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This week, TSLA closed at 305.50, down 49.99 from last Friday's 355.49. We've all ridden in this rodeo before. Get a good strong hold of the reins, stay agile with your balance, and hang on! Tesla bull riding is not for the feint of heart, but it's dang satisfying when the horn blows. Have a good weekend.
With all this noise from the NYT hit piece on Elon, it's nice to know that Tesla is kicking ass in producing vehicles. Maybe one or two of the TV talking heads will take notice in another week or so.
Today I was time limited and so the report will be brief. Today was actually a very important day because the huge dip the shorts tried to pull off in pre-market trading was soundly defeated and likely marks the bottom of this over-reaction downtrend. After an attempt by the shorts to keep TSLA below 300 throughout the afternoon, TSLA recovered nonetheless and closed up a couple points. Bravo.
The rationale for this recent downtrend started with questions about how solid the privatization plans were and then morphed into concerns about Elon Musk. Anyone who wants to characterize Musk as on the ragged edge of rationality needs to look at this most recent video with Elon by Marques Brownlee. Needless to say, Elon is going to stick around, Tesla is going to continue improving production, and we're going to climb over 400 this year whether public or private. I agree with Neroden that with Elon so focused on going private, it will happen. In the meantime, low 300s is a truly remarkable price for acquiring TSLA stock.
The high percentage of selling by shorts today, 62%, suggests they put up a major effort to keep TSLA from climbing and they failed today.
Shorts sold 61.92% of TSLA today, according to volumebot.com
Bottom line: With both high volume and high selling by shorts, TSLA's climb today signals that unless the shorts can come up with really potent FUD or the macros go funky on us, TSLA is poised to begin climbing again.
Conditions:
* Dow up 89 (0.35%)
* NASDAQ up 5 (0.06%)
* TSLA 308.33, up 2.94 (0.96%)
* TSLA volume 16.9M shares
* Oil 65.92, up 0.46 (0.70%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 61.92%
Today was the day that last Friday should have been, but the New York Times super-FUD piece intervened and we had a big loss instead of a big gain. Yesterday was the bottoming out, which took place in pre-market trading and offered some really nice appreciation after that low. My congrats to anyone who bought in on either the pre-market dip yesterday or the small mandatory morning dip (or pre-market) today. Once TSLA bottomed out from the Musk tweet and privatization ramifications, it made zero sense to remain as a TSLA short, and some shorts figured this out. We thus have a situation with slowly declining short interest but shorts credited with over 60% of TSLA selling (over 62% today). More than 200K shares traded in the first minute of trading and nearly 200K shares in the final minute, which is quite high and suggests lots of activity by shorts. I suspect we will continue to see a slow decline in short interest while we await news on privatization and probably a decline in short percentage of selling as shorts start realizing that we've already bottomed out and there are no more easy stop-loss triggers to hit any more.
Coming tomorrow or soon after will be a note from ARK investments (Cathy Woods CEO) which will explain how they value TSLA as soon being worth over $4000/share and deducting 15% per year how TSLA should be worth over $2000 today. This ought to give the stock a pop, and at the very least will give TrendTrader007 a smile and a chance to nod in agreement. Cathy Wood says that ARK would not be able to participate in a private Tesla and she's advocating TSLA remaining public because by doing so it will have better access to capital and will be able to realize its full growth potential.
Looking at the tech chart, we've almost recovered to the mid-bb and still have lots of headroom to reach the upper-bb. If for some reason TSLA stagnates for a week, we'll see better prices on options. All things considered, I'd prefer to see rather slow trading for a while to preserve short interest, followed by news that sends TSLA quickly higher.
Conditions:
* Dow up 64 (0.25%)
* NASDAQ up 38 (0.49%)
* TSLA 321.90, up 13.46 (4.36%)
* TSLA volume 13.0M shares
* Oil 66.05, up 0.21 (0.32%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 62.33%
Papa, thanks as always for your well written posts!
Please forgive me, but today was just what I was hoping for. We saw a robust mandatory morning dip, which got defeated by day's end and look at all the scalloping on the top chart for trading between 11am and 2pm. Volume was low, which means not much selling by longs. That scalloping suggests to me an endless series of unsuccessful attempts by shorts to derail the recovery. Bravo, longs, we made it to green, but a little whack the mole by our not-so-friendly shorts dipped the stock slightly into the red in the final minutes. I love this action because shorts were not in control today but we didn't lose much share price at all while tempting the shorts to remain aboard for another day closer to you-know-what.
Hoping nobody had a heart attack by looking first at the lower daily chart, but there's a reason for posting it under today's chart. Take a look at the steep dip on both days that bottoms out about 9:45am. What happens is what I call a false recovery. In the future, see if you can spot a similar stock behavior at that time of day and predict what it will do next. You see the stock price start heading upward and it looks tempting to buy, but then the stock resumes its decline and you will wish you had waited. What I suggest is to be careful of recoveries from deep dips around 9:45am. I suggest looking for a more substantial recovery, preferably something after 11am.
Shorts sold 60% of TSLA shares today
Conditions:
* Dow down 89 (0.34%)
* NASDAQ up 30 (0.38%)
* TSLA 321.64, down 0.26 (0.08%)
* TSLA volume 5.8M shares
* Oil 67.99, up 0.13 (0.19%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 59.99%
TSLA did today much of what I hoped to see as we hang onto our short-sellers in very low-volume trading. Around 10am the stock demonstrated just how volatile it can be to the upside when an increase in buying led to a near vertical climb. That climb was methodically chipped away by the shorts, who accounted for 59% of TSLA's selling today. Most of the rest of the day was spent in a game of whack-the-mole (yawn). The only excitement was end of day when we wondered whether TSLA would break upward or downward. Shorts were willing to expend the horsepower, and so it went down slightly.
Short selling stood at just 59% today as the percentage of selling by shorts slowly comes down. This downtrend in the percentage of selling by shorts is a positive sign, as it indicates a slow degradation of manipulations by short sellers.
I've been writing furiously on a new article about Tesla this week. Looking forward to sharing it with all of you soon.
Conditions:
* Dow down 77 (0.30%)
* NASDAQ down 11 (0.13%)
* TSLA 320.10, down 1.54 (0.48%)
* TSLA volume 4.9M shares
* Oil 67.86, up 0.03 (0.04%)
Bloomberg showing 6,278 Model 3s/wk this morning. The trend is low for some reason but I like their belief that Tesla reached 6K/wk earlier than the end of August
As always, thank you so much papafox 
.
As the other investor threads go OT and get elongated with noise, it’s *so* refreshing to come to this thread where I can catch up on a few days and get a dose of sanity and good-natured, balanced commentary.
Can’t wait to read your article!!
.As the other investor threads go OT and get elongated with noise, it’s *so* refreshing to come to this thread where I can catch up on a few days and get a dose of sanity and good-natured, balanced commentary.
Can’t wait to read your article!!
It'll be Saturday evening or Sunday before the Friday piece gets posted. Lots going on for me at moment.
Based on other sources, I think the truth is somewhere around 5000/week. Bloomberg is pretty noisy.
I've been imbibing so much information I can't keep track of it, but there were leaks of some days off and "go home early" days on GA and rumors of supply bottlenecks in some of the parts for AWD. These rumors are consistent with one another, so I expect there's a supply bottleneck being resolved right now.
The tracker lags real production by a few weeks, so they could be heading towards 7k by now.
What matters most this weekend is to talk about Elon's decision to forego the privatization of Tesla. Thus, my summary for Friday will be brief. On Friday, Tesla traded with very low volume and stayed in the green with little ability of the shorts to pull it down. I think with 57% of the selling being done by shorts, we saw capping, but overall a ho-hum positive day indicating that the shorts have pretty much knock away most of the weak longs, leaving the determined types like us.
As we gain details about the board meeting regarding Elon calling off the privatization effort, we learn that it was done for the right reasons (efforts to create a mechanism include as many present investors as possible probably would not be legally possible and many investors who have held steadfastly these rough years are in for the rewards of the long-haul and should be included). We also learned that in the board meeting that Silver Lake confirmed the ability to find 25 billion plus in funding in order to make the privatization process possible. In many ways, it was the best of both worlds: the financial community wants in on Tesla for greater than 25 billion, and Musk listened to the concerns of investors are agreed they should continue to be able to own Tesla stock. The board agreed with Elon's wisdom and strong support for Musk continues to be evident on the board, despite the efforts of FUDsters to suggest otherwise.
So, what happens on Monday? If history serves us correctly, the shorts will try to depress the stock on opening, in the hopes that a decrease in the SP suggests that the privatization plan's termination is viewed as a real negative. Shorts always like to take advantage of an ambiguous situation and try to define the ambiguity as a negative. Reading the Market Action thread, though, I see a wave of relief to be done with this controversy and a view of longs being willing to buy more TSLA if there's a dip. So, I wouldn't be surprised by an initial negative reaction, but I suspect the bulls will triumph by the end of this week, and maybe quite a bit sooner than that.
Looking at the tech chart, you can see that the lower bb stands at 284.69, which could be a strong support point, but we may not ever get there. The upper bb at 381.84 gives TSLA room to run, so that if the reversal gets shorts spooked into covering, there's room for quite a nice upward run.
Personally, my investment mix should do better under public than private ownership, and so I too am breathing a sigh of relief.
For the week, TSLA closed at 322.82, up 17.32 from last Friday's 305.50. Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Conditions:
* Dow up 133 (0.52%)
* NASDAQ up 68 (0.86%)
* TSLA 322.82, up 2.72 (0.85%)
* TSLA volume 3.5M shares
* Oil 68.65 (Sunday) down 0.07 (0.10%)
* Percent of TSLA trading by shorts: 57.06%
My CleanTechnica article on the New York Times hit piece is now live.
The Billion-Dollar Tesla Hit Piece | CleanTechnica
The Billion-Dollar Tesla Hit Piece | CleanTechnica
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