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Poll: Testing the wisdom of crowds - how far off is Autopilot V2 Hardware?

How far off is release of Autopilot V2 Hardware in Model S and X?

  • 1-2 months

    Votes: 4 2.9%
  • 2 -4 months

    Votes: 3 2.2%
  • 4-6 months

    Votes: 10 7.4%
  • 6-8 months

    Votes: 25 18.4%
  • 8-10 months

    Votes: 12 8.8%
  • 10-12 months

    Votes: 23 16.9%
  • 12-14 months

    Votes: 12 8.8%
  • 14-16 months

    Votes: 10 7.4%
  • 16-18 months

    Votes: 13 9.6%
  • More than 18 months

    Votes: 24 17.6%

  • Total voters
    136
  • Poll closed .
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The 2017 E-class has much better autopilot hardware than Tesla. This is fact. Tesla should be somewhat embarrassed by this. I haven't driven one yet so I don't know about the software side of it. Mercedes lawyers might cripple it with UberNanny nags. Anyone drive one yet? I'd love to hear some thoughts from someone who's driven the 2017 E-Class.

The car needs to be released first.
 
The 2017 E-class has much better autopilot hardware than Tesla. This is fact. Tesla should be somewhat embarrassed by this. I haven't driven one yet so I don't know about the software side of it. Mercedes lawyers might cripple it with UberNanny nags. Anyone drive one yet? I'd love to hear some thoughts from someone who's driven the 2017 E-Class.

I'm very skeptical of the 2017 E-Class, but we'll have to see when it's out.

I have a 2016 GLC350 (built two months ago) with Distronic Plus with Steering Assist, Active Blind Spot Assist, Active Lane Keeping Assist, Pre-Safe Brake with Pedestrian Recognition, Pre-Safe Plus, and Parktronic with Active Parking Assist. The sensor hardware is definitely superior to the Tesla. It has more radar and stereo cameras up front. However, it doesn't have the new 2017 Drive Pilot, Car to X communications, or Pre-Safe Sound.

I can tell you, in practice, the 2016 version is horrible compared to Autopilot for assisted driving, despite all those better sensors. Very disappointing. Autopilot is so good now that on highways, the passenger can't tell I'm not driving. It feels very natural. The Mercedes, on the other hand, feels like a bunch of driver assistance tools duct taped together. Autopilot feels like a mode you can put your car into to reduce workload. It feels like an airplane's autopilot. Mercedes has a long way to go.

Now, assisted driving aside--specifically in terms of sensor-based safety--I think the Mercedes is superior in almost every other regard. The radar sees the blind spots better. It warns you of overtaking vehicles during a lane change. Tesla can't do that. The rear-facing radar detects fast approaching cars and can flash the brake lights to warn the approaching car. If they don't stop, it engages the brakes and pulls your seat belt tight. Very cool. The cross-traffic and pedestrian warnings are superior. Rarely needed, but nice to have.

So, yeah, I'm very interested in how far they've come when the 2017 E-Class. Of course, if we had a Tesla instead of a Mercedes for our second car, we'd just get an OTA update and all these features would be added. Instead, we'll have to wait three years until this lease is up... and bring it in for service if we want to upgrade the navigation maps. ;)
 
The new E class doesn't have Car to x communications enables. Even with that car online, they would still need to implement detailed mapping for lane keeping. It is likely that Tesla will continue to be significantly superior for highway driving.

The 2017 E class probably is better at functions like emergency braking than current Tesla. But the 2017 Tesla will presumably have next gen. systems too.
 
The 2017 E-class has much better autopilot hardware than Tesla. This is fact. Tesla should be somewhat embarrassed by this. I haven't driven one yet so I don't know about the software side of it. Mercedes lawyers might cripple it with UberNanny nags. Anyone drive one yet? I'd love to hear some thoughts from someone who's driven the 2017 E-Class.

The 2014-2016 Benzes had better hardware as well - but despite this fact they don't work nearly as well at lane keeping as Teslas do with inferior hardware. We'll see what happens with the 2017 new generation of Benz's drive pilot, but it's not out yet.
 
I thought the new e-class - W213 2017 model - is the first Benz with car to X. No?

Future_Models_All_New_2017_E_Sedan

Key Highlights: "Car-to-X" Communication

Also, "Pre-Safe Sound" is really innovative. If a crash is imminent, the speakers play a loud white noise, which cause two muscle in your ears (stapedius and tensor tympani) to contract in a reflex response. This, in turn, protects your ear from damage due to the loud sounds (glass/metal breaking and airbags going off) associated with a crash. Such a cool new application using nothing but existing hardware. Seems like something Tesla could do quite easily to their entire Autopilot fleet via a firmware upgrade.
 
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I'm very skeptical of the 2017 E-Class, but we'll have to see when it's out.

Very little gets written anywhere about Mercedes' technology. Have you noticed that? Tesla seems to view their autopilot tech as a publicity tool - and is happy to let quite a bit of info out in the wild - ie fleet learning, which Mobileeye SOC is in use etc. etc.

Mercedes, though we all know it has tremendous resources and has been working on this for decades - is tight lipped.

And if you go on Benz forums there's almost no discussion of the underlying tech of the drive pilot software.
 
Very little gets written anywhere about Mercedes' technology. Have you noticed that? Tesla seems to view their autopilot tech as a publicity tool - and is happy to let quite a bit of info out in the wild - ie fleet learning, which Mobileeye SOC is in use etc. etc.

Mercedes, though we all know it has tremendous resources and has been working on this for decades - is tight lipped.

And if you go on Benz forums there's almost no discussion of the underlying tech of the drive pilot software.
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Calisnow: I have much info. Your data is closest to accurate. I post as Trey_Traf on StockTwits in the MBLY thread. To follow MB in Europe (much documentation exists), need to follow trade shows. Most of info posted here is bs with exception of yours.
 
Very little gets written anywhere about Mercedes' technology. Have you noticed that? Tesla seems to view their autopilot tech as a publicity tool - and is happy to let quite a bit of info out in the wild - ie fleet learning, which Mobileeye SOC is in use etc. etc.

Mercedes, though we all know it has tremendous resources and has been working on this for decades - is tight lipped.

And if you go on Benz forums there's almost no discussion of the underlying tech of the drive pilot software.
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simply follow 2 names: Markus Enzweiler and Uwe Franke
for example:
a) https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=vNZhd_8AAAAJ
b) https://scholar.google.com/citation...J&citation_for_view=V7gOof8AAAAJ:PoWvk5oyLR8C

common knowledge current is radar and vision but Mercedes has been working with Quanergy since 2014 for future LIDAR.
but takes many years 4-7 to bring a product to market (even requires 2 winters of testing), so sometimes the olv patent search helps finds details.
All the tech conferences (like http://cvpr2016.thecvf.com/program/main_conference or even the vendor (i.e. tools) shows (like MathLab) help find excellent info (as an example:
https://www.d2.mpi-inf.mpg.de/sites/default/files/cordts-cvprws.pdf and https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/ and
http://www.automobil-elektronik-kongress.de/en/?sf26788294=1 )
).

Because the German education system is completely different, German Auto mfg's depend on acadamic research more than the Detroit OEMs do.

Goldman has this research when you want a feel for landscape: (Cars 2025: Vol. 3 and 2 and 1):
a) http://doc.xueqiu.com/1481284bee9343fd2759b09b.pdf
b) https://docs.askiven.com/docs_file.php?v=TW9uZXRpemluZyB0aGUgcmlzZSBvZiBBdXRvbm9tb3VzIFZlaGljbGVzIC0uLi4KaHR0cDovL3BnLmpyai5jb20uY24vYWNjL1Jlcy9DTl9SRVMvSU5WRVNULzIwMTUvOS8xNy9mNzA0NzJjNi1mNGFkLTQ5NDItOGVhYi0zYzAxZjNjNzE3YTcucGRmCjE=

There are numerous "research" and "academic" papers from Mercedes Engineering. No need to guess.
 
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Thank you - these presentations are great! I also looked you up on stocktwit like you said, and watched the youtube video on the deep learning panel from that conference at technion - fantastic panel.
 
Based off Musk's comments at the Code conference I have changed my vote to the 6-8 month timeline - and definitely postponed my second S order to wait for the revision of the AP hardware.

If you watch the entire conference Q&A he later states that he thinks fully autonomous driving is 3 years away. He does believe this is a 'solved problem' but was pretty clear on the 2 years for technology and 1 year for regulators timeline.

It is probably safe to get your Tesla and start enjoying it now. You can always upgrade in a few years (or downgrade to a model 3) if full autonomy is your goal and it is actually achieved and approved.
 
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It is probably safe to get your Tesla and start enjoying it now. You can always upgrade in a few years (or downgrade to a model 3) if full autonomy is your goal and it is actually achieved and approved.

Well I have one autopilot S already - I need a second one, so I'm waiting. You're right about what Elon has said, but based on what he did last time, many of us believe that what is going to happen is this:

1 - By December 2016 the hardware will be updated to have at least three cameras facing the front
2 - The fleet of AP 2.0 hardware Teslas will drive around for 18 more months collecting data, but without the full autonomy turned on.
3 - Steps 1 & 2 put you at the 24 month mark, and then you have the "additional year" Elon mentioned for the cars to demonstrate they are safe and for regulators to allow people to legally drive while not paying attention.

The evidence for a very imminent hardware update is overwhelming at this point - I can go into more detail on it and list it off if you want to hear it.
 
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