Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

[E90alex]

And less motivation to solve that problem would help?

It’s not an either or situation. We can make all ICE vehicles hybrids while simultaneously building out EV volume and charging infrastructure.

It should have been a gradual transition from ICE to hybrid to PHEV over the last couple decades instead of going 0-100 with ICE immediately to BEV.

 

[nwdiver]

It should have been a gradual transition from ICE to hybrid to PHEV over the last couple decades instead of going 0-100 with ICE immediately to BEV.

I agree the PHEV thing should have been a good idea. But most people aren't... um... 'sophisticated' enough to grasp the concept to energy. So a lot of people just don't plug their cars in because they don't understand why it matters if they don't need to. Stuff I was 100% sure was satire... um... wasn't because I met some of these people.... It's going to be easier to just skip PHEVs than to try to fix our 3rd world education system.

... people think a clay pot can function as an energy amplifier.....

... people think you can connect two motors together as a source electricity.

 

[nwdiver]

PHEVs are the 1/3 lb burger. Need products for people as they are... not as they should be.

.... I should sell 1/5 lb burgers for the same price as the quarter pounder!!!

 

[h2ofun]

PHEVs are the 1/3 lb burger. Need products for people as they are... not as they should be.

.... I should sell 1/5 lb burgers for the same price as the quarter pounder!!!

The added cost for PHEV, and complexity make no sense. I love driving my tesla, but would NEVER give up my minivan. I hope to replace with a new minivan in either 2024 or 2025 and I hope it is hybrid. To spend like 10K more for a PHEV, vs like 1.5K for a hybrid, well, ...

 

[nwdiver]

The added cost for PHEV, and complexity make no sense. I love driving my tesla, but would NEVER give up my minivan. I hope to replace with a new minivan in either 2024 or 2025 and I hope it is hybrid. To spend like 10K more for a PHEV, vs like 1.5K for a hybrid, well, ...

What hybrid is only $1500 more than a non-hybrid? A hybrid is ~95% of the way to a PHEV. All it lacks is a way to charge the battery from not gasoline. It seems insane to add an electric motor and batteries but the only way to charge the battery is essentially from the engine. Regenerative braking is still just recapturing energy from the engine.

 

[cwerdna]

What hybrid is only $1500 more than a non-hybrid? A hybrid is ~95% of the way to a PHEV. All it lacks is a way to charge the battery from not gasoline. It seems insane to add an electric motor and batteries but the only way to charge the battery is essentially from the engine. Regenerative braking is still just recapturing energy from the engine.

I've not looked into the price delta but the first one I looked was Corolla Hybrid. From New Cars, Trucks, SUVs & Hybrids | Toyota Official Site, if you click on Vehicles, the starting MSRP is only $1400 higher on the Corolla Hybrid vs non.

Besides next HyCam, some vehicles have just not been available as pure ICE only. Kia Niro for the US (can't speak to elsewhere) has been available only in 3 versions for current gen and previous gen: HEV, PHEV and EV.

While trying to look up/confirm something else, I found Lincoln hybrid costs the same as a gas-only car from 2010.

As for "95%" of the way to... well, besides the missing inlet and on-board charger, HEVs usually have considerably smaller batteries (physical and in capacity) than PHEVs. I also stopped tracking NiMH vs. li-ion but for awhile as Lithium-ion vs. nickel-metal hydride: Toyota still likes both for its hybrids alludes to, Toyota was using NiMH on some trim levels of some versions of hybrids.

The years seem a bit off in the article. For (gen 3) '10 to '15 Prius, the HEVs were NiMH only. The '12 to '15 Plug-in Prius (aka PiP) was li-ion.

For gen 4 Prius ('16 to '22), the plug-in (Prime) was always li-ion. For non-plugins, some trims were NiMH and some were li-ion.

Gen 1 and 2 were only HEV and only NiMH.

 

[nwdiver]

I've not looked into the price delta but the first one I looked was Corolla Hybrid. From New Cars, Trucks, SUVs & Hybrids | Toyota Official Site, if you click on Vehicles, the starting MSRP is only $1400 higher on the Corolla Hybrid vs non.

Besides next HyCam, some vehicles have just not been available as pure ICE only. Kia Niro for the US (can't speak to elsewhere) has been available only in 3 versions for current gen and previous gen: HEV, PHEV and EV.

While trying to look up/confirm something else, I found Lincoln hybrid costs the same as a gas-only car from 2010.

As for "95%" of the way to... well, besides the missing inlet and on-board charger, HEVs usually have considerably smaller batteries (physical and in capacity) than PHEVs. I also stopped tracking NiMH vs. li-ion but for awhile as Lithium-ion vs. nickel-metal hydride: Toyota still likes both for its hybrids alludes to, Toyota was using NiMH on some trim levels of some versions of hybrids.

The years seem a bit off in the article. For (gen 3) '10 to '15 Prius, the HEVs were NiMH only. The '12 to '15 Plug-in Prius (aka PiP) was li-ion.

For gen 4 Prius ('16 to '22), the plug-in (Prime) was always li-ion. For non-plugins, some trims were NiMH and some were li-ion.

Gen 1 and 2 were only HEV and only NiMH.

More than likely this is the OEMs lowering the margins of hybrid to make them more attractive to improve their CAFE score. Think about it. A hybrid needs a battery and a motor and all the electronics that interconnect everything. And it has a battery... why not add a charger?

The only thing more wasteful than a car with a battery you can't plug-in are all the cars you can plug in with owners too lazy to actually plug them in....

 

[cwerdna]

More than likely this is the OEMs lowering the margins of hybrid to make them more attractive to improve their CAFE score. Think about it. A hybrid needs a battery and a motor and all the electronics that interconnect everything. And it has a battery... why not add a charger?

The only thing more wasteful than a car with a battery you can't plug-in are all the cars you can plug in with owners too lazy to actually plug them in....

There are are other considerations. Too bad I can't find the old threads related to I believe this guy: 2502 Miles 299MPG in a Prius II PHEV!. There were concerns about sufficient lubrication I believe within the power split device (has MG1, MG2 and a planetary gearset) with the ICE not running much. He posted Caution PHEV owners. Extended EV use and high fuel dilution in oil..

There were potential concerns about gasoline going bad so gen 1 Volt had New problem, new solution: Chevrolet Volt's, If you have problems reading the text, try New problem, new solution: Chevrolet Volt's.

As I said, HEVs usually have tiny battery packs. 30 Days of the 2010 Toyota Prius: Day 12, Battery Pack mentions 1.6 kWh. That was gen 3 Prius ('10 to '15 HEV).

5 Things You Should Know About the All-New 2016 Toyota Prius (gen 4) says:
"Some of this weight savings comes from the inherent power density of the Li-ion chemistry, but the new battery also is smaller. Its 0.75-kWh capacity is barely half of the NiMH battery’s 1.31 kWh. (The NiMH pack is pictured here.) This difference is possible because the Li-ion battery can reliably use about 70 percent of its capacity without compromising its life. The older battery can use only about 40 percent, meaning that it is typically not charged above 70 percent of capacity and not discharged below 30 percent. Either way, the usable capacity is a little over 0.5 kWh."

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/03/20160323-priusprime.html says:
"Toyota also expects the Prius Prime, equipped with an 8.8 kWh battery pack, to offer an estimated 22 miles (35.4 km) of all-electric range—twice the electric range of the previous model with its 4.4 kWh pack—and to drive at speeds up to 84 mph (135 km/h)."

The above is comparing Gen 4 Prius Prime (the plug-in version) vs. '12 to '15 PiP.

Also, gen 3 PiP had a max EV only speed of 62 mph (see Toyota Introduces 2012 Prius Plug-in Hybrid - Toyota USA Newsroom). I owned a gen 2 Prius for 13 years and max speed w/o ICE running was around ~41 mph (memory foggy).

Of course high fuel economy vehicles such as (good) hybrids, PHEVs and EVs raises an automaker's CAFE score.

 

[E90alex]

What hybrid is only $1500 more than a non-hybrid? A hybrid is ~95% of the way to a PHEV. All it lacks is a way to charge the battery from not gasoline. It seems insane to add an electric motor and batteries but the only way to charge the battery is essentially from the engine. Regenerative braking is still just recapturing energy from the engine.

Corolla hybrid

The point of a hybrid is to make the ICE more efficient. Not to eliminate gas use.

Corolla Hybrid vs Corolla is 43% more efficient at 50 mpg combined vs 35. That means in one year of average 13,000 miles of driving, the hybrid uses ~100 less gallons of fuel.

Now sure, a comparable BEV vs an ICE only Corolla, you would need 0 gallons of fuel and therefore save the whole ~370 gallons of fuel needed.

But the Corolla hybrid has a 1.3 kWh battery. Compared to a BEV like the Model 3 with an ~80 kWh battery. The materials required to make one BEV battery could make over 60 Corolla Hybrid batteries.

So now multiply ~100 gallons of fuel saved with a hybrid by 60 hybrids and you save 6000 gallons of fuel use with 60 hybrids compared to saving ~370 gallons with one BEV using the same amount of battery.

I’m not saying hybrids are the permanent long term solution, not by a long shot.

But for right now it’s a no brainer relatively easy to make switch and governments should have required all ICE to be hybrid at this point because it would significantly reduce fossil fuel use with zero changes in fueling infrastructure and without having to make people relearn how they use and refuel/recharge their vehicles.

 

[E90alex]

More than likely this is the OEMs lowering the margins of hybrid to make them more attractive to improve their CAFE score. Think about it. A hybrid needs a battery and a motor and all the electronics that interconnect everything. And it has a battery... why not add a charger?

The only thing more wasteful than a car with a battery you can't plug-in are all the cars you can plug in with owners too lazy to actually plug them in....

A hybrid has a ~1kWh battery. A plug in hybrid needs 15-20x that if not more.

There would be very little point in plugging in a 1 kWh battery for a hybrid. It would be used up by the time you get out of your subdivision.

A regular hybrid electric motor also is barely strong enough to get the car moving. It’s not simply a PHEV without a plug. A PHEV has a much more robust motor and larger battery capacity. That’s why PHEV costs so much more than a hybrid.

 

[nwdiver]

A hybrid has a ~1kWh battery. A plug in hybrid needs 15-20x that if not more.

There would be very little point in plugging in a 1 kWh battery for a hybrid. It would be used up by the time you get out of your subdivision.

A regular hybrid electric motor also is barely strong enough to get the car moving. It’s not simply a PHEV without a plug. A PHEV has a much more robust motor and larger battery capacity. That’s why PHEV costs so much more than a hybrid.

Battery costs are ~$200/kWh. Every kWh get you ~4 miles of range. If you've already got the electric motor and all the other electronics why not go just a little farther?

 

[cwerdna]

Battery costs are ~$200/kWh. Every kWh get you ~4 miles of range. If you've already got the electric motor and all the other electronics why not go just a little farther?

We already indicated numerous issues and things required. The market has spoken in the US. From Why automakers are turning to hybrids in the middle of the industry's EV transition:

"HEVs accounted for 8.3% of U.S. car sales, about 1.2 million vehicles sold, through November of this year. That share is up 2.8 percentage points compared with total sales last year.

EVs made up 6.9% of sales heading into December, or roughly 976,560 units, up 1.7 percentage points compared with total sales last year. Sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs, accounted for only 1% of U.S. sales through November."

And, although the US isn't Japan, I posted some new figures for Japan at Who can catch Tesla ? They seem to be experiencing exponential growth…... You can see the dominance HEVs there have over PHEVs and BEVs.

 

[David_Cary]

This HEV, PHEV, or EV discussion happened 10 years ago and seems a little dated.

Of course, HEV should be required and that is a better use of limited battery capacity. I think everyone knows that.

PHEV is an incremental increased cost. But it is a pretty big increment. At least 10 kwh vs 1 kwh of capacity, an on board charger, a more robust motor, a system to make sure ICE runs or is ok not running. That is reasonably pricey - maybe $3k that you want to get $6k for on a sale.

At some battery cost, another $5k in battery for a full EV to save $3k in all the ICE components seems to make sense. But buyers don't make sense.

It is much easier to make an EV with good acceleration without combined ICE/EV modes.

I think (P)HEV have a role but it would be better to see all EVs in 10 years. What I don't see is significant investment on PHEV which makes sense as only a transitional step. The investment on these things is really expensive. Tesla doesn't have to invest anything on a powertrain. The model Y is the number one selling vehicle in the world and is using mostly 10 year old tech. Sure the battery is getting tweaked but mostly my 2023 is like my 2015 S (RIP) with minor bugs and fixes (and near worthless cameras). Who wants to spend $10B on coming up with a great PHEV....

That being said, I might be making a great PHEV large Truck/SUV. It doesn't seem like we have the appetite anytime soon to outlaw it and there is a large proportion of the US that wants it. Given it a 50 mile range, 3 rows/full sized bed, towing capacity. It would displace 2/3 gas use which would pay for incremental cost. It could be sold for at least 10 years to help recoup development cost. It could be the goto high end family vehicle for a really long time.

 

[cwerdna]

Ford cuts planned 2024 production of electric F-150 Lightning in half

It marks a major reversal after Ford significantly increased plant capacity for the Lightning EV in 2023.

www.cnbc.com

 

[h2ofun]

Ford cuts planned 2024 production of electric F-150 Lightning in half

It marks a major reversal after Ford significantly increased plant capacity for the Lightning EV in 2023.

www.cnbc.com

Dah, and they try to brag about such LOW sales numbers. Tesla just laughs

 

[cwerdna]

I couldn't disagree more. I think technology, rather than government pressure, will drive ev adoption.

I'll point to Trump's Christmas message today since someone else posted it.

A certain person could roll back EV tax credits, roll back fuel economy standards (he already did it before) and roll back other mandates/incentives aimed at getting the industry to shift to EVs. And, he already said that on day 1, he wants to "drill, drill, drill.”

They are simply better vehicles. Better in usability, better in economy, better in technology, because they are, for the most part, all newly designed vehicles.

People who can't charge at work nor home will have issues that will not make up for better in "usability" and economy. As for technology, there are so many technologies and features on new vehicles that aren't EV-specific at all. Tesla (for instance) is way behind on numerous features that they still don't and have never offered but have been available on other vehicles (some of them being ICEVs) for years.

Add to that the knowledge that you are in fact helping your grandchildren's grandchildren to have a better life, and I think people will be easily swayed over once they understand. Each new EV sold is 10 to 20 more people getting exposed to the idea, and the advantages. The growth could be exponential. Unfortunately, the battery supply will not be able to keep up. And that will not be a 100% pure effort, to be sure. But still better than spewing out fumes from every single vehicle that you drive on the road. Not to mention the super old foundry factories that are creating all of those ice engines. Again, new development means new, more efficient, less polluting, factories.

You act as though there is a large % of adults in the US who care about this enough (and actually realize this) to actually vote w/their wallets. There's probably 1/3 of the country, if not more who don't care nor believe, let alone would take the next step.

 

[bruce4000]

I'll point to Trump's Christmas message today since someone else posted it.

A certain person could roll back EV tax credits, roll back fuel economy standards (he already did it before) and roll back other mandates/incentives aimed at getting the industry to shift to EVs. And, he already said that on day 1, he wants to "drill, drill, drill.”

People who can't charge at work nor home will have issues that will not make up for better in "usability" and economy. As for technology, there are so many technologies and features on new vehicles that aren't EV-specific at all. Tesla (for instance) is way behind on numerous features that they still don't and have never offered but have been available on other vehicles (some of them being ICEVs) for years.

You act as though there is a large % of adults in the US who care about this enough (and actually realize this) to actually vote w/their wallets. There's probably 1/3 of the country, if not more who don't care nor believe, let alone would take the next step.

Pretty sad there are that many people who don’t care about the future but you’re not wrong.

 

[kpanda17]

Do we think that Ford, GM, Stellantis and others will promote the NACS adapter for use in 2024 with the Tesla supercharging network?
If this happens, it will start to create momentum into 2025 where NACS will be natively on vehicles and then the real rush starts
were at 9%+ in Dec 2023, ill est 13% by 12/2024 and 22% 12/2025 with 50% by 12/2030
once people see the point of sale credits and NACS in use, the ramp will move steadily

BUT
real issues are
IRA and very tough battery build and content rules hindering the tax credits on more vehicles when purchased, although leasing helps this with no req
and hybrids and fodder being the biggest short term threat, the big vehicle manufactures are attempting to fake out consumers stating you need a hybrid, for various lying, reasons

sad to say

in summary, until NACS is running on all EVs, cheaper tax credit vehicles show up, hybrid fodder stops, 50% might not happen until 2033
hate to acknowledge it

 

[cwerdna]

Do we think that Ford, GM, Stellantis and others will promote the NACS adapter for use in 2024 with the Tesla supercharging network?

Ford and GM, probably. Stellantis? AFAIK, they still haven't signed up nor signaled their switch to NACS. I'm looking at the Automaker table at Tesla NACS Charger Adoption Tracker - EVStation.

And, Stellantis still doesn't sell any BEVs nor DC FC-capable vehicles in the US at the moment. They've never shipped a consumer DC FC-capable consumer vehicle in the US yet (have shipped many in Europe) and last sold BEVs (compliance car gen 1 Fiat 500e) in the US years ago.

I'm guessing (gen 2) The New FIAT® 500e | An Electric Subcompact SUV Arriving Soon which says available early 2024 is the soonest we'll get a DC FC-capable vehicle from them in the US.

once people see the point of sale credits and NACS in use, the ramp will move steadily
...
BUT
real issues are
IRA and very tough battery build and content rules hindering the tax credits on more vehicles when purchased, although leasing helps this with no req
and hybrids and fodder being the biggest short term threat, the big vehicle manufactures are attempting to fake out consumers stating you need a

Point of sale credits are useless for me due to the income cap.

And yes, the requirements (Alternative Fuels Data Center: Electric Vehicle (EV) and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) Tax Credit) get tougher each year and for many, it's a non-starter due to income cap or vehicle not being assembled in North America. The commercial lease loophole helps if the automaker/leasing arm passes along the savings to lessees but it could get closed.

I still stand by my vote of after 2040.

 

[kpanda17]

skipping Stellantis

were talking mass adoption, inside the IRA income cap
for them, point of sale $ will be a big deal, but still need to know they can charge at Tesla with an adapter in 2024
lets hope they DONT close the lease loophole until more cheap and IRA qualifying vehicles arrive

but for GM this could be a massive year for their BEVs if they can get the software issues fixed, ie just stopped selling the Blazer temporarily
here are the 2024 list qualifying BEVs:
Chevy: Bolt, Blazer, Silverado EV, and Equinox.
Tesla: Model 3 Performance, Model Y Performance, and Model X.
Ford: F-150 Lightning.
Cadillac: Lyriq.
Chrysler: Pacifica PHEV.

Tesla is laser focused on the M2 qualifying for the IRA fully and production starts 12/2024 or 2025Q1, slowly but remember clam shell manuf with robots
revolutionizing vehicle manufacturing

in the short term BEV adoption is slowed by
qualifying 2024 vehicles is very short, no selection
big auto only promoting hybrids, and creating distance and discouraging buyers

think 2024 will be very strange for BEV sales at the low end, of which with the IRA there is none
leasing will be big
hybrids will sell in big numbers
2025, things will get back to normal