Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

[nwdiver]

LFTR.... more like LOL. Yes... let's mix the twitchiest element we know of in our nuclear fuel... what could possibly go wrong?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The problem is that you can only estimate so much - at a certain point, there's just no way to know the full extent of any contamination until they get down into the dirt. It costs a LOT to clean up nuclear sites because the precautions the workers have to take are extensive and extreme, even more so in earthquake prone areas like California, and there are a limited number of people who can do this type of work as well. So we end up with $2.7B being not enough.

Give me $1B and I'll commission 30 autonomous vehicles to will have it any site cleaned up inside 1yr with no on-site personnel. I just don't understand how there could possibly be any project parameters that take you over $1B with the technology at our fingertips in 2020.

 

[nwdiver]

Give me $1B and I'll commission 30 autonomous vehicles to will have it any site cleaned up inside 1yr with no on-site personnel. I just don't understand how there could possibly be any project parameters that take you over $1B with the technology at our fingertips in 2020.

I met a guy that travels the country working at various nuclear sites. He told me that once people understand that ~99% of the purpose of nuclear is to provide high-paying jobs it will be 'viable'. Nuclear power is essentially a form of welfare.

Vogtle will never produce cost effective electricity but it sure has given paychecks to A LOT of people.

Vogtle construction site employment hits 9,000

 

[mspohr]

Banks Shunning Coal Financing Bodes Badly for New Plants in Asia

Lenders backing away from coal financing have tipped the scales against the dirtiest fossil fuel in Southeast Asia, raising the prospect that many new power plants will never be built, according to BloombergNEF.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I met a guy that travels the country working at various nuclear sites. He told me that once people understand that ~99% of the purpose of nuclear is to provide high-paying jobs it will be 'viable'. Nuclear power is essentially a form of welfare.

Vogtle will never produce cost effective electricity but it sure has given paychecks to A LOT of people.

I feel like 90% of jobs these days are essentially masturbatory, we're just filling in all the gaps left by technological advance. Finally quit my corporate job in September to start my solar concept I believe I mentioned to you years ago. Hard to imagine that was how I spent my days, counting numbers and making recommendations that meant literally nothing and provided less than zero value.

 

[SageBrush]

Give me $1B and I'll commission 30 autonomous vehicles to will have it any site cleaned up inside 1yr with no on-site personnel.

Then you are going to be one of the richest of the rich in the world.

Mule and Musk

Congrats !!

 

[SageBrush]

Banks Shunning Coal Financing Bodes Badly for New Plants in Asia

Lenders backing away from coal financing have tipped the scales against the dirtiest fossil fuel in Southeast Asia, raising the prospect that many new power plants will never be built, according to BloombergNEF.

Did you read the last paragraph ?

There are still lenders that haven’t committed to phasing out coal financing. China could fill the void left by other investors who pulled out, especially given the slowdown in new coal power projects domestically, according to Abraham. China mines and burns half of the world’s supply.

I'll declare victory against coal when China rejects it.

 

[mspohr]

Did you read the last paragraph ?

I'll declare victory against coal when China rejects it.

The final victory won't be a large bang, but just a whimper as the last coal plant has its financing pulled.
The end is in sight.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Then you are going to be one of the richest of the rich in the world.

Mule and Musk

Congrats !!

For you? I make very good price....$860M!

Obviously I wouldn't do the work myself, I'd pay Elon $300M to delegate it to a team of grad students with $550M in working capital

There's such a thing as a Roomba, just sayin

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Electric Power Monthly!

February edition, for capacity changes and generation December 2019, so full year 2019 results are in!

Coal capacity dropped 432MW in December 2019, and 13,544.2MW in total in 2019 to end at 229,241.4MW. Forecast capacity reductions increased. Last month, the 12 month net capacity change forecast was -5,175.9MW. This month the forecast decreased by 1,399.9MW to -6,143.8MW. So, a much smaller decrease than 2019, but the capacity reductions continue.

Coal's rolling 12 month share dropped another 0.59% to 23.26% for the whole of 2019, a drop of 4.00% from 2018. Coal was 48.21% of generation in 2008. December 2019 generation was 72.6TWh compared to 96.8TWh in 2018, and for the whole year was 966.1TWh compared to 1,146.0TWh for 2018.

Coal's capacity factor for December 2019 (43.2%) was much lower than for December 2019 (55.9%), again continuing the trending of falling capacity factors. The rolling 12 month average and 2019 capacity factor was 47.5%, compared with 53.6% 12 months ago.

Given the large reductions in coal generation capacity during 2019, and continuing capacity factor reduction despite the closures, we should continue to see a reduction in generation in 2020. It's extraordinary to think that at the current rate of decline, it's possible that by the end of 2020 coal generation will fall below that of nuclear.

Nuclear capacity was unchanged in December 2019 and ended 2019 at 98,070.2MW. Planned 12 month capacity changes decreased by 601.4MW to -1,597.5MW, so the gradual decrease continues but at a much slower pace than coal.

Nuclear generation in December was up compared to last year (73.1TWh v 71.7TWh), but for 2019 was up on very slightly, at 809.4TWh v 807.1TWh.

Unlike coal, nuclear capacity factors are stable or rising. Rolling capacity factor is 93.4%, compared to 92.5% 12 months ago. December 2019's capacity factor was 100.1%. A busy month.

Coal:

Capacity (MW):

Period	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month	229,673.4	-432.0	229,241.4	-0.19%
YTD	242,785.6	-13,544.2	229,241.4	-5.58%
Rolling	242,785.6	-13,544.2	229,241.4	-5.58%
Plan +12mo	-5,175.9	-1,399.9	-6,143.8	.

Capacity Factor (MW):

Value	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month Capacity	242,785.6	-13,544.2	229,241.4	-5.58%
Month Factor	55.9%	-12.7%	43.2%	-22.72%
Rolling 12mo Factor	53.6%	-6.1%	47.5%	-11.45%

Generation (GWh):

Year	Month	YTD	Rolling	Month %	YTD%	Rolling
2018	96,793	1,145,962	1,145,962	28.45%	27.26%	27.26%
2019	72,554	966,148	966,148	21.38%	23.26%	23.26%
Difference	-24,239	-179,814	-179,814	-7.07%	-4.00%	-4.00%

Nuclear:

Capacity (MW):

Period	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month	98,070.2	0.0	98,070.2	0.00%
YTD	99,432.9	-1,362.7	98,070.2	-1.37%
Rolling	99,432.9	-1,362.7	98,070.2	-1.37%
Plan +12mo	-996.1	-601.4	-1,597.5	.

Capacity Factor (MW):

Value	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month Capacity	99,432.9	-1,362.7	98,070.2	-1.37%
Month Factor	96.9%	3.2%	100.1%	3.30%
Rolling 12mo Factor	92.5%	0.9%	93.4%	1.00%

Generation (GWh):

Year	Month	YTD	Rolling	Month %	YTD%	Rolling
2018	71,657	807,084	807,084	21.06%	19.20%	19.20%
2019	73,074	809,409	809,409	21.54%	19.49%	19.49%
Difference	1,417	2,325	2,325	0.48%	0.29%	0.29%

 

[Mader Levap]

Give me $1B and I'll commission 30 autonomous vehicles to will have it any site cleaned up inside 1yr with no on-site personnel. I just don't understand how there could possibly be any project parameters that take you over $1B with the technology at our fingertips in 2020.

I see you have same problem as Musk has with autonomous driving. You both think it is simpler and easier than it is in reality.

And besides, what "vehicles"? Do you think stuff will magically teleport out or into vehicle?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sorry to have detailed the thread a bit, though I had help. Back on the "then Oil" portion of the topic....

It's looking like there's a good 30% chance global oil demand peaked in 2019. Coronavirus already erased any growth from this year and I expect the contagion slowdown/recession to affect us through 2021/22 as well.

If that's the case then oil demand has likely peaked, or has at least gone into a 4 year plateau before the fall. Wild huh?

 

[mspohr]

LFTR.... more like LOL. Yes... let's mix the twitchiest element we know of in our nuclear fuel... what could possibly go wrong?

I've been reading about a company which is proposing to fuse boron with hydrogen to make power.
Any thoughts on this?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I've been reading about a company which is proposing to fuse boron with hydrogen to make power.
Any thoughts on this?

I can't see that being carbon neutral.

 

[mspohr]

Germany’s electricity generation was 60% renewable in February — with wind power replacing lignite usage

In February, wind power replaced more than 50% of lignite power. This saved around 5 million tons of CO2 in lignite alone, ”explains Burger.

“The high proportion of renewable energy in February shows that the energy transition is technically feasible and that transmission system operators are able to stabilize the network and guarantee security of supply — even with high proportions of renewable energies,” said Burger.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Well the thread title may need to change. Oil died yesterday.

See: Shorting Oil thread in Investors Forum

 

[nwdiver]

Well the thread title may need to change. Oil died yesterday.

See: Shorting Oil thread in Investors Forum

Buckle up;

 

[dgpcolorado]

The problem with the collapse in oil prices is that it makes gas so cheap that there is no incentive to switch to EVs!

 

[Barklikeadog]

The problem with the collapse in oil prices is that it makes gas so cheap that there is no incentive to switch to EVs!

Can't complain about <$2 gas!

 

[iPlug]

Hopefully potential loss of some U.S. shale oil production would put more pressure on politicians across the board to more heavily incentivize the transition to renewable energy and EVs.