We've had 14 outages since last September. ... National Grid
Anecdotally, Nat Grid seems less reliable than "Ever"source.
Are you selecting a higher reserve, or "backup" on your PW's, to ensure the Connected Solutions compensation? If you are being paid unwittingly, it doesn't sound like there was any lead time to adjust. You may not know, but out of curiosity is there anywhere where the demand event shows up on your bill as either KW's, or KWh's?
As far as program predictability, I don't think Connected Solutions is that easy, because it isn't only about the hottest day(s).
Considering PV & PW, I am trying to reacquaint with ES solar rates and SMART. I'm aware it's a formula, and not a simple "export" rate, so could use a quick walk through (or link) on the PV side. All I've found, so far, is what looks like an old EnergySage page, that looks dated:
2020 Eversource Net Metering Rates | EnergySage
Before more changes in April/May, I last remember Eversource East hadn't reached its NEM cap. I also remember calculating "SMART" compensation, at something near $.09/KWh(?).
I can comment how this stuff works in other states off the top of my head, but with research can't do it in the state I live