Prediction: Model X price will be reduced to $78K in January 2024

[lonnielevi]

I don't tend to find ABRP accurate for charging times overall. Here's what the Tesla trip planner says:


View attachment 1011538

These are more realistic charging times that also provide some buffer in the event you hit traffic for example - and aren't running on fumes with SoC under 20%.


Our destination doesn't have destination chargers unfortunately. BEV chargers in general aren't very common in the North Myrtle Beach area IME - there's literally only one SC station in the entirely of NMB:

View attachment 1011540


We always charge up to 100% before leaving in road trips - but that only helps for the first leg of the trip, and with no destination charging available - it means we have to arrive with some range left.

That'd be an interesting option for sure. IMHO while more range would be nice - I think it would actually be more ideal to have much faster charging times. If we would only have to stop for 5-10 minutes to charge up to 80-90% - that'd alleviate most of our issues on longer road trips and I think it would alleviate most concerns for more traditional automotive buyers as well. It's the 30-45 minute charging stops that scare off most buyers IME.

ABRP is extremely accurate for me, if not a little on the conservative side by default. You can change just about every variable to make it more fitting to how you drive. If you want a higher buffer for every Supercharger stop or want an extra long charge near the end, you can do that.

It can take some time, but I find it part of the fun of traveling these days.

 

[kap.var]

I'm betting you sleep eight hours every day - do you get up every 2-3 hours to go to the bathroom? Even in my early 50's, I sleep through the night just fine without having to do so. Lots of roadtrips we don't stop and if we do - we're in and out within 5-10 minutes. Perhaps we're of German descent with this in mind - but we are destination oriented on roadtrips - we want to get where we're going as quickly as possible - we're not really interested in the journey so to speak. We generally don't have any issues driving straight through on an eight hour road trip - with maybe one quick stop for 5-10 minutes at most at a convenience store like Wawa or Sheetz or Royal Farms.

It's amazing to me how long these supposed stops are that last 20-30 minutes for coffee, pee, and a sandwich pickup. When we do this, we order ahead using our Wawa app - so our food is ready upon arrival - and we're in and out within 5-10 minutes - and if I want to top off the truck - I do so in that same 5-10 minute window. We've literally never spent more than 10 minutes doing this in twenty years of road trips. With kids it's a different story I think, as kids tend to slow things up IME. We have grown children and no longer travel with them as a result - or they drive themselves these days if we're on a family vacation.

Big picture all I'm saying is that I think the more traditional automotive consumer is not going to adapt their habits and preferences like most early adopters have - that's all I'm saying - and I think we'll see a slow down in BEV adoption as a result.

Yes, I do sleep 7-8 hrs a day and no, I don't need to get up every 2-3 hours to go to the bathroom. There is a scientific logic behind that which is, during nighttime, a Human body produces much less urine;

Why Don't You Have to Urinate While You Sleep? - Urology Specialists of Ohio

Learning to control when we go to the bathroom is something everyone has to learn. The good news is, once we learn how to do it, our bodies naturally handle most of the work. This is especially true when we sleep. Throughout the day, the average person has to go to the bathroom every few...

urologyspecialistsofohio.com

For most of the people, we do go to toilet in every 3-4 hours during driving time.

So you park, put the charger in; you walk to the restroom, ask for a coffee, and sandwich, and walk back; its east 20 minutes if not more. You are talking about a scenario when only YOU are in line and picking up an order. At any place, if there 2/3 people in front of you (at Starbucks surely more than 3), no way you can come out in 5 minutes. Wawa coffee sucks anyway so I never stop there.

All in all, charging with bath breaks has always worked for me for past 3 years. Never had any issues; in fact had to run sometimes to remove the charger so I don't pay idle fee.

 

[kap.var]

I don't understand this logic. We do all read these pros and cons. However, I also read from tons of people (like you) who state that they have had no issues with the car so far. I was convinced by the MAJORITY of this forum that the 2023 models were way higher build quality than prior years and there were pretty much no issues. It was not the case for me, after already three service attempts of fixing panel gaps and misalignments, with my bright trim separating from the FWD and almost falling off into the highway after I picked up the car November 2023. The panel gaps are STILL there, and the glass is somewhat protruding from the sides. Sure there's no noise, but all of this just makes me annoyed at the build quality.

Honestly, I was hoping to be in your shoes, but obviously, I'm not. Buying a Tesla SHOULDN'T be the luck of the draw, especially on an $80k vehicle. Keep in mind...it's $80k, which is about 70% higher than the average vehicle's cost in the USA.

If nobody bitches about it, then Tesla won't ever change its behavior or tactics. They'll continue to pass off its current behavior as acceptable as long as they have customers like you.

If people are saying that 2023 Model X's have higher build quality than prior years, then I would hate to be the owner of any Model X prior to 2023.

In that case, I must say you got a car with a few unusual issues. My 3 is 21 built and no issues so far; Y is 23 built no issues. I heard that if there is any alignment issues, Tesla had been very good to fix anything immediately. This, however, should not be the reason to eliminate this masterpiece. I have a friend who bought Hyundai SUV, was very excited. The car control stopped working in 6 days of delivery and after 2 months, they could not fix and had to return money back to him. This, however, does not generalize that ALL Hyundai cars are bad. I encourage you to stick to Tesla. I have had used German (Mercedes GLC 350e), Japanese (Subaru), and Korean cars (accent), and in good length; and by far Tesla is the one which I love the most. No comparisons!!

 

[henderrj]

Big picture all I'm saying is that I think the more traditional automotive consumer is not going to adapt their habits and preferences like most early adopters have - that's all I'm saying - and I think we'll see a slow down in BEV adoption as a result.

A time saver that people don't consider is the standard gas station stop. It's still 5 to 10 minutes. Obviously it varies by person but if that's once a week, and let's go for 10 minutes because it's easy math, that's 500 minutes a year. Even if we cut that in half to 250, that's over 4 hours. I don't know how often you take long trips, but the totality of time involved in going off to the side, turning into the gas station, pumping the gas, running into the store, and then leaving, even if you do it only every other week, is still a few hours. Do you go on that many trips that you save that few hours time?

In fairness it does take 5 to 10 seconds to plug in each night, and not everybody has a garage that they can use, so this isn't true for everyone. But still, seems like an awful big difference.

 

[Xenoilphobe]

I don't understand this logic. We do all read these pros and cons. However, I also read from tons of people (like you) who state that they have had no issues with the car so far. I was convinced by the MAJORITY of this forum that the 2023 models were way higher build quality than prior years and there were pretty much no issues. It was not the case for me, after already three service attempts of fixing panel gaps and misalignments, with my bright trim separating from the FWD and almost falling off into the highway after I picked up the car November 2023. The panel gaps are STILL there, and the glass is somewhat protruding from the sides. Sure there's no noise, but all of this just makes me annoyed at the build quality.

Honestly, I was hoping to be in your shoes, but obviously, I'm not. Buying a Tesla SHOULDN'T be the luck of the draw, especially on an $80k vehicle. Keep in mind...it's $80k, which is about 70% higher than the average vehicle's cost in the USA.

If nobody bitches about it, then Tesla won't ever change its behavior or tactics. They'll continue to pass off its current behavior as acceptable as long as they have customers like you.

If people are saying that 2023 Model X's have higher build quality than prior years, then I would hate to be the owner of any Model X prior to 2023.

Our new X smokes the 2012 Model S I bought back in the day. It costs half as much, and is loaded to the gills with tech. I find it strange that people are comparing a 670HP, luxury SUV that gets 100 MPGe, that has a free charging network (we transferred FUSC), automatic doors, matrix headlights, autopilot, performance, 5 star safety ratings - how many cars allow people to way walk away in a head-on collision without any major issues? , a media interface that allows to have access to the global media on Spotify, TIDAL, Podcasts, Youtube, Netflix etc. to an average car!!!!

I see those average cars everyday in our Tesla rear view mirror at every light, including some that profess to be performance (LOL) and they can't keep up with our "Plebeian" tax edition X that costs $72,490 after point of sale rebate.
I am on my 4th Tesla with a 5th on order and have travelled well over 500K all over North America without ever having range issues. I will most likely never buy another ICE again, nor will any of our kids; daughter 25 - drives a used 3 after she dumped her POS PHEV (Ford Fusion Hybrid) son 22 saving to buy a 3 also, they have zero interest in the dealership experience - especially with FORD.

Here is what I do know, perspective is gained by doing and experiencing, I learned to pre-condition, slow down, stop driving 90 MPH you get there later in a Tesla, if you drive like a JA , draft semi's to almost double my range, max charge before I leave, plan stops at lunch and dinner, enjoy my stops with my family and not measure my success by completing a drive in X hours. I measure my drives on what it costs me, which is zero... I have been from DC to North Bay Canada in the North, as far south as Key West and as far west as Draper Utah.... no issues ever.... and the best is auto pilot, I don't arrive feeling like I am worn out.

Here are the average costs of a mid-sized luxury SUV/Crossover : $69,705 in 2023: Source: Average Price of a New Car in 2024


So I paid $3K more than "average" for the quickest, safest, most advanced car with a nationwide charging network. I'm ok with that cause I make it back my first year of ownership in gas costs (work pays .69 per mile and gives me access to free charging too)....and I don't have to set foot in a stealership.

 

[mathnerd88]

A time saver that people don't consider is the standard gas station stop. It's still 5 to 10 minutes. Obviously it varies by person but if that's once a week, and let's go for 10 minutes because it's easy math, that's 500 minutes a year. Even if we cut that in half to 250, that's over 4 hours. I don't know how often you take long trips, but the totality of time involved in going off to the side, turning into the gas station, pumping the gas, running into the store, and then leaving, even if you do it only every other week, is still a few hours. Do you go on that many trips that you save that few hours time?

In fairness it does take 5 to 10 seconds to plug in each night, and not everybody has a garage that they can use, so this isn't true for everyone. But still, seems like an awful big difference.

This is what I mean when I mentioned that EV's are really good for those who own a home with a garage and use the EV for commuting. However, what you're describing is also perfect for PHEVs.

I can basically commute to work in a PHEV and never have to refill gas, but yet also can use gas for those convenient long road trips. That's why I think PHEV is still the best option compared to BEV. What Americans love is choice, and having a BEV kind of eliminates some options for people. You can also own a PHEV without even needing a charger and still run in hybrid mode as well for those who don't own a garage or home or no access to charger. Win win for everyone.

The only issue with PHEV is really that it costs more than traditional ICE/hybrid vehicle, and it still requires maintenance of one.

 

[mathnerd88]

View attachment 1011614

Thanks for reaffirming this for me. At $80k, a new Tesla Model X in 2023 costs 66% higher than the average cost of a new vehicle.

 

[kap.var]

Thanks for reaffirming this for me. At $80k, a new Tesla Model X in 2023 costs 66% higher than the average cost of a new vehicle.

Those vehicle include majority Japanese and Korean cars, fords, and GMs which are BY FAR not comparable to Tesla by any means.

 

[Xenoilphobe]

Thanks for reaffirming this for me. At $80k, a new Tesla Model X in 2023 costs 66% higher than the average cost of a new vehicle.

Your comparisons and measurement are interesting. and AVERAGE car is not a Tesla... just like a 10 @ 2AM is a 2 @ 10PM. You are comparing a luxury SUV to an average car... or Filet Mignon to Ground Turkey, or an 2013 OPUS One 96 point wine to Blue Raspberry Mad Dog 20/20 or Blue Chips to Nasdaqs & Pink Sheets. They all do the same thing... right?

 

[Tiger]

I don't tend to find ABRP accurate for charging times overall. Here's what the Tesla trip planner says:


View attachment 1011538

These are more realistic charging times that also provide some buffer in the event you hit traffic for example - and aren't running on fumes with SoC under 20%.

Fumes? 20% is 60 miles. It charges faster if you roll in at low SoC. Nevertheless, the estimate looks quite the same, you can reduce some 20 minutes by arriving with 5% which is 15 miles (your backup plan is hypermiling if Tesla navigator estimates it to fall short).

Our destination doesn't have destination chargers unfortunately.

Not even a trickle charge for overnight charging? That might be something you want to fix.

It's the 30-45 minute charging stops that scare off most buyers IME.

Arrive at charger with lower SoC and it will charge faster, and don't charge so high up. I have never charged more than 25min at a single stop since the speed of charging reduces the higher you go.

 

[Tiger]

First 2024 VIN in inventory:

United States Tesla Model X inventory

This is the Model X inventory for cars in United States. The inventory is taken from Tesla directly and refreshed every few minutes, we also explicitly differentiate between New and Demo cars both of which Tesla list as New. In many countries we also gather used cars from various sources. We...

tesla-info.com

Direct link to Tesla inventory page. Countdown has began.

 

[HitchHiker71]

Fumes? 20% is 60 miles. It charges faster if you roll in at low SoC. Nevertheless, the estimate looks quite the same, you can reduce some 20 minutes by arriving with 5% which is 15 miles (your backup plan is hypermiling if Tesla navigator estimates it to fall short).

My point was, if you're stuck in a traffic jam due to an accident for hours worst case, and the vehicle is under 20% charge - the vehicle starts preserving energy (especially once it goes under 10%). It's also a known best practice not to discharge the battery below 20% so we try not to do this as a best practice. I realize you can do so on occasion - and we certainly have - but for the best battery longevity to keep the Soc between 20-80% with an overall average 50% SoC in an ideal world. My wife has range anxiety - even with ICE vehicles she is the type that rarely let the fuel tank go under half a tank for example - so she becomes very uncomfortable whenever we go under 20% charge (the equivalent of 1/5 of a tank of gas).

Not even a trickle charge for overnight charging? That might be something you want to fix.

Not in the parking garage for the resort no, there are no plugs/chargers of any kind currently available unfortunately.

Arrive at charger with lower SoC and it will charge faster, and don't charge so high up. I have never charged more than 25min at a single stop since the speed of charging reduces the higher you go.

I understand - this is very typical - early adopters adapt and mold how they drive according to whatever the best practices are for BEV vehicles - such as driving between 10-60% so as to minimize recharging session times and simply stopping more often. I get it - I'm simply saying that the more traditional automotive consumer - does not get it - and will want to "fill up" as much as possible when recharging. I'm on several F150L forums, and I cannot tell you how often people consistently charge up at home to 100% every day/all of the time (which as we all know is bad for the battery pack longevity), and spend 45-60 minutes or more at public DC chargers to get 90%+ charged up. These are not early adopters - these are more traditional automotive buyers dipping their toes into the BEV pool (kinda like my wife) - and we're seeing quite a few of these F150L owners trade their F150Ls in for hybrid F150s as they don't like the BEV public charging and limited range experiences. I've said the same thing to these owners about only charging up to 60-70% - the answer is largely - yeah - sorry not gonna do that and get stranded on the roadside (whether this is realistic or not).

 

[Tiger]

My point was, if you're stuck in a traffic jam due to an accident for hours worst case, and the vehicle is under 20% charge

You mean the hypothetical situation that this happens right at the doorstep of the chargin station? You said you arrive at charging with 20%.

If you arrive at charging with 5% it means that "while you are on the way to the charger, where something can happen", you will still have that 20%, or if it starts looking doomy and gloomy you have time to change your plans for that special circumstance.

Anyways, happy wife, happy life

Not in the parking garage for the resort no, there are no plugs/chargers of any kind currently available unfortunately.

Maybe a topic to bring up that people like you who can afford to spend might prefer their resort if something like this was available. Hook them up with an electrician.

I understand - this is very typical - early adopters adapt and mold how they drive according to whatever the best practices are for BEV vehicles - such as driving between 10-60% so as to minimize recharging session times and simply stopping more often. I get it - I'm simply saying that the more traditional automotive consumer - does not get it - and will want to "fill up" as much as possible when recharging. I'm on several F150L forums, and I cannot tell you how often people consistently charge up at home to 100% every day/all of the time (which as we all know is bad for the battery pack longevity), and spend 45-60 minutes or more at public DC chargers to get 90%+ charged up. These are not early adopters - these are more traditional automotive buyers dipping their toes into the BEV pool (kinda like my wife) - and we're seeing quite a few of these F150L owners trade their F150Ls in for hybrid F150s as they don't like the BEV public charging and limited range experiences. I've said the same thing to these owners about only charging up to 60-70% - the answer is largely - yeah - sorry not gonna do that and get stranded on the roadside (whether this is realistic or not).

Good point. The cars should do a better job at instructing this, interactively.

 

[mathnerd88]

Those vehicle include majority Japanese and Korean cars, fords, and GMs which are BY FAR not comparable to Tesla by any means.

I'm surprised that everyone is considering Tesla a luxury vehicle, when in my experience, luxury vehicles have much better build quality. In fact, I can argue that the Tesla build quality is worse than the Japanese and Korean brands, even compared to my Ford Mach E GT which I had in 2021.

To me, yes they're not comparable to Tesla, because they have much better build quality. I'll never consider Tesla a 'luxury' vehicle. I'm not sure why everyone here seems to think they are when they're more of a tech company that prioritizes tech before 'luxury' and tries to 'reinvent' the wheel by making their cars less ergonomic, but then try to add on stupid and immature features like fart sounds.

Using two hands to adjust the wiper settings? Poor Auto wipers? Lacking a front bumper camera when everyone else in the $80k SUV category has one? Come on now.

Now just finally adding on a mechanical wheel horn? There's really no need to try to reinvent the wheel that actually worked before. It's just Tesla's latest admission to lacking some basic features that regular cars have.

 

[Super_Popular]

Tesla boast itself as a minimulistic car maker not a luxury car maker.

 

[davenlei]

I'm surprised that everyone is considering Tesla a luxury vehicle, when in my experience, luxury vehicles have much better build quality. In fact, I can argue that the Tesla build quality is worse than the Japanese and Korean brands, even compared to my Ford Mach E GT which I had in 2021.

To me, yes they're not comparable to Tesla, because they have much better build quality. I'll never consider Tesla a 'luxury' vehicle. I'm not sure why everyone here seems to think they are when they're more of a tech company that prioritizes things before 'luxury' and tries to 'reinvent' the wheel by making their cars less ergonomic.

Using two hands to adjust the wiper settings? Poor Auto wipers? Lacking a front bumper camera when everyone else in the $80k SUV category has one? Come on now.

My 2008 Lexus GX470 has much better build quality so I agree with that point but I think people are referring to Tesla (X/S) as luxury because they are the premium level models for Tesla, are fairly feature rich (of course the German brands have cutting edge comfort features but that may be why they have more gremlins), provide very good performance and UX experiences with their interface.

 

[mathnerd88]

Tesla boast itself as a minimulistic car maker not a luxury car maker.

Exactly! Why are people trying to compare this car to a luxury vehicle? It's clearly not.

 

[kap.var]

I'm surprised that everyone is considering Tesla a luxury vehicle, when in my experience, luxury vehicles have much better build quality. In fact, I can argue that the Tesla build quality is worse than the Japanese and Korean brands, even compared to my Ford Mach E GT which I had in 2021.

To me, yes they're not comparable to Tesla, because they have much better build quality. I'll never consider Tesla a 'luxury' vehicle. I'm not sure why everyone here seems to think they are when they're more of a tech company that prioritizes tech before 'luxury' and tries to 'reinvent' the wheel by making their cars less ergonomic, but then try to add on stupid and immature features like fart sounds.

Using two hands to adjust the wiper settings? Poor Auto wipers? Lacking a front bumper camera when everyone else in the $80k SUV category has one? Come on now.

Now just finally adding on a mechanical wheel horn? There's really no need to try to reinvent the wheel that actually worked before.

What I don't understand, why you are here in Tesla group and bitching about Tesla. It is clear you don't like it; sell whatever Tesla you have and get a Ford or any other button car you like and move ON. Who cares what your choices are? We all know about other cars. I have driven German/Japanese/Korean cars and BY FAR did not like it. Most recently before Y, I leased Mercedes GLC 350e and was repenting after 1 year and returned it even before my lease expired.

 

[mathnerd88]

What I don't understand, why you are here in Tesla group and bitching about Tesla. It is clear you don't like it; sell whatever Tesla you have and get a Ford or any other button car you like and move ON. Who cares what your choices are? We all know about other cars. I have driven German/Japanese/Korean cars and BY FAR did not like it. Most recently before Y, I leased Mercedes GLC 350e and was repenting after 1 year and returned it even before my lease expired.

I can't sell it without losing a significant amount of money. I was so excited about the Model X that I even paid for a full PPF on it. Definitely can't sell it now at least for a couple of years.

I'm trying to like my Model X, but it's getting more and more difficult to now that there are more options out there.

 

[Tiger]

Tesla boast itself as a minimulistic car maker not a luxury car maker.

Yes, Elon just confirmed that only Volume matters:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750175136035295498