Poll : When will Waymo cover top 50 cities in US ?

[EVNow]

Here is a fun poll. When do you think Waymo will offer non-NDA robotaxi service to vast majority of the geography of top 50 Metropolitan areas of US ?

Here is the list of metropolitan areas in US by 2020 population as defined by census.

Metropolitan statistical area - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Interestingly there are some 56 metros with over a million population. Still won’t include some well known cities.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I think a more interesting question would be what metro city, and what autonomous fleet company will be the first to overtake current taxi/ridesharing offerings as the preferred way of getting around the city?

2024 -> Cruise/San Francisco?

 

[EVNow]

I think a more interesting question would be what metro city, and what autonomous fleet company will be the first to overtake current taxi/ridesharing offerings as the preferred way of getting around the city?

2024 -> Cruise/San Francisco?

Sure, you can create your own poll !

To me this is interesting because it tells us when Waymo can perhaps scale.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Sure, you can create your own poll !

To me this is interesting because it tells us when Waymo can perhaps scale.

I don't think TMC offers user submitted poll answers.

 

[EVNow]

I don't think TMC offers user submitted poll answers.

I mean, create a separate poll …

 

[diplomat33]

Here is a fun poll. When do you think Waymo will offer non-NDA robotaxi service to vast majority of the geography of top 50 Metropolitan areas of US ?

Here is the list of metropolitan areas in US by 2020 population as defined by census.

Metropolitan statistical area - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Interestingly there are some 56 areas with over a million population.

I voted 2031-2040 because of the time I think it will take to test, validate safety, get regulatory approval, etc... in that many cities. Deploying safe robotaxis with no safety drivers is more than just doing the software part. Simulation will help accelerate the development process but Waymo will still need to test the software in real world driving in all those cities to make it sure that it really is safe enough. So, deploying in the top 50 cities will require mapping, testing, validating safety, regulatory approval etc... That will add more time.

By the way, in the video below, the Wall Street Journal reporter says that Uber and Lift make most of their money from only about 10 cities. So he argues that robotaxi companies like Waymo would only need to cover about 10 cities to be a profitable ride-hailing business. So I don't think it really needs to be 50 cities. If Waymo only deploys in 10 cities, that would be great!

 

[EVNow]

If Waymo only deploys in 10 cities, that would be great!

Great for who ? I couldn’t care less if Google becomes even more richer.

If it is actually good, it is in the best interest of most humans to deploy it widely. That’s what interests me. Not whether a monopolist makes more money …

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I mean, create a separate poll …

I meant that I can't create a separate poll since TMC doesn't offer user submitted answers (to my knowledge) which would be vital for my poll.

What I was getting is really what yard stick we should be measuring.

The rollout in terms of cities covered or popularity of the service in a given metro area.

 

[diplomat33]

Great for who ? I couldn’t care less if Google becomes even more richer.

If it is actually good, it is in the best interest of most humans to deploy it widely. That’s what interests me. Not whether a monopolist makes more money …

Waymo is a business just like Tesla. They need to be profitable.

But when Waymo does deploy widely, it will be orders of magnitude safer than human driving. It will be great for humans who can't drive anymore. It will be great for humans who won't have to drive home drunk anymore. It will be great for humans who won't have to drive home tired anymore. It will be great for humans who are bad drivers. It will save lives. It will be great for humans who want to get work done on their boring commute. It will be great for busy parents who don't have time to drive their kids everywhere. Safe robotaxis will have many potential benefits to society.

 

[Supcom]

Maybe we should start with when Waymo will offer robotaxi service for the entirety of ONE major city in the US?

 

[EVNow]

I meant that I can't create a separate poll since TMC doesn't offer user submitted answers (to my knowledge) which would be vital for my poll.

What I was getting is really what yard stick we should be measuring.

The rollout in terms of cities covered or popularity of the service in a given metro area.

I see what you are saying.

You would have to improvise and provide plausible choices …

 

[Supcom]

I voted 2031-2040 because of the time I think it will take to test, validate safety, get regulatory approval, etc... in that many cities. Deploying safe robotaxis with no safety drivers is more than just doing the software part. Simulation will help accelerate the development process but Waymo will still need to test the software in real world driving in all those cities to make it sure that it really is safe enough. So, deploying in the top 50 cities will require mapping, testing, validating safety, regulatory approval etc... That will add more time.

By the way, in the video below, the Wall Street Journal reporter says that Uber and Lift make most of their money from only about 10 cities. So he argues that robotaxi companies like Waymo would only need to cover about 10 cities to be a profitable ride-hailing business. So I don't think it really needs to be 50 cities. If Waymo only deploys in 10 cities, that would be great!

But Uber and Lyft have no vehicle development, acquisition or maintenance costs. They rely on drivers providing their own vehicles.

 

[JulienW]

More realistic might be 12 to 15 of the top 20 metros. Covering all 50 of the top metros may be a while with lots of starts and stops/steps along the way.


EDIT: Anyone who votes 2076-2100 is just blowing smoke since that is well beyond anyones ability to predict and most of us will be dead.

 

[Tam]

...2031-2040...

It's interesting that in the video, Waymo refused to speculate the estimated time. I think that it's a reasonable answer based on the very crude technology that we currently have.

 

[Supcom]

It's interesting that in the video, Waymo refused to speculate the estimated time. I think that it's a reasonable answer based on the very crude technology that we currently have.

Given that robotaxis do not need to be able to drive everywhere - only within a limited territory each - it's curious that Waymo cannot get their vehicles to operate in multiple cities now. That implies, to me, that their approach does not currently scale even to the level of a single city.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Maybe we should start with when Waymo will offer robotaxi service for the entirety of ONE major city in the US?

I think the goal should be something economically viable.

Fleet companies like Waymo simply won't offer services to parts of a city that aren't economically viable.

The pandemic certainly isn't helping matters as business travel, and tourism is still way down.

 

[EVNow]

Given that robotaxis do not need to be able to drive everywhere - only within a limited territory each - it's curious that Waymo cannot get their vehicles to operate in multiple cities now. That implies, to me, that their approach does not currently scale even to the level of a single city.

Exactly what I’ve been saying for a while which Waymo fans dismiss as blasphemy.

 

[EVNow]

More realistic might be 12 to 15 of the top 20 metros. Covering all 50 of the top metros may be a while with lots of starts and stops/steps along the way.


EDIT: Anyone who votes 2076-2100 is just blowing smoke since that is well beyond anyones ability to predict and most of us will be dead.

See Uber expansion. In 4 years they expanded worldwide.

Quick expansion is important to establish presence and fend off competitors.

 

[TresLA]

But Uber and Lyft have no vehicle development, acquisition or maintenance costs. They rely on drivers providing their own vehicles.

Yeah. That WSJ vid above estimates $200k per Waymo vehicle (I’m guessing specifically the Jaguar I-Pace and additional trunk of computers, multiple LiDARs, radars, and 29 freaking visual cameras used in SF). I wonder what maintenance costs are like. Teslas/EVs are so far very low maintenance costs, but if it’s anything like FSD beta with the sometimes violent jerking and stopping/starting, I’m guessing wear and tear is higher than human driven EVs at the current autonomous tech.

 

[okcazure]

I’m guessing wear and tear is higher than human driven EVs at the current autonomous tech.

You haven't seen me drive . I'm guessing you meant human driven taxi's but I couldn't resist