So, we've just experienced a $50 drop in SP from yesterday's opening to today's close, following news that Tesla has reached its goal of producing 5K Model 3s/wk. Is this crazy? Yes it is.
The bear theory is that Tesla won't produce anywhere near 5K/wk Model 3s in Q3, won't make a profit, and even if it does make a profit in Q3 and Q4 the profits will not be sustainable. This is a last ditch effort by the enemies of Tesla to try and trip it up prior to the company reaching sustainable profitability. They won't succeed because demand is off the charts for Tesla's Model 3 and enough production is taking place in this quarter so that Tesla no longer needs to burn cash. In fact, the opposite is an option. Since part suppliers will generally give Tesla 90 or more days to pay on parts provided, Tesla is receiving payment for its cars well before paying for the parts. With 5K M3s/wk, this works out to be lots of cash coming in, not counting the millions received for configuration deposits in the past week. Elon was right that Tesla doesn't need a capital raise this year. If might be prudent to take one once the SP has recovered, but it can continue to ramp the M3 line until the cows come home without borrowing a nickel.
Rather than challenge the whole bear argument, what we need to look at right now is the likely number of Model 3s that will be produced in Q3 because with all the high-end M3s being produced alongside the very-high-margin Performance M3s, margins are not an issue for Q3. If you consider there will be 12 weeks in the quarter and 5K/wk Model 3 production on average, that would equate to 60,000 M3s next quarter. If you anticipate 2 weeks of down time for production line tweaking, etc., that's still 50,000 M3s in Q3, which will be well than enough to bring a profit. Let's look at how Wall Street took a wrong turn and is underestimating the number of M3s Tesla will produce in the current quarter.
Here's today's Bloomberg chart of Model 3 production. Notice that they never acknowledged Tesla's making 5,000 Model 3s last week. Instead, they showed barely over 4,400 and just look at the trend line (lighter green color). Is that 2500 M3s this week and 1800 M3s the following week? These numbers are delusional unless there's programmed down time for the lines. No wonder the shorts are so enthused, reading charts like this.
Here's how the media and the bears get it wrong with the math. Tesla delivered 18,440 Model 3s in Q2. Divide this number by 10 weeks and you get only 1844/wk average, which is below the 2000/wk production rate claimed in the beginning of Q2. The problem is that Tesla produced 28,578 Model 3s Q2, which works out to a much more reasonable 2858/wk average (well above advertised 2k/wk rate in early Q2). The rapid ramp in the end of the month, and the inability (or purposeful effort) to deliver these vehicles in Q2 accounts for the 11,166 Model 3s in transit in Q2, nearly 40% of the entire quarter's production! If the media discounts the significance of these kinds of numbers it is misleading the investment community, which helps to explain the very surprising dip these past two days.
The reality is that Tesla may not produce 5K M3s in the present week with a holiday and with last week's effort being an all-out sprint. I'd be surprised with less than 4200, though, and then the quantities are going to creep up towards 6K or higher at quarter's end or sooner (perhaps much sooner). Tesla does give numbers initially that require max effort from employees, but those numbers can in fact become sustainable numbers quickly as efficiencies occur. The whisper is that 5K/wk average looks realistic for M3 in Q3. Many production stations are already capable of 6K/wk. As I have already said, we've already won the war. Unless the enemies of Tesla can find a way to scare off the majority of buyers, Tesla is well on its way to becoming a vibrant, profitable company.
What about the shorts? Taking a look at the chart above from volumebot.com, you can see that shorts did nearly half the selling today. They're back with a score to settle and as they get in deeper this close to Tesla profitability, they're setting themselves up for one heck of a surprise.
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA fell to the intersection of the lower bollinger band and 50 day moving average, which finally provided the necessary support to stop today's downward motion. Why today for the big plunge? It was a half day of trading which allowed the shorts to sell like crazy and reach the closing bell before they ran out of ammo. July 4 has been a historically red week for TSLA, and so with a shortened holiday week and a shorted trading day on Tuesday, it was the perfect setup for their mischief.
What might the SP do on Thursday? Much depends upon what happens over the holiday. If good news (Elon tweets and analyst upgrades) overpowers the FUD, expect a turnaround. This close to Q3's profitability and with a price of 310, TSLA could climb very quickly. Without good news and/or poor macros, shorts could pull TSLA down further before the turnaround. Personally, I like to see attempts of shorting fail before I get comfortable that we've turned the corner. These prices are very attractive right now, but bare in mind that additional pressure could be forthcoming.
Tesla just this past weekend reached a milestone of being able to carry on indefinitely without the need for external capital to fund its Nevada and Fremont activities. Of course Tesla will build more factories, and of course they'll raise external cash for these, but the essential part of the equation is that they don't need to any more. Tesla will be worth much more in the future. The question is how do you play this dip which may now be at or near its bottom?