Prediction: Model X price will be reduced to $78K in January 2024

[Tiger]

I was pretty intrigued with the EV9. The space and the practicality was nice but it once the specs were released it was a no-go.

What in particular? Performance?

 

[dinosoar888]

$79,990 + $7500 incentive plus local State rebates makes a nice sandwich (Yes that bread commercial from the late 70's)

Haven't seen any $79990 model X demos with low miles AND big discounts cause they probably get scooped up fast!

EV9 = Korean escalade

 

[Hbcubs]

What in particular? Performance?

Performance and range. I was only looking at the GT-Line and it’s underwhelming. Plus I guarantee dealer markups are gonna be wild for the EV9.

 

[Anish3232]

$79,990 + $7500 incentive plus local State rebates makes a nice sandwich (Yes that bread commercial from the late 70's)

Haven't seen any $79990 model X demos with low miles AND big discounts cause they probably get scooped up fast!

EV9 = Korean escalade

Rebate goes off MSRP even if they discount demos to below $80k it won't qualify

 

[stlgrym3]

are we pretty certain there will be another price drop on X prior to Dec 31st? what's the odd? 50/50, 75/25?

 

[domonas]

are we pretty certain there will be another price drop on X prior to Dec 31st? what's the odd? 50/50, 75/25?

Completely unknown. All guesses at this point.

 

[NJturtlePower]

are we pretty certain there will be another price drop on X prior to Dec 31st? what's the odd? 50/50, 75/25?

Doubtful considering they are trying to still fulfill orders from the 1st week in Sept. when they dropped the prices last, my 9/4 order included...still no VIN and an EDD #6 now of Oct. 20th to Nov. 10th.

Early Oct. orders are already showing delivery timelines pushed into Jan. so any more sales now that they can't complete by year end is pointless.

IMO only reduction we'll see is maybe in Jan. to offset the Federal incentive that's expected to be at least partially cut. So if the X only qualifies for $3750 next year, Tesla might reduce the price by that much.

Look at the direct Loyalty incentive cuts already since early Sept....was $1000 for S/X. then $500, now $250. No reason for any more incentives with an already growing production backlog.

 

[Neon001]

Doubtful considering they are trying to still fulfill orders from the 1st week in Sept. when they dropped the prices last, my 9/4 order included...still no VIN and an EDD #6 now of Oct. 20th to Nov. 10th.

Early Oct. orders are already showing delivery timelines pushed into Jan. so any more sales now that they can't complete by year end is pointless.

IMO only reduction we'll see is maybe in Jan. to offset the Federal incentive that's expected to be at least partially cut. So if the X only qualifies for $3750 next year, Tesla might reduce the price by that much.

Look at the direct Loyalty incentive cuts already since early Sept....was $1000 for S/X. then $500, now $250. No reason for any more incentives with an already growing production backlog.

Adding to this, I've seen some folks who ordered recently reporting EDD ranges extending into Feb of next year. That backlog doesn't appear to be shrinking.

Then again, maybe the tax credit gets cut in half as of the new year and Elon lowers prices to compensate. Who knows. What I do know is that right now, the MX is a good value compared to the rest of the market.

 

[dinosoar888]

Rebate goes off MSRP even if they discount demos to below $80k it won't qualify

Yeah i've seen model x's with the $79990 msrp with no options (22's, yoke or cream/white) sell quick only those get the rebate. Have yet to see magic number model x's designated as demos discounted under the $79,990 because people snatch them up and the dealer has X's with options that push it over the $79,990 mark in stock demo or not. For instance a no options relatively low miles demo X with the $79,990 sticker price selling for $76,990.


I know, Thanks!!!

 

[Tiger]

Judging from the current pace of things, the EoY discounts are going to be sweet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1714738623742906439

I'd guess they will try to purge inventory from all new 2023 models.

 

[backunit]

are we pretty certain there will be another price drop on X prior to Dec 31st? what's the odd? 50/50, 75/25?

I think there will be huge incentives to sell inventory Xes at year end. a month ago there was near zero inventory in South Florida for Model Xes. Now, inventory shows about 30 Xes available in my area. I assume these are people who put down the $250 and walked away, either because of a delivery refusal, financing costs too high, inability to qualify for financing, or some other reason. The price slash generated a huge number of orders, but I think a lot of those orders will be abandoned at delivery, leaving Tesla with a real inventory problem. These theories are all buttressed by EM's total meltdown on the Tesla earnings call yesterday.

 

[NJturtlePower]

I think there will be huge incentives to sell inventory Xes at year end. a month ago there was near zero inventory in South Florida for Model Xes. Now, inventory shows about 30 Xes available in my area. I assume these are people who put down the $250 and walked away, either because of a delivery refusal, financing costs too high, inability to qualify for financing, or some other reason. The price slash generated a huge number of orders, but I think a lot of those orders will be abandoned at delivery, leaving Tesla with a real inventory problem. These theories are all buttressed by EM's total meltdown on the Tesla earnings call yesterday.

Probably just the psycho's obsessed with 2024 VIN's. Again I say there is very little meat left on the bones for S/X profits as they are priced currently IMO. Plenty of buyers that don't qualify for the Federal incentives that will scoop those inventory deals without hesitation regardless if that's $500 or $1000 off around the holidays.

Swapping the Federal credit loss amount ($3750 likely) for a price drop in Jan. 2024 maybe is all I'm betting on.... The Base X is a STEAL at $79k! (or basically $71500 after the Federal $7.5k and $1k loyalty I jumped on early Sept.)

Funny how people are expecting more and more now when the offers are already so good.... where were all ya'll when everyone was buying S/X in early and mid 2023?

On the other hand I agree they'll be purging vehicles, but it'll be all the 3's and Y's with the refreshes (Highland/Juniper) coming soon.

 

[backunit]

Probably just the psycho's obsessed with 2024 VIN's. Again I say there is very little meat left on the bones for S/X profits as they are priced currently IMO. Plenty of buyers that don't qualify for the Federal incentives that will scoop those inventory deals without hesitation regardless if that's $500 or $1000 off around the holidays.

Swapping the Federal credit loss amount ($3750 likely) for a price drop in Jan. 2024 maybe is all I'm betting on.... The Base X is a STEAL at $79k! (or basically $71500 after the Federal $7.5k and $1k loyalty I jumped on early Sept.)

Funny how people are expecting more and more now when the offers are already so good.... where were all ya'll when everyone was buying S/X in early and mid 2023?

On the other hand I agree they'll be purging vehicles, but it'll be all the 3's and Y's with the refreshes (Highland/Juniper) coming soon.

Maybe not big discounting on the X MSRP, but probably throwing out freebies like free supercharging for 3 years or free FSD, etc.

 

[backunit]

Swapping the Federal credit loss amount ($3750 likely) for a price drop in Jan. 2024 maybe is all I'm betting on.... The Base X is a STEAL at $79k! (or basically $71500 after the Federal $7.5k and $1k loyalty I jumped on early Sept.)

Still amazes me that people who qualify for the tax credit will spend $79,999 for a car. I would be stressing!

 

[mathnerd88]

Still amazes me that people who qualify for the tax credit will spend $79,999 for a car. I would be stressing!

Why? People can make up to $299,999 a year after MAGI. A $80k car is basically a drop in the bucket for them. Also, there are some people who met the requirements for 2022 MAGI but not in 2023 can still claim in 2023.

 

[backunit]

Why? People can make up to $299,999 a year after MAGI. A $80k car is basically a drop in the bucket for them. Also, there are some people who met the requirements for 2022 MAGI but not in 2023 can still claim in 2023.

Just seems like $299,999 is not a lot. After tax, even in a red state, that's only $225,000~ in after tax income. And spending $87,000+ on a car (including sales tax etc) maybe not so good idea. Just sayin...

 

[backunit]

Just seems like $299,999 is not a lot. After tax, even in a red state, that's only $225,000~ in after tax income. And spending $87,000+ on a car (including sales tax etc) maybe not so good idea. Just sayin...

That said, I will gladly borrow $96k at 3.99% for an MXP and put $96k into Ally Financial 3 year paper yielding 8%~, and enjoy that positive carry, even after tax. Ally is TBTF. This is not financial advice.

 

[mathnerd88]

Just seems like $299,999 is not a lot. After tax, even in a red state, that's only $225,000~ in after tax income. And spending $87,000+ on a car (including sales tax etc) maybe not so good idea. Just sayin...

You're also forgetting the tax credit of $7500. $225k take home income is around $18.75k a month, which is pretty hefty. An $80k car financed with $0 down is like $1200 a month for 72 months. I can't imagine a scenario where taking home $18.75k per month after taxes is not enough to afford an $80k car.

 

[NJturtlePower]

Just seems like $299,999 is not a lot. After tax, even in a red state, that's only $225,000~ in after tax income. And spending $87,000+ on a car (including sales tax etc) maybe not so good idea. Just sayin...

ZERO EV sales tax in NJ and a good down payment... no problem. You only live once....

I throw $1k a month at my Model 3 loan, now I'll do the same on the X and have more to enjoy...all the same in the end.

 

[backunit]

You're also forgetting the tax credit of $7500. $225k take home income is around $18.75k a month, which is pretty hefty. An $80k car financed with $0 down is like $1200 a month for 72 months. I can't imagine a scenario where taking home $18.75k after taxes is not enough to afford an $80k car.

Yeah I mean you can afford it technically. That is true. You'll just be working until you are dead at that rate.