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Q2 2017 Delivery Estimates

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by EinSV, May 21, 2017.

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What is your Estimate for Q2 2017 Deliveries

Poll closed Jul 2, 2017.
  1. Over 29,000

    1.8%
  2. 27,001-29,000

    6.4%
  3. 25,001-27,000

    40.0%
  4. 23,001-25,000

    36.4%
  5. 21,001-23,000

    9.1%
  6. 19,001-21,000

    3.6%
  7. 17,001-19,000

    1.8%
  8. 17,000 or less

    0.9%
  1. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    Please enter your estimates for Q2 2017 S/X delivery and production. OK to update as we get closer to the end of the quarter.

    I'll start:
    26,400 deliveries
    27,200 production
     
    • Like x 1
  2. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Active Member

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    25,000 deliveries
    25,000 production

    I repeat: this is not important to the intrinsic value of Tesla. Bears use quarterly delivery numbers to create downside volatility quarter after quarter.
     
  3. T3slaTulips

    T3slaTulips Member

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    #3 T3slaTulips, May 21, 2017
    Last edited: May 21, 2017
    22,000 deliveries
    24,500 production

    No VIN counts in this guess, purely a wild guess based off 3 points:
    1. Q1's 25,000+ included overhang of 2,000 (stuck on boat in China) from Q4. [so really 23k+]
    2. Elon Musk stating the Model 3 name was causing confusion about it being the next generation/better.
    3. Reintroduction of free Supercharging as a demand lever. (I've seen a nice counterpoint to this as someone mentioned this could be to generate goodwill as Model S/X switch to 21-70's with either better range, faster charging, or both!)
     
  4. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    Location:
    Delaware
    Production 26,000
    Deliveries. 22,500


    Reason: production rolling along well but many cars going into the loaner program and inventory growing on the lots. That is ok by me as in the long run it is good to have some inventory available for those looking for immediate deliveries as that is what much of the buying public is accustomed.
     
  5. Spidy

    Spidy Active Member

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    Production 26000
    Deliveries. 20500

    I disagree. I think we have reached a peak and now the question is if Tesla can keep this level of sales or if they maybe drop off.
     
  6. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Member

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    26.200 delivery
    26.800 production
    S and X only, I am not counting the 'not for sale' M3 production

    This is just for fun, I have no special insight.
     
  7. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    23 000 delivered 25 000 produced.
     
    • Helpful x 1
    • Like x 1
  8. dc_h

    dc_h Active Member

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    Anecdotally, I've seen more new Modrl X's lately, including neighbors across the street. I think it likely that sales are softer coming up to model 3 production, but maybe they are just getting a little more production from the three shifts? I voted 23-25, but hopefully I've got the under. If they are selling 80% of production and shipping 20% for inventory sales and running at capacity, they should build 27,500 to 32,500 assuming they are at 2500 a week.
     
  9. TMSE

    TMSE Member

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    Location:
    Seattle
    Production: 27000
    Deliveries: 24500
     
  10. sundaymorning

    sundaymorning Active Member

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    Most definitely the dominant high end SUV in southern CA. More than I can count as well.
     
    • Like x 2
  11. D-egg-O

    D-egg-O Member

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    I predict a about 26,000 delivered to show a total of about 51,000 delivered 1H 2017 to put salt on the wound to the FUDders. I don't think they'll give a solid production number.
     
  12. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    25300 delivered
    27950 produced
     
  13. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    OK, I am upping my bet. Previously I voted 23-25k, but now I've changed it to the next bracket, 25-27k.

    The first 2 months of Q2 have been stellar: in the US we are 1k above and in Europe we are in line with the Q1 quarter-to-date numbers. Asia (or ROW) is a dark horse, as usual, but barring some unseen disaster in production or deliveries over the next 2 weeks, Q1 numbers look like the floor for Q2.

    So with that, my guess is: 25,999 deliveries and 26,999 production.

    Get ready for the one-two punch in July, with announcing record deliveries and startup of Model 3 production.
     
    • Like x 5
  14. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    Q2 Vins so far for MS/MX (as of 6/13)
    12100 9030

    Prod (MS/MX)
    12100 11500 = 23600
    Delivery
    12400 10100 = 22500 (47,500 for H1)

    I have to think possibly a few Model 3 "Production" cars are delivered to employees by June 30 to be included in the Q2 ER as news. Hong Kong should be stagnant for Q2 due to the push in Q1. China is an outlier.
     
    • Informative x 1
  15. dc_h

    dc_h Active Member

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    Is 22500 your Q2 estimate, or Q2 to date.
     
  16. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    For the quarter. Only "to date" that I have is Vin #s.
    Q1 was a "fantastic" beat of estimates based on Hong Kong and China activity. But does it match Denmark in how it blossomed and died after the incentive loss or not, depends on whether the ordering trend goes to Model 3 now or stays with MX/MS later in the year.
     
  17. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    A "fantastic" beat of whose estimates? Your estimate?
     
    • Funny x 1
  18. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    People like Ben Kallo, for one. He was at 23,000 for Q1. And he's a "Pro-level" analyst
     
  19. Out4aDuck

    Out4aDuck Member

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    My numbers are the same as Schonelucht. I expect production to be the same as last quarter, but deliveries down due to the Hong Kong effect and sales competition from an increasing number of CVO's.
     
  20. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    To confirm, cpos would hurt and not help deliveries right? Wouldn't surprise me if a thousand were sold based on cars I looked at not for sale.

    Hundreds of cars shipped to Dubai. I think those could have all been pre sold.

    Do they register for Q2 deliveries?
     

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