I keep seeing this rhetoric, and I'd like to know why. You're citing irrelevant (international) data where pricing has not tracked NA market, and the facts are in contradiction to your story. How does the below look like "inventory is growing"? (NA Inventory for MX)They have sold 2023 year's new production for those hopeful to catch the rebates before year's end. Early next year builds go to EMEA so February is the earliest possible new North America builds, i.e., there is zero order backlog, plus the inventory is growing. They will heavily discount the X in 2024 Q1 if they whish to move it.
Outside of the 5 day shutdown that completed in late Sep, there have been no reported interruptions to production. And yet lead times to delivery are growing. Orders on 9/1 initial EDD (after order) was mid-Sep to late-Oct. New orders are early-Dec to mid-Feb 2024. In 1.5 months the lag time from order to estimated delivery has slipped 3-3.5 months. How are you seeing this as a "zero order backlog"?
After the recent earnings call and quarterly reports, Tesla's margins are being questioned, and they have a backlog that is growing by the week (MX specific, NA territory). It makes zero sense to lower prices. Prices are rising and perks are being cut. There's a very small chance we'll see a bone thrown to folks hopeful for a late year delivery for a late Q4 surge, but it's unlikely given that even current orders are probably delivering next CY unless you're in the bay area or SoCAL.
Will they lower prices in the new year based on credit changes and other factors? Maybe, but it certainly won't be this CY. Buyer beware.