-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.
- Thread starter nwdiver
- Start date
-
- Tags
- Energy Environment Policy
For 2019, advanced economies (U.S. and other OECD) are already showing decreasing oil consumption. Worldwide in 2019, global oil consumption grew at its slowest pace since 2011.
Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Ummm, Europe is also significantly smaller than the US too! That plays a significantly greater role in determining miles driven as well. Comparing the driving behaviour between significantly different places is bad data since you're not controlling your variables.
dgpcolorado
high altitude member
The disappointing thing is that oil consumption is still growing.For 2019, advanced economies (U.S. and other OECD) are already showing decreasing oil consumption. Worldwide in 2019, global oil consumption grew at its slowest pace since 2011.
Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
It needs to be falling, quickly!The disappointing thing is that oil consumption is still growing.
If you ignore the IEA's projections (which have been notoriously wrong for the past decade), consumption did not grow in the US, and China's consumption growth dropped by a half. So the two largest economies in the world are on the right path.
Plus 2019 just barely finished 2 weeks ago, the IEA sure completed their 2019 data awfully quick (I'm skeptical that it's truly "done").
It's from the EIA (Energy Information Agency, a US government agency), not the IEA (Ignore Every Analysis, or something like that, an international group).
They're always receiving data, and I don't know what the lag is for oil.
Also, something to look out for in the next couple of weeks is the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook.
Currently it's 2019, but they'll update.
EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2019
For electricity at least, they report about 2 months behind. In the next couple of weeks, they'll report November 2019.
At the end of February, they'll report December 2019 and full year 2019, and then they'll publish their Annual LCoE and LACE report, which looks forward a few years. That's at U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Source
It's found from the AEO page under Documentation and Assumptions, "Levelized generation costs (<Year>)".
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Germany could close its last coal-fired power plant long before a 2038 deadline as the dirtiest fossil fuel gets squeezed out of the energy mix by clean electricity.
Solar, wind and other forms of renewables already have become Germany’s biggest source of electricity and will cut deeper into coal’s share in the next few years. The government forecasts that green power will make up about 80% of the electricity mix by 2038, compared with just over 40% now. Higher carbon prices may gut profit for whatever plants are still able to run.
Germany could close its last coal-fired power plant long before a 2038 deadline as the dirtiest fossil fuel gets squeezed out of the energy mix by clean electricity.
Solar, wind and other forms of renewables already have become Germany’s biggest source of electricity and will cut deeper into coal’s share in the next few years. The government forecasts that green power will make up about 80% of the electricity mix by 2038, compared with just over 40% now. Higher carbon prices may gut profit for whatever plants are still able to run.
I heard we will all be dead much sooner than that. That should reduce the demand somewhat unless our robotic replacements get power hungry (literally and figuratively)
Nope; You need to work on your listening/reading comprehension. We have until 2030 to take significant action to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
If a large ship is on a collision course with a lighthouse it might need to alter course <200m from that lighthouse to avoid catastrophe. If it's 250m from the lighthouse it's not going to hit the lighthouse in 50m... but it does need to be 'hard over' within 50m or 200m after that very bad things are going to happen. If it hasn't changed course or speed and it's <200m from the lighthouse nothing the ship does can avoid some kind of collision.
And who said liberals were a humorless lot? Oh wait, that was me!
I enjoy humor just as much as I enjoy accuracy. Maybe even more
Not sure I self-identify as 'liberal' although in todays vernacular any acceptance of reality is immediately labeled 'liberal' so...... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Your "humor" and Limbaugh's "entertainment" have the same smell.And who said liberals were a humorless lot? Oh wait, that was me!
mspohr
Well-Known Member
I heard that there are people on the internet who mindlessly repeat nonsense.
EIA: Renewables Will Surge Past Coal, Nuclear to 22% of U.S. Power Mix in 2021
Using the EIA correction factor based on previous predictions it's not impossible wind and solar will be 100% of generation by the end of this year....
Using the EIA correction factor based on previous predictions it's not impossible wind and solar will be 100% of generation by the end of this year....
Electric Power Monthly!
January edition, for capacity changes and generation November 2019.
Coal capacity dropped 3.90GW in October 2019. Forecast capacity reductions reduced slightly. Last month the 12 month net capacity change forecast was -9,190.9. This month the forecast increased by 112.6MW to -5,175.9MW.
Coal's rolling 12 month share has dropped another 0.38% to 23.85%. Coal was 48.21% of generation in 2008. Its share has now dropped by more half.
Coal's capacity factor for November 2019 (46.0%) was much lower than for November 2018 (53.2%), continuing the trending of falling capacity factors. The rolling 12 month average capacity factor is 48.5%, compared with 53.6% 12 months ago.
Nuclear capacity reduce only slightly, by 35.9MW, and planned 12 month capacity changes decreased by -33.5MW to -996.1MW.
Nuclear generation was up very slighty compared to last year (64.1TWh v 64.0TWh).
Unlike coal, nuclear capacity factors are stable. Rolling capacity factor is 93.1%, compared to 92.7% 12 months ago.
Coal:
Capacity (MW):
Capacity Factor (MW):
Generation (GWh):
Nuclear:
Capacity (MW):
Capacity Factor (MW):
Generation (GWh):
January edition, for capacity changes and generation November 2019.
Coal capacity dropped 3.90GW in October 2019. Forecast capacity reductions reduced slightly. Last month the 12 month net capacity change forecast was -9,190.9. This month the forecast increased by 112.6MW to -5,175.9MW.
Coal's rolling 12 month share has dropped another 0.38% to 23.85%. Coal was 48.21% of generation in 2008. Its share has now dropped by more half.
Coal's capacity factor for November 2019 (46.0%) was much lower than for November 2018 (53.2%), continuing the trending of falling capacity factors. The rolling 12 month average capacity factor is 48.5%, compared with 53.6% 12 months ago.
Nuclear capacity reduce only slightly, by 35.9MW, and planned 12 month capacity changes decreased by -33.5MW to -996.1MW.
Nuclear generation was up very slighty compared to last year (64.1TWh v 64.0TWh).
Unlike coal, nuclear capacity factors are stable. Rolling capacity factor is 93.1%, compared to 92.7% 12 months ago.
Coal:
Capacity (MW):
| Period | Prior | Change | New | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | 233,675.1 | -3,902.4 | 229,772.7 | -1.67% |
| YTD | 242,785.6 | -13,012.9 | 229,772.7 | -5.36% |
| Rolling | 244,426.5 | -14,653.8 | 229,772.7 | -6.00% |
| Plan +12mo | -9,190.9 | 112.6 | -5,175.9 | . |
Capacity Factor (MW):
| Value | Prior | Change | New | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month Capacity | 244,426.5 | -14,653.8 | 229,772.7 | -6.00% |
| Month Factor | 53.2% | -7.2% | 46.0% | -13.53% |
| Rolling 12mo Factor | 53.6% | -5.1% | 48.5% | -9.47% |
Generation (GWh):
| Year | Month | YTD | Rolling | Month % | YTD% | Rolling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 92,819 | 1,049,169 | 1,155,714 | 28.63% | 27.15% | 27.40% |
| 2019 | 75,630 | 893,735 | 990,528 | 23.70% | 23.44% | 23.85% |
| Difference | -17,189 | -155,434 | -165,186 | -4.92% | -3.72% | -3.55% |
Nuclear:
Capacity (MW):
| Period | Prior | Change | New | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | 98,106.1 | -35.9 | 98,070.2 | -0.04% |
| YTD | 99,432.9 | -1,362.7 | 98,070.2 | -1.37% |
| Rolling | 99,432.9 | -1,362.7 | 98,070.2 | -1.37% |
| Plan +12mo | -998.5 | -33.5 | -996.1 | . |
Capacity Factor (MW):
| Value | Prior | Change | New | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month Capacity | 99,432.9 | -1,362.7 | 98,070.2 | -1.37% |
| Month Factor | 89.3% | 1.5% | 90.8% | 1.68% |
| Rolling 12mo Factor | 92.7% | 0.4% | 93.1% | 0.49% |
Generation (GWh):
| Year | Month | YTD | Rolling | Month % | YTD% | Rolling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 63,954 | 735,427 | 809,127 | 19.72% | 19.03% | 19.18% |
| 2019 | 64,125 | 736,164 | 807,822 | 20.10% | 19.30% | 19.45% |
| Difference | 171 | 737 | -1,305 | 0.37% | 0.27% | 0.27% |
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
^^ I focus on generation. Coal is down almost 20% YoY in November 2019 and down ~ 15% YTD for the reported 11 months of 2019.
It should be a distant memory already but this is probably the best we can hope for with the current psychopath in the White House.
It should be a distant memory already but this is probably the best we can hope for with the current psychopath in the White House.
Merrill
Merrill
I forgot to add that rolling 12mo coal generation dropped below 1PWh.
Generation is capacity x capacity factor x hours/year.
For me, watching generation only doesn't say how much change is capacity and how much is capacity factor. That capacity factor is falling, even while there have been significant capacity reductions indicates that there's more to come.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Similar threads
