Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[MP3Mike]

What this means for Tesla is if the price is above ~$360, Tesla owes 460M cash and suffers dilution of ~1.28M shares. If the price is below, Tesla owes ~921M cash.

Do they really suffer dilution, or do the shares come from their broker that sold the hedging?

Of course the real question is: is this accurate information? I don't recall seeing a 50/50 option in the bond documentation that people have posted. Can Tesla really just change the terms at will?

 

[Stormy]

Do they really suffer dilution, or do the shares come from their broker that sold the hedging?

Of course the real question is: is this accurate information? I don't recall seeing a 50/50 option in the bond documentation that people have posted. Can Tesla really just change the terms at will?

They do suffer the dilution. And this is within the terms of the prospectus. It specified that if anyone chooses to convert, Tesla will have three options:

1) convert to Shares -- at 2.7788 shares per $1000 bond. Effective price ~360. This option has tesla issuing new shares to cover their 920M debt.

2) convert to Cash - this option has Tesla paying the "value" of what converting to shares would be. Where value is determined by an average price calculation. In this case, Tesla would effectively pay back its 920M debt, and the rest whatever extra ''value" they have to pay would be covered by the hedge.

3) They do a combination of the above with shares and cash, where they specify how much cash they want to pay, and the rest is in shares. We now know they specified $500 per bond, and the rest in shares. Some of those shares must come from Tesla because its the remainder of their debt. Therefore, dilution. The rest (same as the extra "value" above) comes from the hedge, but this time, in the form of shares from the market.

 

[Papafox]

So, the plot thickens. Today was another strong day for TSLA vs. the broader markets. Thank you @Stormy for your post this evening about the March notes. Since TSLA plans to pay half cash for the notes (as long as it is above 360 during the important February dates), that move results in hundreds of millions of dollars remaining at the company's disposal after the March payment date, which is a good thing. I agree with Stormy that TSLA should be above 360 during the important reference dates in February (due to Q4 results), and this is all good news that should only help TSLA climb higher. We now understand why shorts were working so hard to keep TSLA below 360. Clearly, they saw it wasn't going to work. Looking at the percent of selling by shorts today, you can see a noticeable drop in their efforts to manipulate. Usually, we see the stock run higher when it is freed of this drag. Can't wait to find out. The shorts have been known to wait for a higher price and then resume their push for a downtrend when there are indications that the stock is vulnerable to their efforts, but as we get closer to the end of December, such a tactic becomes more and more risky, due to longs wanting to be in for the Q4 production and delivery numbers.

A big question arises about what happens tomorrow if it is a big up day for the broader markets. One possibility is that traders move some money into stocks which have seen their prices beaten down. Perhaps a day with rather neutral macros would serve TSLA best tomorrow, as such macro behavior would not encourage bargain hunting so much.

On the other hand, with TSLA above 360 today, some traders believe it has a clear path to a new ATH.

NASDAQ started the day down considerably, dipped at 11am, then managed to break into the green in the final half hour of trading. Notice the morning dip of TSLA coincided with the NASDAQ dip. Although TSLA is trading much better than the NASDAQ, it still responds to broader market ups and downs.

After 8 trading sessions near 60% selling by shorts, it is meaningful that selling by TSLA shorts fell below 55% today. The implication is that shorts have been defeated at 360 and we may feel less drag from their manipulations in the near future, which of course is positive for the stock price.

Looking at the technical chart, TSLA continues to probe above the upper bb during the day and close not far below it. If we close at better than 366 tomorrow, the 4th instance of the climb then descend pattern will be reestablished (even though the descent side of the pattern was broken). With upper bollinger band at 364.95, 366 should be within its reach tomorrow.


Conditions:
* Dow down 79 (0.32%)
* NASDAQ up 30 (0.42%)
* TSLA 363.06, up 3.36 (0.93%)
* TSLA volume 7.8M shares
* Oil 50.93, down 0.56 (1.09%)
* Percent to TSLA selling by shorts: 54.12%

 

[Papafox]

Friday's report is coming late Saturday. Life is bz at moment. Thx!

 

[AudubonB]

In the interest of not double-posting, I won't repeat what I wrote on November 9th!!!!!

 

[moonfresh]

What happened smart people? We were up as high as $378ish. Was it the shorts that manipulated down to $357? My calls were looking so good.

 

[SpaceCash]

What happened smart people? We were up as high as $378ish. Was it the shorts that manipulated down to $357? My calls were looking so good.

We're definitely not just fine, but looking great. AVG transaction price today was 370.
Squeeze on deck. Buckle up

 

[defc0n]

What happened smart people? We were up as high as $378ish. Was it the shorts that manipulated down to $357? My calls were looking so good.

Macros happened

 

[Papafox]

Wow, what a week. On Friday, TSLA was already pushing 370 in pre-market and exceeded 378 at its 10:05am high. Causes for this optimism included:
* Tesla's decision to pay half cash, half shares for the March notes, giving Tesla an extra half billion dollars or so in available capital
* TSLA closing above 360 on Thursday, strongly suggesting that TSLA will be well above 360 during Feb days for determining how March notes will be handled
* Reports of strong Tesla production. Tweeter Vicky Salvador, who has worked in the paint shop in Fremont is talking about new records being broken. Since paint does S,X,&3, 1300 vehicles in 24 hours is a huge increase in production (think 1000 M3/day plus 300 S&X day). Let's see how soon those numbers can become long-term sustainable
* Jeffreys upgraded TSLA from 360 and hold to 450 and buy
* TSLA has shown incredible resilience during a week with the Dow down more than 1000 pts and NASDAQ doing similarly bad
* Some short-seller margin calls are almost certainly generating covering
* TSLA is being perceived by some as a safe-harbor stock during the downturn and is drawing investors for this reason

Alas, TSLA set itself up for short-seller manipulations on Friday because of the following weaknesses:
* NASDAQ continued to dive deeply throughout the day
* High of day was reached shortly after 10:00am, leaving lots of time for a dip
* Upper bollinger band was only approximately at 366 and TSLA has shown strong tendency to sink below the upper bb before closings

With the exception of the final hour of market trading, TSLA was on a downward trajectory throughout Friday and closed down more than 3%. Tech stocks I follow closed down between 3.5% and 6.75% today.

Shorts did 56.16% of TSLA selling on Friday, up a bit from Thursday because manipulating looked like easy money to shorts with TSLA so high so early in day, well above upper bollinger band, and macros crashing. Once the easy money situations disappear, I would expect to see percent of selling number decrease further as shorts become even more disheartened.

Max pain was at 357.50 today

Here's how I think Friday's trading evolved. TSLA couldn't hold 378 for several reasons and slipped to 373ish by 1:00pm. I've seen lots of plays that I attribute to the shorts begin right on the hour and this one fit the pattern. TSLA started down even though the NASDAQ was actually climbing a bit until about 1:10pm. Once the NASDAQ started dipping again and the shorts were selling during the slow afternoon hours a smooth transition to a descent began. Shorts really wanted to continue the descent into the red and you can see that volume picked up as TSLA approached the red and we saw a game of whack-the-mole near the red/green line of approximately 363 for most of the rest of the afternoon. With about 20 minutes of market trading left, TSLA dipped into the red and then accelerated the dip. I think this dip was a combination of shorts pushing down like they've done most the week near closing and market makers pushing down to get TSLA as close to the 357.50 max pain price as possible. They came within 50 cents of that target. Over 300,000 shares traded in the final minute of the day, which suggests lots of covering by the day-trading short manipulators.

TSLA outperformed the broader markets again today by a wide margin, and one should not be too disappointed by Friday's trading because the deck was truly stacked against TSLA for holding that 378 price. As soon as the macros moderate, TSLA looks ready to regain this lost ground. While TSLA regularly repeats the pattern of exploring well above the upper bollinger band and closing below it, today's strong trading suggests that pattern itself may go by the wayside. Hard to tell. In the meantime, I'm expecting to see the upper bb keep climbing and giving TSLA more room to run. Whether we set a new All Time High before or after the end of 2018, I think it's going to happen because all of the efforts of Tesla over the years are finally coming together. We will see strong Q4 production and deliveries, we will see good Q4 profit and cash flow numbers, and I think we'll see impressive guidance for 2019 in the Q4 report.

Dusaniwsky's latest report shows that short interest remains at around $10 billion, even though lots of covering has taken place in recent weeks. The implication is that fewer and fewer shorts are on the hook for covering that $10 billion tab. It's going to turn very ugly for the remaining shorts at some point, and this reality suggest the possibility of a mini-squeeze as shorts scramble to get out on a particularly high-trading day for TSLA.

I've heard reports of some brokerage houses not making shares of TSLA available to shorts lately, even though they surely have the shares available, as Dusaniwsky alludes to. One possibility? Perhaps the houses see the possibility of a squeeze being set up and wish to minimize their exposure to shorts who might not be able to extract themselves whole, perhaps shorts whose long investments have taken a recent beating. Keep an eye on the availability of shares to short next week. All this talk must only make shorts more nervous, which only increases the possibility of a substantial buying panic taking place. No doubt macros will play a role in whether we ever see some type of squeeze.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see about $8 of headroom between the stock price and the upper bollinger band for Monday's open. Normally, a descent such as Friday's would signal further descent of a stock, but with TSLA so much stronger than the macros, alternate interpretations are available.

For the week, TSLA closed at 357.96, up 7.48 from last Friday's 350.48. When you consider the DOW was down 1000 pts for the week and the NASDAQ fared no better, it was a remarkable performance by TSLA. Have a good weekend. Exciting days lay ahead.

Conditions:
* Dow down 559 (2.24%)
* NASDAQ down 219 (3.05%)
* TSLA 357.96, down 5.10 (1.40%)
* TSLA volume 11.5M shares
* Oil 52.61, up 1.12 (2.18%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 56.16%

 

[jschwefel]

View attachment 359246
Wow, what a week. On Friday, TSLA was already pushing 370 in pre-market and exceeded 378 at its 10:05am high. Causes for this optimism included:
* Tesla's decision to pay half cash, half shares for the March notes, giving Tesla an extra half billion dollars or so in available capital
* TSLA closing above 360 on Thursday, strongly suggesting that TSLA will be well above 360 during Feb days for determining how March notes will be handled
* Reports of strong Tesla production. Tweeter Vicky Salvador, who has worked in the paint shop in Fremont is talking about new records being broken. Since paint does S,X,&3, 1300 vehicles in 24 hours is a huge increase in production (think 1000 M3/day plus 300 S&X day). Let's see how soon those numbers can become long-term sustainable
* Jeffreys upgraded TSLA from 360 and hold to 450 and buy
* TSLA has shown incredible resilience during a week with the Dow down more than 1000 pts and NASDAQ doing similarly bad
* Some short-seller margin calls are almost certainly generating covering
* TSLA is being perceived by some as a safe-harbor stock during the downturn and is drawing investors for this reason

Alas, TSLA set itself up for short-seller manipulations on Friday because of the following weaknesses:
* NASDAQ continued to dive deeply throughout the day
* High of day was reached shortly after 10:00am, leaving lots of time for a dip
* Upper bollinger band was only approximately at 366 and TSLA has shown strong tendency to sink below the upper bb before closings

View attachment 359248
With the exception of the final hour of market trading, TSLA was on a downward trajectory throughout Friday and closed down more than 3%. Tech stocks I follow closed down between 3.5% and 6.75% today.

View attachment 359249
Shorts did 56.16% of TSLA selling on Friday, up a bit from Thursday because manipulating looked like easy money to shorts with TSLA so high so early in day, well above upper bollinger band, and macros crashing. Once the easy money situations disappear, I would expect to see percent of selling number decrease further as shorts become even more disheartened.

View attachment 359503
Max pain was at 357.50 today

Here's how I think Friday's trading evolved. TSLA couldn't hold 378 for several reasons and slipped to 373ish by 1:00pm. I've seen lots of plays that I attribute to the shorts begin right on the hour and this one fit the pattern. TSLA started down even though the NASDAQ was actually climbing a bit until about 1:10pm. Once the NASDAQ started dipping again and the shorts were selling during the slow afternoon hours a smooth transition to a descent began. Shorts really wanted to continue the descent into the red and you can see that volume picked up as TSLA approached the red and we saw a game of whack-the-mole near the red/green line of approximately 363 for most of the rest of the afternoon. With about 20 minutes of market trading left, TSLA dipped into the red and then accelerated the dip. I think this dip was a combination of shorts pushing down like they've done most the week near closing and market makers pushing down to get TSLA as close to the 357.50 max pain price as possible. They came within 50 cents of that target. Over 300,000 shares traded in the final minute of the day, which suggests lots of covering by the day-trading short manipulators.

TSLA outperformed the broader markets again today by a wide margin, and one should not be too disappointed by Friday's trading because the deck was truly stacked against TSLA for holding that 378 price. As soon as the macros moderate, TSLA looks ready to regain this lost ground. While TSLA regularly repeats the pattern of exploring well above the upper bollinger band and closing below it, today's strong trading suggests that pattern itself may go by the wayside. Hard to tell. In the meantime, I'm expecting to see the upper bb keep climbing and giving TSLA more room to run. Whether we set a new All Time High before or after the end of 2018, I think it's going to happen because all of the efforts of Tesla over the years are finally coming together. We will see strong Q4 production and deliveries, we will see good Q4 profit and cash flow numbers, and I think we'll see impressive guidance for 2019 in the Q4 report.

View attachment 359247
Dusaniwsky's latest report shows that short interest remains at around $10 billion, even though lots of covering has taken place in recent weeks. The implication is that fewer and fewer shorts are on the hook for covering that $10 billion tab. It's going to turn very ugly for the remaining shorts at some point, and this reality suggest the possibility of a mini-squeeze as shorts scramble to get out on a particularly high-trading day for TSLA.

View attachment 359502
I've heard reports of some brokerage houses not making shares of TSLA available to shorts lately, even though they surely have the shares available, as Dusaniwsky alludes to. One possibility? Perhaps the houses see the possibility of a squeeze being set up and wish to minimize their exposure to shorts who might not be able to extract themselves whole, perhaps shorts whose long investments have taken a recent beating. Keep an eye on the availability of shares to short next week. All this talk must only make shorts more nervous, which only increases the possibility of a substantial buying panic taking place. No doubt macros will play a role in whether we ever see some type of squeeze.

View attachment 359250
Looking at the technical chart, you can see about $8 of headroom between the stock price and the upper bollinger band for Monday's open. Normally, a descent such as Friday's would signal further descent of a stock, but with TSLA so much stronger than the macros, alternate interpretations are available.

For the week, TSLA closed at 357.96, up 7.48 from last Friday's 350.48. When you consider the DOW was down 1000 pts for the week and the NASDAQ fared no better, it was a remarkable performance by TSLA. Have a good weekend. Exciting days lay ahead.

Conditions:
* Dow down 559 (2.24%)
* NASDAQ down 219 (3.05%)
* TSLA 357.96, down 5.10 (1.40%)
* TSLA volume 11.5M shares
* Oil 52.61, up 1.12 (2.18%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 56.16%

Wow, Papafox! You provide the best stock analysis I’ve ever read, paid or unpaid. Your contributions to this forum are prICELESS. Thank you!

 

[Papafox]

Wow, Papafox! You provide the best stock analysis I’ve ever read, paid or unpaid. Your contributions to this forum are prICELESS. Thank you!

Thank you for the nice comment. Please keep in mind that I use analysis that is mostly of my own invention and it has not been exposed to long-term scrutiny. Certain well-known technical analysis methods have withstood the test of time and have already proven themselves valuable. For these reasons, I hope all of you consider my posts as just one of many views of TSLA as you make your investing decisions.

In investing in a stock with rapidly-changing prospects for the future, there's lots of short-term uncertainty. This is why my option plays tend to be long-term, in this case J20s. Look at the macros, for instance. They could change for the better on a dime if China and the U.S. announce substantial progress on the trade war. OTOH, macros could get even worse if certain discoveries are made in the Mueller investigation. I can simultaneously say TSLA looks fantastic for the future and also say nothing can be depended upon in the short term. Invest wisely.

 

[Papafox]

TSLA at last caught a break from the negative macros today and gained over 7 points by close. It was the kind of trading that TSLA does best at: afternoon climbs that continue right up to close and never give the shorts a good opportunity to engineer a dip into close.

Part of the reason for TSLA's excellent showing today was a note released by respected Piper Jaffray analyst Craig Johnson, who suggested that if TSLA climbs above $390, it could set off a short squeeze that could take the stock to $525 to $550. Suggest a note suggests the possibility of a huge upside still available to TSLA in the shortish term, and this news certainly drew some investors today.

Many TMC followers were concerned about Elon's comment that he doesn't respect the SEC during Sunday's 60 Minutes show, but the market shrugged off the comment.He also balanced that comment with one about respect for the justice system and pretty effectively made the point he was trying for without coming off as a loose canon. One explanation is that Elon's behavior has been tame lately and with Tesla's recent successes, the market is more accepting of a non-conventional CEO when the stock performance is this good versus when the stock price is hurting.

In the final minute of market trading, 145,000 shares traded hands, suggesting a fair quantity of the daily short manipulators were covering here. I would add "at a loss" because of the climb into closing and no time to buy lower for manipulations in the afternoon. I captured this screen shot to give you a better feel for high and low volume points because the volume lines all get squashed once the big final minute volume is posted.Notice how high the volume was on those downward stabs that pulled TSLA down. In particular, 48K shares were sold at 9:52, and 55K at 11:06-11:07. I suspect you know who.

The NASDAQ gained about 3/4 of a point today, compared to TSLA's 2. If you compare the two charts you will see TSLA mirroring most of the NASDAQ's moves today, but remaining higher and more volatile than the broader market.

Shorts did 55.83% of TSLA selling today, suggesting last week's 60% levels have dropped to a somewhat more modest (but still high) 55% range. A drop in percent of TSLA sold by shorts indicates less manipulations by shorts, and a better environment for TSLA to trade positively.

Looking at the tech chart, you can see that TSLA took advantage of that nice headroom between itself and the upper bollinger band and gained 7 points on a day with positive macros. That headroom has now shrunk to about 3. One positive scenario is that TSLA slowly marches upward with the upper bb until Q4 data is released, at which time it jumps up to a whole higher price of trading. Things seldom happen so smoothly with TSLA, however, so instead we're more likely to see a mix of exuberant up days interspersed between a smaller number of big down days. It's gonna be fun to see how it plays out in December, but the real fun more likely starts in January. I wouldn't sit on the sidelines, though, as timing with TSLA is usually difficult.

Conditions:
* Dow up 34 (0.14%)
* NASDAQ up 50 (0.74%)
* TSLA 365.15, up 7.18 (2.01%)
* TSLA volume 6.6M shares
* Oil 51.08, up 0.08 (0.16%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 55.83%

 

[JeffreyY]

“I suspect you know who”

He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named

 

[Papafox]

Today was a day with good Tesla news and macros that opened high and then sank as the day progressed. This could normally be a difficult macro environment for Tesla as traders look for bargains elsewhere in the morning and then shorts try to add steroids to the dip in the afternoon. Alas, TSLA came out of it ok. Lots of short manipulations are likely with over 250K share trading in the first and last minutes of the market day (the times when covering typically yields no real movement to the SP) and over 58% of TSLA selling being done by shorts today.

The day began with lots of interest in TSLA buying and pre-market trading stretching from 370 to 372.50. Alas, the shorts manufactured a mandatory morning dip on no news and no significant macro dip, and it bottomed out at 10:46am, a typical bottom timing for recent dips. Not too surprisingly, buyers took advantage of the sale and brought TSLA back up to the red/green line, then TSLA took off like a Falcon 9 and topped 371 in short order. Unfortunately, that price was above the upper bollinger band, and between the above the upper-bb-vulnerability and the descending macros, shorts marched the stock slowly down to the red/green line for a few volleys of whack-the-mole and then buyers returned and TSLA managed to top 370 again at one point. The NASDAQ began a fairly steep descent about 25 minutes before closing, TSLA resisted following for the first 15 minutes, but between the falling NASDAQ, some ETF funds being rebalanced by algos, and of course some pushing by the shorts, TSLA did an impressive swan dive in the final 10 minutes of mariet trading. Notice that in after-hours trading, traders removed much of the losses caused by the final ten minutes and TSLA closed above 368.

Here's a summary of today's good news for TSLA:
* Sources say that China has agreed to reduce import tariffs on vehicles from 40% to 15%. Although this news has come out before, most recently in a general statement from Trump, the reduction looks real and should significantly affect demand for M3 in Q1 19 and onwards.
* Tesla plans to raise $837 million in asset-backed funding for leasing, suggesting that a lease option for Model 3 is coming and Model 3 leasing will open up significant additional demand for the vehicle, including the longer range, higher-optioned versions.
* Elon clarified his 60 Minutes comments, revealing they were not as controversial as appeared in the edits
* Elon tweeted about a Q4 cancellations waitlist that allows wannabe buyers to sign up for a Model 3 delivery in Q4 if cancellations allow but not be on the hook financially if a car cannot be delivered in the quarter. The tweet suggests both that Tesla has sold out expected Q4 Model 3 production and is taking steps to maximize deliveries in the quarter, to account for cancellations, excess production, etc.

The best news? Check out the technical chart discussion.

The descending NASDAQ put pressure on TSLA but it showed strength all the same.

Shorts were tagged with 58.14% of TSLA selling today, up noticeably from the past three days and getting back into 60ish territory.

Looking at the technical chart, check out today's closing price of 366.76 compared to the short, unsustainable excursion to 366 in the previous climb segment. In each of the climb segments TSLA has closed above the highest excursion price of the previous segment. If this pattern remains in force, the next segment will include a close above the 379 we saw on Friday (and higher if we get a higher excursion in this climb segment). TSLA has about $4 in headroom below the upper bb right now, so with a little growth of that upper bb tomorrow there's a setup for a nice climb.

Again, I look at December as positioning for the early January production and delivery report. Between that report and the 4Q ER (with guidance for 2019), the real fun will begin. Let's hope we can continue to carry $10 billion in shares shorted to that party.

Conditions:
* Dow down 53 (0.22%)
* NASDAQ up 11 (0.15%)
* TSLA 366.76, up 1.61 (0.44%)
* TSLA volume 6.3M shares
* Oil 52.02, up 0.37 (0.72%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 58.14%

 

[cousinHub]

The Nasdaq released the official "Short Interest" data for $TSLA at the end of November :

https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest…

Another 1.4M shares covered by the shorts over the last 2 weeks (as of Nov 30th)! This brings the total to 11.7M covered since end of May 2018.

=> We can say now that the 3rd onslaught on $TSLA stock has been defeated (see my charts below).

As you can see, there has been 3 major attacks by the shorts (I define them as large increases (>10M or more) in short interest over a short period of time) since 2014...

How to read the charts below?

* Volume bars at the bottom of the chart = short interest increases (red) or decreases (green) => scale on the right.

* The blue line is Tesla Stock Price.

* The red lines over the stock price show at what average level the shorts increased their position

* The green lines over the stock price show at what average level the shorts decreased their position

 

[sunhelm]

As you can see, there has been 3 major attacks by the shorts (I define them as large increases (>10M or more) in short interest over a short period of time) since 2014...

So it looks like all the major shorts are underwater at current SP of ~366.66 (just added more 6's for scare effect).

Also, I can count very few incidences where they covered lower than their sell point (Green almost always higher than red ). Should we tell them how this is supposed to work to make money?

 

[Utahken]

@Papafox do you think the shorts coordinate their mischief based on a specific time or some formula so they can force a larger dip? Similar to other coordinated collusions that have been discovered in the past ( ie you get the customer sales on this date based on the phase of the moon and I get the sales on the other days )

 

[Papafox]

Today was a low volume, neutral day for TSLA. On the one hand, the NASDAQ closing up nearly 1% and being up considerably more during mid-day suggests some pressure on TSLA today as some traders would move money into stocks beaten down recently and more certain to rise with the NASDAQ. Shorts doing a clear mandatory morning dip and tagged with about 57% of the selling would round out the downward pressure. Balancing this negative pressure was an apparent entry of more retail buyers (judging from the 369-371 pre-market trading prices) and a price target increase by analyst Colin Rusch. All told, it was a pretty meh day for TSLA.

The significant dip going into close could indeed have involved some low-volume horseplay by the shorts, particularly with the NASDAQ dipping during this time. Curt Renz suggests in the market trading thread that day-traders exiting their positions prior to close on this low-volume day could also have been the cause of the dip in the final minutes. Certainly a day trader buying the dips into the red and selling at peaks would have done well today.

* News- Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer reiterated a buy rating and set $418 as his target. We're seeing lots of upgrades now to a price centered around the infamous "420" which gives about 14% upside to someone entering TSLA around 368

A thanks to @cousinHub for the very helpful depiction of short interest over the past few years.

The NASDAQ closed up nearly 1% today and was up considerably more mid-day. TSLA trading showed low correlation with NASDAQ trading, with the exception of the day's final dip.

Shorts did 56.86% of the TSLA selling today, a relatively high number suggesting plenty of manipulations

Looking at the tech chart, one takeaway is today's neutral performance allowed the gap between stock price and upper bollinger band to widen to a small gap of about 5.5, giving a little more room to run tomorrow but also suggesting that TSLA is doing what is perhaps the healthiest thing for the stock to do in these weeks prior to the release of Q4 production and delivery data, which is to creep higher with the rising upper bb to be positioned well for the potential fireworks of early January (Q4 P&D report) and early February (Q4 ER). The problem with a big rise on no substantial news right now would be the selling of that big rise and establishment of a downtrend. It's better to wait for the big good news for that big rise.

Conditions:
* Dow up 157 (0.64%)
* NASDAQ up 66 (0.95%)
* TSLA 366.60, down 0.16 (0.04%)
* TSLA volume 5.0M shares
* Oil 51.38, up 0.23 (0.45%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 56.86%

 

[neroden]

The Nasdaq released the official "Short Interest" data for $TSLA at the end of November :

https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest…

Another 1.4M shares covered by the shorts over the last 2 weeks (as of Nov 30th)! This brings the total to 11.7M covered since end of May 2018.

=> We can say now that the 3rd onslaught on $TSLA stock has been defeated (see my charts below).

As you can see, there has been 3 major attacks by the shorts (I define them as large increases (>10M or more) in short interest over a short period of time) since 2014...

View attachment 360317

How to read the charts below?

* Volume bars at the bottom of the chart = short interest increases (red) or decreases (green) => scale on the right.

* The blue line is Tesla Stock Price.

* The red lines over the stock price show at what average level the shorts increased their position

* The green lines over the stock price show at what average level the shorts decreased their position

View attachment 360318 View attachment 360319 View attachment 360320

Super helpful, thanks very much. Very interesting. I regretted being on vacation during that first short-induced dip; I bought everything I could during the second one, and I got a little more during the third one.

 

[Papafox]

TSLA at 376, anyone? It was a good day for the stock with moderate volume and mixed macros. We saw lots of ups and downs of TSLA today as longs and shorts played a tug-of-war with the stock, starting with a lively mandatory morning dip. Around 2:25pm TSLA appeared to be falling over a cliff as sellers exploited the low volume environment, but shortly thereafter the NASDAQ began a recovery and TSLA kicked into afterburner and climbed almost non-stop until close. My inclination is to believe the shorts began their dip into close a bit too early and when the NASDAQ reversed it opened the floodgates for buying.

The biggest likely catalyst was the addition of two more analyst price targets in the mid 400s to compliment last week's Jeffrey's price target upgrade to $450.
* Wedbush initiated coverage of Tesla today with a $440 price target
* Baird's Ben Kallo hiked his TSLA target to $465, implying 27% upside to the stock in the coming 12 months

The importance of the price target increases is that they characterize TSLA's current prices as excellent entry prices for these targets instead of buying at the top of the historical trading range. When you're focused on $450, $375 doesn't look so high any more.

The NASDAQ sagged midday and closed down 0.39%. Notice the recovery of TSLA around 2:30pm or so coincided with the NASDAQ's recovery timing.

TSLA is now getting uncomfortably close to its all time high in the 380s and it is signalling that it is approaching breakout levels. This is a reason for the all hands on deck response by the shorts today, who apparently are willing to risk losing money in daily manipulations but believe they need to stop this continued rally before it runs away. Fortunately for them, the FUD is starting to increase. Expect a battle as shorts see a reversal to a downtrend as overdue and longs see a breakout to the high side coming.

Despite significant gains to TSLA throughout the day, shorts still sold a robust 58% of TSLA today, suggesting lots of attempted manipulations. Nearly 300,000 shares traded hands in the first and final minutes of market trading, suggesting shorts reloading for/after their daily short selling efforts.

The decline in short interest has leveled off in recent weeks, according to Ihor Dusaniwsy

Chartists around the globe are scrambling to interpret the rare "triple cat pattern" spotted in TSLA's chart today

Looking at the tech chart, today's 10 point gain brings TSLA to a close a few pennies above the upper bollinger band. No worries, the upper bb is now climbing about $3 per day, thanks to recent big days, and we'll have a little headroom available for Friday's trading.

Conditions:
* Dow up 70 (0.29%)
* NASDAQ down 28 (0.39%)
* TSLA 376.79, up 10.19 (2.79%)
* TSLA volume 7.4M shares
* Oil 52.39, down 0.19 (0.36%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 58.22%