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Pictures of production Model 3s

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A trip to the factory. Got to see my first model 3 in person. Red with aero wheels looked really good.

DSCN0766.jpg
 
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How many employees did you think will order these expensive sedans? You can count out the low paid factory workers (6000 in Fremont factory alone) and low level mechanics/sales/other staff. Also count out employees outside CA and Reno.How many of them can charge at home vs. live in apartments/condos?
How many employees are in the market for a new electric car right now? Who will compensate them to get rid of their previous car if they aren't in the market? What percent of people buy sedan vs. CUV/SUV/pick up? How many of these stretched out buyers lease vs. buy? How many of the remaining want to buy exactly this car, a very specific BEV?

If you do all those calculations, 1-2% of Tesla+SpaceX employees BUYING an M3 within 3-6 month tops.
1% - 2% seems really low. I know that half of the employees at my local SC reserved one, if even half of them follow through that's 25%.
 
1% - 2% seems really low. I know that half of the employees at my local SC reserved one, if even half of them follow through that's 25%.
If you consider just another 4 criteria (wanting long range, PUP, afford it, not in current automotive financial obligation, etc) at a 50% probability each, it does narrow it down to 2%.

Example:
100% pre-ordered
1/2 don't follow through with order for any reason (maybe decide to wait for Model Y). down to 50%
1/2 remainder don't want LR, can't afford it, any reason - down to 25%
1/2 remainder don't wan't PUP, down to 12.5%
1/2 remainder are waiting for AWD, 6.25%
1/2 haven't saved up enough of a down payment yet, ~3%
1/2 Just aren't ready to buy it yet, still in a lease/loan/etc, 1.5% left
 
Why are the VIN numbers still so low? hmmmmm. There should be hundreds lined up for delivery. ( unless they are already delivered ).

Do the Employees not want these cars? or....are they already employee's cars and they are just parking them at work?

2017 Model 3 Production | line chart made by Jwqrbozs | plotly

Based on this production estimator, VIN 173 would have been produced around Aug. 31st

Considering it has already been delivered, I would say Tesla is right on track so far.
 

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How many employees did you think will order these expensive sedans? You can count out the low paid factory workers (6000 in Fremont factory alone) and low level mechanics/sales/other staff. Also count out employees outside CA and Reno.How many of them can charge at home vs. live in apartments/condos?
How many employees are in the market for a new electric car right now? Who will compensate them to get rid of their previous car if they aren't in the market? What percent of people buy sedan vs. CUV/SUV/pick up? How many of these stretched out buyers lease vs. buy? How many of the remaining want to buy exactly this car, a very specific BEV?

If you do all those calculations, 1-2% of Tesla+SpaceX employees BUYING an M3 within 3-6 month tops.

For those who don't know "mmd" is a rabid TSLA short who takes a negative view on all things Tesla and desperately wants the company to fail. Weigh his comments accordingly.
 
Why are the VIN numbers still so low? hmmmmm. There should be hundreds lined up for delivery. ( unless they are already delivered ).

Do the Employees not want these cars? or....are they already employee's cars and they are just parking them at work?

the red #141 has the temporary CA DMV registration on the windshield so that was already delivered to the employee. that part of the parking lot at factory is for employees with teslas.
 
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Just thinking and wondering .......

Regarding the estimates above pertaining to the number of employees that will order .....
I'd imagine the number would be higher than anticipated.
Surely, some employees will order, then sell to family?
Surely, some will order and sell on the open market?

Human nature would seem to dictate that if you have what so many want ... the conditions are ripe for selling at a profit.
Tesla may have prohibited a resale ... but once the car is in an owners hands, I can't see Tesla having much of a say in the matter.
 
Just thinking and wondering .......

Regarding the estimates above pertaining to the number of employees that will order .....
I'd imagine the number would be higher than anticipated.
Surely, some employees will order, then sell to family?
Surely, some will order and sell on the open market?

Human nature would seem to dictate that if you have what so many want ... the conditions are ripe for selling at a profit.
Tesla may have prohibited a resale ... but once the car is in an owners hands, I can't see Tesla having much of a say in the matter.

That's would be true for the general populace, but these are employees. Would you risk your job to make 5-10k on a car?
 
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