Press Conference July 17

[thx1139]

Late on Friday is traditional time to announce bad news.

Then it would just be a Press Release after market close.

 

[gjunky]

One more added thought, what about a partnership with another (car) company to share the supercharger network? It is regional and doesn't require showing anything.

 

[bhuwan]

I think it's a delay in the MX

 

[Mike_Schlechter]

My initial thought was this was the case. The patents are open, and there is a parts relationship with Daimler (I thought). That is still my instinct. Also, there is always something snuck in there.

As for not living up to hype... that is not always a fair statement. We create a lot of hype and excitement (exhypement?) that no company can live up to without a time machine.

One more added thought, what about a partnership with another (car) company to share the supercharger network? It is regional and doesn't require showing anything.

 

[JMG]

I think the anticipation and speculation are more interesting than the actual conference call itself.

Kind of like #PrimeDayFail was more entertaining and fulfilling that the actual Amazon Prime Day.

 

[jbcarioca]

Just to mix it up a bit ... during the February earnings call when answering a question about the strength of Model S demand, Elon said he wasn't concerned about buyers stepping up, followed by:



We've never really speculated as to what that might have meant.

That is a really good point. Whether he will offer some cooperation with mega dealers such as AutoNation who've been supportive of Tesla or at least not obstructive is an interesting question, not least because they and their ilk have fixed prices and fixed tradein terms, based on flat wholesale purchase terms. Thus a number of them have quite Tesla-like business practices, at least on the new vehicle purchase side. Interestingly too, although not disclosed Tesla F&I is obviously a profit centre, just as it is for other car dealers pretty much worldwide. The big unknown is how Tesla would approach service both in and out of warranty. The last manufacturer-initiated dealer innovation in the US was with the introduction of Lexus and Infiniti back in 1989, Even that did not do anything about the industry secret dealer pricing negotiations with buyers. The single obviously compatible partner for Tesla is probably AutoNation, which is fulfilling the promise that Lexus and Infiniti wanted but could not achieve of predictable consistent purchase and service terms. Mike Jackson personally has diverged from the traditional car dealer absolute opposition to tesla's direct model. Not really surprising because AutoNation has itself had a battle with traditional dealer groups.

This probably will not be for today's announcement, but I'll happily take wagers that Tesla will be using these high-quality large corporate dealer groups as soon as volumes reach ~100,000 units per year in a single country. At current expectations that ought to happen just prior to Model III launch. It would be entirely consistent to see Tesla spin off retail sales and service at about that time, when volumes become adequate to support an independent national structure. Then somebody like AutoNation could become a strategic specialist partner, much in the same vein as Panasonic now is for batteries. There is precedent for that sort of scheme working.

Disclosure: I have worked in auto manufacturer distribution strategy and policy development on behalf of several high end auto manufacturers. My opinions are based on that experience. It is quite possible that my experience makes me unduly biased in favour of some sort of indirect distribution system. My logic is that I cannot imagine beating Texas and Michigan in direct attack on their very wealthy and politically active dealer groups. Those two states are also crucial to Tesla mid-term plans. Almost all other states have less concentration among a small number of traditional state-dominant political contributor dealers. Both of those states also have long histories of deference to local corporate interests. Both also have major traditional car industry ICE-age preservationists from Exxon-Mobil to GM, Ford, VWoA and Fiat-Chrysler. Can all those guys outmanoeuvre Tesla?

 

[sandpiper]

My prediction: It's going to be something underwhelming that doesn't live up to any of the hype at all. Not Model X, not autopilot. *shrugs*

You're just a ray of sunshine aren't you? Don't you realize that the speculation (wild though it may be) is most of the fun?

 

[Krugerrand]

As for not living up to hype... that is not always a fair statement. We create a lot of hype and excitement (exhypement?) that no company can live up to without a time machine.

Agreed. As well a lot of times people simply don't understand the implications. Case in point, when SuperCharger Network and GigaFactory were first mentioned it was a bunch of crickets and took several months for people to wrap their brains around what those really meant. Even now the mention of increased land holdings for GigaFactory hasn't really been grasped. It's being mostly fluffed off, when what it really means is that Tesla already has planned to increase battery production substantially. And all BEFORE they've even produced one single cell. That's huge.

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My logic is that I cannot imagine beating Texas and Michigan in direct attack on their very wealthy and politically active dealer groups. Those two states are also crucial to Tesla mid-term plans. Almost all other states have less concentration among a small number of traditional state-dominant political contributor dealers. Both of those states also have long histories of deference to local corporate interests. Both also have major traditional car industry ICE-age preservationists from Exxon-Mobil to GM, Ford, VWoA and Fiat-Chrysler. Can all those guys outmanoeuvre Tesla?

Don't agree. Texas and Michigan will fall to the pressure of the people when Model 3 gets rolling. Tesla won't have to do anything. In the meantime, there will be plenty of people wanting Model 3 and Tesla will be sold out of it for at least the first few years.

 

[Bet TSLA]

The whole CPO thing hasn't been talked about much publicly. This seems like a good time. It's exciting but not that important. It has regional implications. Seems like a good topic for a phone-in press conference.

 

[physicsfita]

Don't agree. Texas and Michigan will fall to the pressure of the people when Model 3 gets rolling. Tesla won't have to do anything. In the meantime, there will be plenty of people wanting Model 3 and Tesla will be sold out of it for at least the first few years.

As a Michigander, I unfortunately doubt that the legislature will cave to the people on this one. One of the legislators I know personally is an extremely hard-core free-market libertarian, and even he caved to the dealers. The only legislator who voted against the Tesla ban was a person who had run out of terms and was stepping down from politics. I think it's going to take a federal court order to get any traction here. (Or possibly, Tesla threatening to require that all its suppliers manufacture their goods in states that let them sell -- that *might* be enough leverage once Tesla is the size of one of the major manufacturers.)

 

[Doug_G]

Edit: <13> snip!

14 pages of random speculation and counting. Let's ramp it up, guys, only a few hours left!

(My post wrapped onto the next page)

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

13 pages of random speculation and counting. Let's ramp it up, guys, only a few hours left!

really I think this 'should' be the X configuration announcement

could be the 100,000 Tesla vehicles sold milestone

 

[Grant Gerke]

That's my guess, too...7.0 update or autopilot...or both.

 

[30seconds]

I'm going with 100,000 Model S orders, some updates / status on Nav, LTE, and maybe more colors

 

[O-G]

Just to mix it up a bit ... during the February earnings call when answering a question about the strength of Model S demand, Elon said he wasn't concerned about buyers stepping up, followed by:



We've never really speculated as to what that might have meant.

I thought the CPO program was his secret demand weapon. No?

 

[jbcarioca]

As a Michigander, I unfortunately doubt that the legislature will cave to the people on this one. One of the legislators I know personally is an extremely hard-core free-market libertarian, and even he caved to the dealers. The only legislator who voted against the Tesla ban was a person who had run out of terms and was stepping down from politics. I think it's going to take a federal court order to get any traction here. (Or possibly, Tesla threatening to require that all its suppliers manufacture their goods in states that let them sell -- that *might* be enough leverage once Tesla is the size of one of the major manufacturers.)

Frankly I think we need a specific thread for the recidivist states. I agree about Michigan, and think Texas is in the same condition despite Rick Perry making optimistic statements when bidding for the Gigafactory. He would not have managed it anyway.

 

[Curt Renz]

Just to mix it up a bit ... during the February earnings call when answering a question about the strength of Model S demand, Elon said he wasn't concerned about buyers stepping up, followed by:

"I have a secret weapon on the demand side and might release a good weapon against the dealers."

We've never really speculated as to what that might have meant.

Good point, Bonnie. As nh-srt8 suggested earlier in this thread, it could mean a federal lawsuit against a state blocking interstate commerce.

 

[satheesh.net]

I haven't read through all the pages, but does anyone have a link to the live webcast for today?

 

[Lawsteve]

Announcing his candidacy for President.........

 

[Hogfighter]

I hope it's the GF expansion due to orders for stationary storage. I fear that it's something mundane, that should have just been released without hype (version 7.0).

- - - Updated - - -

Just to mix it up a bit ... during the February earnings call when answering a question about the strength of Model S demand, Elon said he wasn't concerned about buyers stepping up, followed by:



We've never really speculated as to what that might have meant.

Respectfully, we speculated for 36 pages about this:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/42492-Elon-s-demand-secret-weapon-what-is-it