Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It's not a contradiction... it's about the grid becoming smarter and more dynamic. Instead of blindly matching supply with demand as we've done since the first light bulb technology is making it possible to increasingly match demand with supply. If you can reduce the charge rate of an EV when air conditioning ramps up you can cope with a less stable grid. Instead of increasing supply to match a 3kW increase in demand you can simply reduce flexible loads like EV charging by 3kW.

6.6kW/light vehicle x 253M light vehicles = 1,669.8 TW.

Peak US electricity demand peak of 2017 was 718GW.

Smart charging has enormous potential.

 

[mspohr]

Sale of Drilling Leases in Arctic Refuge Fails to Yield a Windfall Sale of Drilling Leases in Arctic Refuge Fails to Yield a Windfall

blow to the Trump administration’s efforts to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to fossil fuel development, only half of the oil and gas leases offered for sale Wednesday received bids, and all but two of those came from the state of Alaska itself.

 

[DigAdrenaline]

What does that mean ?

What I mean by a virtualized grid (better worded as a virtualized power plant maybe) is that rather than a single large generating station outside of the city which generates power for (say for example) 1000 homes and brings that power in via transmission lines, you instead generate 0.1% of the city’s power needs from each house. Then, as the city grows, the generation of power also grow, and in direct proportion. And in the event of a “grid” outage, the impact may be along a single street, perhaps even a community, but most people would be unaffected. Adding battery storage into each house would eliminate the spikes in useage and mostly eliminate the impact of a grid outage.

Sure, maybe each house needs to generate 0.12% or whatever in the above example. My point is the high level theory, not the specific numbers.

 

[DigAdrenaline]

As a fellow Canadian, this is very much not the case for me. Our 3.3kW array produced 72 kWh in the month of December 2020, lots of snow days. With two EV's, one of which is a 2013 Tesla which uses 3 kWh daily standing still ("fantom drain"), our daily use is 30 kWh with everyone working or schooling from home. Our home battery is 11 kWh, not nearly enough storage to weather 3 months (Dec, Jan, Feb) where there is practically little solar available.

The good news, wind and water/hydro has been strong in Ontario, so a lot of our overnight electricity charging cars and battery is renewable.

Summary : 3.3 kW of solar in Ontario Canada barely covers the fantom drain of a Tesla sitting idle plus a bit more. Solar is NOT the year round solution for where I live. I love solar (and have solar heated pool), but winter months here are different than California...

I’m not sure even California is there. This is the target, not the present reality. Much like 100% green vehicles, it’s not likely in my lifetime. But if we aim for it, we will get there faster than if we give up.

Solar might only let us get 10% of the way there. But add LEDs rather than incandescent lighting, maybe we get to 11%. Better, more efficient houses (passive haus designs, etc) maybe 13%. Whatever.

It may end up that it’s impossible to achieve 100%, and even that’s OK. What isn’t, is doing nothing.

 

[DigAdrenaline]

You are contradicting yourself. Local generation and storage in a grid must be at least as reliable as the current grid for this to work. I think we can all agree that if we can't use air conditioning, lights, or charge our cars, the electrical distribution system is not a utility.

I completely agree. So the houses are all linked together. There will be times that you use what I generate, and vice versa. But loads do not all fire up at the same time and shut off at the same time. My goal isn’t isolation of houses. My goal is interdependence. A week ago, I shoveled my neighbors driveway. Maybe next month he’ll shovel mine. Same with power generation. Sometime he will need power from me, sometimes I’ll take power from him. Meters still run, heavy users would see a charge, efficient homes might see a payment.

Local generation eliminates long transmission runs as points of failure and reduces the consequences of a failure. Rooftop solar is just efficient use of space and an easy place to start. Like EV cars before EV rockets, and airplanes in between.

It’s ok to target a goal that we can’t reach today.

 

[SageBrush]

better worded as a virtualized power plant maybe

You are describing a decentralized (distributed, if you prefer) power and storage.

This central vs decentral argument is going to be decided by economics but just for the sake of jawing, I'll point out that what the decentralized version gains in resiliency, it gives up in flexibility. This occurs because each transformer acts a a gatekeeper and island. I have not read studies yet but I'm not going to be surprised if the decentral version also proves to be inefficient.

There is irony here that most of us recognize the value and strength that comes from diversity when it comes to VRE in terms of generation sources, demands and geographic sharing ... but then we fail to see that an open grid is an important part of that construct.

 

[DigAdrenaline]

It's not a contradiction... it's about the grid becoming smarter and more dynamic. Instead of blindly matching supply with demand as we've done since the first light bulb technology is making it possible to increasingly match demand with supply. If you can reduce the charge rate of an EV when air conditioning ramps up you can cope with a less stable grid. Instead of increasing supply to match a 3kW increase in demand you can simply reduce flexible loads like EV charging by 3kW.

This is exactly right.

Or completely pull it out of the EV battery and compensate the cars owner is he’s two doors down the street, or provide it to yourself at no cost from your own EV.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

You are describing a decentralized (distributed, if you prefer) power and storage.

This central vs decentral argument is going to be decided by economics but just for the sake of jawing, I'll point out that what the decentralized version gains in resiliency, it gives up in flexibility. This occurs because each transformer acts a a gatekeeper and island. I have not read studies yet but I'm not going to be surprised if the decentral version also proves to be inefficient.

There is irony here that most of us recognize the value and strength that comes from diversity when it comes to VRE in terms of generation sources, demands and geographic sharing ... but then we fail to see that an open grid is an important part of that construct.

In theory centralized should be more efficient, but then there's the reality of monopolies.

 

[mspohr]

In theory centralized should be more efficient, but then there's the reality of monopolies.

Why should centralized be more efficient? It requires large generators which have difficulty following loads, leading to inefficiency plus extensive transmission lines leading to more inefficiency.
Distributed can fine tune supply and balance the local grid.

 

[Merrill]

To me decentralized Power would be more efficient, in California you have 3 monopolies providing power. In PG&E’s case their territory is way to large and next to impossible to maintain their infrastructure. If you were to have micro grids run by CCA’s they would be able to maintain their infrastructure and with less infrastructure do a better job of maintaining their equipment. I know it’s a pipe dream but continuing as things are now is going to be a big problem, you will have more flex alerts and PSPS situations plus higher electricity prices.

 

[SageBrush]

Why should centralized be more efficient?

Many reasons, actually

• Scale
• Control
• Averaging
• Expertise
• Planning
• Access
• Market leverage

Heck, a lousy 10 - 20 kWh home storage is a couple thousand dollars of just installation costs.

 

[mspohr]

Many reasons, actually

• Scale - large scale is inefficient
• Control DERs have better, more fine grained control
• Averaging is inefficient
• Expertise Ever heard of computers?
• Planning ? Like PGE
• Access- Better access to local resources
• Market leverage - I don't think monopolies are efficient, just profitable

 

[Merrill]

Many reasons, actually

• Scale
• Control
• Averaging
• Expertise
• Planning
• Access
• Market leverage

Heck, a lousy 10 - 20 kWh home storage is a couple thousand dollars of just installation costs.

Scale is the current problem, there is no control, there is no expertise or planning. Why does California have the highest electrical rates in the country, maybe other parts of the US have power companies that have oversite. The CPUC is in bed with all our power companies, so not much control going on.

 

[SageBrush]

A crappy utility does not an argument make, and in any case I am not trying to defend monopolies.

I *am* pointing out centralization has inherent advantages, and of course disadvantages. But specific to decentralized power and storage, bottleneck transformers are a big PITA

 

[MXLRplus]

Sale of Drilling Leases in Arctic Refuge Fails to Yield a Windfall Sale of Drilling Leases in Arctic Refuge Fails to Yield a Windfall

blow to the Trump administration’s efforts to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to fossil fuel development, only half of the oil and gas leases offered for sale Wednesday received bids, and all but two of those came from the state of Alaska itself.

Excellent, that means more bucks for the California oil companies. California and Alaska produce roughly the same amount of crude per year.

It's also good news for Russia the world's #2 oil producer.

 

[Merrill]

A crappy utility does not an argument make, and in any case I am not trying to defend monopolies.

I *am* pointing out centralization has inherent advantages, and of course disadvantages. But specific to decentralized power and storage, bottleneck transformers are a big PITA

Yes I understand, what do you think would be the answer to our situation in California.

 

[mspohr]

A crappy utility does not an argument make, and in any case I am not trying to defend monopolies.

I *am* pointing out centralization has inherent advantages, and of course disadvantages. But specific to decentralized power and storage, bottleneck transformers are a big PITA

I hope you do understand that DERs have planning and control allowing fine tuning of resources.

 

[SageBrush]

I hope you do understand that DERs have planning and control allowing fine tuning of resources.

Or not, as the case may be. Smart meters are not discriminatory or obligatory in either case

 

[mspohr]

Or not, as the case may be. Smart meters are not discriminatory or obligatory in either case

Well, they won't work without smart control.
‘Game-Changer’ FERC Order Opens Up Wholesale Grid Markets to Distributed Energy Resources
https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-09/E-1-facts.pdf

The tariffs also must address technical considerations such as:
locational requirements for DER aggregations;
distribution factors and bidding parameters;
information and data requirements;
metering and telemetry requirements; and
coordination among the regional grid operator, the DER aggregator, the distribution
utility and the relevant retail regulatory authority.
The rule also directs the grid operators to allow DERs that particip

 

[SageBrush]

Yes I understand, what do you think would be the answer to our situation in California.

As a generic dummy on the internet, I'm happy to offer up my 2 cents:

1. Public investment in R&D for better (cheaper, more flexible and powerful) transformers
2. Solve the residential storage installation cost. The procedure needs standards so it can be taken out of the hands of electricians

Notice that both my thoughts gravitate towards DER/S. The (probable) difference between us is that I think rooftop PV is *such* a great thing that it mitigates my perceived disadvantages of distributed storage, so I'd like to improve distributed storage. And like you, I am no fan of my local utility.

By the way, NM is about to start building a 345 kV line to collect wind for export to CA. That works out to ~ a 3 GW clean and cheap energy injection into the state's night time supply