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Peak Oil

Discussion in 'Energy, Environment, and Policy' started by tonybelding, Sep 17, 2007.

  1. tonybelding

    tonybelding Active Member

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  2. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    #2 vfx, Jan 15, 2009
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2009
  3. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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  4. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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  5. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    #6 vfx, Mar 28, 2010
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2010
  6. TEG

    TEG TMC Moderator

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  7. TEG

    TEG TMC Moderator

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  8. jaanton

    jaanton Roadster NA #1026

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    reverse oil war

    Consider an oil war where the agreement is that the Saudi's and the rest of the world agree to keep using oil until it runs out at about the same time. From a supply/demand perspective, neither wants to run out first because running out means you are at the mercy of the other.
     
  9. kgb

    kgb Member

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    Hard to tell if this is a parody or mental illness. There was so much oil in this presentation that Jesus was drenched in it!
     
  10. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    Consider the source.

    They might be cooking the books to back up their demand for more deep water, national park, and shale operations.
     
  11. Alfred

    Alfred Member

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    How much there is underground is currently not decisive. In the short to medium term there is probably just not enough production capacity in relation to anticipated demand. It is not possible to expand production significantly at short notice. In economic language: Supply is inelastic. Apart from the question whether you would like to blow all those reserves into the atmosphere, a peak oil situation could therefore emerge over the medium term, regardless of all other good or not so good intentions. The details of this are well explained in the following (voluminous) study:
    http://www.odac-info.org/sites/default/files/The%20Peak%20Oil%20Market.pdf
     
  12. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    Good writeup.
    http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse/chapter-17a-peak-oil
     
  13. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6169

     
  14. cinergi

    cinergi Active Member

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    ... assuming the same source-to-wheel efficiency, sure. Charging BEVs to travel as many miles as ICE vehicles requires less (how much? I'm sure someone here knows) energy.
     
  15. SByer

    SByer '08 #383

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    2000x for alternative energy sources sounds like a lot until you realize that it doesn't take that long if you have a healthy CAGR. It's 30 years at 30% annual growth - 30% is what wind power grew by globally in 2010. China is investing enough in alternative energy to make that reasonably attainable.

    No, not going to be fun getting there, but it doesn't mean we can't. To bad the US isn't planning ahead or investing enough in the future. Actually, just phase out subsidies on oil and coal and I bet the free market would take care of most of the rest.
     
  16. Alfred

    Alfred Member

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    A modern nuclear station might be sized to around 1500 MW and could produce then 13 TWh/y.
    10 million b/d correspond to 500 million tons of oil per year. Taking that as an energy equivalent, with one ton of oil equivalent holding 11.7 MWh, we get an annual call for 5850 TWh, or what 450 of those stations could produce. If used only for road transport, considering efficiency, you would end up with on the order of 45 new stations. This is still too high of course, because crude oil has to be refined and not all of it can be stuffed into cars. So at the most 20 new mid-sized station or perhaps 10 larger ones are closer to reality.
    Further details about such estimates can be found on my pages.
     

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