Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Look at the exponential adoption in Norway.

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Yes, but Norway
- has disincentives and incentives that made owning an EV clearly cheaper than an ICEV
- has much cheaper electricity than gasoline and diesel
- banned sales of new private ICEVs from 2025, which they brought forward to 2024.
- is a much smaller market, so not constrained by vehicle supply.

I don't think you can apply their pattern to most markets, and especially to the USA.

I think that the key takeaway from Norway is not to stress too much about educating the public on EVs. We have the Internet where people can do research, and it doesn't take that much volume for increased visibility and a network effect to normalize ownership.

At this point, we really just need supply and lower prices.

 

[Norbert]

I think the USA will likely be about the mid-point as an adopter, so the global average number (50% = approx 2030) is what I offer for USA. Some areas (esp Europe, possibly China) will switch faster, others slower.

In the US, there is (still) a lot of skepticism and doubt about electric cars. That might reverse as EVs cross 10% to 25% market share, and may even cause the US to catch up with Europe to some degree.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

In the US, there is (still) a lot of skepticism and doubt about electric cars. That might reverse as EVs cross 10% to 25% market share, and may even cause the US to catch up with Europe to some degree.

JD Power has "very likely to consider" up to 24% (27%/16%), up from 20% a year ago.

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/05/electric-vehicle-consideration-on-the-rise-according-to-j-d-power/

J.D. Power experts believe automakers will be able to convert some unconvinced consumers to EVs “who have never driven, ridden in or even sat in such a vehicle,” by simply offering them a test drive. Only 11 percent of study respondents who had no personal experience at all with EVs said they were “very likely” to consider an EV. That percentage more than doubles to 24 percent among consumers who have simply been a passenger in an EV and rises even further to 34 percent among those who have driven an EV.

Asses in the driver's seat is always the most powerful effect. At minimum people know that it's just like driving an automatic, but better.

 

[ThomasD]

Prices need to come down. It seems prices are going up on electric vehicles vehicles When will we see electric trucks that are on par with diesel pickups in range and towing capabilities and price? Today I saw a Ram pickup towing a large equipment trailer at the gas station. I asked the guy about his rig. I'm a Ram fan. Well he was towing 18,000lb. That truck can go 400 miles towing. So I have been wondering how expensive an electric truck equal to this Ram would cost.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Prices need to come down. It seems prices are going up on electric vehicles vehicles When will we see electric trucks that are on par with diesel pickups in range and towing capabilities and price? Today I saw a Ram pickup towing a large equipment trailer at the gas station. I asked the guy about his rig. I'm a Ram fan. Well he was towing 18,000lb. That truck can go 400 miles towing. So I have been wondering how expensive an electric truck equal to this Ram would cost.

You can hope we get there in the future with solid state, because it would in particular have huge implications for aviation, but forget longer towing ranges like that for now. PIck-ups doing long-distance heavy towing is just part of a part of the market.

E-pickups will be extremely capable, but towing range will be limited.

So, the point about prices needing to fall is the more important piece. I think the global disruptions have set things back a few years. But there are still signs cheaper EVs are coming.

But 2034. I think supply constraint will slow it down. There are other large markets that will electrify sooner.

 

[cwerdna]

So Tesla alone will be pumping about 5m/yr light vehicles into USA in 2030.

Seems highly unlikely given that the largest automakers by sales in the US don't even hit that. And, they have a full line of automobiles, unlike Tesla. (Caveat is that the Big 3 "Detroit" automakers have mostly left the passenger car market, shifting to "light trucks" (e.g. trucks, SUVs, "crossovers" and vans + medium duty and heavier vehicles. However, they do cover a wide range in terms of price, features and luxury (or lack of).)

See https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-conte...21-Kelley-Blue-Book-Sales-and-Data-Report.pdf from 10 Takeaways from U.S. Auto Sales: 2021 - Cox Automotive Inc.. Toyota (including Lexus) hit 2.3 million US vehicle sales in 2021, beating GM's 2.2 million.

Tesla's service, delivery and initial quality in the US has already earned a poor reputation w/Elon and Tesla seeming to treat it as though it's not important. Tesla will really need to scale service and delivery a LOT more to be able to even handle somehow reaching 2 million vehicle sales a year in the US. If they somehow reach 5 million new vehicles in the US a year with a 14 to 17 million/year US vehicle market, I could see their delivery and service being a total cluster#$%#$%.

There was Europe: Plug-In Car Market Share Reached 22% In March 2022 with BEVs at 14%. This report about California, one of the strongest EV markets in the US says BEVs in CA got to 14.6% share (https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-22-002.pdf). I wouldn't be surprised if the US when 2022 ends is still below 10% BEV share for new vehicle sales. It seems to be between 3 and 5ish% for recent time periods.

For those unaware, Europe has fines for automakers not meeting CO2 targets (Google for europe automakers co2 targets fine). This is part of why we've seen automakers tend to prioritize Europe over the US for BEVs. Some automakers had been only selling BEVs in California + CARB emission states (e.g. HyunKia for ages, Toyota, Honda, FCA) and not the whole US while selling them more broadly in Europe. Even Mercedes-Benz EQC Electric SUV Is Not Coming to U.S. after All happened. Supposedly, Mercedes EQC Coming To US After All, Albeit In 2025 will happen though.

The gen 2 The Kia Soul EV | Kia UK kept getting delayed for the US until it was decided it's not coming to the US. It's selling in Europe and Canada: https://www.kia.ca/en/vehicles/2022/soul-ev.

Regarding surveys about people "considering" hybrids, EVs, or whatever, I've become pretty dubious due to what we end up seeing in the end. Example is Consumer Reports Poll: Americans want higher fuel standards, hybrid cars from 2011
"Moreover, a 56 percent majority is considering purchasing hybrid or electric cars as their next vehicle, and 72 percent of the respondents would consider ownership once availability increases."

Well, in the US, I don't think non-plugin hybrids have ever passed the 10% share mark. This isn't the first time I've seen such a divergence from polls where people would "consider" vs. reality.

 

[petit_bateau]

Seems highly unlikely given that the largest automakers by sales in the US don't even hit that. And, they have a full line of automobiles, unlike Tesla.

If you go back to 1921 one manufacturer (Ford) had a 56% marketshare in the USA, and General Motors in second place under their new boss Sloan had only 23%. All others were smaller, together scrabbling over the remaining 21% - see [*ref below].

The point is that the current global (or North American) division of the automotive sector into many companies of roughly equivalent size, with none possessing an overwhelming market share and concomissantly overwhelming economies of scale & scope has not always held sway.

I'm not saying that Tesla will come to dominate in the way that Ford had in 1921 (failing epicly shortly after) - it may be the case that competitors out-compete Tesla. What I am modelling is the scenario where Tesla does dominate, which is also the scenario where adoption proceeds most slowly as there are limits to how quickly Tesla can scale production, and introduce products for each segment (**note below). However if the competitors produce more compelling products at more attractive prices then the BEV adoption will go even faster than my base case.

Hence my base case of 50% of sales in 2030.

However if you look at this adoption graph which @Stuart Watson put up yesterday, then mark 2021 as being the 5% origin year, you'll see that 7-years later in 2028 might be the 50% point for the USA (and, per my base case, the world). There are reasons why adoption might go slower which @ItsNotAboutTheMoney articulated very well. However there are also reasons why it might go faster - or at the very least conclude the second 50% very rapidly indeed. Any purchaser of a dino-juice ICE vehicle in Norway in year 8 was at least in posession of the comfort blanket that outside of Norway those legace ICE dino-juice manufacturs were still large and wealthy global corporations, able to support their products for a long period of time. So ICE purchase risk was low in Norway in year 8. However in the global (or US) case at the post-50% adoption point, any prospective purchaser will be very aware that the historic comfort blanket is of less use than a bundle of rags, and that purchase risk of an ICE in year 8 is like allying yourself with the dinosaurs the day after the Chicxulub impact, mon brave.

So there are cases where adoption will have reached >90% by 2030, strewth.

* https://thebhc.org/sites/default/files/beh/BEHprint/v017/p0049-p0062.pdf

** my projections are that by 2030 Tesla would have a viable & attractive product in each of the following segments, which is certainly a wide enough range "for every purse".

S/X

3/Y + derivatives

Cybertruck + derivatives

Semi + derivatives

Roadster 2

2/Z + derivatives

Van + derivatives

1 + derivatives

Micro car

 

[cwerdna]

ItsNotAboutTheMoney already laid out reasons very well for the US + besides all the headwinds I've laid out for the US (there are more). Asserting that the US will take off like Norway and in such a short time is ridiculous. There are some Americans who believe we have a God-given right to cheap fuel.

It is quite funny what Americans want as stated at Consumer Reports Poll: Americans want higher fuel standards, hybrid cars. There have been many fuel efficient choices readily available. No need to wait for the govt to do something.

IMHO, those who answered the first 3 choices (2025 or before thru 2028) have a SERIOUS misunderstanding of the US auto market and where BEVs stand in it.

Considering Tesla's general trend of increasing prices and Elon's "requirements"/things he's been unwilling to compromise on, I doubt we'll see an inexpensive Tesla for the US market. Remember that the Model S was originally just under $50K after $7500 Federal tax credit: 2013 Model S Price Increase. Now the tax credit's gone and you can't even configure one for below $106K w/$1.2K dest charge.

The "$35K" Model 3 was years late and become tricky to get (e.g. "off-menu"). Now the cheapest is $48,190 w/$1.2K dest charge.

 

[Stuart Watson]

Prices need to come down. It seems prices are going up on electric vehicles vehicles When will we see electric trucks that are on par with diesel pickups in range and towing capabilities and price? Today I saw a Ram pickup towing a large equipment trailer at the gas station. I asked the guy about his rig. I'm a Ram fan. Well he was towing 18,000lb. That truck can go 400 miles towing. So I have been wondering how expensive an electric truck equal to this Ram would cost.

Why do prices need to come down ?

The Tesla cars are already the cheapest to own ! ( That is why the waiting list grows longer and longer)
In Europe a “cooking” (outdated) BMW 320D is €44K ! A Tesla model Y so much better and cheaper over 4 years.

if people choose to throw money away on ice, that is their problem.

 

[cwerdna]

Why do prices need to come down ?

The Tesla cars are already the cheapest to own ! ( That is why the waiting list grows longer and longer)
In Europe a “cooking” (outdated) BMW 320D is €44K ! A Tesla model Y so much better and cheaper over 4 years.

if people choose to throw money away on ice, that is their problem.

I can't speak for ThomasD but Americans are already really pushing it into terms of average transaction price on new cars.

I don't believe BMW sells diesel sedans in the US any longer. BMW also doesn't sell many vehicles in the US (see page 3 of https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-conte...21-Kelley-Blue-Book-Sales-and-Data-Report.pdf) and aims towards certain demographics + definitely aren't for the more budget conscious folks.

EVs Hit Avg Transaction Price Of $66K In US, Gas Car Prices Also Rise

EVs have a higher starting price than comparable gas cars, though long-term ownership costs tell a different story. EVs are getting more expensive, which is the case with most cars.

insideevs.com

"the $66,000 average EV transaction price in the US as reported by Kelley Blue Book (KBB) is an increase of over 13 percent compared to a year ago. However, keep in mind that inflation is pushing up the price of just about everything in our lives, and virtually all car prices are up compared to previous years.

The average new car transaction price goes up most months, and that's been especially true amid the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and other global turmoil. According to KBB, the average new car transaction price in the US (for all cars) rose to $48,043 in June 2022, which is a 12.7 percent rise year over year."

But, he does point out some other arguably important market segments in the US, those who buy large pickups and even if they might only tow a very heavy load once or twice a year, they'll buy it anyway. And, notice the amounts he mentioned.

Right now, there's virtually nothing in EV space in the US which aim more towards the affordable end of the market (e.g. $15K to low $20Ks: 10 Cheapest New Cars for 2022). Ditto for 20 Cheapest SUVs for 2022 - TrueCar. SUVs and "crossovers" are the hotness in the US market. Those + pickups combined have eclipsed passenger car sales in the US long ago.

Compare Electric Cars: EV Range, Specs, Pricing & More is pretty complete list of BEVs here. Even if BEVs existed in the space at only a couple $K more, there's still the issue of people who cannot charge at home nor at work nor a place where they regularly spend hours at a time anyway.

In the US, cars represent freedom and the ability to jump in and go anywhere. It's a tough sell for some to tell them that they need to spend extra time to charge and in many parts of the US, the charging infrastructure is very lacking.

Then you add to automakers basically being unable to own dealerships (Google for tesla franchise laws), so virtually all dealers that sell EVs also sell ICEVs. Since EVs represent such a small %, the level of knowledge is low and they're again a tougher sell w/all sorts of considerations (e.g. needed range, charging complications (many people are clueless) be it public charging or getting an EVSE installed at home). So, sales droids will often take the path of least resistance: selling something w/an engine. If they don't sell, they don't get their commission. And, if a dealer doesn't sell, eventually they will go under.

 

[Stuart Watson]

Right now, there's virtually nothing in EV space in the US which aim more towards the affordable end of the market (e.g. $15K to low $20Ks:



.

There you go again; showing you simply don’t understand Tesla’s plan !

 

[Stuart Watson]

Think it through !

What is going to happen to Tesla’s margin as volumes increase exponentially?

 

[Mengy]

Asserting that the US will take off like Norway and in such a short time is ridiculous. There are some Americans who believe we have a God-given right to cheap fuel.

Again you are making assumptions about the future based on emotions and subjective terms. The data is clear, EV sales are increasing exponentially in the US. It doesn't matter if it "feels" ridiculous, it's happening right now. It doesn't matter if some people want their God given right to cheap gasoline, the data still shows exponential adoption happening right now.

I understand you don't believe it nor like it, and I'm sorry you feel that way, but data is emotionless and it simply EXISTS. Sure the data trend might slow down, but currently there isn't any indication that it will.

Five years from now we'll see if your feelings were correct or the data proved out. Looking forward to this thread over the next five years!

 

[cwerdna]

At least with Stuart's mention of euros, I can only guess he's in Europe. No wonder his views and perceptions about the US auto market are so distorted.

Look at the 5 pickup truck models that make up Pickup trucks dominate America's 10 best-selling vehicles of 2020. Then there are smaller players at 2021 US Pickup Truck Sales Figures By Model.

Has he ever been to Texas? I finally went in Sept 2019. it's true what they say about "everyone" driving pickups there. In the few days I was there, I recall seeing almost no EVs there. I did recall seeing a single Tesla (Model S, IIRC) charging at Space Center Houston | Science and Space Exploration Learning Center.

Sure, the Big 3 are getting into this space, and honestly, I haven't followed the numbers, but look at Ford caps F-150 Lightning orders at 200,000 - CEO Farley vs. those annual Ford F-Series (ICE) truck sales.

Stuart should really come to the US and go to parts that aren't strong EV markets and ask random people what they think about EVs.

FWIW, I drove several hundred miles in Arizona in Sept 2019 (a lot of it was between Phoenix and Tucson). I also saw very few EVs (more than TX). I was also in upstate NY for that same trip. The only EV I recall seeing was being picked up by a moderator of MyNissanLeaf who I met up with in his Leaf. I drove maybe ~250 miles in upstate NY during my stay there. There are MUCH weaker EV markets than these areas and states.

 

[petit_bateau]

At least with Stuart's mention of euros, I can only guess he's in Europe. No wonder his views and perceptions about the US auto market are so distorted.

Look at the 5 pickup truck models that make up Pickup trucks dominate America's 10 best-selling vehicles of 2020. Then there are smaller players at 2021 US Pickup Truck Sales Figures By Model.

Has he ever been to Texas? I finally went a few years ago. It's true what they say about "everyone" driving pickups there. In the few days I was there, I recall seeing almost no EVs there. I did recall seeing a single Tesla (Model S, IIRC) charging at Space Center Houston | Science and Space Exploration Learning Center.

You don't have to guess, you can look at the screen where it says in plain english he is in the Algarve. If you never did geography at school, or even looked at a holiday brochure, that is in southern Portugal. For clarity Portugal is a country in Europe, on the other side of the Atlantic ocean from USA.

Many of us who live in Europe have also lived in USA. Sheesh, many of us have even been to Texas. Heck, I've driven pigs in my pick-up truck. Oil patch pigs that is, not farmed ones.

The point being we do know what goes on around the world.

More to the point there will be competitive BEVs entering the pick-up segment in volume long before 2030 rolls around, and ditto for the van segment. The pick-up segment is to the USA what the van segment is to Europe, and the key to solving both of them is a plentiful supply of cells. Without lots of cells there is no point in fantasising over paper-products in either segment. These designs require c.120-180 kWh to be competitive. That is coming soon.

My postie drops the snailmail off daily to me on a rural round in farming country here. She drives an electric van. She loves it. The future is here now, it is just unevenly distributed (cf. Gibson).

 

[Stuart Watson]

I do fly frequently to the US ! I have family there and visit every month! (Not to see them … but for my job !)

I’m very familiar with the US.

 

[Mengy]

FWIW, I drove several hundred miles in Arizona in Sept 2019 (a lot of it was between Phoenix and Tucson). I also saw very few EVs (more than TX). I was also in upstate NY for that same trip. The only EV I recall seeing was being picked up by a moderator of MyNissanLeaf who I met up with in his Leaf. I drove maybe ~250 miles in upstate NY during my stay there.

Well that's a really good point. If you didn't physically see a lot of EV's driving around various states in the US three years ago, then the sales data today must certainly be incorrect. I must rethink my position now....

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Regarding surveys about people "considering" hybrids, EVs, or whatever, I've become pretty dubious due to what we end up seeing in the end. Example is Consumer Reports Poll: Americans want higher fuel standards, hybrid cars from 2011
"Moreover, a 56 percent majority is considering purchasing hybrid or electric cars as their next vehicle, and 72 percent of the respondents would consider ownership once availability increases."

Well, in the US, I don't think non-plugin hybrids have ever passed the 10% share mark. This isn't the first time I've seen such a divergence from polls where people would "consider" vs. reality.

The thing is that HEVs don't so radically change the ownership and driving experience as EV. The best part of my Prius experience was when it shut the engine down, but that was always constrained. And I still had to go get gas, just not as often. And I still needed oil changes. And it still had (unpleasant) engine noise. And the regen, while welcome, was limited, and B mode disabled cruise control so cruise couldn't handle the hills.

And, clearly the Prius had worse performance than the overall US market demands. You can get other hybrids with better performance, but then you lose efficiency, which is the primary reason for consideration.

EVs give you a radically different experience, with a number of very significant positives. The negatives, related to charging, are gradually diminishing, and the market coverage is increasing. I see EVs with much greater US market potential than hybrids.

 

[Stuart Watson]

Hybrids are for idiots

 

[Stuart Watson]

Hybrids are only appropriate if BEV’s are not viable … but Tesla made BEVs viable ….