Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Tuesday was a day of relative strength for TSLA. Between market open and 11am you can see it climbing to reach the green while QQQ was in descent or level-off mode. When QQQ's descent began again after 11am, TSLA resisted following for much of the day. NASDAQ closed down 1.98% while TSLA lost 1.16% or a .58X multiplier going down. Not bad.

Alphabet and Microsoft beat on earnings and so NASDAQ futures are way up for Wednesday. Let's see how TSLA does on a macro green day.

Tesla released its impact report here, which shows very substantial contributions to the environment. Importantly for us investors, the report shows very substantial safety of the vehicles (the highest rated), substantially better accident data when autopilot is engaged on the highway or on city streets, cost of ownership approx equal to Toyota Corolla, etc.

Just to get some perspective on how quickly Tesla Energy is growing, here's a Tweet


News:
* Inside EV says Chevrolet will discontinue to Bolt by the end of 2023

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds fell again, to less than 3.4% on Tuesday

Max pain Tuesday morning was 165. Looking at the open interest chart above, 162.50 looks to be the sweet spot between put domination and call domination.

Tuesday's options volumes

The lower bollinger band fell below the stock price on Tuesday but it still isn't much help as support. It needs to level off or climb to again be of much value to longs.

Conditions:
* Dow down 345 (1.02%)
* NASDAQ down 238 (1.98%)
* SPY down 7 (1.59%)
* TSLA 160.67, down 1.88 (1.16%)
* TSLA volume 122M shares
* Oil 77.31
* IV 49.1, 2%
* Max Pain 165
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 49%

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Yikes, NASDAQ was up 0.47% but TSLA lost 4.31% on the day. Surely, one of the catalysts for TSLA's decline was a Jefferies downgrade from buy to hold and a cut in the price target from 230 to 185. The Jefferies analyst still believes in Tesla's long-term success but was spooked by perceived lack of demand elasticity for Tesla's vehicles following substantial price cuts. Another price cut this quarter would really get the downgrades rolling, and it's entirely possible. Team "dead money" wins one today.

OTOH, those expecting a brilliant future for Tesla saw data supporting that position, as well. Both Steven Mark Ryan of Solving the Money Problem and Farzad Mesbahi produced substantial and useful video podcasts that highlight how Tesla has decimated the competition in EVs. In the case of Farzad's video, he gained access to some pretty useful auto movement at dealerships information and could show just how big a lead Tesla is gaining on the competition. GM's announced end of Bolt production highlights the widening of the gap between Tesla and its competitors.

One avenue for seeing some improvement in Tesla sales would be a halt in the continued series of Fed interest rate hikes, followed by eventual cutting of the interest rate as inflation target is met. Let me point out that West Texas crude, which had been trading over $80/barrel recently shows $74.61 in Wednesday's conditions report. Nice. The PCE Inflation report is due this Friday and could reinforce the cool CPI and PPI reports seen this month. Fingers crossed. Elon Musk Tweeted that the problem is the Fed is making decisions from data that has too much latency, and I find the analogy quite fitting (especially for shelter computations).

Only 52% of TSLA selling was tagged to shorts on Wednesday, suggesting Wednesday's dip was more market-driven than manipulation driven.

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds closed at 3.43% on Wednesday

Percent of selling tagged to shorts remained moderately low at 52% on Wednesday

Max pain on Wednesday was 165. Large put walls are located at 150 and 160 strike and the 155 strike was active with put activity on Wednesday.

Wednesday's options volumes

Conditions:
* Dow down 229 (0.68%)
* NASDAQ up 56 (0.47%)
* SPY down 2 (0.42%)
* TSLA 153.75, down 6.92 (4.31%)
* TSLA volume 153.4M shares
* Oil 74.61
* IV 51.4, 7%
* Max Pain 165
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 52%

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

What the market took on Wednesday it returned on Thursday. TSLA closed above 160 once again as the Dow and NASDAQ rallied on positive earnings news. It's a win for Team Brilliant Future, as Tesla is a tech company and tech has been doing well in Q1 earnings reports.

You can see an apparent disparity between percent of selling tagged to shorts (a mere 47% on Thursday) vs. likely capping at 160 by the market makers, who wish to keep 160 calls from running too far into the money this week. Notice how TSLA pretty much got the whack-a-mole treatment any time it rose above 160, while QQQ kept on rising. I'd say the tie-breaker would be a hefty 4.7 million shares traded during the closing cross at 4pm. My guess is that market makers were either naked shorting or borrowing from non-FINRA dark pools but wanted to cover their day-shorting as market trading concluded.

Look for two forces at work on Friday: the results of the PCE inflation numbers before market open and the desire of the market makers to keep TSLA below 160 (but above 155) come market close. This PCE report is particularly important because of the FOMC meeting next week

Overall, the TSLA price right now depends mostly on perceptions of how well the recent price cuts are causing demand to at least equal supply of Tesla vehicles. Additional price cuts are bearish, price increases are bullish. Selling lots of cars without raising or lowering prices would be seen as bullish, too. Inventory numbers might show a trend, but an increase or decrease of a couple hundred vehicles in inventory is simply too little data to make a judgement.

This TMC post by @InDaClub was one of the day's most interesting because it emphasizes that a possible Korea Gigafactory would be a way to produced Gen 3 vehicles for export to India without the horrendous tarrifs.

Also, @ZeApelido 's post regarding Google searches for Tesla models is worth a good look, as well.

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds climbed to 3.52% on Thursday

Max pain Thursday morning was 160, which is the first of three tall call walls (others are 165 and 170). Strike 157.50 was neutral, so the assumption would be that market makers want a close somewhere between 157.50 and 160 (but not a penny higher) on Friday. We'll get a better idea where the MMs want to steer the stock price with Friday morning's open interest chart.

Thursday's options volumes

Thursday's strong TSLA performance places it's price comfortably above the lower bollinger band and some stability may give the lower bb a chance to flatten out and provide some support.

Conditions:
* Dow up 524 (1.57%)
* NASDAQ up 288 (2.43%)
* SPY up 8 (1.99%)
* TSLA 160.19, up 6.44 (4.19%)
* TSLA volume 127M shares
* Oil 75.08
* IV 48.3, 2%
* Max Pain 160
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 46%

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Friday began with the PCE Inflation report before market open. As we've discussed previously, PCI, PPI, and PCE should be showing nice year over year decreases as we progress toward the June/July 2022 peak of inflation. As such, there should be no big surprises that in the March month, PCE dropped from 5.1 to 4.2. PCE showed improvement month over month, as well. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, dropped from 4.7 to 4.6. The reason that core drop is so minimal is that housing has a huge lag and its value can be going up when rents for months have been actually coming down. This is why Elon rolls his eyes at the Fed and says their data has too much latency.

Looking at the day's trading, the open interest chart for Friday morning revealed that 160 strike had gone close to neutral on calls vs. puts, but 165 was a pretty big call wall, and so the market makers wanted to keep TSLA below 165 for the day. The close of 164.31 reflects their wishes. You can see the typical whack-the-mole game being played any time TSLA dared to approach 165. Percent of selling by shorts was medium to low on Friday but that is deceptive when you have market makers naked shorting and then covering at day's end (Naked shorting doesn't show up on the FINRA percent of selling by shorts chart). We saw a robust 7.1 million shares trade hands during the 4pm closing cross, which was of course the opportunity for the MMs to neutralize the shorting they had done during the day.

When the market opened, it actually went into the red and TSLA experienced a noteworthy Mandatory Morning Dip before recovering. By market close, NASDAQ was up 0.69% while TSLA was up 2.57%, a multiplier of 3.7X. I think about 1.4% of TSLA's rise was to the NASDAQ's gains after the PCE numbers, and we owe the rest to FOMO, since this was TSLA's second strong day in a row.

Let's keep an eye on analyst projections of deliveries for Q2 and see if Tesla is looking to meet them. Troy's numbers always start low and get closer at quarter's end, so it's too soon yet to fret over low Troy numbers. The upturn in Google searches for various Tesla models is encouraging but certainly not proof of a buying uptrend. The decrease in Model Y inventories is encouraging, Model 3 not so much. It's still too early to tell if the "dead money" crowd or the "Tesla fabulous future" crowd is going to prevail this quarter.

So, we want to follow deliveries, sniff for coming price cuts (if any), watch for nice improvements in full self driving (Elon says 11.4.1 is very good), and monitor factors affecting costs and credits for vehicles. Continued strong growth of Tesla Energy is becoming a factor, too.

For the coming week, Wednesday, May 3, is the day the Fed announces its latest interest rate plans. Last I heard, about 80% expect a quarter percent raise, so that move would not be too worrisome for the market. OTOH, what matters is guidance going forward and the market will be unhappy if the Fed doesn't show some dovish posturing for the future. It's all about the guidance this time around.

News:
* This Twitter user compiled videos of automatic braking behavior for a wide range of vehicles and Tesla Model Y shines in comparison. Worth checking out.
* This Tweet from Tesla shows just how much of an efficiency advantage Tesla has over its competitors. Part is aerodynamics, part is powertrain and motors. The competitors need to make up the difference by adding more battery cells, which cost them more on a KWh basis than it does Tesla. Huge advantage for Tesla.

Percent of selling tagged to shorts was 53% on Friday

Max pain Friday morning was 160, which was pretty neutral, but the market makers really wanted to avoid a climb above 165 and especially 170.

Friday's options volumes

Since Friday was a strong up day for TSLA, I assume the effective max pain increased somewhat from 160. We know that the MMs didn't want TSLA closing above 165, and so the closing price of 164.31 was about as close to perfect as they desired for this week. Funny how it usually works that way. Chart courtesy of @JimS

For this coming Friday, May 5, max pain is 162.50, which is in the slightly-call-dominated area, which begins at 160 strike. Strikes 165 and 170 are call walls, but a move higher early in the week would rejigger the calls and puts and allow the market makers to tweak on Thursday and Friday. OTOH, if the market pushes TSLA down on Monday then the put wall at 155 is a point that MMs would prefer not to visit.

Notice how much wider the lower BB is in comparison with the upper BB. This is because the market is expecting TSLA to be volatile. IV is 44.9, 0%.

For the week, TSLA closed at 164.31, down 77 cents from the previous Friday's 165.08. Hoping you all rested and enjoyed your weekends with those you love.

Conditions:
* Dow up 272 (0.80%)
* NASDAQ up 84 (0.69%)
* SPY up 4 (0.85%)
* TSLA 164.31, up 4.12 (2.57%)
* TSLA volume 122.5M shares
* Oil 76.78
* IV 44.9, 0%
* Max Pain 160 for 4/28, 162.50 for 5/5
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 53%, closing cross volume: 7.1M shares

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Ho hum, another trading day as the market awaits Wednesday's rate info and discussion by the Fed. NASDAQ closed down 0.11% while TSLA lost 1.51%. The day's closing price puts TSLA just 67 cents below this week's max pain number. Hmm.

Biggest Tesla news for Monday is a $250 price increase on Model Y and Model 3, according to Reuters. Personally, I don't see evidence of too many orders and too long a wait to take delivery. Instead, I think Tesla is just sending a message, "don't just wait for the next price cut, the price might be going up instead." Such a signal might be particularly important in China, where buyers in the past gamed the end of quarter price cut routine and tend to be very ready to anticipate the next price move. This increase throws a question mark into the calculations, which is good for Tesla.

Wondering if the market will react positively on Tuesday to the small hike.

Of all the TMC Investor discussions on Monday, I thought three posts by @unk45 , beginning with this one, looking at how GE financed refrigerators and how Tesla could use a similar approach in lean times, were stimulating. Check them out.

News:
* Alex Potter of Piper Sandler reduced his TSLA price target from 300 to 280, citing margin pressure

In preparation for Wednesday's FOMC meeting results, yields of 10 yr. treasury bonds have increased to 3.58%

Max pain Monday morning was 162.50. Looking at the chart above, 160 and above strikes are call-dominated.

Monday's options volumes

Looking at the tech chart, you can see that since the Q1 earnings report, TSLA has been trading in the low 160s, with the exception of the dip on Wednesday of last week and the resulting pop on Thursday.

Conditions:
* Dow down 46 (0.14%)
* NASDAQ down 14 (0.11%)
* SPY down 0 (0.10%)
* TSLA 161.83, down 2.48 (1.51%)
* TSLA volume 108.1M shares
* Oil 75.63
* IV 45.5, 0%
* Max Pain 162.50
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 53%, 3M shares traded in 4pm closing cross

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Comparing the TSLA chart to the QQQ chart, it was apparent at market open that TSLA was considerably stronger than the macros. I suspect the price increase for Models 3 and Y was the reason. Nonetheless, that magic wore thin as the day progressed but at least TSLA did better than the NASDAQ at its 0.94% loss vs. the NASDAQ's dip of 1.08%.

Overall, the market is spooked about the FOMC meeting decision and press conference on Wednesday during market hours. It looks like the market is 85% sure that Darth Powell and his obedient followers will raise the fed raise by another quarter percent. That won't sink the market (since it is expected) but the market wants to hear that Powell and gang are hinting these rate increases are over or maybe a max of just one more needed. If Powell does his usual "there's much work still do to here, etc., etc., etc., then Mr. Market is going to be extremely unhappy. The reason for that concern is that more regional banks are on the brink of failing or being taken over, new jobs numbers are falling fast, and there's fears that staying on the present course will spark an unexpected series of events that cannot quickly be fixed by the Fed tweaking a few economic dials. This is at a time when inflation has been falling into line. Remember that it can take over half a year for interest rate changes to show their full effect. Fingers crossed.

Here's a chart from www.truflation.com showing a reasonable assessment of housing costs. Housing is one of those laggy indicators in the Fed's data that keeps the inflation numbers artificially high because sometimes they're six months behind. Sheesh.

Look at the bottom (purple) chart for rented dwellings.

The positive of Tuesday was that Tesla is showing signs that they are going to move a serious number of vehicles in Q2.
* On Twitter, Berlinergy says that in a recent gathering of Tesla managers in Europe, hyper growth was the theme
* TeslaBoomerMama found a Tweet that shows 10 yr. and 4% financing being offered in Spain on Teslas. The creative solutions to selling more vehicles are beginning.
* Roland Pircher Tweeted the chart below that shows European deliveries off to a great start in Q2

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds dipped to 3.42% as jobs numbers came in weak

Max pain Tuesday morning was 162.50, which is at that low neutral place between the high 157.50 put wall and the high 165 call wall. Market makers are quite happy with TSLA remaining where it is at present. They may not be successful this week with encouraging Tesla news and a Fed announcement during market hours on Wednesday.

Tuesday's options volumes

Nice to see the lower bollinger band leveling off for a change.

Conditions:
* Dow down 367 (1.08%)
* NASDAQ down 132 (1.08%)
* SPY down 5 (1.12%)
* TSLA 160.31, down 1.52 (0.94%)
* TSLA volume 127.2M shares
* Oil 71.63
* IV 48.6, 3%
* Max Pain 162.50
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 54%. 3.1M shares trading in 4pm closing cross

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Once again TSLA showed strength compared to the broader markets. The stock flirted with 165 numerous times but as you can see from the open interest chart below, the market makers didn't want TSLA to rise above 165. Much of the strength of TSLA is focused on indications that buyers are responding positively to TSLA's recent small price increase in 3 and Y.

This Tweet by Matt Pocius shows that not only 3 and Y but also S and X have been trending downward in inventory after the 3 and Y small price increase. Particularly heartening is that Tesla's biggest seller, Model Y, is showing the smallest inventory of all, suggesting demand is adequate at this time. Adequate demand is confronting the Wall Street question, "Why isn't there more price elasticity after the big Tesla price cuts?" The answer may be that many consumers were waiting for the next cut and then the next. A small increase caused some consumers to pull the trigger and take advantage of the current great prices for these vehicles before another price increase appeared.

Another possible catalyst has been the re-introduction of Model 3 LR. The Model Y LR is the most popular configuration of the Ys, and Model 3 LR could give Model 3 orders a shot in the arm. Since these vehicles aren't available until June and the range is still an estimate (suggesting EPA hasn't tested this model yet) we're curious to see what changes have been made (and if this is the new Highlander).

In the afternoon, the Fed released it's decision to raise fed rates by 0.25%, as expected, and the market was okay with that move because it was widely expected. The market showed some satisfaction with the notes released with the rate hike, including less hawkish language and the elimination of the phrase "Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate". Nonetheless, as Powell answered questions, he received more than previous levels of scrutiny from the press, and so he transformed back into Darth Powell and put enough negative spin in there to sink the markets by market close. At least we see more likelihood on a pause starting with the next meeting. By then the data should back up a pause. If you haven't been watching oil, West Texas crude rose to over $80 a barrel after an OPEC cut, but in recent days these barrels are selling for less than $70. That's important not just for the energy segment of inflation but for all sectors of inflation since they are affected by oil prices (take transportation as a prime example), and virtually any product must be trucked or shipped to market.

I have done some TSLA buying the last couple of days including Wednesday.

News:
* The Boring Company is expanding its Vegas Loop to 65 miles and 69 stations. This move is important both for giving many people their first ride in a Tesla and for also eventually showcasing Full Self Driving. Anyone want to guess whether the Vegas Loop will be the first driverless use of FSD by Tesla?

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds dipped to 3.35% on Wednesday. Notice the dip in late afternoon after Powell's talk

Max pain on Wednesday morning was 162.50 yet again. Strike 155 is a put wall, 165 is call dominated, and 170 is a tall call wall. If TSLA climbs above 165 on Thursday or Friday the MMs will try to at least keep it below 170

Wednesday's options volumes

Again, with the exception of two days last week, TSLA has traded in a very narrow range within the low 160s since the Q1 ER. That may change soon.

Conditions:
* Dow down 270 (0.80%)
* NASDAQ down 55 (0.46%)
* SPY down 3 (0.69%)
* TSLA 160.61, up 0.30 (0.19%)
* TSLA volume 119.7M shares
* Oil 68.96
* IV 49.7, 4%
* Max Pain 162.50
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 49%
* Volume at 4pm closing cross: 2.7M

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Thursday was a red day for the macros as the Darth Powell effect dragged the broader markets down. TSLA, OTOH, was green for most the day. When you compare NASDAQ's loss of 0.49% to TSLA's gain of 0.37%, TSLA was clearly outperforming the macros. What's interesting is the relative shift in value from beginning of trading to end of trading for both TSLA and QQQ. TSLA clearly lost value as the day progressed but QQQ gained value from the 10:30ish dip to end of trading. Was their evidence of foul play with TSLA? Glad you asked, the answer is YES. Notice that percent of selling by shorts jumped all the way to 65% on Thursday, while volume was a low 94M shares. It was a perfect opportunity for arranging a gentle descent of TSLA throughout the day and then cover most of the day-shorting in the 2.9 million shares trading hands in the 4pm closing cross.

Notice that QQQ and TSLA both climbed after hours. Apple beat on their quarter's ER, and the rising tide is lifting all ships. I'm expecting a positive day on Friday for NASDAQ and TSLA but with the market makers ready to invoke the dreaded whack-a-mole if cute little TSLA dares stick its head up too close to 165.

Thanks to TMC member @hobbes for posting this graph of European deliveries here with commentary in the main investor's forum

European deliveries are off to a great start in 2023

Percent of selling by shorts jumped to 65% on Thursday, perhaps suggesting that the market makers have started their end of week effort to persuade TSLA to remain below 165 come Friday close.

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds closed at 3.37% on Thursday

Max pain is glued to 162.50 again. Strike 160 is a tall put wall, 165 is a mid-height call wall, and 170 is Mt. Everest high call wall.

Thursday's options volumes

Once again the stock price is stuck in the low 160s as market makers attempt to maximize their profits with this week's expiring options.

Conditions:
* Dow down 287 (0.86%)
* NASDAQ down 59 (0.49%)
* SPY down 3 (0.71%)
* TSLA 161.20, up 0.59 (0.37%)
* TSLA volume 94.3M shares
* Oil 69.21
* IV 49.3, 4%
* Max Pain 162.50
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 65%
* Volume at 4pm closing cross: 2.9M

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

We've been seeing upward pressure on TSLA for much of this week and downward pressure on macros. That situation changed when Apple beat Thursday afternoon on their ER and the macros entered rally mode Friday morning. Until Friday, the market makers were successful in keeping TSLA below the somewhat call-dominated 165 and well below the Mt. Everest call wall at 170. When NASDAQ took off and climbed 2.25% for the day, the market makers were placed in a tough spot, since TSLA's 2.1X multiplier would have meant a 4.7% climb. Worse yet for the MMs, it had taken 65% TSLA selling tagged to shorts on Thursday to hold TSLA artificially low, and a big macro rise would get the FOMO juices flowing in the buyers. As you recall, the price increases that Tesla placed on its vehicles were well received by buyers, and you would assume by Wall Street, as well. Even Gary Black just started rebuying TSLA shares.

And so we saw TSLA shoot through 165 shortly after market open as if it was an F-18 fighter jet on afterburner punching through a low layer of stratus clouds. Then began the series of plateaus that (almost certainly) were orchestrated by the market makers to slow TSLA's ascent. From 9:45am until nearly 10:30am, TSLA plateaued at about 166 while QQQ and NASDAQ kept climbing. Both QQQ and TSLA plateaued together until about 1pm, until another climb began. TSLA reached 170 at about 2pm and never went much higher. In contrast, QQQ continued to climb until 3pm, a full hour's worth, before slowly descending into the close. The capping of TSLA from 2pm to 4pm was a clear effort by MMs to keep the stock from climbing above 170. Nonetheless, TSLA climbed 5.5% for the day.

Where does the stock go in the coming week? One possibility is that other investors who sold some TSLA right before or right after the ER will catch FOMO fever and the stock could run to 180 this coming week. OTOH, We've had a hint that demand is sufficient to meet production at these new prices, but the quarter is not even half over yet, so there's time for a fear of falling dip somewhere along the way. I'd say that FOMO is a stronger impulse that FOF at the moment, however, particularly when you consider the long-term potential of Tesla the company. The macros could sink again if more regional banks skate into the danger zone or if Tesla needs another price cut to match production with deliveries. Never a dull moment.

One of the coming likely catalysts for TSLA will be a continued decline in inflation and a pause soon by the Fed. We'll get another inflation reading this week on Wednesday with the CPI report and then Thursday for the PPI report.

From Apr22 to Jun22, CPI climbed 2.5% over just two months. In the next two months that climb in CPI is going to be replaced with something more akin to the pace of inflation since June, which is 301.8-296.3= 5.5/296.3=1.85%/9=0.2%/month or an annual rate of 0.2x12=2.4%. After June this 5% inflation rate will be deader than a doornail and we'll be talking about 2.4%ish inflation. Powell will pat himself on the back but in truth the majority of the improvement was just due to getting that big inflation leap through June 22 out of the statistics so that we could use some reasonable statistics going forward. Keep in mind that the 2.4% inflation number includes housing/shelter numbers that are lagging 12-18 months and that are artificially raising all the current inflation numbers.

For reference sake, here's the latest inflation estimate of 3.84% from www.truflation.com .

Q1 earnings reports have shown that many companies such as Apple are doing well and earnings are still good. The possibility of a soft landing still exists.

Further out, Tesla Full Self Driving is maturing now, and though most of us don't expect a 2023 release of a legal Level 5 product, it's possible that we could see enough progress in 2023 to get Wall Street adding value to TSLA in anticipation. I'm currently using an 11.3 FSD product, and it's a combination of wonderful improvements (ability to shift to far side of lane to avoid big trucks or pedestrians) and loss of some navigation prowess as a result of the massive changes of moving to Version 11. I'm eager to try 11.4 both for its improvements and for correcting some backwards movement. We're seeing some users say that 11.3.6 is good enough for most trips requiring no interventions. Where we need to go is for most users to say most trips require no interventions, and that leap may happen with 11.4 if you believe Elon's summary of the improvements. Fingers crossed. I'll be one of the last to get reliable no intervention driving because Hawaii has so much traffic, poor street markings, and so many corner cases. I once even had to deal with a homeless man steering a shopping card down a steep road at 25 miles per hour!

Looks like we're looking at 2025 for the Mexico gigafactory to open and for 3rd generation vehicles to start rolling out. The year 2024 should be the year of the cybertruck as production expands substantially. I'm hoping 2023 really becomes the year of 4680 cells as Tesla feels confident enough about the product and yields to greatly increase production in the U.S. Think not only IRA advantages for buyers but also Tesla receiving large federal incentives for producing these batteries in the U.S.

All in all, much is going to happen in the next two years. We still have question marks in the short term about the need for additional vehicle price cuts and their effect upon the short-term stock price. The secret for me is to set my investment horizon far enough down the road so that I can ride out any bumps.

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds rose to about 3.43% on Friday

I combine two charts above. Max pain was 162.50. Notice that 165 had plenty of calls but also plenty of puts. This strike wasn't too scary for the MMs, particularly if most all the other calls and puts expired worthless. The 170 strike was 45,000 contracts high and market makers extended much effort between Thursday and Friday to keep TSLA from exceeding 170 by any more than a few pennies.

Market makers lost control of the stock price as it approached 165, but they did what it took to pull off a 2 hour long capping exercise and keep TSLA from going much above 170.

For this coming Friday, max pain is 162.50, but the whole options scene could be rejiggered on Monday and Tuesday if TSLA continues to show strength. I wouldn't try to make predictions from this chart, but suggest giving it a few days and seeing what the market makers are likely to concentrate on.

At last TSLA broke out of the low 160s and is approaching the mid bollinger band again.

For the week, TSLA closed at 170.06, up 5.75 from the previous Friday's 164.31. It's been a good week, my friends, and more might be in store for the coming week. Hoping you all enjoyed your weekends and are prepared for another exciting week ahead.

Conditions:
* Dow up 547 (1.65%)
* NASDAQ up 269 (2.25%)
* SPY up 8 (1.85%)
* TSLA 170.06, up 8.86 (5.50%)
* TSLA volume 107.3M shares
* Oil 71.34
* IV 44.5, 0%
* Max Pain 162.50 for both 5/5 and 5/12
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 58%
* ''Volume at 4pm closing cross: 4.2M

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart abovve

QQQ chart above

Pre-market, TSLA surged above 174 as the FOMO fever continued. We often see a rousing start on Monday mornings, but you can see the walk-down that preceded market open, temporarily derailed for a few minutes just prior to open, and then a mandatory morning dip between 10:30am and 11:00am.

So, what was going on? Clearly there were buyers ready to continue Friday's TSLA FOMO buying, which would have stoked other FOMO buying. I think the market makers tried to strike early and clip TSLA's wings so that fears of TSLA running all the way to 180 vanished for at least one day. Percent of TSLA selling by shorts rose all the way to 65% on Monday, and I think much of the shorting was deployed early in the day to break the momentum.

Although TSLA responded to many of the ups and downs of the broader market (depicted by QQQ chart), you can see what we witnessed last week, which was a clear upward movement of QQQ from open to close, but actually a downward movement of TSLA from open to close. No news propelled TSLA relatively lower, and I suggest the 65% selling tagged to shorts better tells the story of TSLA's trajectory on Monday.

Alas, if CPI and PPI data on Wednesday and Thursday stoke the broader markets, MMs may have trouble holding TSLA back. It'll be fun to see if it happens.

James Stephenson has released another of his epic 69-tweet Tesla chart marathons. There's so much great information you really should take a look here.

News:
* Tesla holds groundbreaking ceremony for Texas Lithium refining operation
* Rumor- GigaTexas hits 5,000 vehicle produced in a week
* Rumor- Starting June 1, Tesla's Shanghai factory will not allow workers to bring their cell phones into the workshop, and Model 3 Highland will begin trial production.

Percent of selling tagged to shorts soared once again, this time to 65%. Shenanigans afoot? You bet!

Yields on 10 year treasury bonds closed just above 3.5% on Monday

Max pain was 165 Monday morning. Strike 165 was led by puts, but 170 strike was very solidly call-dominated. Look no further than this chart to understand why percent of selling by shorts was so high on Monday.

Monday's options volumes

TSLA climbed above the mid bollinger band on Monday, hopefully setting TSLA up for an upward twist in the BBs.

Conditions:
* Dow down 56 (0.17%)
* NASDAQ up 22 (0.18%)
* SPY up 0 (0.03%)
* TSLA 171.79, up 1.73 (1.02%)
* TSLA volume 112.2M shares
* Oil 72.58
* IV 44.6, 0%
* Max Pain 165
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 65 %
* Volume at 4pm closing cross: 2.3M

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

As we last left off, TSLA pre-market trading on Monday morning was going strong but as market open approached, the beginnings of the 65% TSLA selling tagged to shorts began to take hold and TSLA climbed a mere 1% for the day. On Tuesday, you'd think that the market makers would be hard pressed to beat their Monday shorting mark, but you'd be wrong because in order to engineer a red day for TSLA, percent of TSLA selling by shorts ran to 66%. Clearly, the market makers saw potential for a successful manipulation. Monday's TSLA volume was a mere 112M shares, and Tuesday's came in at an anemic 88M shares traded. Basically, Monday's shorting took away the strong climb momentum and Tuesday's brought the TSLA price to within $1.65 of max pain. Despite Tuesday's low volume, a hefty 2.7M shares traded in the 4pm closing cross minute, allowing substantial covering of the day's shorting activity.

Nonetheless, while market makers took over the pricing of TSLA this week (so far), good news continues to percolate as Tesla confirmed the GigaTexas 5K/wk Model Y production rate. The week is still young, and perhaps CPI and PPI results on Wednesday and Thursday before market open will be able to revive TSLA's upward movement. Not betting, but crossing fingers. Really looking forward to next month's CPI.

Percent of selling tagged to shorts rose even higher, to 66% on Tuesday. Someone really doesn't want TSLA running above 170 this week

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds remained relatively flat on Tuesday, closing around 3.52%

Max pain rose to 167.50 after Monday's strong TSLA trading. Strike 165 is somewhat put-dominated, 167.50 is relatively neutral, and 170 is just somewhat call-dominated, a big change from Monday. With 170 strike no longer looking too scary for market makers, a strong macro response during second half of this week could allow TSLA to float above 170 again. OTOH 175 is definitely out of bounds, as far as the MMs are concerned. I'd love for them to get steamrolled. You'd hear my laughter all the way from Hawaii.

Tuesday's options volumes

The market giveth, the market makers taketh away

Conditions:
* Dow down 57 (0.17%)
* NASDAQ down 77 (0.63%)
* SPY down 2 (0.44%)
* TSLA 169.15, down 2.64 (1.54%)
* TSLA volume 88.6M shares
* Oil 73.53
* IV 45.0, 1%
* Max Pain 167.50
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 66%
* Volume at 4pm closing cross: 2.7M

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Wednesday morning's TSLA trading was all about the CPI inflation report, and close was all about option sellers tweaking the stock to position it for the most profitable end of the week possible. According to CNBC, the CPI numbers rose 4.9% from a year ago, slightly beating the expected 5% rise and causing stocks to rise. FOMO fever re-erupted at TSLA and the stock price rose quickly until market makers and hedgies capped it at 174 and then helped with the pushdown. If you look at the actual Bureau of Labor Statistics Report , Shelter was the biggest factor pushing higher at a whopping 8.1% increase in 12 months. Keep in mind that in most locales shelter prices have actually been dropping, and so the Fed is using bogus numbers here.

My Mistake
I had looked at the 2.5% increase in CPI inflation between April and June of 2022 and concluded we'd see a nice drop in CPI inflation rate as April and May are dropped from consideration. My mistake was that the April to May big jump is reflected in the May report, which is reported in the month of June. In other words, the CPI inflation reports released in June and July will be the ones that benefit from this big drop. Something to look forward to.

Percent of TSLA selling by shorts remained extremely high on Wednesday, 64% to be exact, which I believe is the reason TSLA descended so quickly from its morning high and actually closed in the red. Someone is willing to short the "sugar" out of TSLA in an attempt to get a desirable Friday closing price.

Anyway, it's on to the PPI report Thursday morning.

Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts remained very high on Wednesday at 64%, suggesting substantial manipulations

Yields on 10 year treasury bonds dipped to 3.44% on Wednesday

Max pain remained at 167.50. Check out the chart where 167.50 is near neutral between puts and calls. and a slight move in either direction takes you strongly into put or call territory. Volumes are approaching 30K contracts for 175 and 180 calls. TSLA is showing FOMO behavior on opening with lots of buying, and market makers need to cut the rally off quickly to prevent the price staying high. It'll likely take a good PPI inflation report to stoke the broader markets high enough to allow TSLA to retain 175 or 180 this week.

Wednesday's options volumes

We're seeing a second horizontal trading scenario just below 170 developing, just like we just had the low 160s scenario for a two week period. It's all about maximizing option seller profits.

Conditions:
* Dow down 30 (0.09%)
* NASDAQ up 127 (1.04%)
* SPY up 2 (0.47%)
* TSLA 168.54, down 0.61 (0.36%)
* TSLA volume 119.6M shares
* Oil 73.16
* IV 44.7, 1%
* Max Pain 167.50
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 64%

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Before market open, the PPI inflation numbers came out and they were wonderfully cool. CNBC reports that the numbers showed wholesale prices rose a mere 0.2% in April. Dow Jones had been estimating 0.3%. Unfortunately, both TSLA and QQQ swam through red in early morning trading but both perked up and climbed into the green as market close approached. TSLA was trading a bit above 169 at an excellent price to maximize Market Maker profits during Friday's close.

At 3:44pm, algos started buying TSLA to the tune of 1.7M shares that minute. Then we saw 1.8M, 1.5M, 10.0M respectively for each passing minute, then a slow decline in volume as TSLA threatened to climb above 173. A skillful pushdown by the MMs going into close allowed the Market Makers to bring TSLA down nearly to 172 for the close. The cause of the rally was this Tweet from Elon, saying that he has found a CEO for Twitter and she will begin in six weeks.

Then as after-hours trading got into the final hours we saw another jump higher to about 175. The cause would be this article from Reuters (and others like it) stating that Tesla just raised vehicle prices again in the U.S. with S & X going up $1,000 and Model Y going up $250. Model 3 was unaffected. The price change for S & X is inconsequential to the big picture of Tesla, and the $250 price increase of Y in the U.S. is a very small raise. Nonetheless, the optics of the story are positive and Friday should be an interesting day. I would normally expect the MMs to succeed in stopping TSLA at 175 on a Friday, and that might happen, but here's why it might not. For the past 4 days, percent of selling by shorts has been 64% or higher. Keep in mind that 68% is as high as I can remember seeing that number. Thus, the MMs have already been using near max effort shorting to just keep TSLA below 170. Along comes cool PPI numbers, Elon feeling good enough about Twitter now to turn over the reins, and yet another price increase for Tesla vehicles. Furthermore, a lot of investors who sold in the low 180s before the Q1 ER have been watching the price and wondering if they should jump back in. A big run higher could create the FOMO needed for these investors to jump back in. Climbing begets more climbing. For this reason the MMs will have their work cut out for them Friday morning. Couldn't happen to a more-deserving band of pirates.

News:
* Full Self Driving version 11.4.1 has been released to a bunch of video bloggers. Check out youtube by searching "Tesla FSD v11.4.1"

Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts rose all the way to 67% on Wednesday, indicating super high manipulations. Keep in mind that I can't remember seeing that percent of selling over 68% in the past.

The cool PPI report led to a nice drop in 10 year treasury bond interest rates, to 3.38% on Thursday

Max pain on Thursday morning was 167.50, which once again was is the neutral sweet spot between put and call dominated strikes. The peak of the Call mountain was 175, nearly 44,000 contracts high. The market makers will aspire to hold TSLA below 175 on Friday. It may not work.

Thursday's options volumes

What the market makers picked from our pockets on Wednesday the market returned on Thursday. TSLA has settled above the mid bollinger band and is feeling upward pressure both from Elon's announcement of hiring a CEO for Twitter and also because of the after-hours announcement that the company is raising prices on Model S,X, and Y in the U.S.

Conditions:
* Dow down 211 (0.66%)
* NASDAQ up 22 (0.18%)
* SPY down 1 (0.17%)
* TSLA 172.08, up 3.54 (2.10%)
* TSLA volume 103.9M shares
* Oil 70.62
* IV 44.5, 0%
* Max Pain 167.50
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 67%
* Volume at 4pm closing cross: 3.1M

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Friday's stock action looked like it was going to be a cliff-hanger as market makers and hedgies fought to keep TSLA from closing above 175. Working in their favor was recent FUD including a MASSIVE recall of Teslas in China reported by Bloomberg (actually, it was only an over-the-air software update), and a Wall Street Journal piece of imagined mayhem suggesting Elon might be stepping down from his role at Tesla. Make no mistake, the timing of these FUD pieces was not accidental. The market makers and hedgies were calling in favors from their friends in the media, who were all to ready to assist. Working in the favor of the longs (and closing above 175) was the cool CPI and PPI numbers this week, Elon's hiring a CEO for Twitter, and a price increase on S,X, and Model Y (even though the Y increase was only $250). The market had been showing FOMO, particularly in early market trading, as TSLA threatened to continue its rise to the 180s and thereby eat up any advantage gained by selling the stock before the ER. Note: for a detailed talk about why the new Twitter CEO is likely a good pick, check out this Farzad Mesbahi youtube podcast where the panelists suggest she's neither too far right nor too far left and is talented at selling advertising. The more that Twitter can be seen as protecting free speech from either right or left ideology, the more room there is for Elon Musk to be forgiven by those potential Tesla buyers who become disenchanted with some of his remarks earlier in the Twitter drama.

Alas, we never got to see the battle play out because a consumer sentiment report was released that showed falling consumer sentiment (often seen before a recession). Bond yields increased as some money traveled from equities back into bonds and major indexes drifted lower.

It was this drifting lower of QQQ and NASDAQ that gave the option sellers their big chance. TSLA sank 5.8% from its daily high to daily low while QQQ sank only 1.3% from high to low. Act 1 was a huge pushdown accelerant from the option sellers through their unscrupulous short selling. For Act 2, QQQ recovered two-thirds of its dip into the red through a post-2pm recovery, but TSLA hardly budged higher, being capped to keep it as close to 167.50 as possible. The net result was yet another near-perfect tweaking of the stock price to maximize option seller profits for the week.

OTOH, those of us who believe in Tesla's brilliant future will benefit from checking out this excellent video podcast with Brighter with Herbert and James Douma. Douma is very knowledgeable about ai subjects, and in this podcast he really did a great job of explaining what's going on with FSD development and why Tesla is in the catbird's seat for both EVs and FSD. He talks about optimus as well. Highly recommended.

News:
* Electrek says that Tesla has relaunched the vehicle referral plan which this time includes a raffle for a cybertruck

Shorts were tagged with 65% of TSLA selling on Friday. This follows previous daily numbers this week of 65%, 66%, 64% and 67%, respectively. It was one of highest and most consistent shorting-to-manipulate weeks I have ever seen. Any questions why we ended the week so close to max pain again?

Yields on 10 year treasury bonds rose for the second day in a row to close at 3.47% on Friday. Usually, we see the yields rise when new inflation pressure appears, but Friday's rise was clearly for the second reason: fear of recession and a moving of money into bonds.

Max pain on Friday morning was 167.50, unchanged since Tuesday's max pain posting. You can see strong separation above and below 167.50, with 175 being particularly worrisome for the market makers (45K+ call contracts and few put contracts).

Friday morning's options volumes

What can I say? The stock price every Friday has come surprisingly close to the max pain number. Anyone suspect mischief afoot?

For this coming Friday, max pain is 170. Both 165 and 170 strikes are near neutral between puts and calls while 175 is call-dominated and 180 is the highest call wall. If TSLA gets frisky Monday morning it could run above 170 but stay below 175 and the market makers would probably be okay with the move if it took away some of the excess upward push on the stock. The options could reshuffle throughout the week and the MMs could still make out like bandits. Fingers crossed.

Look at how the bottom of each of the past five candles nearly sits atop the mid bollinger band.

For the week, TSLA closed at 167.98, down $2.08 from last Friday's 170.06. Hoping you enjoyed a good weekend with the ones you love.

Conditions:
* Dow down 9 (0.03%)
* NASDAQ down 44 (0.35%)
* SPY down 1 (0.13%)
* TSLA 167.98, down 4.10 (2.38%)
* TSLA volume 157.8M shares
* Oil 70.04
* IV 47.5, 4%
* Max Pain 167.50 for May 12, 170.00 for May 19
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 65%
* Volume at 4pm closing cross: 2.7M

 

[Papafox]

Oops, my link to the interview of James Douma by Brighter with Herbert was incorrect in the post above but has been corrected there and here.

 

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TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

What a crazy day for TSLA trading. TSLA was down compared with QQQ. Some investors once again got worried Elon would announce his retirement as TSLA CEO at the annual meeting because he has scheduled a long interview with an apparently friendly CNBC reporter after the meeting. Others say that since he informed the company that he needs to personally approve every new hire, he's obviously going to be more involved with Tesla than normal. Since percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts dropped to 50% today, and since TSLA closed farther from max pain than it began, I'm not blaming the market makers today.

OTOH, we did see two really strong dips in TSLA on Monday. One was a few minutes before 10am when the macros dipped and TSLA took an unusually big dip (1.3 million shares sold at 9:56am) and again a few minutes before 11am when QQQ took the tiniest of tiny moves below the red/green line and we saw 1.1 M TSLA shares trade at 10:56am. It could be some shenanigans from a hedge fund, but more likely it's just the market being jumpy one day before the annual meeting.

Normally, an annual meeting is so scripted it doesn't move the market, but there have been exceptions in the past. With so much news just waiting to blossom, Cybertruck production, Model 3 Highland production, etc., there's room for a pleasant surprise.

Y'all tune in at 3 pm Central Daylight Time on Tuesday, you hear! (10am for those of you in Hawaii)
Here's a link to the Tesla Investors Meeting Notice

News:
* Car & Driver has announced that Tesla left BMW in the dust for claims as the biggest selling luxury car brand in the U.S. during 2022
* Teslarati says that Tesla will demolish and then rebuild a production line in Fremont, perhaps for Model 3 Highland
* The Virgin Islands has been on a fishing trip lately, trying to come up with some angle so that it can get JP Morgan to pay money to Epstein victims. Notables who have been subpoenaed include both Larry Page and Sirgi of Google. Elon is now included in this fishing expedition and he Tweeted a good smackdown here.
* Elon lost an appeal against the SEC and must still clear certain Tesla Tweets with his Tweet-nanny before posting
* The Delaware Supreme Court overturned a lower court and Tesla now has the right to sell cars in the state. The court correctly stated that the law being considered was designed to protect dealerships from heavy-handed manufacturers, and since Tesla has no dealerships in the state, the law that had been used against their selling cars does not apply.
* Bloomberg tonight says that Tesla revamped Model 3 nears final trial production in Shanghai. The unnamed source said, it "is slightly longer than the earlier version, is more sporty and has a sleeker interior design."

Percent of selling tagged to TSLA shorts fell to 50% on Monday, suggesting significantly less manipulations for the day

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds rose again, up to 3.49% on Monday. Once again, the rise appears caused by fear of recession, not expectations of higher inflation

For context, here's Monday's www.truflation.com estimate of actual U.S. inflation, down very substantially in the last month. Notice it's more than 1.5% less than the U.S. government reported number.

Max pain Monday morning was 170.

Monday's options volumes

TSLA is just sliding down the mid-BB, waiting for some good news

Conditions:
* Dow up 48 (0.14%)
* NASDAQ up 81 (0.66%)
* SPY up 1 (0.33%)
* TSLA 166.35, down 1.63 (0.97%)
* TSLA volume 104.5M shares
* Oil 71.29
* IV 47.3, 4%
* Max Pain 170.00
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 50%
* Volume at 4pm closing cross: 2.6M

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

The Tesla annual meeting was a net positive for the stock, and after-hours hike in the stock price confirmed the positivity. Elon scored a few points by saying that Tesla would install cameras in mines to show that there is no child labor being exploited to secure Tesla's ever-decreasing need for cobalt. It was a small point but obliterates a perpetual negative talking point about Tesla and EVs in general. Elon's presentation showed that Tesla Energy is expanding exponentially at present. The biggest negative of the talk was when Elon said that because of interest rates and the economy the next 12 months would be hard on everyone. That's when we saw the quick dip into the red at 4:43pm. When Elon positively responded to "Meet Kevin"'s request that Tesla explore doing some advertising, the meeting crowd cheered, but the stock price showed no movement. After that, it was an upward climb for the stock price. Wall Street may respond positively on Wednesday. One attendee asked "Say it ain't so that you might leave as Tesla CEO" and Elon replied "It ain't so" We saw upward movement of the stock price there.

One item with a less than stellar trajectory at the meeting was Cybertruck. Elon emphasized that because it's new technology, Cybertruck will initially be difficult (read "expensive") to produce. That statement suggests that the starting prices on Cybertrucks sold will be fairly high. Elon also estimated a ramp to 250K, maybe 500K per year if demand is there for Cybertruck, which is small compared to number of Model Ys being sold. He also gave a timeline of "before end of this year" for start of deliveries, which is pretty much a slip from previous expectations.

One positive moment was when Elon said that two new Tesla products are currently in development (Gen-3 $25K vehicles and van?). Tesla Boomer Mama asked about margins once FSD has peaked. Elon eventually gave an answer of somewhere around 80%. Let's see if that will sink in with the media and analysts and maybe they're give TSLA at least an extra nickel of valuation for the amazing FSD profits that are coming.

The biggest surprise was word about Optimus. We saw videos of Optimus doing delicate tasks (touching but not breaking an egg) and walking. Elon stunned us with a confident statement that he feels future Tesla profits will in time be dominated by Optimus. He believes the addressable market would be in the tens of billions and that a monthly maintenance fee could be tacked on. Let's see if anyone on Wall Street bites. As the questions wound down and Elon showed himself to be very coherent and focused on giving a good meeting to the shareholders, the stock price kept rising after hours. I suggest watching this video podcast by Dave Lee to understand the full impact that Optimus will likely have on Tesla profits.

As I digest the impact of the annual meeting, I am even more convinced with my TSLA investment thesis, which is to not rely on Tesla for short-term funding of my retirement for the next couple years but that the long term remains brilliant and so I HODL. Congrats fellow longs on an extraordinary annual meeting!

Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts came in at 51%, suggesting (but not guaranteeing) that manipulations were limited compared to last week

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds continued to rise and closed around 3.53% on Tuesday.

Max pain dipped back down to 167.50 Tuesday morning, which is very close to neutral between puts and calls. As you move higher to 170, calls dominate, but not terribly. At 175 the puts are small and calls number more than 35K contracts. At 180, there are more than 70K call contracts to keep the Market Makers worried at night. I suggest if TSLA wants to run in the morning because of the excellent annual meeting, MMs will try to keep TSLA below 175, and they'd rather tie their grandmothers to a railroad track rather than allow TSLA to exceed 180 this week.

Monday's options volumes

Whee! as we slide along the middle bollinger band. Time to jump higher on Wednesday? Fingers crossed. Much depends upon convincing Wall Street that FSD and Optimus are both going to become real and supercharge the Tesla money printing machine.

Conditions:
* Dow down 336 (1.01%)
* NASDAQ down 22 (0.16%)
* SPY down 3 (0.67%)
* TSLA 166.52, up 0.17 (0.10%)
* TSLA volume 94.5M shares
* Oil 70.56
* IV 47.3, 4%
* Max Pain 167.50
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 51%
* Volume at 4pm closing cross: 2.0M shares

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Yep, things on Wednesday pretty much went as expected. TSLA's mandatory morning dip right after market open (even before the macros dipped) was a classic shorting-induced pushdown to say, "Nothing to see here today, folks, move along, move along." Sometimes an MMD can backfire when it is aggressively bought, and that's what happened Wednesday morning when the quickly bought dip turned into a vertical climb. Serves the priates right! As 11am approached TSLA bounced off 174 and the capping exercise began that would keep TSLA roughly a dollar below 175 throughout market close.

Percent of selling tagged to shorts was a mere 51%, which strikes me as a likely instance of MMs moving to naked or non-FINRA-sourced shorting in order to camouflage their tactics on Wednesday. The whack-a-mole sledgehammer came out any time cute little TSLA approached or even exceeded 174, so it was indeed a heavy capping exercise. Somebody must have been covering lots of shorting during the 4pm closing cross because 4.8M shares traded during that minute.

Guessing where the stock goes on Thursday is much more difficult than for Wednesday. After successfully capping a 4.5% rally (successful is a relative term here), the market makers are determined to hold their ground and if TSLA volume is under Wednesday's 124 million shares, they may succeed or even get a reversal. OTOH, if there's another bit of good Tesla news that pops up, the rally could continue as FOMO sets in, particularly for those who sold before the Q1 ER in the 180s.

In an excellent example of "things sometimes aren't as they seem", percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts remained at a lowish 51%, suggesting lowish manipulations on a day when the evidence suggests someone was shorting the "sugar" out of TSLA to keep it under 175. Using dark pools for borrowed shares and doing naked shorting are the ways lots of shorting can take place on a day when the FINRA percent of selling number is relatively mild.

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds crept higher to 3.55% on Wednesday as investors worry about a recession.

The cause of the rise in bond yields certainly wasn't fears of inflation. WWW.truflation.com shows the U.S. inflation rate continues to plummet and is now below 3.3%. If Darth Powell raises rates in June I am going to push for mandatory drug testing of all federal reserve members, the decisions are that ludicrous. Powell will get his 2% inflation number, but it could have been done without creating a regional banking crisis, gorking the livelihoods of people involved in the housing business, and throwing ice cold water on vehicle manufacturers.

Max pain Wednesday morning rose back to 170. The 180 strike call wall is now 78K contracts high and market makers will be severe in their efforts to keep TSLA below 180 this week. Let's see if 175 can be breached on Thursday, which might create a little FOMO for those investors who sold in the 180s prior to the Q1 ER.

Wednesday's options volumes

The upper bollinger band was at 174.87 Wednesday afternoon, which helped define the top end of Wednesday's big move higher. Mostly, though, the market makers simply don't want TSLA above 175 this week.

Conditions:
* Dow up 409 (1.24%)
* NASDAQ up 158 (1.28%)
* SPY up 5 (1.21%)
* TSLA 173.86, up 7.34 (4.41%)
* TSLA volume 124.1M shares
* Oil 72.54
* IV 44.2, 0%
* Max Pain 170.00
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 51%
* Volume at 4pm closing cross: 4.8M

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Thursday was Day 2 for the battle of TSLA for 175, and I'm delighted that the longs won this one. Much was similar with Wednesday's trading in that the market makers managed to finagle a mandatory morning dip to discourage investors who saw TSLA rise to 176 in early pre-market trading. Through 2pm it was your typical whack-a-mole sledgeomatic action as pesky TSLA kept rising above 175 and had to be dealt with. Alas, after 2pm we saw NASDAQ and QQQ get frisky and start running higher. In fact, NASDAQ hit a new 52 week high. This macro climb of serious strength was just too much for the sledgeomatic operator to handle and TSLA joined the rally and closed at nearly 177 for the day. With all the capping done by the pirates, TSLA's gain of 1.74% was underwhelming when compared to NASDAQ's gain of 1.51%. You'd expect a 2X or about a 3% gain for TSLA if mischief wasn't involved.

Strong indications of manipulations included percent of TSLA selling by shorts rising to 66% on Thursday and a 4pm closing cross minute volume of 4.3 million shares as the market makers covered their day-shorting.

The big question mark of the day was the large after-hours surge of TSLA at 6:05pm. QQQ showed a smaller surge at 6:05pm, so there was something macro-related involved.

For Friday, the market makers would pretty much prefer a close below 175 but that's likely off the table unless NASDAQ goes red. OTOH, Thursday's after-hours trading was impressive price-wise and so the market would likely want to bump TSLA above 180 but the MMs are determined to keep that from happening. It just might be fun to watch!

Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts jumped all the way back up to 66% on Thursday, suggesting major manipulations

Yields on 10 yr. treasury bonds continued to rise on Thursday and closed at 3.65%

Max pain Thursday morning was 170. The market makers will really try max effort to keep TSLA below 180 on Friday.

Thursday's options volumes

Say bye-bye to the mid bollinger band and "hello" to the blue 50 day moving average. Notice that TSLA ran through the upper bollinger band on Thursday and never looked back.

Conditions:
* Dow up 115 (0.34%)
* NASDAQ up 188 (1.51%)
* SPY up 4 (0.96%)
* TSLA 176.89, up 3.03 (1.74%)
* TSLA volume 107.1M shares
* Oil 71.78
* IV 43.3, 0%
* Max Pain 170
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 66%
* Volume at 4pm closing cross: 4.3M shares

 

[Papafox]

TSLA chart above

QQQ chart above

Friday started out positively for NASDAQ and TSLA but approaching market open we saw the usual Mandatory Morning Dip of TSLA at market open as we have seen every day this week. Initially, QQQ was trending higher but comments from Fed Chairman Powell on Friday included the usual Darth Powell rhetoric about we have more work to do on interest rates, etc., and QQQ spend the late morning and all afternoon in the red. This CNBC article says rates might not have to rise as much as previously thought to curb inflation and this article interprets Powell's comments as likely leading to a pause at the next meeting.

In any event, the negative spin by the Fed cause NASDAQ to close down 0.24%. TSLA, OTOH, closed up 1.64%. TSLA really was ready to run higher, but we saw significant whack-the-mole activity any time cute little TSLA stuck its head above 180. Add that behavior to the MMD at market open, and you have a major effort by the MMs and hedgies (the option sellers) to keep TSLA from closing above 180 on Friday. Percent of TSLA selling by shorts was up at the nosebleed high level of 66% and volume during the 4pm closing cross was 3.7 million, indicating significant opportunities for the option sellers to cover their daily short selling.

Since TSLA closed 14 cents above 180, does that mean the market makers were willing to tie their grandmothers to the railroad track and watch them all be run over by the 4pm train? Actually no, because we saw TSLA pushed a penny or two below 180 in after-hours trading and prevent the 180-strike call owners from making any money. I'm guessing it'd take more like a 50 cents overshoot before sacrificing their grandmothers would become an equal pain event for them.

The clown show of the day was Gordon Johnson claiming on Twitter that Friday's $3.25 gain was entirely due to market makers delta hedging as TSLA rose. Ah, Gordon, with percent of selling tagged to shorts hitting 66% on Friday, might the manipulative selling actually be pushing TSLA downward and it's real buyers bidding the stock upwards? Sheesh.

truflation.com 's U.S. number is rapidly dropping to near 3%. Keep in mind that in June and July the base for the CPI 12 month inflation number is going to rise 2.5% (meaning that 2.5% of the 12 month inflation number should be replaced with a value of about 0.5% for two months of inflation). Thus the U.S. inflation rate which is showing as 5% could look more like 3% after the July CPI report if there are no big surprises.

So, what caused Tesla's stock to rise more than 7% this week? I'd say it's effects from the annual meeting: a hint of Tesla's brilliant future that might no longer be 100% overlooked by Wall Street, advertising by Tesla, Optimus future revenues being considered, and anticipation of Gen 3 vehicles in future years that are generating positives vibes for TSLA. It's all of these factors plus vehicles price raises instead of cuts by Tesla (so far, fingers crossed). That 7% rise puts TSLA right at 180, which is a price that creates Fear Of Missing Out in investors who bailed prior to Tesla's Q1 ER. I'm hoping the usual Monday morning optimistic opening can get the FOMO train rolling further along the track.

News:
* This Harris poll that Elon reacted to on Twitter is eye-opening when you scroll down to most favored political candidates. We don't have to worry about Elon's talents being wasted as president because he was born in a foreign country (South Africa) and therefore not legal to run). Nonetheless, Elon's popularity in politics is a testament, I believe, to the work he's doing to make Twitter as truthful as possible. Elon still screws up from time to time, but his growing political popularity suggests to me that his Twitter antics are being slowly replaced by Twitter becoming viewed as a fair public forum for all, regardless of political leaning. Why does it matter to TSLA investors? Fewer Americans are going to pass on buying Teslas because they disagree with Elon's politics. He's making progress.

For the second day in a row, 66% of TSLA selling was tagged to shorts. Remember that 68% is about as high as we ever see this number. Push-down manipulations were likely significant on Friday because of this high number.

Yields on 10 year treasury bonds spiked higher on Friday morning after Darth Powell delivered his remarks, closing around 3.67%.

Max pain was listed as 170 for Friday. You can see the huge call wall at 180, something the MMs were laser-focused on throughout Friday's trading.
Under the first chart, you can see Friday's options volumes

So, in this post, @Curt Renz figured max pain had risen to 180 on Friday. I don't know his techniques, but expect them to be sound (his predictions have typically nailed the Friday closing price). I suspect as options close Friday progresses, the max pain moves closer to the stock price as some options buyers close out their bets. In any event, I split the difference, figuring 175 would have been closer to max pain on Friday and put a red dot there. Nonetheless, I too was predicting that 180 would be the battle on Friday.

For this coming Friday, the enormous call wall is at 200 and the nearer call peaks are much lower. This is due in part to the past week being a monthly options expiration and the coming week being just a normal weekly expiration. Max pain is listed as 170 but should rise toward the stock price early in the week.

Looking at the tech chart, TSLA has made it above the blue 50 day moving average, hurrah! Now, if TSLA can continue a climb, it could pull the 50 DMA upwards and a crossing through the red 200 day moving average would excite the technical traders in a good way.

For the week, TSLA closed at 180.14, up 12.16 (7.2%) from the previous Friday's 167.98. It's been a good week my friends. Hoping you relax outdoors and spend time this weekend with those you love.

Conditions:
* Dow down 109 (0.33%)
* NASDAQ down 31 (0.24%)
* SPY down 1 (0.15%)
* TSLA 180.14, up 3.25 (1.64%)
* TSLA volume 134.5M shares
* Oil 71.55
* IV 44.5, 1%
* Max Pain 170 for both May 19 and May 26
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 66%
* Volume at 4pm closing cross: 3.7M