Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

[cusetownusa]

Can someone please remember to bump this thread in 5 years? Thanks

 

[Mengy]

Can someone please remember to bump this thread in 5 years? Thanks

Something tells me as EV adoption continues to increase YoY this thread will be getting lots of bumps along the way!

 

[Graham J]

Alright I'm ready to vote 2032. But which one do I pick, there are two?

 

[SDRick]

Alright I'm ready to vote 2032. But which one do I pick, there are two?

Sorry about that.
I suppose until a moderator can fix it I would choose the real 2032 rather than the typo 2032.

 

[Graham J]

Even if BEVs existed in the space at only a couple $K more, there's still the issue of people who cannot charge at home nor at work nor a place where they regularly spend hours at a time anyway.

I had a thought about this. A quick search suggests the home ownership rate in the US is 65%.

We've all been talking about the first 50% of sales but if we assume it's home owners that switch first the second 50% may be the more interesting half. I suspect it will take a lot longer to reach than the first.

With 50% of sales being BEVs we can assume infrastructure will be much better by then but retrofitting all the apartment parking may end up being as big a challenge as the switch to BEVs itself.

 

[cwerdna]

You don't have to guess, you can look at the screen where it says in plain english he is in the Algarve. If you never did geography at school, or even looked at a holiday brochure, that is in southern Portugal. For clarity Portugal is a country in Europe, on the other side of the Atlantic ocean from USA.

I know where Portugal is. I've never ever in my life heard of Algarve. I figured it was a bogus entry. I've never ever looked at a holiday brochure for Portugal. For sure in school did we never ever go into any depth about Portugal's geography.

What if I started naming random small towns in the US, esp. if they sound bogus like Bird-in-Hand, Weiner, Intercourse, Blue Ball or Vulcan (isn't in the US) or set them in my profile? How about other towns like Walla Walla, Yelm, Baker, Tulare, Tulalip or Snoqualmie? Would you know where these are?

On other forums, I've seen people put these for their locations: Earth, Shangri-la, BFE.

 

[cwerdna]

Well that's a really good point. If you didn't physically see a lot of EV's driving around various states in the US three years ago, then the sales data today must certainly be incorrect. I must rethink my position now....

Umm, you do recall COVID, right? I haven't physically left my state since early Jan 2020 when I went to CES in Vegas.

Electric jolt: Arizona to get millions to develop EV-charging network - Cronkite News - Arizona PBS points to Alternative Fuels Data Center: Maps and Data - Electric Vehicle Registrations by State which if you DL the spreadsheet says they only include BEVs. Arizona had 28,770 EVs out of about 2.4 million registered motor vehicles, or about 1.1%. Should I expect to see a lot of BEVs in the wild?

I later found Table MV-1 - Highway Statistics 2020 - Policy | Federal Highway Administration saying Arizona has 6 million motor vehicles. That would make 0.48% vehicles on AZ roads BEVs.

About Us | TxDMV.gov says "Currently, there are more than 22 million registered vehicles in Texas". The 2nd URL mentions 80,900 BEVs in TX. That works out to be about 0.36%. Should I expect to see a lot of BEVs in the wild there as well?

For NY, there are a surprisingly low 51,870 EVs (considering it is a CARB emission state), out of 11.3 million motor vehicles, or about 0.45%. In that short stint, this time I was in upstate NY. I flew to Albany airport, stayed in Latham and drove to Ticonderoga and back. I recall seeing signs on the highway warning of no cell phone service for nn miles. I also visited Albany briefly.

BTW, hope this poll auto closes or can be closed within a few months from now.

 

[petit_bateau]

I know where Portugal is. I've never ever in my life heard of Algarve. I figured it was a bogus entry. I've never ever looked at a holiday brochure for Portugal. For sure in school did we never ever go into any depth about Portugal's geography.

What if I started naming random small towns in the US, esp. if they sound bogus like Bird-in-Hand, Weiner, Intercourse, Blue Ball or Vulcan (isn't in the US) or set them in my profile? How about other towns like Walla Walla, Yelm, Baker, Tulare, Tulalip or Snoqualmie? Would you know where these are?

On other forums, I've seen people put these for their locations: Earth, Shangri-la, BFE.

The Algarve is perhaps somewhat analagous to Florida, or maybe the Lauderdale area. Smaller than one, bigger than the other. I think most folk in Europe would recognise either.

(personally I'm fairly widely travelled, and read, so my geographic knowledge is unlikely to be a fair comparison)

Anyway, back to the point in this thread. What is your 2030 prediction and why do you think that will be ?

 

[RubberToe]

We are one Middle East skirmish away from $10 gas. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is going to create the biggest energy transition away from natural gas to renewable energy ever seen. The skirmish would have the same effect on the transition to EVs. Even our good friends with all the pickup trucks in Texas will arrive at a certain clarity of thought when gas hits $10.

The Model Y was the best selling vehicle in California in the second quarter. It will be the best selling vehicle in the US in 2023. Like someone said above, we are already in the exponential ramp, you just need to look at the data.

The people who are saying "ain't gonna happen" were the same ones who said nobody will ever buy EV's, said ever knuckle headed EV by GM (can you say Bolt) was a Tesla killer, the Legacy companies will eat Tesla's lunch, yadda, yadda, yadda. Talk is cheap, lets see who is the second company to make 2,000,000 electric vehicles a year. Everything is always going to stay the same, until it doesn't...

2027, check back with me then.

RT

 

[Silicon Desert]

I would be more interested about a pool estimating when ICE vehicles will be completely extinct.

Yea, that thought crossed my mind. With the way things are going in the world today, I hope ICE becomes extinct before we will.

 

[Silicon Desert]

Alright I'm ready to vote 2032. But which one do I pick, there are two?

The first one is on our universe. The second one is in alternate universe where your clone lives

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I had a thought about this. A quick search suggests the home ownership rate in the US is 65%.

We've all been talking about the first 50% of sales but if we assume it's home owners that switch first the second 50% may be the more interesting half. I suspect it will take a lot longer to reach than the first.

With 50% of sales being BEVs we can assume infrastructure will be much better by then but retrofitting all the apartment parking may end up being as big a challenge as the switch to BEVs itself.

The time to worry about apartment buildings is if you have high adoption rates amongst homeowners, but the property market and employers are not affected by it.

 

[FastEddieB]

Hybrids are for idiots

I hope I don’t come across as overly defensive, but I think that paints with too broad a brush.

We owned a 2018 Honda Clarity PHEV for 3 years, and it remains in the family. Great concept - EV when running around locally, and the rough equivalent of a 42 mpg Accord for road trips. My wife and I wanted a Tesla back then, but the $35k M3 was apparently a unicorn, and the cheaper Honda just made more sense, especially with the $7.5k tax incentive. And in 3+ years and over 60,000 miles we had zero maintenance issues. Great car overall.

But we always considered it a “transitional“ vehicle. With our M3LR and it’s 350 est miles of range and the Supercharger network, any fears of range anxiety have been laid to rest over a handful of road trips, and we’re largely committed to BEV’s going forward.

Or maybe we were just idiots in 2018 - hard to say!

 

[DrGriz]

I hope I don’t come across as overly defensive, but I think that paints with too broad a brush.

We owned a 2018 Honda Clarity PHEV for 3 years, and it remains in the family. Great concept - EV when running around locally, and the rough equivalent of a 42 mpg Accord for road trips. My wife and I wanted a Tesla back then, but the $35k M3 was apparently a unicorn, and the cheaper Honda just made more sense, especially with the $7.5k tax incentive. And in 3+ years and over 60,000 miles we had zero maintenance issues. Great car overall.

But we always considered it a “transitional“ vehicle. With our M3LR and it’s 350 est miles of range and the Supercharger network, any fears of range anxiety have been laid to rest over a handful of road trips, and we’re largely committed to BEV’s going forward.

Or maybe we were just idiots in 2018 - hard to say!

There are places (like Idaho) where the charging infrastructure just isn't in place to fully commit to BEVs. There are places you would actually put your life at risk to drive an EV during bad weather, because if you run out of juice, you are screwed. Some heavily traveled highways have no cell service, not to mention that most of the roads in the state have no cell service and certainly no chargers.

Plug in hybrids fill a void. Our solution is to have both a BEV and an ICE vehicle and use them where they meet our needs.

Hybrid vehicles do, however, mean you have almost all of the downsides of an ICE vehicle.

 

[Stuart Watson]

I hope I don’t come across as overly defensive, but I think that paints with too broad a brush.

We owned a 2018 Honda Clarity PHEV for 3 years, and it remains in the family. Great concept - EV when running around locally, and the rough equivalent of a 42 mpg Accord for road trips. My wife and I wanted a Tesla back then, but the $35k M3 was apparently a unicorn, and the cheaper Honda just made more sense, especially with the $7.5k tax incentive. And in 3+ years and over 60,000 miles we had zero maintenance issues. Great car overall.

But we always considered it a “transitional“ vehicle. With our M3LR and it’s 350 est miles of range and the Supercharger network, any fears of range anxiety have been laid to rest over a handful of road trips, and we’re largely committed to BEV’s going forward.

Or maybe we were just idiots in 2018 - hard to say!

You do realise, that the car you mention, had two heavy batteries ? (One to start the engine ) It was equipped with a fuel tank, an Ice engine , an electric motor (well two ! One with the sole purpose of starting the ice engine )

It also had expensive control
equipment for the Electric motor, and of course, control equipment for the ice engine !

Heaps of complexity … heaps of unnecessary cost and weight. Total madness.

Oh the performance of a slug and pitiful economy too ?

Basically, the worst if both worlds. The sooner they disappear the better.

They are only necessary if EV cars are not viable. But EV cars are viable.
Only an imbecile would buy a hybrid.

 

[Stuart Watson]

There are places (like Idaho) where the charging infrastructure just isn't in place to fully commit to BEVs. There are places you would actually put your life at risk to drive an EV during bad weather, because if you run out of juice, you are screwed. Some heavily traveled highways have no cell service, not to mention that most of the roads in the state have no cell service and certainly no chargers.

Plug in hybrids fill a void. Our solution is to have both a BEV and an ICE vehicle and use them where they meet our needs.

Hybrid vehicles do, however, mean you have almost all of the downsides of an ICE vehicle.

Milford your observations are true for Idaho … (I’ve not visited ) buy an efficient Ice car !

Far better than a crappy bloated, complex and inefficient Hybrid ?

 

[Stuart Watson]

I hope I don’t come across as overly defensive, but I think that paints with too broad a brush.

We owned a 2018 Honda Clarity PHEV for 3 years, and it remains in the family. Great concept - EV when running around locally, and the rough equivalent of a 42 mpg Accord for road trips. My wife and I wanted a Tesla back then, but the $35k M3 was apparently a unicorn, and the cheaper Honda just made more sense, especially with the $7.5k tax incentive. And in 3+ years and over 60,000 miles we had zero maintenance issues. Great car overall.

But we always considered it a “transitional“ vehicle. With our M3LR and it’s 350 est miles of range and the Supercharger network, any fears of range anxiety have been laid to rest over a handful of road trips, and we’re largely committed to BEV’s going forward.

Or maybe we were just idiots in 2018 - hard to say!

Nicely worded .. best regards. I dont mean to be aggressive !

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

There are places (like Idaho) where the charging infrastructure just isn't in place to fully commit to BEVs. There are places you would actually put your life at risk to drive an EV during bad weather, because if you run out of juice, you are screwed. Some heavily traveled highways have no cell service, not to mention that most of the roads in the state have no cell service and certainly no chargers.

Plug in hybrids fill a void. Our solution is to have both a BEV and an ICE vehicle and use them where they meet our needs.

Hybrid vehicles do, however, mean you have almost all of the downsides of an ICE vehicle.

The way I think of it is that hybrids take a load off the high-maintenance engine and brakes and put it onto low-maintenance motors and batteries.
Especially so for PHEVs.

And I live in Maine. I tend to head south or east so I'm fine. But up in the North of Maine there's nothing. Even a Tesla, that can charge at Medway, ME, needs to have good destination charging to visit the far northern towns, and the rest of us have nothing. Without destination charging you'd have to cross into Canada and take the TCH, where there are chargers.

 

[DrGriz]

Milford your observations are true for Idaho … (I’ve not visited ) buy an efficient Ice car !

Far better than a crappy bloated, complex and inefficient Hybrid ?

Oh, I agree. Actually, I have an ICE pickup, because that is far more rational. Drive it maybe 2000 miles a year, if that. Everything else we manage with our EV. 12000 miles so far.

There are some people who have done well with a plug in hybrid (RAV4). Not a solution for me, but it works for them.

By the way, Stuart, you've made it clear that you don't understand the niche situations. Maybe instead of downvoting circumstances you admit you are clueless about you could use the opportunity to learn?

 

[ThomasD]

I think we will see more Hybrids in heavy duty applications. Ambulances, Firetrucks, Police vehicles and Pickups.