Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

Daily Trading Chart for Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Traveling.. sorry no commentary today, other than to say that with no significant news, low volume and short percentage of trading approaching 70%, we're seeing a highly manipulated trading day. Notice the huge upward jump in price prior to close. This jump tells me that there are buyers (a mix of longs and shorts) who don't want to miss the big runup in TSLA when it comes. There's more fear of TSLA rising than fear of it falling at present, judging by the panic buying that takes place when TSLA starts heading up. The only reason for the down days is macro down days and that the shorts are pushing the limits with TSLA lately.

Conditions:
* Dow down 83 (0.33%)
* NASDAQ up 25 (0.33%)
* TSLA 332.30, up 4.1 (1.25%)
* TSLA volume 5.0M shares
* Oil missing

 

[Papafox]

Daily Trading Chart for Thursday, March 8, 2018

Short post
Today was yet another low volume day with an extraordinarily high percentage of trading done by shorts. The broader markets were up slightly, which would normally be a positive environment for trading TSLA. The big dip about halfway through the after-market trading was likely the announcement that Tesla's Chief Accounting Officer is leaving the company. Such a position is not critical to a big company like Tesla and the market corrected for most of the overreaction prior to the end of after-market trading.

Overall, we're still in that no-man's land as we await the production rate for Model 3 as Tesla departs March. It is quite possible that Tesla is waiting to the end of the month for making its move, and the lack of evidence of such a ramp-up yet gives the shorts some confidence. It could all change hugely by the end of the month, however.

Conditions:
* Dow up 94 (0.38%)
* NASDAQ up 31 (0.42%)
* TSLA 329.10, down 3.20 (0.96%)
* TSLA volume 3.6M shares
* Oil 60.48, up 0.36 (0.60%)

 

[Papafox]

Friday was a huge up day for the broader markets and yet TSLA traded down a point or two. Why? Looking at the short percentage of trading, we see that again shorts traded nearly two-thirds of TSLA's shares, so this is a huge part of the equation. Take a look at the deep dips brought about by tens of thousands of shares being sold in a minute's time and you get the picture as TSLA took deep dips and then almost immediately would recover most of these losses. Capping between 2pm and 3pm was quite apparent. The NASDAQ, in contrast, opened up and never looked back, with a smooth climb throughout the day. Huge up days for macros are not TSLA's best days, particularly when the shorts pull off a big mandatory morning dip. Next, remember that today was a Friday and some big organization could have had a lot of 327.50 calls sold and was protecting that investment. Finally, Adam Jonas did something strange. He basically repeated a previous prediction that TSLA is going up and then down (down because of competitive pressures). Could Jonas have been helping some shorts extract themselves or some organization hoping to see the 327.50 calls they sold expire worthlessly? Who knows, but his repeat of a previous prediction on this potentially positive trading day makes you wonder.

Short percentage of trading continues to be sky high this week with nearly 66% of trading done by shorts today

For the week, TSLA closed at 327.17, down 7.95 from last Friday's 335.12. Considering that the shorts traded about 2/3rds of the shares this week, a loss of less than $8 is pretty impressive. Here's hoping we see some good news soon regarding Model 3 production numbers so that we can shake up the shorts with a taste of reality and return to the business of climbing.

Conditions:
* Dow up 441 (1.77%)
* NASDAQ up 133 (1.79%)
* TSLA 327.17, down 1.93 (0.59%)
* TSLA volume 5.5M shares

 

[Papafox]

Well, it had to happen sooner or later.... History repeated itself again (as usual) and all the extraordinary manipulations of Tesla shorts last week were erased in a couple hours' time as TSLA rallied right after an anemic mandatory morning dip. Shorts have from time to time helped to depress TSLA by large amounts in the past when some type of dread exists in the minds of TSLA longs, but in recent history the only significant dread would have been generated by macro issues that never reached critical levels. Thus, once TSLA descended into the 320s last week, shorts found they could push it no lower. Buyers kept materializing.

Macros were mixed today, which was a good environment for TSLA. What prompted this particular rally? While some might suggest that Tesla's decision to raise supercharger rates was the key, other members of our community suggest something more important, such as a large investor getting a tour of the gigafactory or factory and deciding that TSLA was now prime to pick up. I'm thinking more along the lines of the latter case since accumulation of shares continued strong throughout the day.

Taking a look at the technical chart, you can see that although shorts could temporarily push TSLA below the mid 320s last week, such efforts were not sustainable. Notice, too, how TSLA closed in the low-to-mid 340s, one of its "happy places" (not too cold, not too hot, just right) while awaiting news of the Model 3 ramp up. With today's gains, the blue 50 DMA is ready to start climbing toward the 200 DMA and produce a "golden cross" which should delight technical traders. The only bad news today is that the upper bb stands at only 356.40 at this moment, suggesting that it will not gain and hold more than about 11 points in the coming couple of days. Some actual good news could eliminate such a constraint in the short term, however.

Conditions:
* Dow down 157 (0.62%)
* NASDAQ up 28 (0.36%)
* TSLA 345.51, up 18.34 (5.61%)
* TSLA volume 8.2M shares
* Oil 61.36, down 0.68 (1.10%)

 

[Papafox]

Today was a consolidation day after yesterday's 18 point rise. Broader markets were down (NASDAQ by 1%), and short volume was unusually high still (62%). The NASDAQ lost ground rather smoothly through the day, with a noticeable dip around noon. In contrast, the TSLA shorts came out with guns blazing and brought about a 10am dip, followed by a much deeper one about 11am. Despite all these headwinds, TSLA only lost about 3 and a half points today. Should tomorrow be an up day for the broader markets, TSLA may well return to climbing.

The level of shorting suggests that shorts are still heavily involved in trying to derail TSLA's SP. Now would be an excellent time for Tesla to show evidence of a substantial Model 3 ramp up because it would trap a large number of shorts as the SP rocketed higher. Fingers crossed.

Conditions:
* Dow down 172 (0.68%)
* NASDAQ down 77 (1.02%)
* TSLA 341.84, down 3.67 (1.06%)
* TSLA volume 6.0M shares
* Oil 60.82, up 0.11 (0.18%)

 

[Papafox]

Today was a classic FUD dump and short-selling attack, with shorts responsible for nearly 70% of TSLA trading activity today. The NASDAQ did not dip substantially towards end of day as TSLA did. Instead, the dip was primarily selling to depress the SP during the historically lower-volume afternoon hours (except the volume picked up considerably are required LOTS of resource to be expended by the shorts)..

CNBC published several negative TSLA articles today. Ringleader of the CNBC FUDsters is a "journalist" named Lora Kolodny who has previously volunteered to skewer Tesla at a timing convenient to her short puppetmasters. She is responsible for the hit piece about Tesla needing to rework defective parts on Tesla cars, plus she had her hand in another story.

Further, you can see from the chart below that shorts accounted for nearly 70% of TSLA trading today. The good news? This level of short selling plus FUD generation is unsupportable for long. Longs are showing no great dread about the future and there will be a limit to how far TSLA can be pushed down before it springs back up. Watch the opening tomorrow... once this short attack bottoms out this will be yet another nice buying opportunity.

Nearly 70% of TSLA trading being done by shorts on a day with heavy FUD released by CNBC? No wonder TSLA is down by two digits today.

You can see why shorts are so determined to push TSLA down. They're still down half a billion dollars for the year, but today eliminated a good chunk of their negativity for the year. Do I think shorts can pull off another -$15 day? Nope. Today's dip was built on FUD and short-selling of epic proportions and enough longs will figure it out.

No wonder shorts are so frantic to see TSLA go lower. Unfortunately for them, we've seen buying materialize when TSLA gets into the mid 320s. I suspect we're close to the bottom of this trading range. I hope to do some buying at the bottom of any substantial mandatory morning dip tomorrow.

Conditions:
* Dow down 249 (1.0%)
* NASDAQ down 14 (0.19%)
* TSLA 326.63, down 15.21 (4.45%)
* TSLA volume 8.0M shares
* Oil 61.04, up 0.08 (0.13%)

 

[Papafox]

Today was a continuation of the short attack on TSLA, but the shorts have pretty much taken this attack about as far as it can go. With a robust 65% of trading done by shorts, they needed to use every trick in the book just to get TSLA to close in the red. On a day with mixed macros, TSLA began with a climb in pre-market trading, which quickly turned into a jump up right after opening and exceeded 332 at one point. Shorts went to work with a game of "whack the mole" and TSLA spent pretty much the rest of the day jumping between red and green. Only through substantial selling were shorts able to keep the stock from running upwards. Unless real Tesla news or bad macros intervene, I suspect TSLA is ready to turn around tomorrow. I'll be watching carefully.

My hope was that the shorts would try hard for a deepish mandatory morning dip, have it rejected in no uncertain terms by the longs, and then have buying return this stock to a more reasonable price by climbing towards the comfortable middle ground in the 32X-360 trading range. Alas, we instead had a slow game of red/green/red/green.

The value to shorts of yesterday's FUD about Tesla's need to rework many vehicles was the implication that Tesla is restrained by this production problem and will not come close to the 2500M3/week production target by end of this month. Many longs reject this implication, I suspect.

Conditions:
* Dow up 116 (0.47%)
* NASDAQ down 15 (0.20%)
* TSLA 325.60, down 1.03 (0.32%)
* TSLA volume 6.6M shares
* Oil 61.16, down 0.03 (0.05%)

 

[karpodiem]

"Today was a continuation of the short attack on TSLA, but the shorts have pretty much taken this attack about as far as it can go."

Famous last words.

 

[Papafox]

About an hour before close today I was feeling like the smartest kid on the block and then the selling into close began and we lost our chance at a green finish. No doubt shorts (who traded 2/3rds of today's TSLA shares again today), had the biggest hand in the mischief, and perhaps since this was a quadruple witching Friday for options some big dog may have assisted by selling in hopes of sinking TSLA below 320. Since shorts are still down about $4 billion since the beginning of 2017, they're going to have to work a whole lot harder than this to reclaim those losses.

What longs and shorts are both watching is the Model 3 ramp-up. Longtime Tesla watchers cringe at that thought of Tesla engineering a mega-ramp-up in the final week or two of the month (since much can go wrong), but that's the world we live in. In the meantime, realize the dip we've been riding recently is primarily short-seller-induced and it too will come to an end. How soon it comes to an end depends upon how evidence of a Model 3 ramp-up appears to longs as the end of March gets closer. Looking at the relatively light volume during this dip, the problem isn't so much longs selling as it is longs sitting on the fence a bit longer about buying, waiting for the shorts to give them an even bigger discount before picking up additional shares. An excellent reference to the normal TSLA volatility is this post by @bdy0627 . Volatility is normal for TSLA and the repeating patterns are striking. One reference for output of vehicles at Fremont is this person's thread which shows frequent photos of Fremont lots where new Teslas are stored until picked up by delivery truck. Even though I've done fairly well in the past at guessing bottoms based upon failures of the shorts to manipulate, I'm thinking this month that evidence of the ramp-up of Model 3 will ultimately lead the SP until an actual announcement by Tesla is made.

The percentage of TSLA trading by shorts is still about two-thirds of all trading, giving you a good idea for the stock's strange behavior recently

For the week, TSLA closed at 321.35, down 5.82 from last Friday's 327.17. Enjoy your weekend.


Conditions:
* Dow up 73 (0.29%)
* NASDAQ up 0 (0.00%)
* TSLA 321.35, down 4.25 (1.31%)
* TSLA volume 6.1M shares
* Oil 62.41, up 1.16 (1.89%)

 

[Papafox]

Today was basically a train wreck for tech stocks with Facebook derailing, pulling the broader markets off the tracks with it. The NASDAQ closed down nearly 2%, which was the primary reason for TSLA's losses today. Naturally, Goldman's Analyst David Tamberrino used the occasion to reiterate his perpetual sell rating for TSLA and describe why. Notice the very short-term rally of TSLA before 11am. Although the stock had a bad day, it still shows remarkable ability to induce rapid buying when a rally materializes.Shorts are still in a frenzy, trading 65% of TSLA today.

Let me clarify a point from yesterday. The primary reason why my reading the short-seller tea leaves worked so well when we bottomed out at 295 on a recent dip (and I bought at 297), was that the issue at hand (Q4 ER) was already over and we were just waiting for the inevitable turning point. This month's situation with Model 3 production focus is an evolving drama, and although the shorts can run into trouble on a particular day, news and the inevitable creep towards the end of March changes the sentiments of shorts and longs alike on a daily basis, which can yield additional room for the shorts to work their mischief if the news isn't supportive of progress. So... let's see how the Model 3 production situation has changed today:
* Bloomberg has a Model 3 tracker that shows numbers which are considered too conservative by many on this forum. Nonetheless, Bloomberg just upgraded their estimate from about 700 M3s/week to about 900 M3s/week.
* One of the most bullish analysts on Tesla, James Albertine, met with Tesla executives and came away from the meeting with a view that Tesla will produce about 2,000 Model 3s/week by month's end. His take is that investors will not consider this number a miss that concerns them but will instead see it as a sign of substantial progress. He may be right because Musk has a tendency to deliver about 80% of what he claims he will will delivery by a certain date, then goes on to deliver the whole number later.
* TMC member @augkuo has posted additional photos of the Fremont lot, which shows LOTS of Model 3s, Ss, and Xs in the process of being loaded onto transport trucks for delivery.

I'd say that news favors the longs today. Let's see what effect today's news has on Tuesday's trading if macros are decent.

Conditions:
* Dow down 336 (1.35%)
* NASDAQ down 138 (1.84%)
* TSLA 313.56, down 7.79 (2.42%)
* TSLA volume 7.5M shares
* Oil 62.77, up 0.64 (1.07%)

 

[Papafox]

Today was a moderate up day for the broader markets (a good environment for TSLA longs), and at TSLA we instead saw a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. TSLA began the morning up, was pushed down 4 times, recovered from the biggest dip into a rally which was cut off just past the green (whack-a-mole strategy) and then spent the afternoon with short-induced dips and longs buying the dips. In after-hours trading TSLA is recovering a bit so far, suggesting buyers are trying to pick up some shares before tomorrow's opening (a positive sign).

Volume today was low and short percentage of trading still unusually high (64%).

Looking at the technical chart, one reason the shorts may be having difficulties making more progress is because TSLA is bumping up against the lower bollinger band. TSLA lacks the downward momentum to blast through the lower bb like it did on its way to 294.76 on the last swan dive. The lower bb will settle a bit if shorts continue to eak out additional declines. News of the Model 3 production ramp will dominate all, but looking at the reversals to green by TSLA today and after-market optimism, there's a chance of a turnaround tomorrow.

Changes in Model 3 production ramp-up:
* This twitter account today says "#Tesla registered 2,042 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 15885."


Conditions:
* Dow up 116 (0.47%)
* NASDAQ up 20, (0.27%)
* TSLA 310.55, down 3.01 (0.96%)
* TSLA volume 4.8M shares
* Oil 63.74, up 0.20 (0.31%)

 

[Papafox]

Tremors picked up by the Papafox seismograph regarding difficulties encountered by short sellers over the previous two days suggested a green day was becoming likely, and it happened today. One catalyst today was the okay by shareholders of Elon's pay package for the next 10 years. So far, the lower bollinger band has helped prevent deeper dips with the shorts pushing hard. Broader markets were down somewhat, due to the fed making an expected interest rate adjustment, which made TSLA's climb today all the more impressive.

As I mentioned previously, all eyes are on M3 production ramp-up. Good or bad things lay ahead in the short term, depending upon how the evidence presents itself as the end of March unfolds. My suggestion continues to be avoiding short-term speculation and instead betting that TSLA wil achieve 5K M3 production at some point this year, which will send TSLA quite a bit higher, due to the prospects of profitability.

Shorts are continuing to trade two-thirds of TSLA shares this month, even on these up days.

Conditions:
* Dow down 44 (0.18%)
* NASDAQ down 19 (0.26%)
* TSLA 316.53, up 5.98 (1.93%)
* TSLA volume 5.9M shares
* Oil 65.60, up 0.43 (0.49%)

 

[justvisiting]

Im not an expert on this, but how can you claim that the high short percentage is responsible for the days the stock drops, and on the next day claim the stock went up on good news despite the short percentage being nearly the same for weeks?
this seems like a pretty shortsighted, if not wishful explanation of the stock performance.

 

[Off Shore]

Im not an expert on this, but how can you claim that the high short percentage is responsible for the days the stock drops, and on the next day claim the stock went up on good news despite the short percentage being nearly the same for weeks?
this seems like a pretty shortsighted, if not wishful explanation of the stock performance.

NB around here funny is usually not funny-haha but funny-ridicule.

 

[Papafox]

Im not an expert on this, but how can you claim that the high short percentage is responsible for the days the stock drops, and on the next day claim the stock went up on good news despite the short percentage being nearly the same for weeks?
this seems like a pretty shortsighted, if not wishful explanation of the stock performance.

There is no crystal ball and I give my best guesses but with reasons for those guesses. On days with low volume (below 6M shares), and with shorts trading 2/3rds of the shares, you're realistically looking at only about 2M or fewer shares sold by longs. That's very little selling by longs and in market transactions that are not dominated by the short-sellers, the supply and demand equation would suggest a higher stock price because there weren't be enough shares available at these low prices to satisfy demand if longs alone were offering the shares. Further, the manipulations of the shorts by beginning any potentially positive macro day with a mandatory morning dip, by engineering sticky dips on steroids, by selling hard into close when volume is light in the late afternoons... how can these tactics NOT adversely affect the stock price? On up days for TSLA when shorts are controlling the majority of transactions, members of these TMC forums report buying shares, which is representative of other longs buying shares, which suggests the stock price is rising despite the efforts of the shorts. Yes, some of the buying on up days is shorts covering, but it is not the reason for the up day. Rather, it is a response to the up day.

 

[Papafox]

Today the broader markets sunk deeply due to fears of Trump's trade policies regarding China. Fortunately, TSLA sank less than either the DOW or the NASDAQ, suggesting relative strength.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see that the lower BB has dropped down to 304.64, which does leave the door open for further declines of TSLA. On the other hand, the upper bb is close to 360, which leaves the door open for a really nice surge in SP if the Model 3 ramp shows substantial evidence of heading above 2000/week by month's end. Good news regarding Model 3 ramp is out today, with high VIN numbers being assigned and with Bloomberg suggesting a ramp-up may be taking place.

Here's hoping that the broader markets settle down tomorrow so that we can see some green from encouraging reports regarding Model 3 ramp-up. Tesla does appear to be making their big ramp-up move late in the month, which brings the issue of Model 3 production into nail-biter territory. Fingers crossed.

Conditions:
* Dow down 724 (2.93%)
* NASDAQ down 179 (2.43%)
* TSLA 309.10, down 7.43 (2.35%)
* TSLA volume 4.9M shares
* Oil 64.21, down 0.96 (1.47%)

 

[Papafox]

Looking at the Model 3 threads related to ordering, there's a huge increase in number of people who have been given option to configure their Model 3s today, and Canadians will be included in Model 3 deliveries soon. Hoping this increase in invitations to configure and the 12XXX VIN assignments is a prelude to evidence regarding actual production numbers increasing. Keeping ear to railroad track, but today's information should have an effect upon the SP if macros aren't in the cellar again.

 

[Papafox]

On Friday the second shoe dropped on the Trump tariffs, and the broader markets fell sharply. TSLA fell almost exactly the same amount as the NASDAQ, which explains the stock's poor performance. For the week, the markets endured their worse week since 2016.

The good news is that Tesla does indeed look to be attempting to greatly expand its Model 3 production as the end of March approaches. Twice this week Tesla registered over 2000 new Model 3 VINs and hugely increased the number of invitations to configure Model 3. Upcoming Model 3 deliveries to Canada were announced. James Albertine, a bullish analyst, spoke with Tesla and announced his belief that Tesla would be producing at 2,000 Model 3s/week by month's end. I think Albertine was likely used by Tesla to deflate expectations about Model 3 output at end of March while simultaneously declaring that investors will be satisfied with this number because is shows substantial progress. The market did not respond unfavorably to Albertine's remarks, and so he is probably right. At this point, few investors expect to see 2500M3/week production rate in little more than a week's time.

One encouraging sign is that three VINs of greater than 12000 were announced this week. Another positive sign is the large number of Teslas appearing daily in the Fremont delivery lot and briskly being whisked away by delivery trucks. It's too early to either assume that Tesla will hit 2000 Model3s/wk in March, and too soon to assume they will fall substantially below that number. Again, longer-term investment strategies are suggested when there is so much short-term uncertainty. Personally, I'm sitting on my J19 leaps and shares because if we hit the high Model 3 production numbers, TSLA will move up very quickly and if the numbers fall short, we will still move up substantially from here when Model 3 hits higher production rates this year. I also did a small buy at 304 this week, locking in what I believe will be a great price once the stock recovers from this current dip. I have kept additional powder dry just in case we go lower.

Short-seller percentage of TSLA trading has been brutal at about 2/3rds of TSLA trading since early March. Investors can correctly assume that this level of manipulation has artificially lowered the stock price. We longs are currently being offered a nice discount on shares. Typically, TSLA makes a large correction upward after the shorts chisel away at the SP over time. I suspect that correction is not too far off.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA has descended below 306 five times since early November. Notice that these descents either didn't dip below the lower bollinger band or that the stock price rose to within the lower bb within 3 days after pushing through the lower bb. If there's bad news in the delivery report in early April, it is possible that TSLA could drop lower, but without such news (unless the macros get really funky), TSLA should bounce in the 290s at some point. It takes some really bad news to keep TSLA below the lower bb for more than 3 days.

For the week, TSLA closed on Friday at 301.54, down 19.81 from last Friday's 321.35. Most of this loss can be attributable to bad macros.

In conclusion, TSLA continues to be a volatile stock, and dips to the low 300s or the 290s have been fairly common since November. In each case, TSLA has bounced back. The company is sound. There's high interest in Model S and X because with low inventories but high production, Tesla seems to be able to sell all the S and Xs it can make. Further, Tesla is producing these large numbers of S and X with 2 shifts instead of 3, which suggests efficiencies and better S and X margins in Q1. Model 3 has been shown to be a truly exceptional vehicle at its price range and demand will continue to soar as more people are exposed to this vehicle. Model 3 production is apparently ramping fast in these final weeks of March. The only really bad news has been that deliveries in Q1 have been somewhat constrained by the drawdown in inventory that took place in Q4 and that Model 3 ramp-up has been slow until the last week or so. I suspect the investor community would be happy to hear 2,000 Model 3 deliveries/week at the end of March, especially if accompanied with promising words about the ramp to higher numbers in Q2.

Better days lay ahead. Have a good weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow down 425 (1.77%)
* NASDAQ down 175 (2.43%)
* TSLA 301.54, down 7.56 (2.45%)
* TSLA volume 6.7M shares
* Oil 65.88, up 1.58 (2.46%)

 

[Papafox]

The positive news keeps coming:
* Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable This post links to a reddit post which claims a supplier confirming that Model 3 ramp up is going strong and real now
* A 13xxx Model 3 VIN has been assigned.

Looks like I will be doing more buying on Monday. The combination of a negative Tesla bias in the media lately and super-high percentage of TSLA trading being done by shorts this month has masked the good Model 3 ramp news of the past three trading days.

 

[MacRocket]

Thank you Papafox for your daily reports. I now know what “whack the mole” means, or at least I think I do.
Jokes aside it’s great to get your perspective when I am thinking of adding more TSLA to my portfolio and you are a calming influence on TSLA down days.
Keep up the good work.