So, been busy with stuff unrelated to this project.
Anyway, getting good data on how viable my setup would be without any changes to loads.
Since I have six panels setup for testing, I can multiply their output by 17 to get a low estimate of what my full setup would have produced. Using that data and my load data I calculated out that near sunset on the 12th the battery bank would be pretty much full.
Continuing on, the 13th, 14th, 15th, and today (16th) have been completely crappy weather days. Yesterday was the worst yet, with peak power output of only about 7.5% of rated. When I say it like that it sounds bad, but when I consider that this day was full of pretty heavy thunderstorms... it's not too bad.
Anyway, using this data and no changes to any loads or habits, since sunset on the 12th I would still be running right now. Without any changes to habits I estimate I would run out of battery power sometime this evening, though... and need a boost from the grid.
However, all is not lost. Part of the load in this time period was 67kWh worth of Model S charging between my two Model S. A side project is some
HPWC hacking that will adjust charging based on solar input and stationary bank charge level. In this scenario I likely would not have charged either Model S yet, and both would be somewhere around or above 50% SoC still. Charging would wait until either I override because I need the charge or until the stationary battery bank was sufficiently recharged (75-80% maybe). This way the cars will just get topped off on the next sunny day. On an average spring day it looks like the battery bank could be recharged from dead to full by around noon... then excess power still goes to loads, which would be perfect for Model S charging. Could charge any time at a minor efficiency loss due to needing to store the power first, but charging from solar->inverters is a hair more efficient than solar->batteries->inverters, so that will be preferred.
Overall, I'm pretty stoked about getting this whole thing up and running.
Model S charging is the largest load on my system, with both HPWCs running being 40kW draw. In full sun that'd still leave ~5kW for other loads or stationary bank charging.
So, some smart handling of that load will go a long way I think.