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Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"
- Thread starter SDRick
- Start date
Stuart Watson
Member
Stuart Watson
Member
Didn’t people say exactly the same about the 5 seat luxury sedan ?
Then Elon launched the model S ….
Stuart Watson
Member
Niche situations? Can you please tell me more ?
From where I stand; “Hybrid” cars present the combined drawbacks of both EV and ICE cars.
I really think they are only necessary if EV cars are not viable …
But as we all know, EV’s (especially Tesla’s with the supercharger network,) are viable.
From where I stand; “Hybrid” cars present the combined drawbacks of both EV and ICE cars.
I really think they are only necessary if EV cars are not viable …
But as we all know, EV’s (especially Tesla’s with the supercharger network,) are viable.
"I really think they are only necessary if EV cars are not viable …"
OK, then.
So you won't accept a situation that meets your own criteria? Nearly 2 million people live in Idaho (and no, they are not spread out evenly like you imply).Yeah … so your anecdotal map, (you chose somewhere obscure where there are just 17 people for every square mile
Hybrids are a valid choice ?
Really ?
You’ll have to do better than that.
OK, then.
I have seen the specs for the cybertruck. I see a lot of these vehicles in my travels and the one pictured has a 5,000lb payload capacity. How far will my neighbor be able to tow their 4 place Horse trailer with tack room with the cybertruck? Or a flatbed trailer with 10 round bails of hay on it.You haven’t seen Elons spec for the cybertruk ?
Hmmm
My county doesn't list any electric vehicle charging stations except for plugin at campgrounds. The nearest Tesla Supercharger is 40 minutes from my House in Elizabethtown Kentucky. Electric Vehicle Charging Stations by county in Kentucky.
www.libertyplugins.com
Kentucky Public Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging Stations | Liberty Plugins
Public EV charging stations near Kentucky.
EV market share should grow around 65-70% per year which would cross over 50% in 2026-27. Considering ~25% of auto consumers already plan to buy an EV for their next purchase this is not as far-fetched as some people might think. 25% of Americans Want to Buy an EV as Next Car, Says AAA Survey - TeslaNorth.com
If auto manufacturers can't get their act together on the production side, buyers will hold out for the EV they want, overall sales will drop and EV share of the market will increase. Osborne effect FTW.
If auto manufacturers can't get their act together on the production side, buyers will hold out for the EV they want, overall sales will drop and EV share of the market will increase. Osborne effect FTW.
Stuart Watson
Member
Why would you expect a Tesla supercharger near your house ?My county doesn't list any electric vehicle charging stations except for plugin at campgrounds. The nearest Tesla Supercharger is 40 minutes from my House in Elizabethtown Kentucky. Electric Vehicle Charging Stations by county in Kentucky.
Kentucky Public Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging Stations | Liberty Plugins
Public EV charging stations near Kentucky.
Charging at home, means you always leave home with a full charge.
Superchargers are see when you are away from home.
Well, if I lived in Podunk I'd want some kind of charging alternative because I'd have to have something to deal with outages. Generators are too inefficient for any significant charging.Why would you expect a Tesla supercharger near your house ?
Charging at home, means you always leave home with a full charge.
Superchargers are see when you are away from home.
But Podunk's density is very low, so I wouldn't consider my situation in Podunk indicative of the wider population, and I'd expect infrastructure to get closer as wider ownership increased. I'd just need chargers on my key travel routes, especially my commute,
I think we can all agree that the 2% of people that live in Podunk will be more likely to keep ICE vehicles for a little longer.
The outages thing is mostly a non issue. Gasoline pumps don't work well without electricity. And not even 2% of the US is in areas that have intermittent electricity service. But, sure, nice to have a supercharger in a relatively short drive in case your house burns down and you have to live in a tent for 3 months. And I am pretty sure that >98% of the US population has a supercharger in driving range from their house.
Edge cases are edge cases. Heck, more people might live in Manhattan than extreme Podunk and they don't even own a car.
Not fair to look at home ownership exactly when it comes to charging NEW cars. First - apartment dwellers are, on average, not as rich as homeowners and therefore not as likely to buy a new car. Second, SFH renters can charge at home. Third, you know that most every parking lot at apartments has lighting. This lighting runs on electricity..... It isn't that hard to put outlets in. Sure, they might be level 1. So 40 miles a night - I think we can guess that apartment dwellers tend to have shorter commutes than home owners.
Complete guess but I think that 80% of new cars are bought by people with garages/off street parking. I will say that I live in a pretty high garage area but 7 years ago ran into a RN at a charging station who lived in an apartment without charging access. She drove an original Leaf - yep 80 miles or so. We didn't have chademo in the area at the time. Imagine if she had a modern Tesla with supercharging at our local Target....(and 20 miles in each direction on the interstates).
The outages thing is mostly a non issue. Gasoline pumps don't work well without electricity. And not even 2% of the US is in areas that have intermittent electricity service. But, sure, nice to have a supercharger in a relatively short drive in case your house burns down and you have to live in a tent for 3 months. And I am pretty sure that >98% of the US population has a supercharger in driving range from their house.
Edge cases are edge cases. Heck, more people might live in Manhattan than extreme Podunk and they don't even own a car.
Not fair to look at home ownership exactly when it comes to charging NEW cars. First - apartment dwellers are, on average, not as rich as homeowners and therefore not as likely to buy a new car. Second, SFH renters can charge at home. Third, you know that most every parking lot at apartments has lighting. This lighting runs on electricity..... It isn't that hard to put outlets in. Sure, they might be level 1. So 40 miles a night - I think we can guess that apartment dwellers tend to have shorter commutes than home owners.
Complete guess but I think that 80% of new cars are bought by people with garages/off street parking. I will say that I live in a pretty high garage area but 7 years ago ran into a RN at a charging station who lived in an apartment without charging access. She drove an original Leaf - yep 80 miles or so. We didn't have chademo in the area at the time. Imagine if she had a modern Tesla with supercharging at our local Target....(and 20 miles in each direction on the interstates).
There are still many supercharger travel holes in the US. Probably half the land mass. Yes, they aren't heavily populated, but they are places with EVs can't go without great difficulty. And people do go even though they don't live there. Many of the national parks fall into this category.
Try going to Glacier Park in an EV. 3 million visitors last year and, what, 4 or 6 destination chargers at nearby hotels.
And in winter, when range is cut in half? A lot of people want their car to take them anywhere. They may only have one and they don't just want it for commuting. Whether it affects you or not, there are a lot of people who won't buy an EV until they can go anywhere they want in it.
I am glad that this is being addressed in part by the infrastructure bill, and I have been part of the state-led discussion regarding locations for Idaho. It's too bad Tesla hasn't released CCS adapters in the US and has cut them off from South Korea. We need major buildout before we'll get 50% adoption.
View attachment 835772
Try going to Glacier Park in an EV. 3 million visitors last year and, what, 4 or 6 destination chargers at nearby hotels.
And in winter, when range is cut in half? A lot of people want their car to take them anywhere. They may only have one and they don't just want it for commuting. Whether it affects you or not, there are a lot of people who won't buy an EV until they can go anywhere they want in it.
I am glad that this is being addressed in part by the infrastructure bill, and I have been part of the state-led discussion regarding locations for Idaho. It's too bad Tesla hasn't released CCS adapters in the US and has cut them off from South Korea. We need major buildout before we'll get 50% adoption.
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Norbert
TSLA will win
That's not necessary for EVs to reach 50% market share.
However as 50% market share for new cars is reached, many things will change. Battery tech is still improving quite quickly, and R&D will receive much higher funding, so range will increase, and price will be low enough for there to be extra long range versions of every kind of vehicle. Charging stations will be all over the place, many more than gas stations now.
Norbert
TSLA will win
California has about 20x the population of Idaho, but it looks like 50x the number of SuperChargers. That's with an EV market share of about 12.5% in Feb 2022.
Assuming that the number of SuperChargers increases linearly with market share, at 50% it will be 200x the current level in Idaho, devided by 20x the population is 10x.
So from that you could expect that in Idaho it will be 10x the number of SuperChargers for a 50% market share (70 instead of 7). I would expect even more as Tesla has time to build out its network, perhaps many more. I would also expect that there will be a solution for using non-Tesla fast chargers. It might just take a bit longer for Idaho to get there.
I hope you are right. I have heard from people who work with and for Tesla that additional superchargers are being planned for us, but right now there is one 8 stall 150 kW charger for the most metropolitan part of the state (3/4 million people). And I see Teslas everywhere there. They are well behind the curve.
Note in the graph above that the curve for cars rises rapidly to a peak in 1925, then stalls out until after WWII. I believe it will be similar for EVs as cars are by far the most expensive item on that graph. Lots of people can only afford used cars. Used EV prices are likely to remain disproportionately high and thus a deterrent to price sensitive customers. That 1925-1945 stagnant period kept lower income people from buying any car. During the 2030s low income people will continue to buy used ICE because the cheap purchase price overrides the operating advantages of an EV. The above rationale applies not only to within the US but to more vs. less affluent countries.
Overall valid points but the 1930’s were the Great Depression and then WWII where auto production was completely halted so hard to use this time period.
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