Peak oil by 2030?

[mspohr]

ThinkProgress has an interesting article by Joe Romm which has an interesting analysis which states that peak oil demand will be in 2030. It looks at trends in the transportation sector.
Peak Oil Returns: Why Demand Will Likely Peak By 2030 | ThinkProgress

OECD oil and coal consumption are dropping... the rest of the world follow on.

Interesting part of the article also states that China is currently the largest manufacturer of electric vehicles (about 35,000 a month at the end of 2015 and predicted to double in 2016 and 2017).

 

[flankspeed8]

If I was betting, I would say it will happen sooner than that.

 

[Ohm Alone]

Joe Romm is right as he usually is. The 'peak' idea (of anything) has long been misunderstood as being the maximum production point ever, beyond which it drops off inexorably. More correctly, it should be understood as the 'maximum output ever at the price you want or are willing to pay'.

So it is not only that a commodity disappears or declines in availability. If conventional oil is $50 a barrel, but it is declining in availability at that price, 'peak oil' has been reached, irrespective of whether huge amounts of tight oil via fracking or oil sands is available as a viable industrial concern at $100 a barrel. Can be used for the same ends, but they are entirely different 'things'. Similarly if aged maple or oak at $50 a cord shoots to $150 due to scarcity you have reached 'peak hardwood firewood', not 'peak firewood' If green pine or poplar is available at $15 a cord, its not the 'same thing' at all, because you will need 2 buy 4 cords @ $15 to replace 1 cord @ $50, split 4 times as many logs, and get the chimney swept likely 3 times as often, which costs $$$. So, poplar and pine will never be able to charge $50 per cord.

The price squeeze can work in different ways, and this is the very grim near future of 'oil'. If $50 was 'historical', and $100 is the 'new viable' for non-conventional, then only $25-30 conventional oil will succeed from 'new' sources, like Iran and a chastened Saudi Arabia needing cash flow, and willing to take a hit on income to get market share--and do in the competition. BUT, if electricity can replace oil to move vehicles, and it can do it for the equivalent of $10 a barrel oil or less, even if you have to 'refill' more often and apparently at first glance for the uninitiated you also lose 'some' time, then oil can never aspire to $50 or $100 ever again, and is stuck at $25 which is only viable for anyone for short periods. So, 'peak oil' is reached not on long line-ups for rationed high price products, but on a sea of excess low priced oversupply.

Oil is mortally wounded now, but like the dinosaur it takes a while before the legs realize the head is dying.

 

[mspohr]

Joe Romm is right as he usually is. The 'peak' idea (of anything) has long been misunderstood as being the maximum production point ever, beyond which it drops off inexorably. More correctly, it should be understood as the 'maximum output ever at the price you want or are willing to pay'.

So it is not only that a commodity disappears or declines in availability. If conventional oil is $50 a barrel, but it is declining in availability at that price, 'peak oil' has been reached, irrespective of whether huge amounts of tight oil via fracking or oil sands is available as a viable industrial concern at $100 a barrel. Can be used for the same ends, but they are entirely different 'things'. Similarly if aged maple or oak at $50 a cord shoots to $150 due to scarcity you have reached 'peak hardwood firewood', not 'peak firewood' If green pine or poplar is available at $15 a cord, its not the 'same thing' at all, because you will need 2 buy 4 cords @ $15 to replace 1 cord @ $50, split 4 times as many logs, and get the chimney swept likely 3 times as often, which costs $$$. So, poplar and pine will never be able to charge $50 per cord.

The price squeeze can work in different ways, and this is the very grim near future of 'oil'. If $50 was 'historical', and $100 is the 'new viable' for non-conventional, then only $25-30 conventional oil will succeed from 'new' sources, like Iran and a chastened Saudi Arabia needing cash flow, and willing to take a hit on income to get market share--and do in the competition. BUT, if electricity can replace oil to move vehicles, and it can do it for the equivalent of $10 a barrel oil or less, even if you have to 'refill' more often and apparently at first glance for the uninitiated you also lose 'some' time, then oil can never aspire to $50 or $100 ever again, and is stuck at $25 which is only viable for anyone for short periods. So, 'peak oil' is reached not on long line-ups for rationed high price products, but on a sea of excess low priced oversupply.

Oil is mortally wounded now, but like the dinosaur it takes a while before the legs realize the head is dying.

Peak "whale oil" occurred not because they ran out of whales (fortunately) but because they ran out of customers... it was too expensive and alternatives were available.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Peak oil happened a while back. This is just the flailing about portion of the slow death.

 

[SwisSojourners]

Great new short video production from Bloomberg Business: The Peak Oil Myth and the Rise of the Electric Car

 

[nwdiver]

Great new short video production from Bloomberg Business: The Peak Oil Myth and the Rise of the Electric Car

The next ~10 years is going to be very very interesting. IMO this is going to be the biggest economic shakeup in history.

I live in the oil patch. I fully expect that if I don't sell my home in the next ~5 years I will have to write it off as a complete loss... and I'm ok with that.