Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

It'd be really slick if any of those short volume sites would break out the short (selling) volume by hour of the day. As a thought experiment, remember that every transaction has both a buyer and a seller. There's no transaction without both.

Therefore, from the pattern, I'd expect to see particularly high short selling % first thing in the morning (mandatory morning dip), but low short selling % in the closing minutes of the day (the short sellers are buy-to-close, which must mean that they're finding sell-to-close people to complete their transactions - if they're matching up with sell-to-open, then that would show up in the short sale %).

But what if at the end of the day, it's really a rotation from one batch of short sellers to a different batch. That would show up as a high short sell %.

How does that short selling % vary throughout the day? Do we see higher short selling % as the stock price rises to levels that seem important, and then fade as the price drops away?


Just a few questions I'd love to be able to answer, and all tie back to the idea - there isn't nearly enough market transparency around short sales. (IMO)

I've been pondering what could be done to get that info. My guess is that Ihor Dusaniwsky would be the most capable source of this info, but he may not share it for free. Maybe I can tweet him a provocative question and we can get a feel for when the shorts are doing their most enthusiastic selling.

 

[EinSV]

FINRA apparently provides monthly short sale transaction files that contain detailed data on all short sale transactions but it it is delayed by a month I believe. I have never dug into it but might be worth a look. The files through July 31, 2018 are at the link below.

The Daily Short Sale Volume Files provide aggregated volume by security on all short sale trades executed and reported to a FINRA reporting facility during normal market hours. The Monthly Short Sale Transaction Files provide detailed trade activity of all short sale trades reported to a consolidated tape.​

ADF Regulation SHO | FINRA.org

 

[adiggs]

FINRA apparently provides monthly short sale transaction files that contain detailed data on all short sale transactions but it it is delayed by a month I believe. I have never dug into it but might be worth a look. The files through July 31, 2018 are at the link below.

The Daily Short Sale Volume Files provide aggregated volume by security on all short sale trades executed and reported to a FINRA reporting facility during normal market hours. The Monthly Short Sale Transaction Files provide detailed trade activity of all short sale trades reported to a consolidated tape.​

ADF Regulation SHO | FINRA.org

Good find. Unfortunately, it looks like the '17 and '18 monthly files contain nothing more than a header. You have to go back into '15 to find files with data. If you or anybody else finds files with data, I'll do some poking around and see if I can make anything of them.

 

[Papafox]

Hope all of you are enjoying the extended weekend. It's been a good weekend so far for calibrating our expectations for Q3. Here are some developments:
* This post by Fact Checking in the market action thread uses the typically-excellent financial modeling of luvb2b to give some idea of the excellent free cash flow Tesla may see in Q3. He shows an increase in free cash flow of nearly $700 million in Q3. If Tesla's results are that good, it doesn't really matter what happens in the next couple of weeks, TSLA will be considerably higher after the Q3 ER and possibly will already be heading higher when the Q3 production and delivery numbers are announced. It's just a waiting game for us longs.

* We're getting a much better idea of how many Model 3s are actually being produced. Shorts have been scanning licensing info in the United States and are suggesting really low numbers like 3500/wk. On the high side, Bloomberg gave us a 6,200/wk number recently. Neroden has been suggesting more reasonable numbers between the two extremes and now we have more data.
This electrek.co story is based upon info from a supposed reliable source and says that although Tesla missed producing 6,000 Model 3s by the end of August, it still looks on track for producing 50,000-55,000 M3s in Q3. The source said that Tesla produced about 4300 Model 3s in the final week of August but that the trend now is heading up.
In the comments to the electrek.co story, a historically-reliable poster "carsonight" chimed in. He said that Tesla might be up to 4800 M3/wk by now, but that the bottleneck to production was cells produced by Panasonic at the Nevada gigafactory. It is Carsonight's opinion that Tesla won't get much above 5,000 M3/wk until Panasonic expands their 10 battery lines to a higher number (currently scheduled for 13). Ultimately, the gigafactory should be able to support 77 lines. We also learn from Carsonight that labor is a big issue in Northern Nevada. When Tesla came into town, lots of other companies followed (as support in some cases), they hired labor, and thus labor is very tight in the Reno/Sparks area (I can personally confirm). Neroden was right in the middle of the conversation, so he is well-versed with what is being said. Carsonight also said that scuttlebutt at the Gigafactory is that the performance version of M3 has been ordered in greater numbers than expected and so the transition to producing the standard battery pack is being put off until Q1 of 2019. That change suggests better margins for Q4.

The bottom line is that Tesla appears on track to deliver impressive positive cash flow in Q3 and Q4, it is still unclear if it can deliver a small GAAP profit (but it may) in Q3, and we should expect a nice rebound in the stock price when the reality of Tesla's financial strides comes to be understood by a wider audience. From an investing standpoint, Tesla will be a survivor, it will continue to move forward with greater Model 3 production and profits, but it has the potential to be a stock price appreciation that is staggered throughout the coming years rather than taking place in a massive rally. For these reasons, I suggest positioning yourself to take advantage of the coming gains, however they are paced and not concentrating on just one particular near-term date with options, so as to be sure you benefit from the uptick, however it comes.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Hope all of you are enjoying the extended weekend. It's been a good weekend so far for calibrating our expectations for Q3. Here are some developments:
* This post by Fact Checking in the market action thread uses the typically-excellent financial modeling of luvb2b to give some idea of the excellent free cash flow Tesla may see in Q3. He shows an increase in free cash flow of nearly $700 million in Q3. If Tesla's results are that good, it doesn't really matter what happens in the next couple of weeks, TSLA will be considerably higher after the Q3 ER and possibly will already be heading higher when the Q3 production and delivery numbers are announced. It's just a waiting game for us longs.

* We're getting a much better idea of how many Model 3s are actually being produced. Shorts have been scanning licensing info in the United States and are suggesting really low numbers like 3500/wk. On the high side, Bloomberg gave us a 6,200/wk number recently. Neroden has been suggesting more reasonable numbers between the two extremes and now we have more data.
This electrek.co story is based upon info from a supposed reliable source and says that although Tesla missed producing 6,000 Model 3s by the end of August, it still looks on track for producing 50,000-55,000 M3s in Q3. The source said that Tesla produced about 4300 Model 3s in the final week of August but that the trend now is heading up.
In the comments to the electrek.co story, a historically-reliable poster "carsonight" chimed in. He said that Tesla might be up to 4800 M3/wk by now, but that the bottleneck to production was cells produced by Panasonic at the Nevada gigafactory. It is Carsonight's opinion that Tesla won't get much above 5,000 M3/wk until Panasonic expands their 10 battery lines to a higher number (currently scheduled for 13). Ultimately, the gigafactory should be able to support 77 lines. We also learn from Carsonight that labor is a big issue in Northern Nevada. When Tesla came into town, lots of other companies followed (as support in some cases), they hired labor, and thus labor is very tight in the Reno/Sparks area (I can personally confirm). Neroden was right in the middle of the conversation, so he is well-versed with what is being said. Carsonight also said that scuttlebutt at the Gigafactory is that the performance version of M3 has been ordered in greater numbers than expected and so the transition to producing the standard battery pack is being put off until Q1 of 2019. That change suggests better margins for Q4.

The bottom line is that Tesla appears on track to deliver impressive positive cash flow in Q3 and Q4, it is still unclear if it can deliver a small GAAP profit (but it may) in Q3, and we should expect a nice rebound in the stock price when the reality of Tesla's financial strides comes to be understood by a wider audience. From an investing standpoint, Tesla will be a survivor, it will continue to move forward with greater Model 3 production and profits, but it has the potential to be a stock price appreciation that is staggered throughout the coming years rather than taking place in a massive rally. For these reasons, I suggest positioning yourself to take advantage of the coming gains, however they are paced and not concentrating on just one particular near-term date with options, so as to be sure you benefit from the uptick, however it comes.

Papafox I cannot thank you enough for your truly insightful posts

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

Anyone know when Tesla is scheduled for their Q3 ER?

 

[ggr]

Anyone know when Tesla is scheduled for their Q3 ER?

Not announced yet, but probably October 3.

 

[AlMc]

Not announced yet, but probably October 3.

A Tesla ER is usually in the first week of the second month after the quarter ends: Did you mean Nov 3rd for the ER/CC?

But I agree that it has not been announced yet and probably will be announced in mid October

 

[ggr]

A Tesla ER is usually in the first week of the second month after the quarter ends: Did you mean Nov 3rd for the ER/CC?

But I agree that it has not been announced yet and probably will be announced in mid October

You are right, I meant November but was looking at the calendar for October. It's always (so far...) after market close on a Wednesday. So that would be either October 31 or November 7... Nov 3 would have been perfect...

 

[madodel]

You are right, I meant November but was looking at the calendar for October. It's always (so far...) after market close on a Wednesday. So that would be either October 31 or November 7... Nov 3 would have been perfect...

But Oct 3rd or so should be when we hear numbers produced for Q3. That should be the next major news point expected, is it not?

 

[Papafox]

Last week TSLA managed to stay above 300 on the strength of buyers snapping up shares below that amount, but we forgot that Goldman Sachs' David Tamberrino was once again free to start FUDing again (he was restricted while Goldman sought investors in Tesla's privatization plans). For a chuckle, please see my post on the market action page today. Over the weekend, we learned about the Mercedes electric SUV and production beginning for an Audi EV, so of course the FUD du jour was that Tesla is about to be eaten alive by competition from real car companies, and Tamberrino wasted no time getting a downgrade out there. Tamberrino issues dire downgrades and warnings of the bottom falling out of TSLA 6 months down the road regularly, and a 4% decline in the SP is not uncommon when such FUD is unleashed upon the market. Thus, today's results. I also remind you that with positive cash flow pretty much inevitable for the second half of 2018, the shorts are putting on their biggest push we've seen in a long time and calling for all the assistance they can get from the all-too-wiling usual suspects.

TSLA selling by shorts reached 63.04% today, suggesting LOTS of manipulations

Looking at the technical chart, we can see that the lower bollinger band has been descending quickly, so its value today should not be relied upon as a support point. Instead, some of the technical traders at TMC say 280 has been a strong support price in the past and should again, if it is needed.

I would caution against trying to catch falling knives right now as there are indications we could see lower tomorrow before TSLA bottoms out. The after-market trading had a generally downward trend during the day. Further, the trading at 4pm was fairly light for such a day, suggesting the shorts are holding their positions opened during the day rather than covering, which could mean they believe there's more dip coming tomorrow. Once we truly have bottomed out, though, the time from bottom of dip to 3Q deliveries and production report and then to 3Q ER will be relatively short compared to the upside potential.

Conditions:
* Dow down 12 (0.05%)
* NASDAQ down 18 (0.23%)
* TSLA 288.95, down 12.71 (4.21%)
* TSLA volume 8.2M shares
* Oil 69.87, up 0.07 (0.10%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 63.04%

 

[shlokavica22]

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

~10% shorted stock was covered since the tweet.

What is interesting to me is that the price jump in the end of July didn't result in increase of the short position.
And since then the price/short position are both in a downward movement. Silent short covering?

 

[winfield100]

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

~10% shorted stock was covered since the tweet.

What is interesting to me is that the price jump in the end of July didn't result in increase of the short position.
And since then the price/short position are both in a downward movement. Silent short covering?

elephants quietly stampeding for the exits, leaving retail shorts to hold the bag of IOU's.....
39.1 million short on 5/31
31.83 million short on 9/4
down 18.6% in 3 months

 

[Papafox]

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

~10% shorted stock was covered since the tweet.

What is interesting to me is that the price jump in the end of July didn't result in increase of the short position.
And since then the price/short position are both in a downward movement. Silent short covering?

Yes, smarter shorts have been quietly tiptoeing to the exit. It's really been a case of the noise of SEC investigations and Elon's pedo talk covering up the otherwise positive news that Tesla is delivering record-breaking numbers of Model 3s this quarter. At some point the media will start mentioning the exit, which will likely speed it up and help with the SP recovery. I think the reason we see short interest dropping as the SP drops (which is contrary to historical patterns) is because of the 900 lb gorilla in the back of the room (the effects of Model 3 deliveries on Q3 free cash flow and profitability). Remember, a lot of shorts are smartish enough to be aware of the gorilla.

I found some extra change in the sofa and I've been buying today.

 

[shlokavica22]

Yes, smarter shorts have been quietly tiptoeing to the exit. It's really been a case of the noise of SEC investigations and Elon's pedo talk covering up the otherwise positive news that Tesla is delivering record-breaking numbers of Model 3s this quarter. At some point the media will start mentioning the exit, which will likely speed it up and help with the SP recovery. I think the reason we see short interest dropping as the SP drops (which is contrary to historical patterns) is because of the 900 lb gorilla in the back of the room (the effects of Model 3 deliveries on Q3 free cash flow and profitability). Remember, a lot of shorts are smartish enough to be aware of the gorilla.

Is it fair to assume that big player/players coordinate a short cover, by trying to suppress significant increase in the price? The negative news that are spread to come on a daily basis (market days) make sure the retail longs don't get on the way, while some retail shorts are lured to hold the bag.
If the above is true, that means no big long players get on the way as well. I find that interesting.

 

[Papafox]

Today was day 2 of the the Goldman downgrade/Elon pedo talk/below 300 dip. A few media sites picked up on the buzzfeed release of Elon's Thai caver further disclosure with a buzzfeed reporter who chose to publish "off the record" communications from Elon (make sure you get an agreement that it is off the record next time, Elon). With the NASDAQ down more than 1%, it was a perfect setup for a dip to TSLA's support price of $280, and so it happened. Judging from the dips and recoveries that took place most of the day, the manipulations by shorts were common today. They tried for a push below $280 in the final minutes but were defeated by equally-inspired buyers.

The game for the shorts now is to see if they can hold TSLA near 280 while they wait for a big macro dip, Elon tweeting or talking about the pedo guy again, or some perceived issue with the production line that would allow them to break through 280.

Elon will be appearing on the Joe Rogan podcast on Thursday at 9:30am Pacific time. The upside of this appearance is that Elon said he'd appear once Tesla is reliably producing over 5K Model 3s/wk. Here's a link to that comment. The downside of this appearance would be if Elon went into too much detail about his words with the Thai caver. I suggest checking out the podcast. These are usually long interviews, about 2 hours or so. You will be able to get the podcast here or you can download from itunes (Joe Rogan Experience podcast).

Today's big news was the InsideEVs August numbers. They estimate that Tesla sold an epic 17,800 Model 3s in August. Combine these sales with the takeaway from the Joe Rogan show appearance by Elon (5K/wk supposedly now in the bag) and the suggestion is that Tesla will be able to deliver some positive numbers in the 3Q ER. Other good news is that Tesla is now selling more vehicles in the U.S. than Mercedes, BMW, or Audi. For all these reasons, I managed to find some additional funds and did some buying today.

Conditions:
* Dow up 23 (0.09%)
* NASDAQ down 96 (1.19%)
* TSLA 280.74, down 8.21 (2.84%)
* TSLA volume 7.6M shares
* Oil 68.86, down 1.01 (1.45%)

 

[generalenthu]

View attachment 332215

Elon will be appearing on the Joe Rogan podcast on Thursday at 9:30am Pacific time.

9:30 PM PST is when it's scheduled

 

[Papafox]

9:30 PM PST is when it's scheduled

Thanks much for the correction!

 

[Papafox]

* Percentage of TSLA selling by shorts today: 61.69%, not far below yesterday's very high figure

Here's today's trading including after-market trades. 282.25 - 280.74 = 1.51 gain in after-hours trading. Thiis is a substantial gain in after-hours trading, suggesting there will be buying pressure tomorrow to help counteract the substantial efforts of the shorts to push things down. Hoping for green.

 

[Papafox]

Is it fair to assume that big player/players coordinate a short cover, by trying to suppress significant increase in the price? The negative news that are spread to come on a daily basis (market days) make sure the retail longs don't get on the way, while some retail shorts are lured to hold the bag.
If the above is true, that means no big long players get on the way as well. I find that interesting.

Shlokavica22, I believe there's more coordination between shorts and between shorts and the media and friendly analysts who cater to hedge funds than most people realize. For example, just as TSLA had successfully fended off attacks on the price $300 two days in a row on Thursday and Friday, on Monday Goldman released its semi-annual note claiming a 30% decline is coming over the next 6 months and $300 was history. Why did it happen on the critical day when TSLA may have actually turned around? Someone could say the release of the Mercedes electric vehicle was the inspiration for the Goldman note, but the timing always seems too coordinated, especially considering David Tamberrino's releasng another fright note on July 5, 2017. Another coincidence? I think not.

Shorts don't need to communicate in words, they can do so in actions. For example, today the clear objective was getting TSLA below 280. Any big short could look at the daily chart and figure out the goal. Look too at the timing of dips. Would you have bought the dip recovery at about 9:45am today? I wouldn't. There's just too much established pattern of shorts pushing hard into 10:30am that I don't trust recoveries much earlier in the morning. Again, it's manipulation, especially when you consider the tremendous quantity of short-selling and the neutral change in short interest.