 and the pushdown to the red/green line took the majority of the shorting effort.

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds rose to 3.5% on Monday

Max pain dipped down to 187.50 Monday morning. The reason for the dip? Check out the 190-strike puts and calls. Calls grew substantially higher than the puts, which meant the market makers wanted TSLA to close below 190.

Monday's options volumes

Let's take a look at next week's open interest in options. As you can see, the bulls are anticipating the possibility of a positive surprise with the Production and Delivery Report, and although there are lots of calls at 200, the 210 strike is where the big call wall resides. For this reason, market makers will likely be giving TSLA some downward pressure this week to keep it from getting too close to 200 and then running from there next Monday if the P&D report is good.

Looks like the 190-199 plateau is where TSLA is parked until a macro move or Tesla news shakes up the game. Low China numbers Monday night could cause a drop and high China numbers could threaten 200 if macros aren't bad.

Conditions:
* Dow up 195 (0.60%)
* NASDAQ down 55 (0.47%)
* SPY up 1 (0.19%)
* TSLA 191.81, up 1.40 (0.74%)
* TSLA volume 120.9M shares
* Oil 72.70
* IV 65.3, 53%
* Max Pain 187.50
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 67%